Euro: Euro 2020/21 Discussion

[Savi]

Without doing all the crazy calculations, Belgium have 4 possible scenarios left and in only one of them do we get the Group of Death 3rd placed team - if that team + Ukraine are the final 3rd placed teams advancing.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Without doing all the crazy calculations, Belgium have 4 possible scenarios left and in only one of them do we get the Group of Death 3rd placed team - if that team + Ukraine are the final 3rd placed teams advancing.

I mean, yeah, there's 4 possible scenarios, but 2 of them involve blowout losses by Portugal, so I wouldn't exactly be counting on that. I hate to say it - because I think I'm rooting for Belgium in this tournament - but I'd put the odds at Belgium having to play the group F 3rd place team right around 50-50.

EDIT: Interestingly, I looked up the implied odds based on the money line for a non-draw between Spain/Slovakia (5/6 according to bookies) and a Poland non-win (3/5 according to bookies), and the odds come out to exactly 50-50 ( (5/6 * 3/5) = 1/2)

 

[Bures Elbow]

If Poland don't beat Sweden or Slovakia losses by 2 or more to Spain it's Belgium - Portugal unless Portugal get blitzed by France ( silver lining is Santos would surely be gone by then)

Well...that match up and side of the draw is stomach churning.

 

[Vinther]

I have the 4 options a follows:
F3 very likely
C3 & E3 more or less 50/50
B3 very unlikely (need help from both group E and F)

 

[misterchainsaw]

If Poland don't beat Sweden or Slovakia losses by 2 or more to Spain it's Belgium - Portugal unless Portugal get blitzed by France ( silver lining is Santos would surely be gone by then)

Well...that match up and side of the draw is stomach churning.

This is all kinds of wrong. First of all, Portugal getting a win over France would mean the third place finisher in Group F would not be Portugal at all - it would likely be France (it would be Germany if Germany drew to Hungary and Hungary if Hungary somehow beats the Germans). Worth noting that anything other than a 3+ goal loss by Portugal guarantees Group F's 3rd place finisher a spot in the KO round (even if that happens to be one of the other 3 teams).

Secondly, if Poland beats Sweden the Slovakia/Spain match is irrelevant (well, not for them, but for who Belgium will play) - Belgium will play the 3rd place finisher from Group E. This result guarantees the 3rd place finisher from Group E a place in the knock out rounds, which in turn slots them against Belgium.

Third, I don't know where this 2 goal difference requirement keeps popping up from. If Poland does not beat Sweden AND Spain beats Slovakia by one goal, then the Ukraine and Slovakia end up tied on goal differential, and the Ukraine wins the tiebreaker based on total goals scored unless Slovakia scores 2+ goals in their defeat, and wins the tiebreaker on disciplinary record if Slovakia scores exactly 2 in defeat. The only way a one goal loss sees Slovakia in over the Ukraine is if it is a 4-3 game or higher. If the Ukraine gets in, then Belgium plays the group F 3rd place finisher unless Portugal gets blown out. Basically the only result in the Spain/Slovakia match that could force Belgium to play the group of E 3rd place finisher is a draw or Poland beating Sweden.

 

[Bures Elbow]

This is all kinds of wrong. First of all, Portugal getting a win over France would mean the third place finisher in Group F would not be Portugal at all - it would likely be France (it would be Germany if Germany drew to Hungary and Hungary if Hungary somehow beats the Germans). Worth noting that anything other than a 3+ goal loss by Portugal guarantees Group F's 3rd place finisher a spot in the KO round (even if that happens to be one of the other 3 teams).

Secondly, if Poland beats Sweden the Slovakia/Spain match is irrelevant (well, not for them, but for who Belgium will play) - Belgium will play the 3rd place finisher from Group E. This result guarantees the 3rd place finisher from Group E a place in the knock out rounds, which in turn slots them against Belgium.

Third, I don't know where this 2 goal difference requirement keeps popping up from. If Poland does not beat Sweden AND Spain beats Slovakia by one goal, then the Ukraine and Slovakia end up tied on goal differential, and the Ukraine wins the tiebreaker based on total goals scored unless Slovakia scores 2+ goals in their defeat, and wins the tiebreaker on disciplinary record if Slovakia scores exactly 2 in defeat. The only way a one goal loss sees Slovakia in over the Ukraine is if it is a 4-3 game or higher. If the Ukraine gets in, then Belgium plays the group F 3rd place finisher unless Portugal gets blown out. Basically the only result in the Spain/Slovakia match that could force Belgium to play the group of F 3rd place finisher is a draw combined with a Poland not winning against Sweden.

Essentially if Finland and Ukraine go out then our 3F place play Netherlands

If Finland and Slovakia go out, then 3F place plays Belgium

 

[Eye of Ra]

no bronze game in this tournament?

 

[QuietContrarian]

no bronze game in this tournament?

The EC hasn't had one of those since 1980 for some odd reason - The only major footy tournament that does not.

I say odd because it was removed back then, for the reason that the tournament had swindling viewers, and its' popularity was not the same - Especially not for a 3rd place match.

