Speculation: 2023-2024 General Lightning Discussion - Part 4

[JTBF81]

Sheary has to be moving they need to open cap space for Stamkos more

They need to move both Sheary and Jeannot now more than even before. Even with both gone and factoring in a replacement for them, the team will only have around ~8 available I think.

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[bov]

Sheary and Perbix could do it.

 

[JTBF81]

Sheary and Perbix could do it.

Not enough though, as they still have to replace them. Even with min level replacements from the Crunch, it leaves.them right around 6.5 available. It would be enough perhaps to sign Stamkos, but then they are still needing to sign 3 additional players. Even if Stamkos signs for say 5.5, they are still without space for 2 spots to reach a 22 player roster. All 3 of Jeannot, Perbix and Sheary need to go, and even then, after Stamkos there is now no room for Duclair or another 3-4 aav F.

 

[The Gongshow]

stammer 91 years, 1Mil AAV! Who says no!

 

[dechire]

I have a feeling that Stammer will re-sign for way cheaper than everyone expects and everyone will go back to ranting about taxes on the main boards again

 

[The Gongshow]

I have a feeling that Stammer will re-sign for way cheaper than everyone expects and everyone will go back to ranting about taxes on the main boards again

If JBB was smart, and/or Stammer wanted to stay and make the team a contender again, they would both be talking about potential signings while keeping Stammer on the loop of the cap remaining.

Stamkos could have said go spend or address X then come back and we'll see what we can do with the remaining cap (to a certain extent. Stammer ain't taking 2-3mil.)

 

[DistantThunderRep]

I have a feeling that Stammer will re-sign for way cheaper than everyone expects and everyone will go back to ranting about taxes on the main boards again

If he signs for anything less than 7M, it will break the main boards...again.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

If JBB was smart, and/or Stammer wanted to stay and make the team a contender again, they would both be talking about potential signings while keeping Stammer on the loop of the cap remaining.

Stamkos could have said go spend or address X then come back and we'll see what we can do with the remaining cap (to a certain extent. Stammer ain't taking 2-3mil.)

Even still, the remaining $5M isn't enough. It's not enough to re-sign Stamkos and fill the holes, and it's not enough to fill the hole that Stamkos leaves if he walks.

Another move has to be coming.

 

[Stammertime91]

Stamkos signing for 6-7 mil for 3-4 years is still a fair contract and not one that's an albatross. There's no reason he doesn't hit +60pts on this team until he's 37. I think he'll sign in the 5M range given what happened today. I imagine there's something more behind the scenes about being competitive and wanting to win with the agreement to sign for less. It's been the thing for him the whole way.

 

[NJBolt]

Thinking Stammer signs something like 8 year/$4.5 million AAV, heavily front loaded.

 

[Stammertime91]

Even still, the remaining $5M isn't enough. It's not enough to re-sign Stamkos and fill the holes, and it's not enough to fill the hole that Stamkos leaves if he walks.

Another move has to be coming.

If any of the recently signed guys are moved, my guess is Cirelli.

Cernak is here because we have no RD and you hope the reunion with McD helps him out again. Sergachev isn't going anywhere, they brought McD back to solidify the 1-2-3 punch again. Cirelli is the odd man out, and still, a luxury on this team.

Of course, this is only if Stamkos doesn't do something crazy like sign for sub 4M that nobody sees coming.

 

[JoVel]

I think Stamkos would be an idiot to take a significant paycut to try for another Cup with this team, but I'm certainly not complaining if he chooses to do so.

 

[The Gongshow]

I think Stamkos would be an idiot to take a significant paycut to try for another Cup with this team, but I'm certainly not complaining if he chooses to do so.

I think they all (the players and org) are banking on the core to have one last run. But they don't have the depth, they aren't quite as quick and spry as they were.

Stamkos clearly loves Tampa, he's close with some of the guys in the lockeroom. Besides the family implications I could see him wanting one last go with this team and core to see what happens. I don't think there's a big cup contender option that has the room for him regardless in FA (maye Florida? But they may lose some good depth peices too)

 

[JTBF81]

If any of the recently signed guys are moved, my guess is Cirelli.

Cernak is here because we have no RD and you hope the reunion with McD helps him out again. Sergachev isn't going anywhere, they brought McD back to solidify the 1-2-3 punch again. Cirelli is the odd man out, and still, a luxury on this team.

Of course, this is only if Stamkos doesn't do something crazy like sign for sub 4M that nobody sees coming.

