Prospect Info: All-Purpose 2024 Draft Thread & Celebrini discussion (also the 14th pick and whatever else is draft related)

[Pinkfloyd]

If none of the D are there at 14, and the org isn’t high on Helenius, MBN, or Sennecke (or simply rate them all evenly) I’d want them to move back 3-5 spots and pick up the extra 2nd. They may still end up with one of those guys, or Solberg/Emery, and any extra swings in the 40-60 range seem like something a rebuilding team should be taking advantage of.

Possibly. I don't know that I'd agree with the assessment of not being that high on those players but getting an extra 2nd for 3-5 spots would only be useful to me if we then took it with 42 or 33 to move up because I don't really see non-complete lottery prospects past 40.

 

[TheBeard]

Ekblad, Reinhart and Bennett were universally seen as the top-3 in that draft, the Oilers reached for Draisaitl, they deserve credit on that one


What do you mean by this?

No aspersions cast, I legitimately don't understand what you're saying so I am hoping you don't mind explaining

Do you mean picking a bunch of forwards?

More like neglecting defense. During that era of them picking high they were continually in the bottom 5 in goals against and rarely addressed the position. Even after the year they drafted Connor (which had made it 8 forwards in a span of 9 years), they still continued to address forward by drafting Puuljarvi at 4 and then the next year they STILL continued going F-heavy drafting Yamamoto. It's not as if they ever went out and addressed the position in FA uness you want to include the ghost of Duncan Keith or trading for Larrsson.

It's no surprise that position still continues to plague them

 

[jMoneyBrah]

Possibly. I don't know that I'd agree with the assessment of not being that high on those players but getting an extra 2nd for 3-5 spots would only be useful to me if we then took it with 42 or 33 to move up because I don't really see non-complete lottery prospects past 40.

I think my phrasing was weird: what I was trying to say was IF the org isn’t as high on those players and the top 6 D are gone.

I like moving up with the additional pick too, but even if it ends up being a lottery ticket those are okay too. More swings in the top 60 are a good thing.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

I think my phrasing was weird: what I was trying to say was IF the org isn’t as high on those players and the top 6 D are gone.

I like moving up with the additional pick too, but even if it ends up being a lottery ticket those are okay too. More swings in the top 60 are a good thing.

No, I think you're phrasing was perfectly fine. Not agreeing with that assessment was under the impression of the team having those sentiments like you said. I agree that more swings are a good thing in that range but I feel more confident in the odds at 14 than I do at 18. I just don't think another swing in what seems like a lottery pick range in this draft is worth it even if it's best used moving up from 42.

 

[weastern bias]

More like neglecting defense. During that era of them picking high they were continually in the bottom 5 in goals against and rarely addressed the position. Even after the year they drafted Connor (which had made it 8 forwards in a span of 9 years), they still continued to address forward by drafting Puuljarvi at 4 and then the next year they STILL continued going F-heavy drafting Yamamoto. It's not as if they ever went out and addressed the position in FA uness you want to include the ghost of Duncan Keith or trading for Larrsson.

It's no surprise that position still continues to plague them

Thank you for clarifying

I also have anxieties about our D prospect pool, it's terrible, but we're so early in the rebuild and so thin at every position as far as prospect depth (even center needs every big name we have to hit to be passable) that I hope the org is just going BPA based on their board regardless of position

I would definitely hope we get an impact D at 14 or move up to get one earlier, but if the move isn't there and all the defensemen our scouts really like are gone at 14 I'd prefer they take a forward with higher potential rather than reaching just to fill a position of need, the way I see it EVERY position is currently a position of need

 

[zombie kopitar]

They have enough ammo to do one of two things: move up from 14 to get a D-man or package 33 and 42 to get a d-man, but there is absolutely no reason not to end up with three 1sts in this draft if there are particular guys they want and they want to be aggressive to make sure they get them. Missing out on someone because Grier wanted to outsmart everyone by getting the 41st ranked Finnish d-man at 42 would leave a bitter taste.

Until he turns into Brent Seabrookenen

 

[TheBeard]

Until he turns into Brent Seabrookenen

Bjork Seabrekken

 

[coooldude]

Just to try to continue to baseline everyone on the public lists that matter the most (seemingly - pronman, whose final ranking is out, and MacKenzie, whose isn't yet... Both of these guys respected currently as having a lot of front office connections)

Last year, "Bubble top and middle of the lineup player" tier included: 11 Leonard, Perreault, Honzek, Wood, Willander, Yager, Benson, Edstrom, Moore, 20 Barlow. Musty was the first player in the next tier "middle of lineup player."

The tier above, "top of the lineup player," went 6 Reinbacher, Danielson, Dvorsky, But, 10 Simashev.

Meanwhile, Mackenzie had Leonard at 6, Reinbacher at 8, then Benson and Perreault, and Simashev T at 19.

This year, we can't underestimate the distortion happening because of 6 very good D prospects. Pronman has "top of the lineup player" starting at 9 parekh, Lindstrom, Dickinson. The other 4 top D are higher, and pushing everyone Else down in the number rankings.

Meanwhile "bubble top and middle of lineup" goes 12 Solberg, Iginla, Helenius, Jiricek, Eiserman, MBN, Chernyshov.

So comparing the two years, he's ranking Solberg/Jiricek just below Reinbacher and Simashev and he's ranking them with MBN, iginla, Helenius, Eiserman, and Chernyshov in the same tier as Leonard, Perreault, Edstrom, Benson.

Which is basically to say that an equivalent D to solberg/jiricek is being taken 10-15 last year. They're not the 7-8 ranked D in a regular year. I feel like a broken record with trying to break people out of this BPA or "I'm not excited about any of these players at 14" thing. MBN is like Leonard, at least according to Pronman, and these D are pretty solid but not quite at the same tier as Simashev or Reinbacher.

I'm just trying to get ahead of everyone melting down if we pick D at 14.