Speculation: 2023-2024 General Lightning Discussion - Part 4

[JoVel]

Dude has made 100 million already in the NHL the his family loves Tampa and Stamkos loves the organization. Makes no sense for him to leave the Lightning can still pay him a good contract just not the most

Yeah if he wants to take a paycut to stay in Tampa then that's obviously understandable. I was saying if he takes it to win a cup here, then good luck with that.

 

[JTBF81]

And bringing back Duclair under 4 probably isn't likely, so what are you arguing there? Either scenario likely loses him. Stamkos was mediocre defensively but you mask deficiencies with linemates. Putting Hagel with him helps solve that. They would just need a competent RW.

Nobody has any idea what Stamkos is taking.

I'm not arguing for DUclair at all. The point remains that Cirelli is.not a luxury, as Tampa can't sign Stamkos and replace him with anyone better with the space they will have. Before they spent almost 7 million in re-acquiring McD, there was a clear path to add both a.dman amd a F in the mid 3's, but now, the plan remains the same in terms of moving out the lesser pieces, having a stronger(in theory) blueline, and needing an extra player or two from Syracuse or a cheap ufa to chip in on the F group. Cirelli was never likely on the block in either scenario, but it was clear that the emphasis on improving was on the defense, which was the clear area that needed it.

 

[Stammertime91]

Realistic gets from FA on wing:

Foegele, Lafferty, Sprong, Joshua

Duclair fitting in after the McD trade is highly unlikely. I doubt that's even being considered at this point.

 

[Zwui21]

Realistic gets from FA on wing:

Foegele, Lafferty, Sprong, Joshua

Duclair fitting in after the McD trade is highly unlikely. I doubt that's even being considered at this point.

Wanted Sprong last season, get him and we should have a decent top6

 

[JTBF81]

Realistic gets from FA on wing:

Foegele, Lafferty, Sprong, Joshua

Duclair fitting in after the McD trade is highly unlikely. I doubt that's even being considered at this point.

Only Lafferty will come in much cheaper than Duclair, and none of those guys are real 2nd liners, nor are any of them a player in would sacrifice Cirelli to make room for.

Wanted Sprong last season, get him and we should have a decent top6

Yeah, and at 2 million he would've been perfect. Now, he'll want high 3's or 4 aav, and Tampa can't afford that.

 

[Stammertime91]

I'm not arguing for DUclair at all. The point remains that Cirelli is.not a luxury, as Tampa can't sign Stamkos and replace him with anyone better with the space they will have. Before they spent almost 7 million in re-acquiring McD, there was a clear path to add both a.dman amd a F in the mid 3's, but now, the plan remains the same in terms of moving out the lesser pieces, having a stronger(in theory) blueline, and needing an extra player or two from Syracuse or a cheap ufa to chip in on the F group. Cirelli was never likely on the block in either scenario, but it was clear that the emphasis on improving was on the defense, which was the clear area that needed it.

It's mainly about combos in the NHL anymore, not lines. If we could find someone that meshed with Stamkos, that's ideal. Run down the remainder of his career with someone that is effective with him. It's not Cirelli. You don't pay him 6.25M to play 3C, nor do you need to keep him when Paul is sufficient for half the cost. He has 0 chemistry with Stamkos. You could put Hagel with Stamkos, keep Point with Kucherov. Then staple guys like Sprong, Foegele, Joshua, whoever through trade, at a cheaper cap hit on their wing. Look at the Panthers top six cap hits. Of course, our team is "mature" in the sense that they are not on ELCs, but since we don't have that cheap, young, good help at the moment, someone has to go.

If we keep Hagel, Cirelli, Stamkos, Point, and Kucherov as our top six, then there's still a hole to be filled. I'm all for moving Perbix, Sheary, and Jeannot just for the sake of shaking things up and changing those looks. Maybe we could afford someone like Sprong at that point.

 

[Stammertime91]

Only Lafferty will come in much cheaper than Duclair, and none of those guys are real 2nd liners, nor are any of them a player in would sacrifice Cirelli to make room for.


