Prospect Info: 2023 Draft 19th overall...Official!.

[Kevin Musto]

Yes.

Too many risers and fallers, and I think the competition and programs just regained their step this year. I think there's significant covid impact on this class overall and it will lead to alot of surprises.

Looks like an active summer, so I think someone will overpay. I'm okay with quite a few trade scenarios moving down.

What the f*** are you talking about?

These guys played full D-1 + draft year seasons.

 

[Melrose Munch]

we need to trade up.

 

[hockeydoug]

What the f*** are you talking about?

These guys played full D-1 + draft year seasons.

They (the bulk of the class) lost tournaments, leagues, hundreds of hours of training, etc. at an important development time. They haven't replaced that lost training and competition time as a class yet and it skews the projections as the relative competition is different.

There are alot of players (outside of the very top) that are overrated significantly and underrated significantly as a result so I would be happy with trading down. Going to be alot of bad picks early and good picks late, more than most years.

 

[hockeydoug]

Hawks should most definitely not move down. We already have so many picks, we do not need to trade down to get more. If anything, we could share the wealth and trade up or trade some of the second round picks for prospects.

I don't want picks before 2026. I want them to get rid of many of them and to begin slotting the system and big team so they can begin the long road of upgrading all the contract slots. For a first plus all the other picks, there will be players to buy. Might be as simple as swapping ELC players to better align the system before too many logjams develop.

It just seems like many want to trade up because they can. I think scouting is at a disadvantage through most of next year.

 

[Toews2Bickell]

we need to trade up.

seems likely if there is a willing participant, they've mentioned putting future 1sts from tampa and toronto on the table to do it

 

[hawksrule]

They (the bulk of the class) lost tournaments, leagues, hundreds of hours of training, etc. at an important development time. They haven't replaced that lost training and competition time as a class yet and it skews the projections as the relative competition is different.

There are alot of players (outside of the very top) that are overrated significantly and underrated significantly as a result so I would be happy with trading down. Going to be alot of bad picks early and good picks late, more than most years.

It’s a plausible theory, but given that they’ve had full seasons the past two years, I don’t know if it’s any more likely than not. Seems more applicable to the 21 and 22 drafts.

 

[hockeydoug]

It’s a plausible theory, but given that they’ve had full seasons the past two years, I don’t know if it’s any more likely than not. Seems more applicable to the 21 and 22 drafts.

Yes, just a theory right now. Lot of arrows pointing towards a shift but it's still a list of anecdotes.

I'm going from a development perspective for the specific age. Social/emotional and habit forming parts more than straight play. Europe, Canada, and Blue states were hit with some game changing rules that will throw much of the old book out the window. Parents didn't handle the pandemic well with their kids and the behaviors have shifted to some new areas that will impact how scouts should assess players.

I have no idea how much they shifted, I haven't even graduated from the facebook school of psychology.

There will be 16K books on this stuff out in 15 years, but in the meantime, I think there's alot more risk or uncertainty involved with mid firsts and 2nd round picks this year than the coming years.

 

[Pez68]

I don't want picks before 2026. I want them to get rid of many of them and to begin slotting the system and big team so they can begin the long road of upgrading all the contract slots. For a first plus all the other picks, there will be players to buy. Might be as simple as swapping ELC players to better align the system before too many logjams develop.

It just seems like many want to trade up because they can. I think scouting is at a disadvantage through most of next year.

So you want the Hawks to be competitive in 2030? Lol

Your COVID theory doesn't really hold water for this draft. Way more applicable for the 2021 and 2022 drafts. This draft class lost a bit of their 15u season. They've had plenty of development time since then. Two full seasons, and, arguably, their most important seasons.

 

[hockeydoug]

So you want the Hawks to be competitive in 2030? Lol

Your COVID theory doesn't really hold water for this draft. Way more applicable for the 2021 and 2022 drafts. This draft class lost a bit of their 15u season. They've had plenty of development time since then. Two full seasons, and, arguably, their most important seasons.

It's about the time lost developing at a certain age of player. Not just time lost. All players lost something from toddlers through Thornton.

I think the impact is biggest on that age group and the scouting hasn't had enough time to adjust for that difference yet. Just an opinion.

The difference between a number 19 OA and 26 OA is really small, but there is a difference. That's all I'm suggesting here. I'm applying different weighting and the 19 OA isn't as valuable to me as it may have been 4 years ago and I'm good with trading down given the landscape.

Now, if the witch doctors in amateur scouting have accounted for the covid behavioral changes, I might throw my opinion in the trash too. I just haven't seen it broken down anywhere.

We'll find out in 15 years.

 

[belfour30]

It's about the time lost developing at a certain age of player. Not just time lost. All players lost something from toddlers through Thornton.

