LD Aron Kiviharju - TPS, FIN JRS (2024 Draft)

[armyjoe]

he got almost walked atleast twice against Sweden and it wasnt because of a mistake of his teammate leading to him being flat footed. dunno if it is inexperience of that kind of speed or lack of backwards skating ability

 

[Ippenator]

he got almost walked atleast twice against Sweden and it wasnt because of a mistake of his teammate leading to him being flat footed. dunno if it is inexperience of that kind of speed or lack of backwards skating ability

There’s a huge difference with something happening or ALMOST happening…

 

[armyjoe]

douple post

 

[BusQuets]

he got almost walked atleast twice against Sweden and it wasnt because of a mistake of his teammate leading to him being flat footed. dunno if it is inexperience of that kind of speed or lack of backwards skating ability

Kiviharju's skating is definitely lacking. Hopefully it is just lack of power because he looked down right slow at times.

 

[ijuka]

he got almost walked atleast twice against Sweden and it wasnt because of a mistake of his teammate leading to him being flat footed. dunno if it is inexperience of that kind of speed or lack of backwards skating ability

A defenseman getting walked doesn't mean the defenseman played poorly at the tournament - even NHL defensemen get walked, even elite ones.

Then, that even is "almost". So he didn't even get walked?

 

[Ippenator]

Kiviharju's skating is definitely lacking. Hopefully it is just lack of power because he looked down right slow at times.

Skating speed is mostly about physical issues. If you are an underager it is obvious that you will not be able to compete with two years older players with your straight line speed. It’s all about physics really. He hasn’t even started doing any real intensive physical training yet, so when they start training him more physically, there should be a big change in his straight line speed. Technically his skating is very good, so I don’t see any problems with it in the future. Most probably it will be one of his biggest strengths when he is a full grown adult player.

Of course his biggest strength is and will probably always be his exceptional hockey IQ and passing skills, and as both of those are the most important skills in hockey, he will become a excellent player anyway. But if he will be able to become physically clearly stronger and improve his straight line speed and his shooting (his biggest weaknesses in fact in my opinion), then he has the chance to develop into an exceptional world class defenceman.

 

[ijuka]

According to data Kiviharju and Kulonummi have been most reliable and dominant players of team Finland at group stage. Calling Kiviharju green based on couple of plays, while he have been most reliable player of that team finland defence is bold statement especially when data proves otherwise and by my personal eye test, i’m not suprised about the results.

Finnish article:

Datahavainnot Pikkuleijonien alkusarjasta: Kulonummi ja Kiviharju dominoivat kaikkia tilastoja, Kemelliltä ja Salinilta odotetaan enemmän - EP Rinkside FI

EP Rinkside Suomen Lassi Alanen kokoaa merkittävimmät tilastohavainnot Pikkuleijonien alkusarjasta. Puolustajista ykköspari nousee selvästi muiden yli, hyökkääjien osalta tilanne on tasapainoisempi.

fi.eprinkside.com

Indeed. Translating the title "Kulonummi and Kiviharju dominate every statistic". Those are statistics, not eye test or anything subjective. At the time, they had around 80% corsi.

Kiviharju's skating is definitely lacking. Hopefully it is just lack of power because he looked down right slow at times.

He had knee surgery and missed the entire last season. Do you think that that affects a player's skating? I find it strange people don't take that into account. Missing the entire season, and missing tons of time on rehab. You think he was playing 100% this season?

Think about Patrik Laine in 14-15 after similar injury and surgery. He was so much slower than he was in 15-16. You don't recover overnight.

Another thing is, he was not slow in seasons prior. So to me it's strange, when given these two options:
1. His knee injury affected him and he's not 100%
2. He's suddenly become a much worse skater relative to his peers

People think #2 is more likely of the two. But what can be expected out of people who only followed him for this season. I wonder how many people even knew he had a knee injury?

 

[emptyNedder]

Where are your rankings and scouting reports, mock drafts, podcasts, etc with all your draft takes from 2015-2022?

Steve--this is not directed at you. Rather, my interest/concern is, shall we say, epistemological. I have read and listened to much of your output. You do an excellent job and supply lots of details for your views. However, I don't think you have ever supplied a method that can be replicated by others--in effect, you provide very educated guesses. The original post you responded to used "guess" in a snarky way, but it was true nonetheless. All scouts are guessing--the only exception to this that I can think of is NHLe, which doesn't seem to be either very accurate or to have been subject to any Bayesian updates.