Yeah, and at 2 million he would've been perfect. Now, he'll want high 3's or 4 aav, and Tampa can't afford that.

Lafferty because our bottom six still sucks, sure. Sprong is as much of a "second line" guy as Duclair. He'd hit 20 here, easily. His last two seasons were 21/25 and 18/25. He's virtually a lateral move for a position we need. We've seen what Cirelli can do offensively. He's going to be a 40-50 point guy yearly, already at +6M. Right now is the time to revamp the offense bringing McDonagh back. We don't wait another 1-2 years when Stamkos, Hedman, and McD are another 1-2 years older.

In one of those "first days as president" move, my first move would be moving on from Cirelli. That is not reflective of him as a player, it's reflective of our cap situation. I said the team made a huge mistake moving on from McD just because "age" or one playoff run was mediocre and look what happened today? A lot of people saw that. Not trying to posture like a know it all, but sometimes, these moves for "defensive" players and "top six" aura hanging over their heads, are not the right ones to make. Had we moved Cirelli two seasons ago and kept McD, I think we make it past Toronto. Paul was here and capable of 3C. Paul has already eclipsed Cirelli's goal scoring and Hagel's emergence is sufficient for defense. We may argue semantics over the word "luxury," but moving on from Cirelli and allocating that to let's say, Joshua and Sprong, is a much better use.

 

[Todd1a]

Cirell and hagel play very well together I’ll tell you that there chemistry is good if our defense and Vasy is better next season Tampa can definitely surprise some teams

 

[JTBF81]

It's mainly about combos in the NHL anymore, not lines. If we could find someone that meshed with Stamkos, that's ideal. Run down the remainder of his career with someone that is effective with him. It's not Cirelli. You don't pay him 6.25M to play 3C, nor do you need to keep him when Paul is sufficient for half the cost. He has 0 chemistry with Stamkos. You could put Hagel with Stamkos, keep Point with Kucherov. Then staple guys like Sprong, Foegele, Joshua, whoever through trade, at a cheaper cap hit on their wing. Look at the Panthers top six cap hits. Of course, our team is "mature" in the sense that they are not on ELCs, but since we don't have that cheap, young, good help at the moment, someone has to go.

If we keep Hagel, Cirelli, Stamkos, Point, and Kucherov as our top six, then there's still a hole to be filled. I'm all for moving Perbix, Sheary, and Jeannot just for the sake of shaking things up and changing those looks. Maybe we could afford someone like Sprong at that point.

And there's still two.major holes to be filled if Cirelli is moved. Paul and Stamkos, outside of a small stretch together season before last, we're atrocious together, so that's not a great option either. I don't see a single winger available in the 3 range that the team shouldnbe moving Cirelli in favor of, so I dont see Cirelli as a luxury.

 

[TheDaysOf 04]

His good friend just got traded to NSH and wanted badly to return to Tampa for personal and family reasons. I'm sure Stamkos thinks about this a lot. He has way more roots here than McD ever did.

Killorn was here for a long time too and also made it known publicly that he wanted to remain a Bolt and retire here (and thankfully still does). JBB said all the same things about how important Killorn was to the organization. The numbers just didn't work out.

On the other hand though I can't see how Killorn is happy playing on a team that won only 27 games this season and might use up the rest of Killer's good years trying to rebuild. Same with Palat who's Devils missed the playoffs and went from playing with Nikita Kucherov to .... guys who are not Nikita Kucherov.

 

[Flat Ronnie]

Killorn was here for a long time too and also made it known publicly that he wanted to remain a Bolt and retire here (and thankfully still does). JBB said all the same things about how important Killorn was to the organization. The numbers just didn't work out.

On the other hand though I can't see how Killorn is happy playing on a team that won only 27 games this season and might use up the rest of Killer's good years trying to rebuild. Same with Palat who's Devils missed the playoffs and went from playing with Nikita Kucherov to .... guys who are not Nikita Kucherov.

