The Athletic How the Sabres’ 2022 NHL Draft strategy was boosted by Sam Ventura and the analytics department

[Ace]

A wonderful job turning a correct assessment of more information being better than less information into a debate about nonsense.

Yes the hobbyist putting in less time with less information could clearly have the better method. What an argument.

And btw…you can see Bader’s results. They’re atrocious.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Can I run this by my attorney before I agree?

If you think that'd be more helpful than a statistician or logistician.
.

A wonderful job turning a correct assessment of more information being better than less information into a debate about nonsense.

Yes the hobbyist putting in less time with less information could clearly have the better method. What an argument.

And btw…you can see Bader’s results. They’re atrocious.

Picking the OHL forward with the most points gave better results than most NHL teams for years. Let's not go looking for houses to throw stones at.

 

[jc17]

This was a great read. I wonder what those models entail? Keeping it close to the vest is interesting, don't want to give away company secrets. I guess we'll see if all this data driven stuff equates down the road in a couple years. It's refreshing there are a ton of smart guys in the front office now and they seem to all be on the same page. Kev definitely deserves credit for that.

It seems important to be an early adopter of this stuff. If the stats helped them hit on all 3 1sts, it completely changes the next decade of Sabres' hockey.

The problem with Bader is that when he criticizes a Buffalo pick he’s literally doing it from the relatively uninformed chair. We have smarter people than him building better systems than him with more information than him. And the GM uses it. If he wants to tell you how like…San Jose doesn’t get it or Philly or something…alright I’ll listen. If he wants to argue his more limited information is smarter than Sam Ventura…he’s wrong. Arrogantly so.

The caveat here is that he isn't arguing his information vs ventura's, its his information vs the sabres picks. And while it seems pretty clear that the people in the organization are on the same page, it doesn't mean they are taking the top guy as projected by stats. With that said, I agree that he presents his model with way more certainty than it actually has.

 

[Zach716]

This isn’t coming from a very technical viewpoint of my own but I don’t know why it has to be black and white. Ventura is building out his own tools but I’m sure he’s still very interested in the public conversation and will be running through data via both methods. He can then fill in gaps where needed.

 

[Jim Bob]

This isn’t coming from a very technical viewpoint of my own but I don’t know why it has to be black and white. Ventura is building out his own tools but I’m sure he’s still very interested in the public conversation and will be running through data via both methods. He can then fill in gaps where needed.

If you look at the evolution of analytics in MLB & NBA it is always about trying to find the next thing that gives a team an edge.

The Oakland As were the first team to really dive into stuff like OBP and there was a small time where they had an advantage. Then as bigger budget teams moved away from traditional methods to using analytics, the As had to try and find new ways to build a budget roster that could compete. One area they shifted to as undervalued was defensive play.

I am sure Ventura is taking a similar approach. He wants to give the Sabres an advantage by finding undervalued players and prospects. But, as data and models grow and spread, the pool of undervalued players will shift. The only way to stay one step ahead from the competition is to evolve and adapt.

 

[jc17]

This isn’t coming from a very technical viewpoint of my own but I don’t know why it has to be black and white. Ventura is building out his own tools but I’m sure he’s still very interested in the public conversation and will be running through data via both methods. He can then fill in gaps where needed.

It's not necessarily one method vs another, its more that Bader's "model" is basic, so it's highly likely that when the team makes a selection, they are aware of those numbers as well.

Of course, I could see a team overlooking and NHLE metric thinking it's too basic to matter, but I would hope that with an analytics team that dedicated most of the year to the draft, that it wouldn't be overlooked.

 

[jc17]

What I would be interested in knowing is how the stats influence the overall list for the Sabres. The message is that the scouts and stats have a good relationship, and I believe it, but the specific extent is meaningful.

Do they only select players where there is agreement? Does the uncertainty with a model's projections mean it can be ignored if a traditional scout feels strongly about a player?

If the stats can be overridden by traditional scouting, there might be room for criticism from the amateur stats crowd. If the stats are always considered, outside criticism doesn't hold up as much

 

[Jim Bob]

What I would be interested in knowing is how the stats influence the overall list for the Sabres. The message is that the scouts and stats have a good relationship, and I believe it, but the specific extent is meaningful.

Do they only select players where there is agreement? Does the uncertainty with a model's projections mean it can be ignored if a traditional scout feels strongly about a player?

If the stats can be overridden by traditional scouting, there might be room for criticism from the amateur stats crowd. If the stats are always considered, outside criticism doesn't hold up as much

Given the embedded video and Adams wanting consensus around the table with the Ostlund pick, it sure seems like they want to take guys that both the scouts and the analytics team want to draft. Add in Forton's press conference after the fact and it sure seems like they are working in a way where it is not the scouts versus the analytics team, but both groups working together to make decisions that everyone feels good about.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Given the embedded video and Adams wanting consensus around the table with the Ostlund pick, it sure seems like they want to take guys that both the scouts and the analytics team want to draft. Add in Forton's press conference after the fact and it sure seems like they are working in a way where it is not the scouts versus the analytics team, but both groups working together to make decisions that everyone feels good about.

The way Adams is leading his overall group in the front office is highly encouraging for the future. And given the players that Adams drafted in just the first two rounds of the past three years: Quinn, Peterka, Power, Rosen, Poltapov, Kisakov, Savoie, Ostlund, Kulich, and Leinonen... that's a haul. And even Rosen is starting to make progress.

I'm good with the direction.

 

[Fezzy126]

It's not necessarily one method vs another, its more that Bader's "model" is basic, so it's highly likely that when the team makes a selection, they are aware of those numbers as well.

Of course, I could see a team overlooking and NHLE metric thinking it's too basic to matter, but I would hope that with an analytics team that dedicated most of the year to the draft, that it wouldn't be overlooked.

It's always been a common line of thinking that if you don't score at minor levels then you don't have the requisite skills (skating, hands, IQ) to make it at the nhl level. You often hear retired enforcers talk about how 'everyone' scored tons of points in juniors. Old coaches and scouts would often say it's much easier to teach a scorer how to check than it is a checker how to score.

So I don't think many teams would dismiss minor league scoring in their scouting analysis.

That being said, I highly doubt that teams value scoring in such absolute terms as Bader tends to project with his 'model'.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

It's not necessarily one method vs another, its more that Bader's "model" is basic, so it's highly likely that when the team makes a selection, they are aware of those numbers as well.

Of course, I could see a team overlooking and NHLE metric thinking it's too basic to matter, but I would hope that with an analytics team that dedicated most of the year to the draft, that it wouldn't be overlooked.

There seems to very little back checking of anything. The money is in pumping out predictions, but no one has taken the time to validate anyone.

 

[Jimmybarndoor2]

Projecting who’s projection is more accurate before the results are in is something, huh.

I want Ventura and the Sabres picks to be better than what Bader did. I know I like Power more than Brandt Clarke. But, I don’t see the need to call someone arrogant for having an opinion.

But, I guess that is because I am arrogant enough to question their pick of a goalie in the 2nd round.

I think goalie is the place where they felt that had a glaring need. Only upl here and Levi and Portillo have the possibility to go elsewhere next year.

I think one of top priorities this year was to get that goalie because our goalie risk is getting too high

I think Anderson can only play so long.