How is Cirelli a luxury exactly? Tampa has 4 top 6 F signed atm (Kuch, Point, Hagel, Cirelli). The McD trade makes it so that keeping Duclair or signing another middle 6 F with upside is done. You trade Jeannot, Sheary, and maybe Perbix, and the money is there for Stamkos in the 5.5 range at least, which gives the team 5 top 6 F at least. Trading Cirelli just means having to use dwindling cap space(after re-signing Stamkos) to then try and find a top/high end middle 6 F for 4 million and still ne in the exact same position they are in now, with the only possible bonus being maybe they have 2 million to sign a meh 3rd/4th liner instead of the 800-900k they'll have in the first scenario to promote an extra Crunch player. Cirelli is not a luxury given the F depth on the team right now.

 

[Stammertime91]

How is Cirelli a luxury exactly? Tampa has 4 top 6 F signed atm (Kuch, Point, Hagel, Cirelli). The McD trade makes it so that keeping Duclair or signing another middle 6 F with upside is done. You trade Jeannot, Sheary, and maybe Perbix, and the money is there for Stamkos in the 5.5 range at least, which gives the team 5 top 6 F at least. Trading Cirelli just means having to use dwindling cap space(after re-signing Stamkos) to then try and find a top/high end middle 6 F for 4 million and still ne in the exact same position they are in now, with the only possible bonus being maybe they have 2 million to sign a meh 3rd/4th liner instead of the 800-900k they'll have in the first scenario to promote an extra Crunch player. Cirelli is not a luxury given the F depth on the team right now.

Because when you have Point, Stamkos, Paul, and Glendening capable of playing center, he's a luxury. When you factor in Paul on half the AAV as Cirelli scoring more goals, he's a luxury. When one of those four goes down, you move them up and call up a center from the AHL. You typically don't have C -> LW/RW everywhere on the team and that's what we've primarily done the last several years.

We acquired one winger in Duclair and the team actually looked dynamic offensively because we brought in a natural winger. That's what the team has needed for years, not makeshift centers turned winger. We can move Cirelli, put stamkos at C, and sign a winger. Cirelli at 6.25M is still a luxury.

 

[JTBF81]

Because when you have Point, Stamkos, Paul, and Glendening capable of playing center, he's a luxury. When you factor in Paul on half the AAV as Cirelli scoring more goals, he's a luxury. When one of those four goes down, you move them up and call up a center from the AHL. You typically don't have C -> LW/RW everywhere on the team and that's what we've primarily done the last several years.

We acquired one winger in Duclair and the team actually looked dynamic offensively because we brought in a natural winger. That's what the team has needed for years, not makeshift centers turned winger. We can move Cirelli, put stamkos at C, and sign a winger. Cirelli at 6.25M is still a luxury.

Stamkos.no longer plays C as much, and Paul is a 3rd liner that can play up. Cirelli is no luxury. And even in your scenario, Tampa now has Stamkos playing a position he doesnt seem to.prefer anymore, a winger that runs as hot and cold as Cirelli in Duclair, and still a large hole in the top 6 that either has to be filled by Paul(Ssub optimal choice) or still have no room for the needed depth add in the middle 6.

 

[Stammertime91]

Stamkos.no longer plays C as much, and Paul is a 3rd liner that can play up. Cirelli is no luxury. And even in your scenario, Tampa now has Stamkos playing a position he doesnt seem to.prefer anymore, a winger that runs as hot and cold as Cirelli in Duclair, and still a large hole in the top 6 that either has to be filled by Paul(Ssub optimal choice) or still have no room for the needed depth add in the middle 6.

He doesn't play center because someone has to play wing. Lol...

My scenario doesn't bring back Duclair.

 

[JTBF81]

He doesn't play center because someone has to play wing. Lol...

My scenario doesn't bring back Duclair.

Then it brings back someone else that isn't likely a real top 6 wing in the 3-4 range, has a 2C that was very poor defensively last year and still no room for a needed additional top/middle.6 F, unless you think Stamkos is taking peanuts.

 

[Byrddog]

He doesn't play center because someone has to play wing. Lol...

My scenario doesn't bring back Duclair.

Yeah remember when Coop moved Cirelli over to wing and how piss poor he looked. It has to be Cirelli moving and if he can find a way a Shery and Jeanott as well. I would not be surprised if Jeanott is just bought out the hit would be half as it would be carrying him.

Have to feel that JBB is pressured into repairing the D with the step back Perbix took especially. Can’t see Cernak or Sergi being moved since they will be required to slide in to the Heddy Max spots in a couple years. I would not be surprised to see Maroon Bach as well he and Coop have long history and he can do as much as Jeanott and Watson at half the price.

 

[Todd1a]

stammer 91 years, 1Mil AAV! Who says no!

