Series Talk: Rangers vs. Carolina (Game 1, Sunday May 5th @ 4pm ET, ESPN)

[Machinehead]

i'm not trying to single MH out, but his simultaneously honing in on Kakkos lack of production results as well in terms of +/- and the bottom 6's season-long analytical profile as a whole is curious.

Kakko grades out pretty well analytically in terms of shot share and xgf%, and the guys who were the worst offenders throughout the season in the bottom 6 - both in terms of analytics as well as production - have been replaced. The leftovers are Cuylle Goodrow and Vesey.

Cuylle is a rookie but i think we've seen him have success so far. balancing playing responsibly, imposing his will physically, and actually creating against such a staunch defense is a tall task for him. It could honestly be a big moment in his process to find some belief and confidence.

Goodrow, this year, we know was pure unfiltered detonate-the-Denny's-after-church-Grand-Slam Ass. But he has PK steez and has a postseason knack. we've seen it and we'll need to keep seeing it.

Vesey is a guy I would love to see really turn it on, but he had a bad g4 and might actually be the odd man out of Chytil returns. he had that hot streak and then fell off a cliff production wise. he has the size the grit the smarts and the pedigree.. but we haven't seen him be truly effective outside game 1.

I'm very curious to see what a Goodrow Wennberg Vesey line looks like. It could be toothless or it could totally slap. Wennberg rarely loses his minutes but he has no desire to create offense.

Chytil between Cuylle and Kakko i strongly feel would be successful

Kakko grades out well analytically but he never scores. His linemates never score.

I champion analytics as much as anybody, but even I'll admit that it's still hockey and the object of the game is to score.

People asked me why I think Carolina has a better roster and I pointed to some spots. Like I said, next time I'll just lie.

You have people posting Vegas odds seething that we're not #1.

Cut the f***ing hubris.

 

[haveandare]

Carolina is wildly overrated again.

Theyre good and certainly can win a series against the rangers but they’re not worth being scared of as if they’re on another level. They’re playing Tony Deangelo… not as a PP specialist but as an actual defenseman. They could easy be 2-2 against the Isles. They’re not some monster team. Models favor them because they take a million garbage shots.

 

[MrAlmost]

I don't want to be a downer and I love being wrong, but watching the Canes a lot this year, man they are good. Good enough to beat the likes of Florida, I don't know. But shit. They play relentless.

 

[Machinehead]

I don't want to be a downer and I love being wrong, but watching the Canes a lot this year, man they are good. Good enough to beat the likes of Florida, I don't know. But shit. They play relentless.

We could beat them, but yeah, they're really good.

I'm not sure what the expectation is here. Do people think we're on an island as the #1 team in the league?

 

[Irishguy42]

Are the Hurricanes good? Yes.

Are they drastically better than the Rangers? No, not even close.

 

[Machinehead]

Are the Hurricanes good? Yes.

Are they drastically better than the Rangers? No, not even close.

Definitely would not say drastically.

 

[zlev]

a rangers-carolina series will be 7 games of war and anyone expecting us to win in 5 is going to be very disappointed

 

[SA16]

Carolina is wildly overrated again.

Theyre good and certainly can win a series against the rangers but they’re not worth being scared of as if they’re on another level. They’re playing Tony Deangelo… not as a PP specialist but as an actual defenseman. They could easy be 2-2 against the Isles. They’re not some monster team. Models favor them because they take a million garbage shots.

People will tell you about their shot quality but that's not really it. It's almost certainly models overvaluing their rebound shot attempts. They led the league in shots from dmen by an enormous margin. It's a slightly rough approximation because I'm excluding players who played for multiple teams for ease but doing so they took 1961 shots from the defense at 5v5. The next most was Edmonton at 1511. That's 14.8 shot attempts/60 from defense when the second high was Colorado 12.7.