There is a humongous difference in both wealth and stature between Stamkos and Killorn. Killorn wanted (or needed) that payday. Stamkos, on the other hand, has made something like $100M in career earnings playing hockey.

Two totally different cases.

 

[Stammertime91]

And there's still two.major holes to be filled if Cirelli is moved. Paul and Stamkos, outside of a small stretch together season before last, we're atrocious together, so that's not a great option either. I don't see a single winger available in the 3 range that the team shouldnbe moving Cirelli in favor of, so I dont see Cirelli as a luxury.

That is your perception of a top six. Six players making +6M is not it. Especially when two are making iirc off the top of my head, over +9M. Then whatever Stamkos comes in at, along with Hagel's new contract. Look at the cap allocation among the top six for playoff teams, there are plenty of 3-4M range players. You kind need four in order to make two lines work. A combo + someone for chemistry. That is typically how lines are composed in today's game. Aside from very few elite, cap friendly trios, they are typically a high priced duo with a cheaper third wheel. Sprong, Foegele, etc are those kinda guys. Duclair is as well, I'm just not a fan nor do I think he fits with Stamkos possibly resigning.

You would build your top six around Point/Kuch and Hagel/Stamkos. You then plug the wing positions with cheaper players and round out the bottom six.

 

[Todd1a]

Carey price LTIR traded to Tampa solves everything lol ?

 

[JTBF81]

Cirell and hagel play very well together I’ll tell you that there chemistry is good if our defense and Vasy is better next season Tampa can definitely surprise some teams

Yeah, play Hagel with Cirelli and Paul or a Crunch promotion/cheap ufa signing, and roll Stamkos-Point-Kuch on line 1.

 

[JTBF81]

That is your perception of a top six. Six players making +6M is not it. Especially when two are making iirc off the top of my head, over +9M. Then whatever Stamkos comes in at, along with Hagel's new contract. Look at the cap allocation among the top six for playoff teams, there are plenty of 3-4M range players. You kind need four in order to make two lines work. A combo + someone for chemistry. That is typically how lines are composed in today's game. Aside from very few elite, cap friendly trios, they are typically a high priced duo with a cheaper third wheel. Sprong, Foegele, etc are those kinda guys. Duclair is as well, I'm just not a fan nor do I think he fits with Stamkos possibly resigning.

You would build your top six around Point/Kuch and Hagel/Stamkos. You then plug the wing positions with cheaper players and round out the bottom six.

No, my perception of the top 6 is for quality players, and the plan would've been to have the space to have a 3-4 million winger or less if needed in the top 6, not water it down with a glorifoed.3rd liner and still have to have someone on an.elc or making close to.leagje min. They spent more on defense and so be it, that's where they needed the.most help. Cirelli is part of the core now and, provided Stamkos does re-sign, they'll add the 6th member of the top either by promoting g Paul or another cheap option. Stamkos with Point and Kuch wouldn't surprise, and Hagel with Cirelli and either Paul or another F at times seems likely as well.

 

[Stammertime91]

Boston's top six: ~32M

Marchand (6.125) / Coyle (5.25) / Frederic (2.3)
Zacha (4.75) / Geekie (2) / Pastrnak (11.25)

Rangers top six: ~39M

Panarin (11.6) / Trocheck (5.6) / Laf (2.3)
Kreider (6.5) / Zibanejad (8.5) / Roslovic (4)

Lightning top six: ~32M (w/o Stamkos or Duclair)

Hagel (6.5) / Point (9.5) / Kucherov (9.5)
Cirelli (6.25)

This is the difficult sell. If we bring back Stamkos, we are in Rangers territory, needing another cheap top six placeholder. If we moved on from Cirelli and say Stamkos comes in around that cap hit, you pull Hagel down and fill one winger spot on each line for ~3M. Asking for Stamkos and someone that can match Cirelli in order to be comfortable with parting with him is unrealistic. You rarely come across our b2b top six, ever. Dallas has a deep team right now thats reminiscent. We would be better off raising Foegele Mr. Kucherov instead of McDoodle, or someone like Sprong, and taking a flier through a trade or another FA signing to fill both winger spots. You'd get a roster player/decent futures for Cirelli, too.