Again, this is not to single you out. Will Scouch is in the habit of saying one prospect is objectively better than another, when what he means is that any type of educated guess will support the conclusion. Scouching and almost all scouts do data collection, but as far as I know there is no single score, other than the aforementioned NHLe, by which to evaluate prospects. All this is to say that projecting which 17-year-old will succeed in the NHL is extremely difficult and, at the moment, almost totally subjective.

Some have better guesses/opinions than others based on knowledge and effort--you certainly do.

 

[bigdog16]

Indeed. Translating the title "Kulonummi and Kiviharju dominate every statistic". Those are statistics, not eye test or anything subjective. At the time, they had around 80% corsi.


He had knee surgery and missed the entire last season. Do you think that that affects a player's skating? I find it strange people don't take that into account. Missing the entire season, and missing tons of time on rehab. You think he was playing 100% this season?

Think about Patrik Laine in 14-15 after similar injury and surgery. He was so much slower than he was in 15-16. You don't recover overnight.

Another thing is, he was not slow in seasons prior. So to me it's strange, when given these two options:
1. His knee injury affected him and he's not 100%
2. He's suddenly become a much worse skater relative to his peers

People think #2 is more likely of the two. But what can be expected out of people who only followed him for this season. I wonder how many people even knew he had a knee injury?

I noted that he lacked explosiveness before this tournament started and you called me an idiot and told me I had no idea what I was talking about….

All I can do is laugh….

 

[HockeyHistorian]

Kiviharju looked so poised throughout the tournament that he looked like a vet when he was in fact younger than anyone else in the whole tournament. I especially liked how he played in his own end under pressure, he never looked like he was in a hurry. Definitely showed his hockey sense. It's true that he is not that fast, but I'm sure that will improve once he gets some strength.

 

[wetcoast]

Even Switzerland has a first overall pick while Finland doesn't. And while Slovakia doesn't have one, Czechoslovakia does so Slovakia might as well have one. So literally every other relevant hockey nation has had a first overall pick.

Well, this year is a pretty good one for one regardless. 2022 had an exceptional status player, 2023 obviously has a Bedard. 2025 has Misa if he's good(too soon)? 2024 on the other hand doesn't have any exceptional status players and relatively little hype. Even other European prospects I've not heard a ton of hype for for 2024.

Hype and how guys develop in 2 years is different though.

Some other guys will challenge Kiviharju for the top pick in 24 and we can all sit back and watch.

Catton and Celebrini are 2 of the guys to watch and Demidov has had some hype as well.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Steve--this is not directed at you. Rather, my interest/concern is, shall we say, epistemological. I have read and listened to much of your output. You do an excellent job and supply lots of details for your views. However, I don't think you have ever supplied a method that can be replicated by others--in effect, you provide very educated guesses. The original post you responded to used "guess" in a snarky way, but it was true nonetheless. All scouts are guessing--the only exception to this that I can think of is NHLe, which doesn't seem to be either very accurate or to have been subject to any Bayesian updates.

Again, this is not to single you out. Will Scouch is in the habit of saying one prospect is objectively better than another, when what he means is that any type of educated guess will support the conclusion. Scouching and almost all scouts do data collection, but as far as I know there is no single score, other than the aforementioned NHLe, by which to evaluate prospects. All this is to say that projecting which 17-year-old will succeed in the NHL is extremely difficult and, at the moment, almost totally subjective.

Some have better guesses/opinions than others based on knowledge and effort--you certainly do.

It’s all eye test, gut feeling, and guessing. I always tell people to either like it or move on. I have made many mistakes and admit them.

That zero saved a post from 2017 to try and make a point, when in fact I openly mock myself for ranking Makar low in the beginning for using UMass being a party school as one of the reasons.

My analysis of Kiviharju is fair and objective.

 

[JabbaJabba]

It’s all eye test, gut feeling, and guessing. I always tell people to either like it or move on. I have made many mistakes and admit them.

That zero saved a post from 2017 to try and make a point, when in fact I openly mock myself for ranking Makar low in the beginning for using UMass being a party school as one of the reasons.

My analysis of Kiviharju is fair and objective.

How is your analysis objective if it's based on eye test, gut feeling and guessing?

 

[ijuka]

Hype and how guys develop in 2 years is different though.

Some other guys will challenge Kiviharju for the top pick in 24 and we can all sit back and watch.

Catton and Celebrini are 2 of the guys to watch and Demidov has had some hype as well.

Berkly Catton is the earliest foreign 2006 I became familiar of, that was in 2018. Still, it is a bit fishy to me that all of these current top prospects - Catton, Celebrini, Eiserman - are on Shattuck St. Mary's. And when we remember how Maddox Fleming from there went from being essentially a potential top 5 pick for 2022 to a possible not-to-be-drafted player over the course of 2 years, I'd certainly like to see how they do somewhere else first.