Because they take all these low danger shots they are going to get a lot of rebounds off the pads which are all going to be classified as high danger chances on account of being close to the net and as stated a rebound. However, this is likely a misclassification and these shots are on average not nearly as dangerous as they are counted as. It's not randomness that the Canes have underperformed their xG in terms of actual G 5 years in a row.

For reference, people think Trouba shoots a lot, and he does, but all five of Orlov, Pesce, Slavin, Skjei, and Burns attempted more 5v5 shots than him this year.

 

[duhmetreE]

a rangers-carolina series will be 7 games of war and anyone expecting us to win in 5 is going to be very disappointed

Rangers in 5.

Akin to the Rangers Kings finals.

I have spoken

 

[Cuckoo4Kakko]

Kakko grades out well analytically but he never scores. His linemates never score.

I champion analytics as much as anybody, but even I'll admit that it's still hockey and the object of the game is to score.

People asked me why I think Carolina has a better roster and I pointed to some spots. Like I said, next time I'll just lie.

You have people posting Vegas odds seething that we're not #1.

Cut the f***ing hubris.

The goal of the game is to score, but also to not let your opponent score. Grades out well analytically isn't that. They dominated. Wish they had more goals. Wennberg is Strome like. Kakko has set him up plenty. He's still useful. Notice how everyone knows he can't score, but we all want him back on the team. It's almost like he does other things well.

 

[Cuckoo4Kakko]

Also, you're not getting crap for saying the Canes are good. You're getting crap for acting like we aren't. Say the other team has talent. They do. Nothing wrong with that. But so do we. All 4 lines.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I don’t think MH ever said the Rangers weren’t any good.

 

[Machinehead]

I don’t think MH ever said the Rangers weren’t any good.

I said that I think Carolina has a slightly better roster. Without sitting down and looking at everyone, we're probably talking about #2 and #3.

A lot of you aren't ready for round two. You're too soft.

If your ego is that fragile that you can't handle minor analysis of the series, then this isn't your time of year.

Either grow a f***ing pair, or pick up soccer and support Real Madrid where you get to hear everyone tell you that you have the best roster every day.

We beat an AHL team. We haven't played a real playoff game and we've proven nothing. The playoffs start next week.

Are you ready for the playoffs or are you ready for Santa Claus to tell you everything will be ok?

You people sicken me.

 

[jerseyjinx94]

I really don't think the Hurricanes are better than the Rangers on the paper. Both teams have well-balanced lineups, deep forward groups, and a solid D corps. Rangers have the edge in net, but we know that in a small sample like a playoff series that edge can shift very easily.

Guentzel-Aho-Svechnikov is better than Panarin-Trocheck-Lafrenire?

What do they have, Teravainen with Staal and Jarvis? Zibanejad-Kreider-Roslovic.

Wennberg-Cuylle Kakko is just as good as Martinook Drury Necas and the 4th line, Goodrow-Vesey-Rempe, was arguably our best line in Round 1. Kotkaniemi Noesen and Kuznetsov is just like 3 random pieces with nowhere to fit shoved onto a 4th line.

I'd give the slight edge on D to them but with Deangelo in, that's a huge swing for the Rangers. And we have the best D in the series.

I don't see it

 

[zlev]

I said that I think Carolina has a slightly better roster. Without sitting down and looking at everyone, we're probably talking about #2 and #3.

A lot of you aren't ready for round two. You're too soft.

If your ego is that fragile that you can't handle minor analysis of the series, then this isn't your time of year.

Either grow a f***ing pair, or pick up soccer and support Real Madrid where you get to hear everyone tell you that you have the best roster every day.

We beat an AHL team. We haven't played a real playoff game and we've proven nothing. The playoffs start next week.

Are you ready for the playoffs or are you ready for Santa Claus to tell you everything will be ok?

You people sicken me.

and yet, the same people who think we're the 1986 Oilers right now will want to blow the whole roster up after the first bad period of the series

 

[Machinehead]

and yet, the same people who think we're the 1986 Oilers right now will want to blow the whole roster up after the first bad period of the series

That's the part that gets me.