No, my perception of the top 6 is for quality players, and the plan would've been to have the space to have a 3-4 million winger or less if needed in the top 6, not water it down with a glorifoed.3rd liner and still have to have someone on an.elc or making close to.leagje min. They spent more on defense and so be it, that's where they needed the.most help. Cirelli is part of the core now and, provided Stamkos does re-sign, they'll add the 6th member of the top either by promoting g Paul or another cheap option. Stamkos with Point and Kuch wouldn't surprise, and Hagel with Cirelli and either Paul or another F at times seems likely as well.

Paul is fine, too. More than fine, though the replacement for his spot comes internally like Goncalves or whoever else someone thinks makes the team. I think that's unlikely. I also think for some reason Paul is just a better player on the third line than being asked for more up top. Let him play PP1 and mesh with someone like Eyssimont for 3rd line duties.

I'm just really surprised, excited, yet anxious as to what happens given we got McDonagh back today.

 

[JTBF81]

Boston's top six: ~32M

Marchand (6.125) / Coyle (5.25) / Frederic (2.3)
Zacha (4.75) / Geekie (2) / Pastrnak (11.25)

Rangers top six: ~39M

Panarin (11.6) / Trocheck (5.6) / Laf (2.3)
Kreider (6.5) / Zibanejad (8.5) / Roslovic (4)

Lightning top six: ~32M (w/o Stamkos or Duclair)

Hagel (6.5) / Point (9.5) / Kucherov (9.5)
Cirelli (6.25)

This is the difficult sell. If we bring back Stamkos, we are in Rangers territory, needing another cheap top six placeholder. If we moved on from Cirelli and say Stamkos comes in around that cap hit, you pull Hagel down and fill one winger spot on each line for ~3M. Asking for Stamkos and someone that can match Cirelli in order to be comfortable with parting with him is unrealistic. You rarely come across our b2b top six, ever. Dallas has a deep team right now thats reminiscent. We would be better off raising Foegele Mr. Kucherov instead of McDoodle, or someone like Sprong, and taking a flier through a trade or another FA signing to fill both winger spots. You'd get a roster player/decent futures for Cirelli, too.


Paul is fine, too. More than fine, though the replacement for his spot comes internally like Goncalves or whoever else someone thinks makes the team. I think that's unlikely. I also think for some reason Paul is just a better player on the third line than being asked for more up top. Let him play PP1 and mesh with someone like Eyssimont for 3rd line duties.

I'm just really surprised, excited, yet anxious as to what happens given we got McDonagh back today.

Tampa cannot spend 3 million on two top 6 forwards(not that they'd be real top 6 anyway, unless Stamkos takes something ridiculously cheap, which he won't). Those other teams haven't won anything with either of their strategies, so okay. Tampa can roll one more season with 5 out of 6 strong top 6, and either move Paul up or have a Syracuse kid get a shot. They could try and acquire a 3rd liner to slot with Ace and maybe Lafferty much easier than trying to find a top 6 winger with their space.

 

[Felonious Python]

Wanted Sprong last season, get him and we should have a decent top6

Derek Lalonde has Sprong on the 4th line.

Coop may have a different opinion, but if Newsy didn't find a top role for him...

 

[Stammertime91]

Tampa cannot spend 3 million on two top 6 forwards(not that they'd be real top 6 anyway, unless Stamkos takes something ridiculously cheap, which he won't). Those other teams haven't won anything with either of their strategies, so okay. Tampa can roll one more season with 5 out of 6 strong top 6, and either move Paul up or have a Syracuse kid get a shot. They could try and acquire a 3rd liner to slot with Ace and maybe Lafferty much easier than trying to find a top 6 winger with their space.