My analysis of Kiviharju is fair and objective.

Weird how it goes against what just about everyone else's saying, but perhaps you're smarter than everyone else and we'll look stupid in 2 years. I guess that's the third possibility when you're disagreeing with everyone else.

 

[Steve Kournianos]

Berkly Catton is the earliest foreign 2006 I became familiar of, that was in 2018. Still, it is a bit fishy to me that all of these current top prospects - Catton, Celebrini, Eiserman - are on Shattuck St. Mary's. And when we remember how Maddox Fleming from there went from being essentially a potential top 5 pick for 2022 to a possible not-to-be-drafted player over the course of 2 years, I'd certainly like to see how they do somewhere else first.


Weird how it goes against what just about everyone else's saying, but perhaps you're smarter than everyone else and we'll look stupid in 2 years. I guess that's the third possibility when you're disagreeing with everyone else.

All I said was that he looked green in the defensive end and you got triggered because you’re Finnish and have been trumpeting him as a potential No. 1 pick. Nothing wrong with seeing the pros and cons, and in two years, he may very well be a lock for No. 1. But he wasn’t dominant by any stretch, made mistakes every game that led to scoring chances, turned pucks over under pressure, and looked slow. You yourself admitted he played better in league play because the competition was tougher, etc etc.

And stop with the “everybody else says so…” bullshit. I don’t care what others think, especially when most on this board just statwatch anyway. If I’m right, I’m right. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. World keeps spinning regardless.

I mean, please. Want me to pull up all your bullshit about Hughes that went on for two years, when EVERYBODY said he’d eventually be a star? Or the crap you gave me for being the ONLY guy to put Svechnikov ahead of Dahlin?

Take a lap.

 

[Zub]

All I said was that he looked green in the defensive end and you got triggered because you’re Finnish and have been trumpeting him as a potential No. 1 pick. Nothing wrong with seeing the pros and cons, and in two years, he may very well be a lock for No. 1. But he wasn’t dominant by any stretch, made mistakes every game that led to scoring chances, turned pucks over under pressure, and looked slow. You yourself admitted he played better in league play because the competition was tougher, etc etc.

And stop with the “everybody else says so…” bullshit. I don’t care what others think, especially when most on this board just statwatch anyway. If I’m right, I’m right. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. World keeps spinning regardless.

I mean, please. Want me to pull up all your bullshit about Hughes that went on for two years, when EVERYBODY said he’d eventually be a star? Or the crap you gave me for being the ONLY guy to put Svechnikov ahead of Dahlin?

Take a lap.

Cmon man, i meam he wasn't defensively perfect but it wasn't like he made THAT many mistakes even, defensively he did very well imho and offensively even more so, and he just turned 16 and finished the tournament with a PPG, he did look slow though.

 

[William H Bonney]

He was impressive given his age. My main worry about him was his skating wasn't impressive at all. Will be interesting to see if that catches up to him if he doesn't get much bigger.

 

[Hntz]

I was kind of dissapointed with his speed tbh. Hopefully it gets better as he grows. Hockey IQ, puck skills and poise are definitely there, and he seems like a very promising prospect.

 

[thomast]

All I said was that he looked green in the defensive end and you got triggered because you’re Finnish and have been trumpeting him as a potential No. 1 pick. Nothing wrong with seeing the pros and cons, and in two years, he may very well be a lock for No. 1. But he wasn’t dominant by any stretch, made mistakes every game that led to scoring chances, turned pucks over under pressure, and looked slow. You yourself admitted he played better in league play because the competition was tougher, etc etc.

And stop with the “everybody else says so…” bullshit. I don’t care what others think, especially when most on this board just statwatch anyway. If I’m right, I’m right. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. World keeps spinning regardless.

I mean, please. Want me to pull up all your bullshit about Hughes that went on for two years, when EVERYBODY said he’d eventually be a star? Or the crap you gave me for being the ONLY guy to put Svechnikov ahead of Dahlin?

Take a lap.

Still data proves otherwise like i linked on other post, that you ignored. He was clearly best and most reliable D with Kulonummi in almost every offensive and defensive category. Minkkinen in the otherhand who you praised were the worst and had most trouble in the defensive zone. He eventually got benched by coaching staff at one point. Finnish coaching staff ranked Kiviharju in top 3 player for team Finland in this tournament. He was highest scoring finnish D despite of playing on #2 PP.

