Prospect Info: C Noah Ostlund, 16th Overall, 2022 NHL Draft, Assigned to Rochester 4.17.24

[Der Jaeger]

You can teach adding weight though, and he needs it big.

If he plays in Rochester next season, he'll get the support.

 

[MOGlLNY]

what the hell are they doing over in Sweden that this kid is 20 and still 165 pounds

 

[Gabrielor]

If he plays in Rochester next season, he'll get the support.

I saw the flashes, I acknowledge what you guys see, but I still need that to translate into raw production.

I've seen that from Savoie, despite what feels like a week where everyone's arbitrarily down on him.

I've seen that from Kulich who's ahead of the curve on both, but I'm less certain on the ceiling.

I need to see this magical natural center everyone's bigged up for 2 years do more than this:

 

[Der Jaeger]

I saw the flashes, I acknowledge what you guys see, but I still need that to translate into raw production.

I've seen that from Savoie, despite what feels like a week where everyone's arbitrarily down on him.

I've seen that from Kulich who's ahead of the curve on both, but I'm less certain on the ceiling.

I need to see this magical natural center everyone's bigged up for 2 years do more than this:
View attachment 875226

There's tension in development even in youth hockey.

Average coaches will teach was they know.
Good coaches will teach what they can see.
Great coaches teach what they envision the future to be.

Lots of parents at the U12 and U14 level only talk about the physical kids. Big, fast, big shot, etc. I see it all the time. Winning completely off physical skills. There's a place for that, as sports are by nature physical. Most of the kids who make it fall into this category if they learn the game.

But then you've got the kids at that level who haven't hit puberty. They have to learn how to play without just winning physically. Those kids take a lot longer to develop, but when they turn 17-18 years old, they end up being the better player because they learned how to play. The comment I hear from US development coaches and scouts is "the puck is always going the right way" when they see one of these kids.

Extending that to prospects, you can see the same thing. Kulich is physical built for a power game and has a great shot. Savoie has amazing leg drive and stick handling, which drives his play making. Ostlund isn't developed yet, but you can see how he makes everyone around him better. The puck is always going the right way.

Casey Mittelstadt has a great hockey mind but his body took forever to catch up, along with terrible management by the Sabres. There are some really good players in the NHL who took a long time to get there, who also didn't have elite physical traits to rely on.

- Elias Lindholm didn't breakout until he was 24 and after he was traded to Calgary.
- William Karlsson didn't breakout until he was 25 and with Vegas.
- Trocheck didn't breakout until he was 24.
- You can make an argument that RNH didn't breakout until he was 26.
- Pettersson didn't break out until he was 24.

I think Ostlund will fall into this category. I think his physical development is going to take a while. I'd keep him in the SHL as long as possible and then move him into the AHL. I'd target about age 21-22 for his first NHL minutes. Basically, the reverse Mittelstadt plan.

The Sabres are logjammed with forward prospects, so there's no need to rush anyone. Ostlund is a kid they really need to be patient with to get his best.

 

[Gabrielor]

There's tension in development even in youth hockey.

Average coaches will teach was they know.
Good coaches will teach what they see.
Great coaches teach what they envision the future to be.

Lots of parents at the U12 and U14 level only talk about the physical kids. Big, fast, big shot, etc. I see it all the time. Winning completely off physical skills. There's a place for that, as sports are by nature physical. Most of the kids who make it fall into this category if they learn the game.

But then you've got the kids at that level who haven't hit puberty. They have to learn how to play without just winning physically. Those kids take a lot longer to develop, but when they turn 17-18 years old, they end up being the better player because they learned how to play. The comment I hear from US development coaches and scouts is "the puck is always going the right way" when they see one of these kids.

Extending that to prospects, you can see the same thing. Kulich is physical built for a power game and has a great shot. Savoie has amazing leg drive and stick handling, which drives his play making. Ostlund isn't developed yet, but you can see how he makes everyone around him better. The puck is always going the right way.

Casey Mittelstadt has a great hockey mind but his body took forever to catch up, along with terrible management by the Sabres. There are some really good players in the NHL who took a long time to get there, who also didn't have elite physical traits to rely on.

- Elias Lindholm didn't breakout until he was 24 and after he was traded to Calgary.
- William Karlsson didn't breakout until he was 25 and with Vegas.
- Trocheck didn't breakout until he was 24.
- You can make an argument that RNH didn't breakout until he was 26.
- Pettersson didn't break out until he was 24.

I think Ostlund will fall into this category. I think his physical development is going to take a while. I'd keep him in the SHL as long as possible and then move him into the AHL. I'd target about age 21-22 for his first NHL minutes. Basically, the reverse Mittelstadt plan.

The Sabres are logjammed with forward prospects, so there's no need to rush anyone. Ostlund is a kid they really need to be patient with to get his best.

One of the best posts I've ever read on this site.

I haven't been much for including Ostlund in trade ideas, mainly because Rosen and 11 make more sense, but this is really going to bat for a guy.

 

[Nikolajs Sillers]

what the hell are they doing over in Sweden that this kid is 20 and still 165 pounds

Surströmming

 

[Selanne00008]

There's tension in development even in youth hockey.

Average coaches will teach was they know.
Good coaches will teach what they can see.
Great coaches teach what they envision the future to be.

Lots of parents at the U12 and U14 level only talk about the physical kids. Big, fast, big shot, etc. I see it all the time. Winning completely off physical skills. There's a place for that, as sports are by nature physical. Most of the kids who make it fall into this category if they learn the game.

But then you've got the kids at that level who haven't hit puberty. They have to learn how to play without just winning physically. Those kids take a lot longer to develop, but when they turn 17-18 years old, they end up being the better player because they learned how to play. The comment I hear from US development coaches and scouts is "the puck is always going the right way" when they see one of these kids.

Extending that to prospects, you can see the same thing. Kulich is physical built for a power game and has a great shot. Savoie has amazing leg drive and stick handling, which drives his play making. Ostlund isn't developed yet, but you can see how he makes everyone around him better. The puck is always going the right way.

Casey Mittelstadt has a great hockey mind but his body took forever to catch up, along with terrible management by the Sabres. There are some really good players in the NHL who took a long time to get there, who also didn't have elite physical traits to rely on.

- Elias Lindholm didn't breakout until he was 24 and after he was traded to Calgary.
- William Karlsson didn't breakout until he was 25 and with Vegas.
- Trocheck didn't breakout until he was 24.
- You can make an argument that RNH didn't breakout until he was 26.
- Pettersson didn't break out until he was 24.

I think Ostlund will fall into this category. I think his physical development is going to take a while. I'd keep him in the SHL as long as possible and then move him into the AHL. I'd target about age 21-22 for his first NHL minutes. Basically, the reverse Mittelstadt plan.

The Sabres are logjammed with forward prospects, so there's no need to rush anyone. Ostlund is a kid they really need to be patient with to get his best.

Great post.

Best analogy non hockey is the ugly duck that turns to a beautiful swan in college. They've got the personality behind he braces and tangled hair. Just takes time and then all of a sudden, your senior year in college you're like WAIT, I went to HS with HER?! Great personality, and now have the looks too. (Mitts, Karlsson)

Rather than the hottie in HS that is a B, and now she gained the sophomore 60 and has a brutal personality to boot. (Zagrapan).