With Cirelli out of the equation, sure they could. It would take moving Sheary, Jeannot, and Perbix as well, but they could do it. And we can afford to do it because there are cheaper replacements behind those three. Given McDonagh is once again a member of the Lightning, I think Brisebois realizes the last two years were not ideal. Whether it's swallowing pride, admitting a mistake, or trying a bit more out of the box, I think he's probably not happy with the Jeannot trade or the Sheary signing.

I also think Stamkos is falling in the 5-6M range. He wouldn't have made that comment today if he's asking for someone out of reach. If that is the case, yes, we absolutely can afford it but it means moving on from Cirelli and the dead weight crew from this season.

 

[Stammertime91]

Derek Lalonde has Sprong on the 4th line.

Coop may have a different opinion, but if Newsy didn't find a top role for him...

And Cooper had Drouin on the 4th, Duclair down to 9mins in game 4, JAM, Verhaeghe, ABB, etc. There are a lot of nuances that run deeper than just the eye test there. I get that's not a good look, and maybe for some reasons DRW fans could chime in on, but sometimes players just don't find favor in a coach's sight simply for existing. Not saying that's the case with Sprong, but his production for only getting 11-12 mins ATOI the last two seasons with Seattle and Detroit is nothing to scoff at either.

 

[Felonious Python]

And Cooper had Drouin on the 4th, Duclair down to 9mins in game 4, JAM, Verhaeghe, ABB, etc. There are a lot of nuances that run deeper than just the eye test there. I get that's not a good look, and maybe for some reasons DRW fans could chime in on, but sometimes players just don't find favor in a coach's sight simply for existing. Not saying that's the case with Sprong, but his production for only getting 11-12 mins ATOI the last two seasons with Seattle and Detroit is nothing to scoff at either.

Sprong has been terrible defensively.

 

[Stammertime91]

Sprong has been terrible defensively.

See, perfect fit on Stamkos' wing.

 

[Coopers Gum]

And Cooper had Drouin on the 4th, Duclair down to 9mins in game 4, JAM, Verhaeghe, ABB, etc. There are a lot of nuances that run deeper than just the eye test there. I get that's not a good look, and maybe for some reasons DRW fans could chime in on, but sometimes players just don't find favor in a coach's sight simply for existing. Not saying that's the case with Sprong, but his production for only getting 11-12 mins ATOI the last two seasons with Seattle and Detroit is nothing to scoff at either.

Why is it every time I see a good post, you’re the one making it

I refuse to like any more of them

Edit: f***, the one above me is funny

 

[Felonious Python]

See, perfect fit on Stamkos' wing.

I found this video from two months ago.

 

[JTBF81]

With Cirelli out of the equation, sure they could. It would take moving Sheary, Jeannot, and Perbix as well, but they could do it. And we can afford to do it because there are cheaper replacements behind those three. Given McDonagh is once again a member of the Lightning, I think Brisebois realizes the last two years were not ideal. Whether it's swallowing pride, admitting a mistake, or trying a bit more out of the box, I think he's probably not happy with the Jeannot trade or the Sheary signing.

I also think Stamkos is falling in the 5-6M range. He wouldn't have made that comment today if he's asking for someone out of reach. If that is the case, yes, we absolutely can afford it but it means moving on from Cirelli and the dead weight crew from this season.

So they end up with a crap watered down topn6 with maybe two 3 million guys on it, and that's all dependent on what Stamkos takes. Even moving Cirelli and all.three of the other guys, after signing Stamkos and replacing the dman traded and a #7, the team would have maybe 9 millionish for 5 forwards. There still isn't room for any meaningful middle 6 depth while still trying to address two large holes in the top 6. I don't want guys like Foegele, Sprong or Joshua being in the top 6. Sprong is the closest, but the kind of guys Tampa could afford aren't real top 6 material. They can keep Cirelli, move Paul up or give a deserving Syracuse player a shot, and with any luck, still be able tonsign or trade for a 3rd liner for depth. Next offseason they'll have a bit more room, and I'm sure they'll address a top 6 F then.