Player Discussion Dakota Joshua | Shut up and give him his money!

[Blue and Green]

He's scored on 20% of his shots on goal since joining the Canucks, thus I don't think they should be getting carried away in terms of reasonable future expectations. If someone wants to give him a Goodrow-like contract, I'd say thanks for your contributions and good luck with your next team.

 

[F A N]

He's scored on 20% of his shots on goal since joining the Canucks, thus I don't think they should be getting carried away in terms of reasonable future expectations. If someone wants to give him a Goodrow-like contract, I'd say thanks for your contributions and good luck with your next team.

I wouldn't focus on his shooting percentage that much. Joshua's goals are pretty much all from in front of the net. The shots he takes are high percentage shots. How often do you see Joshua take low percentage shots? He isn't a high volume shooter either.

Goodrow is a 4C who actually put up career high numbers after signing with the Rangers. Joshua you're looking at someone who was on his way to 23-25 goals 40ish points in a career season. If you can sign Joshua to a Goodrow-like contract you do it (with term being the concern).

I do agree on not getting carried away.

 

[Blue and Green]

I wouldn't focus on his shooting percentage that much. Joshua's goals are pretty much all from in front of the net. The shots he takes are high percentage shots. How often do you see Joshua take low percentage shots? He isn't a high volume shooter either.

Goodrow is a 4C who actually put up career high numbers after signing with the Rangers. Joshua you're looking at someone who was on his way to 23-25 goals 40ish points in a career season. If you can sign Joshua to a Goodrow-like contract you do it (with term being the concern).

I do agree on not getting carried away.

15% is very difficult to maintain over the long haul, never mind 20%.

Goodrow had 33 and 31 points in his first two NYR seasons; this season he plunged to 12 points.

 

[F A N]

15% is very difficult to maintain over the long haul, never mind 20%.

There's obviously going to be some fluctuations, but Joshua also increased his shot totals from last year. Increased ice time helps. There's been a marked increase in shooting percentage since ~2020. Saad has shot over 15% the past 5 seasons. Kuzmenko is over 18%. Marcus Foligno (aside from last season) has shot 17.9%+. Barbashev has shot 17+% in his career. Nic Dowd has shot over 19% last two seasons.

Goodrow had 33 and 31 points in his first two NYR seasons; this season he plunged to 12 points.

The point is that Goodrow was a 4C with low offensive production at the time he signed with the Rangers. Goodrow has never come close to what Joshua has put up this season.

 

[Icebreakers]

Has anyone actually done the math and see what we can afford?

Everyone talks about re signing Dak, Zadorov, Lindholm, Hronek but it sounds likely that we probably keep one or two.

 

[Blue and Green]

There's obviously going to be some fluctuations, but Joshua also increased his shot totals from last year. Increased ice time helps. There's been a marked increase in shooting percentage since ~2020. Saad has shot over 15% the past 5 seasons. Kuzmenko is over 18%. Marcus Foligno (aside from last season) has shot 17.9%+. Barbashev has shot 17+% in his career. Nic Dowd has shot over 19% last two seasons.


The point is that Goodrow was a 4C with low offensive production at the time he signed with the Rangers. Goodrow has never come close to what Joshua has put up this season.

Barbashev is almost a shooting % unicorn in a career sense for a middle-six player. Dowd and Foligno are both below 14% for their careers, Saad is under 13%. Expecting anybody, never mind a third-liner who doesn't play much on the PP, to shoot 20% in the long term is a mug's game, even allowing for the increase in goals in recent seasons.

The Goodrow contract, accounting for expected upcoming cap increases, would be around $3.9M-$4M x 6 plus a 15-team NTC for all six seasons. No thanks. For that money, I'd limit it to a three-year term without any movement protection, which would put him more in line with Vatrano-- who, like Goodrow, went to market to get his contract. Usually there's a small hometown discount comparatively when a guy who is coming off of a good season re-signs with his current team. $3.75M x 3 seems like a fair basis, with some shaving off of the annual cap hit for additional term and/or movement protection.

 

[Luck 6]

Has anyone actually done the math and see what we can afford?

Everyone talks about re signing Dak, Zadorov, Lindholm, Hronek but it sounds likely that we probably keep one or two.

Mikheyev	4.75	Pettersson	11.6	Hoglander	1.1
Boeser	6.65	Miller	8	Suter	1.6
Garland	4.95	3C	2	Joshua	3.5
4W	0.88	4C	1	Podkolzin	1
Aman	0.88
Hughes	7.85	Hronek	7.5
Soucy	3.25	4D	4
Zadorov	5.8	Cole / Myers	3
Demko	5
Silovs	0.79
Ferland LTIR	0
Poolman LTIR	0
OEL Buyout	2.35
Estimated Salary Cap	87.5​	Mil
Total Cap	87.442​	Mil
Cap Space	0.058​	Mil

If we pay Zadorov 5.8mil and Joshua 3.5mil, we have the following remaining:

1. 3C for about 2mil
2. 4C for about 1mil
3. 4W for under 1mil
4. 4D (or something) for about 4mil

If we wanted to upgrade our top 6 forward group, we would need to find a way to move Mikheyev out.

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

Has anyone actually done the math and see what we can afford?

Everyone talks about re signing Dak, Zadorov, Lindholm, Hronek but it sounds likely that we probably keep one or two.

It really boils down to whether we can convince Zadorov to take 5M and Joshua 3M, or close enough to it. I'm really hoping we can leverage term to both of them in the 6-8 year range to keep the dollar amount lower.

Regardless, there's just no way around dumping Mikheyev at this point. We simply can't afford to see if he actually rebounds.

 

[docbenton]

Just a really smart player above all else, obviously has some good skill and finish along with his size as well. Constantly makes good plays including under duress. As long as his feet can keep up I think there's more upside than risk for a falloff moving forward.