I don’t know what games have you watched, but he wasn’t green defensively. Yes, he made some mistakes, but he did least mistakes of Finnish D and that is impressive for U16 player in this level of play. Well for a U16 D he had record breaking performance, not just a good showing.

 

[Backcheckmonster3]

All I said was that he looked green in the defensive end and you got triggered because you’re Finnish and have been trumpeting him as a potential No. 1 pick. Nothing wrong with seeing the pros and cons, and in two years, he may very well be a lock for No. 1. But he wasn’t dominant by any stretch, made mistakes every game that led to scoring chances, turned pucks over under pressure, and looked slow. You yourself admitted he played better in league play because the competition was tougher, etc etc.

And stop with the “everybody else says so…” bullshit. I don’t care what others think, especially when most on this board just statwatch anyway. If I’m right, I’m right. If I’m wrong, I’m wrong. World keeps spinning regardless.

I mean, please. Want me to pull up all your bullshit about Hughes that went on for two years, when EVERYBODY said he’d eventually be a star? Or the crap you gave me for being the ONLY guy to put Svechnikov ahead of Dahlin?

Take a lap.

Luckily you don´t work for a team for real right? Just a talking head...

BTW, creds for venturing this jungle.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Berkly Catton is the earliest foreign 2006 I became familiar of, that was in 2018. Still, it is a bit fishy to me that all of these current top prospects - Catton, Celebrini, Eiserman - are on Shattuck St. Mary's. And when we remember how Maddox Fleming from there went from being essentially a potential top 5 pick for 2022 to a possible not-to-be-drafted player over the course of 2 years, I'd certainly like to see how they do somewhere else first.


Weird how it goes against what just about everyone else's saying, but perhaps you're smarter than everyone else and we'll look stupid in 2 years. I guess that's the third possibility when you're disagreeing with everyone else.

Fleming is a lock to be drafted. He’ll go no later than round 3-4.

 

[Juxtaposer]

It’s all eye test, gut feeling, and guessing. I always tell people to either like it or move on. I have made many mistakes and admit them.

That zero saved a post from 2017 to try and make a point, when in fact I openly mock myself for ranking Makar low in the beginning for using UMass being a party school as one of the reasons.

My analysis of Kiviharju is fair and objective.

I’m sorry, but how is your analysis objective if it’s based on gut feeling and guessing? That’s literally the opposite of objective. And saying “like it or move on” is some kinda really funny “do as I say not as I do” advice.

In fact, I have some advice for you: knock off this “zero” and “take a lap” nonsense, especially when you depend on the posters on this site to give you clicks.

 

[Kaako Kappo]

There's so much good in his game, it seems weird to me to hone in on a few mistakes a 16 year old made. For his age, Kivi already plays a more mature game than most. It's rare to find him out of position. He doesn't panic under pressure, is very good at outlet passing and passing in general and uses deception very well. He's not a fast skater, but he is slippery like an eel. I also like his shot, it's a short windup wrister that finds its way to the goal a lot more often than not, a bit like Klingberg's shot.

Very good, solid base to develop on. Worst I've got to say is he's not physically there yet, but he's not supposed to be.

I also never understood when it comes to defensemen this criticism of "he got walked by x in this and this game" or something similar. That's just normal stuff that happens to even the best players, so unless it happens multiple times in every game, it seems redundant to even bring it up

 

[thomast]

I also never understood when it comes to defensemen this criticism of "he got walked by x in this and this game" or something similar. That's just normal stuff that happens to even the best players, so unless it happens multiple times in every game, it seems redundant to even bring it up

Yeah, but it makes it crazier when people criticizes when he ALMOST got walked couple of times. Of course healthy conversation about pros and cons in his game is cool, but some of these takes about his tournament are pretty inaccurate and not objective.

 

[karhukissa]

Yeah, but it makes it crazier when people criticizes when he ALMOST got walked couple of times. Of course healthy conversation about pros and cons in his game is cool, but some of these takes about his tournament are pretty inaccurate and not objective.

Rasmus Dahlin got walked for 1 and half years straight and he was still considered one of the best young d-men in the NHL, Kiviharju got almost walked couple of times as a 16 year old so i wouldn't overreact.

Skating and explosiveness is something that can take huge leaps during one summer but hockey IQ you either have or don't, you can't hire Lidström to mentor you about how he sees the game and then mimic it.

With amazing IQ you don't have many limits as a hockey player. Sebastian Aho developed into one of the best NHL centers because of his IQ, Barkov looks like a ballerina on ice even though he was never considered a good skater as a prospect. IQ>Everything else.