At the Christmas break, let's take a look at the top 10 teams in xGF% 5on5 and bottom 10 teams in xGF%

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Top 10:

Bottom 10:

Out of the top 10 teams, only Florida is not in a playoff spot, while 8 of the 9 playoff spot teams are sitting very comfortably in one. In the bottom 10, no one is currently in the playoffs, with the Islanders being the only one who can remotely challenge for a spot.

Click to read more...

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Rangers drop out of the top 10 and start winning again.
The world is healing.

 

[Zybalto]

Top 10:
View attachment 626366

Bottom 10:
View attachment 626367
Out of the top 10 teams, only Florida is not in a playoff spot, while 8 of the 9 playoff spot teams are sitting very comfortably in one. In the bottom 10, no one is currently in the playoffs, with the Islanders being the only one who can remotely challenge for a spot.

The Islanders sitting 5th and the Panthers 23rd for team save% probably the reason for them being outliers here.

 

[Panda Bear]

I love xG and goals saved above expected (GSAx).

I love that if you're an elite player, you typically outperform xG. If you're a player who can't finish or set people up on a platter, you underperform. Same deal with goalies.

Other major player is luck, obviously, since probability.

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

I love xG and goals saved above expected (GSAx).

I love that if you're an elite player, you typically outperform xG. If you're a player who can't finish or set people up on a platter, you underperform. Same deal with goalies.

Other major player is luck, obviously, since probability.

Yup xGA imho is far more accurate at determining actual defense than offense and goaltending due to the factors you brought up.

 

[Panda Bear]

Yup xGA imho is far more accurate at determining actual defense than offense and goaltending due to the factors you brought up.

I like moneypuck's attempt at accounting for shooting talent for this reason.

 

[Faterson]

8 of the 9 playoff spot teams are sitting very comfortably in one.

Nope, you're mistaken there. The Kings' current play-off spot only appears to be "comfortable" through the illusion of their having played the most games out of all NHL teams.

(The Kings' goal differential speaks for itself: -7. The only team with a negative goal differential out of all 16 teams currently in a play-off spot. That is not a team that can feel comfortable about anything whatsoever...)

 

[Juxtaposer]

Nope, you're mistaken there. The Kings' current play-off spot only appears to be "comfortable" through the illusion of their having played the most games out of all NHL teams.

(The Kings' goal differential speaks for itself: -7. The only team with a negative goal differential out of all 16 teams currently in a play-off spot. That is not a team that can feel comfortable about anything whatsoever...)

The folly of the Kings is goaltending, not 5v5 skaters.

 

[TheDoldrums]

when a team has a high xGF% and they're struggling the biggest reason is almost always goaltending.

 

[Machinehead]

Thrilled that the Rangers are not on the second list.

Rarified air for us.

 

[Petey But Really Jim]

Top 10:
View attachment 626366

Bottom 10:
View attachment 626367
Out of the top 10 teams, only Florida is not in a playoff spot, while 8 of the 9 playoff spot teams are sitting very comfortably in one. In the bottom 10, no one is currently in the playoffs, with the Islanders being the only one who can remotely challenge for a spot.

Hey. No publicity is bad publicity.

 

[VivaLasVegas]

Rangers drop out of the top 10 and start winning again.
The world is healing.

Gallant's first season will be miraculous. Gallant's second season will be frustrating in the extreme. Gallant's third season will not last long into the season.

 

[Faterson]

The folly of the Kings is goaltending, not 5v5 skaters.

It's both. They've definitely been brutal on the defense and atrocious on the penalty kill, quite apart from whoever is in the net.

 

[PaulD]

Bruins are Cup favorites.

Playing .800 right up to Christmas.

They lack nothing

 

[Ratsreign]

when a team has a high xGF% and they're struggling the biggest reason is almost always goaltending.

And/or Because they just can’t bury their chances.

 

[GreenLine]

...
In the bottom 10, no one is currently in the playoffs, with the Islanders being the only one who can remotely challenge for a spot.

I like the idea of the thread but this statement looks off. The Blues are 5 points out with a game in hand. The Red Wings are 7 points out with 4 games in hand. Both can definitely "remotely challenge" for a playoff spot given we're not even half way through the season.

The Red Wings have the goaltending to outperform these metrics over the course of a full season. I suspect the Blues will drop off though.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

I like the idea of the thread but this statement looks off. The Blues are 5 points out with a game in hand. The Red Wings are 7 points out with 4 games in hand. Both can definitely "remotely challenge" for a playoff spot given we're not even half way through the season.

The Red Wings have the goaltending to outperform these metrics over the course of a full season. I suspect the Blues will drop off though.

Looks off but is most likely correct. Playoff teams are usually mostly set by Thanksgiving. Highly doubt either makes it this year.

 

[VivaLasVegas]

Looks off but is most likely correct. Playoff teams are usually mostly set by Thanksgiving. Highly doubt either makes it this year.

Still too early to count the Blues and Wings out, but to get in they will definitely need the wheels to come off on a team before them in addition to upping their own level of play. However, the three teams in front of them (Wild, Flames, Oilers) are not exactly strangers to going through prolonged non-injury funks.

 

[GreenLine]

Looks off but is most likely correct. Playoff teams are usually mostly set by Thanksgiving. Highly doubt either makes it this year.

Yeah they likely don't make it, but to say they can't remotely challenge is premature. OP made it sound like they're nowhere close to a playoff spot

 

[NYR94]

when a team has a high xGF% and they're struggling the biggest reason is almost always goaltending.

Is that Florida's problem?

 

[Ace]

Looks off but is most likely correct. Playoff teams are usually mostly set by Thanksgiving. Highly doubt either makes it this year.

Wasn’t Detroit actually in a playoff spot after thanksgiving?

what now?

 

[HugginThePost]

And/or Because they just can’t bury their chances.

The Calgary Flames say hello!!

 

[Bond]

The Calgary Flames say hello!!

The Flames have been an extra frustrating watch this year. Maybe they can start pulling it together

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Top 10:
View attachment 626366

Bottom 10:
View attachment 626367
Out of the top 10 teams, only Florida is not in a playoff spot, while 8 of the 9 playoff spot teams are sitting very comfortably in one. In the bottom 10, no one is currently in the playoffs, with the Islanders being the only one who can remotely challenge for a spot.

Detroit is 5 points back of NYI with 3 games in hand; surely they could at least challenge?

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Wasn’t Detroit actually in a playoff spot after thanksgiving?

what now?

I guess they'll be the one team that falls out after Thanksgiving every year.