If we're down 2-1, I'll probably be the first one saying we're still in it.

I didn't say anything egregious. This is a thread to analyze the series. This isn't a thread to get your Rangers fellation. You're not getting it from me. This is the playoffs.

 

[Killem Dafoe]

The Canes are gunna win, aren't they? Not gunna lie friends, they worry me a touch.

The thing that gives me hope is our ability to match the other team's intensity. We played waaay down to the Caps, if we play the Canes I feel like we'll be playing 4 levels higher.

 

[Machinehead]

The Canes are gunna win, aren't they? Not gunna lie friends, they worry me a touch.

The thing that gives me hope is our ability to match the other team's intensity. We played waaay down to the Caps, if we play the Canes I feel like we'll be playing 4 levels higher.

So you don't think the Rangers are any good?

 

[GENESISPuck94]

I was hoping the Islanders would make a series out of it but they're just not good.

Boston has to close it out tonight. FLA is BOS will be a rough series.

 

[kovazub94]

I really don't think the Hurricanes are better than the Rangers on the paper. Both teams have well-balanced lineups, deep forward groups, and a solid D corps. Rangers have the edge in net, but we know that in a small sample like a playoff series that edge can shift very easily.

Guentzel-Aho-Svechnikov is better than Panarin-Trocheck-Lafrenire?

What do they have, Teravainen with Staal and Jarvis? Zibanejad-Kreider-Roslovic.

Wennberg-Cuylle Kakko is just as good as Martinook Drury Necas and the 4th line, Goodrow-Vesey-Rempe, was arguably our best line in Round 1. Kotkaniemi Noesen and Kuznetsov is just like 3 random pieces with nowhere to fit shoved onto a 4th line.

I'd give the slight edge on D to them but with Deangelo in, that's a huge swing for the Rangers. And we have the best D in the series.

I don't see it

Yup, beside the best players at each position for the Rangers over Canes I also question whether Kuznetsov as 4C or ADA in your top-6 at all are major disadvantages

 

[Gardner McKay]

I said that I think Carolina has a slightly better roster. Without sitting down and looking at everyone, we're probably talking about #2 and #3.

A lot of you aren't ready for round two. You're too soft.

If your ego is that fragile that you can't handle minor analysis of the series, then this isn't your time of year.

Either grow a f***ing pair, or pick up soccer and support Real Madrid where you get to hear everyone tell you that you have the best roster every day.

We beat an AHL team. We haven't played a real playoff game and we've proven nothing. The playoffs start next week.

Are you ready for the playoffs or are you ready for Santa Claus to tell you everything will be ok?

You people sicken me.

Based Machinehead is GOAT Machinehead. I'm here for it.

 

[Cuckoo4Kakko]

Let’s summarize the day.

“You want me to just post we are great. Fine. Waaaaaahhhhhhh.”

That was fun. Anyway. Back to talking about the series. Canes roll 4 lines. We do too. Should be fun. Would love to see Chytil game 1.

 

[Killem Dafoe]

So you don't think the Rangers are any good?

 

[Gardner McKay]

I legit was about to change the title to Rangers vs. Carolina when the Canes scored their third.

 

[hardnosed]

Yes and no.

It was a gut check for the Rangers who were coming off of playing the devils defense the night before and needing to travel. They started well and then fatigue caught up before they just gutted out the 3rd for a shutout win. They won’t be faced with the fatigue angle this time, it’s impossible for them to be less rested than the Canes.


Not ironically, that game was 1 of the 2 excellent games your boy played all year. If they get that out of Lindgren they win in 5 or less.

Lindgren isn't my boy. I'm not a fan of the player, per se. I'm a fan of the type of player. And no, I'm not talking about intangibles, toughness or grit. As a former defensive coach, I'm talking about a guy that does everything like a coach would teach, positional and fundamental wise. Obviously he has little if any offensive skills. Yet, every freaking coach that has had him, loves him. There is a reason for that.