What if they just pay Stamkos 4.5 AAV per year for a 8 year term lol and just front load the contract with bonus money and a full NMC

If he signs for anything less than 7M, it will break the main boards...again.

I always thought Stamkos would sign for 6.5 AAV because that’s the same money he made last year it’s just that his cap hit was 8.5 million AAV .

I’d say 6.5 AAV for 5 years to finish his career in Tampa out

 

[Todd1a]

I think Stamkos would be an idiot to take a significant paycut to try for another Cup with this team, but I'm certainly not complaining if he chooses to do so.

Dude has made 100 million already in the NHL the his family loves Tampa and Stamkos loves the organization. Makes no sense for him to leave the Lightning can still pay him a good contract just not the most

 

[Stammertime91]

Then it brings back someone else that isn't likely a real top 6 wing in the 3-4 range, has a 2C that was very poor defensively last year and still no room for a needed additional top/middle.6 F, unless you think Stamkos is taking peanuts.

And bringing back Duclair under 4 probably isn't likely, so what are you arguing there? Either scenario likely loses him. Stamkos was mediocre defensively but you mask deficiencies with linemates. Putting Hagel with him helps solve that. They would just need a competent RW.

Nobody has any idea what Stamkos is taking.

 

[Stelio Kontos]

Cirelli + Jeannot for Marner w ret.. resign for under 10m with the tax benefits. Marner benefits on a team full of vets who have won with little pressure

Point - Kuch
Stamkos - Marner

 

[TheDaysOf 04]

I think Stamkos would be an idiot to take a significant paycut to try for another Cup with this team, but I'm certainly not complaining if he chooses to do so.

He's got his 2 rings, he's been to 4 Stanley Cup Finals, and 3 other times made it to game 7 of the Conference Finals. He's already hit a number of NHL milestones the past 2 years, and he's a lock for the Hall of Fame as one of the greatest goal scorers ever. I would not hold it against him if now was the time to collect on some more earnings before turning 35. But when asked about taking another discount, this was his answer from his exit interview:

"I think that has been a part of everyone's thought process in the core group of guys that we have had here in terms of what guys have taken over the years to stay here. I understand the tax advantage and that type of thing. Kuch is making $9.5. That is probably grossly underpaid in terms of what guys are getting now. Vasy. Pointer with 40 or 50 goals every year. You look at Matthews. What did he sign for? $13.5 or something? Heddy is making under $8 million. That is grossly underpaid if you look at what he has done. That is what everyone has done here and that is why we have had the success and that is the way it has been for this organization. I think that that in itself is a testament to management in how they want to build a team and, first and foremost, the players for wanting to do that and accept that and allow the management to go out there and build a roster to compete for the Stanley Cup. I think that's just always been the way it's been here"

Maybe something you don't want to put out there publicly before negotiations, but that is Stammer true to himself. He helped set the standard of excellence here. So it's no surprise that after a decade of winning that he would take pride in that and prioritize it over money. His small mention of Matthews and therefore Toronto, makes a sharp comparison of when players go in the opposite direction.

It's just a matter of what's agreeable. There's no question Stamkos will take below value, but by how much? He won't stay for free, but as he understands what needs to be done in the salary cap era to ice the best roster. The timing of the Ryan McDonagh trade is interesting. Does it help or hurt negotiations? Stammer would agree with JBB that McD (a big part of the cup teams) increases their odds for 2025, but it also takes some money away from Stammer himself.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

He's got his 2 rings, he's been to 4 Stanley Cup Finals, and 3 other times made it to game 7 of the Conference Finals. He's already hit a number of NHL milestones the past 2 years, and he's a lock for the Hall of Fame as one of the greatest goal scorers ever. I would not hold it against him if now was the time to collect on some more earnings before turning 35. But when asked about taking another discount, this was his answer from his exit interview:



Maybe something you don't want to put out there publicly before negotiations, but that is Stammer true to himself. He helped set the standard of excellence here. So it's no surprise that after a decade of winning that he would take pride in that and prioritize it over money. His small mention of Matthews and therefore Toronto, makes a sharp comparison of when players go in the opposite direction.

It's just a question of what's agreeable. There's no question Stamkos will take below value, but by how much? He won't stay for free, but as he understands what needs to be done in the salary cap era to ice the best roster. The timing of the Ryan McDonagh trade is interesting. Does it help or hurt negotiations? Stammer would agree with JBB that McD (a big part of the cup teams) increases their odds for 2025, but it also takes some money away from Stammer himself.

His good friend just got traded to NSH and wanted badly to return to Tampa for personal and family reasons. I'm sure Stamkos thinks about this a lot. He has way more roots here than McD ever did.