But, it would definitely have more interest today, and it is annoying that it isn't there.
Just play it the day before the final, at a smaller venue - One of many weird UEFA choices.

 

[Eye of Ra]

Robin Olsen is one of the best keepers in the world. If we look at national team play.

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

The EC hasn't had one of those since 1980 for some odd reason - The only major footy tournament that does not.

I say odd because it was removed back then, for the reason that the tournament had swindling viewers, and its' popularity was not the same - Especially not for a 3rd place match.

But, it would definitely have more interest today, and it is annoying that it isn't there.
Just play it the day before the final, at a smaller venue - One of many weird UEFA choices.

People constantly call for the WC 3rd place game to be killed off, so the odds of it being added for the Euro are close to zero.

 

[Eye of Ra]

 

[Bakayoko Ono]

UEFA, and this sport in general, really needs to reassess its approach to head injuries. Pavard, Baumgartner, Danilo... I have no idea how these guys were all allowed to continue to play right after such violent impacts to the head.

 

[HajdukSplit]

So none of the Nations League playoff winners qualified from the group, Slovakia were the only team who won a game but their poor GD hurt them. Macedonia, Scotland, Hungary had their moments but weren’t good enough overall. Doubt UEFA changes the format

 

[kovacro]

One side of the draw is absolutely loaded. Jeebus…Italy, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, France..

The other side of the draw..not so much.

 

[misterchainsaw]

So none of the Nations League playoff winners qualified from the group, Slovakia were the only team who won a game but their poor GD hurt them. Macedonia, Scotland, Hungary had their moments but weren’t good enough overall. Doubt UEFA changes the format

I do struggle to understand why they guarantee a team from Nations League Group D entry into the tournament. I don't necessarily hate that they use the Nations League to allocate playoff spots, but at least make the Group D winners play against the Group A/B stragglers. Make them earn it against the better teams who don't qualify through their qualifying groups.

To follow up on this, here's how I think the play-offs should have looked like (with the same teams gaining entry into the playoffs - all teams from leagues A/B, top 2 in each group from leauge C, group winner from league D:

Iceland v Belarus
Serbia v Bulgaria

Bosnia & Herzegovina v Kosovo
Norway v Isreal

Slovakia v North Macedonia
Scotland v Hungary (holy coincidence - all 4 that won the real playoff are in the same bracket in my ideal method )

Republic of Ireland v Georgia
Northern Ireland v Romania

Can't have B&H play against Kosovo so I guess I'd swap Kosovo and North Macedonia for the final brackets.


EDIT: Also worth noting that for my money the two worst teams in the tournament (Turkey and Finland) qualified through their qualifying groups...

 

[Evilo]

One side of the draw is absolutely loaded. Jeebus…Italy, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, France..

The other side of the draw..not so much.

Spain is not like the others IMO.
Portugal hasn't been good really. Got blown out by Germany, had 85 minutes of boredom before scoring on Hungary and needed that gited penalties to score against France in a game they created exactly 0 chance in.

 

[I am not exposed]

Belgium v Portugal
Italy v Austria
France v Switzerland
Croatia v Spain
Sweden v Ukraine
England v Germany
Netherlands v Czech Republic
Wales v Denmark

In bold which team I think will progress.

 

[Blender]

I'll go with:

Belgium v Portugal
Italy v Austria
France v Switzerland
Croatia v Spain
Sweden v Ukraine
England v Germany
Netherlands v Czech Republic
Wales v Denmark

 

[Evilo]

Belgium v Portugal
Italy v Austria
France v Switzerland
Croatia v Spain
Sweden v Ukraine
England v Germany
Netherlands v Czech Republic
Wales v Denmark

 

[Evilo]

And then
Belgium v Italy
France v Croatia
Sweden v Germany
Netherlands v Denmark

And then
Italy v France
Germany v Netherlands

and finally
France v Germany

 

[Adele Dazeem]

Belgium v Portugal
Italy v Austria
France v Switzerland
Croatia v Spain
Sweden v Ukraine
England v Germany
Netherlands v Czech Republic
Wales v Denmark

 

[cgf]

One side of the draw is absolutely loaded. Jeebus…Italy, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, France..

The other side of the draw..not so much.

Yes, the best teams are amongst those 5, but it's just 5 big teams on that side versus 3 on the other.

 

[Evilo]

Both France's LB, Digne and Lucas, are likely out of the Euro...
I'm thinking Kimpembe will play LB or DD will continue to use Rabiot there.

 

[maclean]

Spain is not like the others IMO.
Portugal hasn't been good really. Got blown out by Germany, had 85 minutes of boredom before scoring on Hungary and needed that gited penalties to score against France in a game they created exactly 0 chance in.

Portugal for me is such a bizarre team. I feel like they always look like trash but somehow they manage to pull wins out of their ass

 

[TheMoreYouKnow]

Portugal for me is such a bizarre team. I feel like they always look like trash but somehow they manage to pull wins out of their ass

Belgium would be foolish to underestimate them. Portugal are always competitive in K.O. matches.