I think the impact is biggest on that age group and the scouting hasn't had enough time to adjust for that difference yet. Just an opinion.

The difference between a number 19 OA and 26 OA is really small, but there is a difference. That's all I'm suggesting here. I'm applying different weighting and the 19 OA isn't as valuable to me as it may have been 4 years ago and I'm good with trading down given the landscape.

Now, if the witch doctors in amateur scouting have accounted for the covid behavioral changes, I might throw my opinion in the trash too. I just haven't seen it broken down anywhere.

We'll find out in 15 years.

They already have 5 picks outside of Bedard in the 1st 2 rounds. KD said he's not using all of them. I'm assuming they're going to upgrade two of them by trading up with #35 and another pick and also # 44 with a cap dump. I expect them to have 3-4 1st rounders by the end of night 1.

 

[hockeydoug]

They already have 5 picks outside of Bedard in the 1st 2 rounds. KD said he's not using all of them.

Yes, 4 2nds in a single year is ridiculous. I think the whole league would be shocked if they kept them all. I was only talking about 19.

I would love to see these spread out or going towards a player on an ELC or rights to one that fills a gap on paper at least (RD prospect with 2nd pair projection or middle six skill wing), or just move those picks to 26 and later.

Great chance to spread it out and minimize the chance of disaster.

 

[belfour30]

They have a legit shot to walk away with 4 1st round picks out of this draft. 3 if they trade up from 19. I'd rather have 2 late 1sts than 4 2nds.

 

[Kurtosis]

I don’t see the value of acquiring additional lower picks. The team should be looking to acquire more potential elite talent, not more fliers.

 

[belfour30]

I don’t see the value of acquiring additional lower picks. The team should be looking to acquire more potential elite talent, not more fliers.

It takes two to tango. I don't see many, if any teams willing to trade a top 15 pick in this particular draft.

Vancouver at 11 is their best shot and they'd probably have to take Boeser and Myers to get it done.

I'd be fine putting TB's 2024 1st on the table to get into the top 10.

 

[Kurtosis]

It takes two to tango. I don't see many, if any teams willing to trade a top 15 pick in this particular draft.

Vancouver at 11 is their best shot and they'd probably have to take Boeser and Myers to get it done.

Which is fine by me.

 

[hockeydoug]

I don’t see the value of acquiring additional lower picks. The team should be looking to acquire more potential elite talent, not more fliers.

Agreed.
Outside of the lotto, how many elite talents are out there even in the first round within 6 years?

At the end of the day they're probably going to be paying UFAs or trading kids for elite/top players. After Bedard and excluding a lotto pick next year, even if they use all their picks, they're only going to likely land 1 other top line/pair player.

 

[ColbyChaos]

Yes, 4 2nds in a single year is ridiculous. I think the whole league would be shocked if they kept them all. I was only talking about 19.

I would love to see these spread out or going towards a player on an ELC or rights to one that fills a gap on paper at least (RD prospect with 2nd pair projection or middle six skill wing), or just move those picks to 26 and later.

Great chance to spread it out and minimize the chance of disaster.

That’s literally what KD has done grabbing picks in 2024 and 2025 and not just going all in on picks in 2023.. have you been in a coma the last year and a half?

 

[hockeydoug]

That’s literally what KD has done grabbing picks in 2024 and 2025 and not just going all in on picks in 2023.. have you been in a coma the last year and a half?

Whoa brother, maybe slow down on the insults.

NYR and Ottawa had later 2nds but he took them now. Besides maybe the Dallas pick, which pick for future drafts do you think was on him and not the other gm? He's been putting later year midround picks into trades too btw.

Nothing really says he's been doing anything other than stripping everything down to the studs primarily for picks as soon as possible.

 

[BLKHKhockey]

For all we know, obtaining a shit ton of 2nd round picks for this draft was intentional.

It's regarded as a great draft class and all signs point to KD wanting to move up. 2024, 2025, 2026 2nd round picks don't hold as much value as 2023's.

There's plenty of time to obtain picks in those subsequent years.

 

[hawksfan50]

So with Craig Button just putting out his latest rankings after what he saw at u18s and reflecting on adjusting from his prior rankings ,he has Ryan Leonard at #12,Gabe Perraultat #15 ,Oliver Moore at #16,Ethan Gauthier at #17,Brayden Yaeger at #18,Nate Danielson at #19,Otto Stenberg at #20,Samuel Honzek at #21and (my favouite) DAVID EDSTROM at #22


I would love to see KD trade up to an earlier pick than #19 so that we land 2 of the options from 12-22 (ie we still draft at 19#
....so that would provide us 3 firsts . #1(Bedard) ...+ our 2nd selection before #19+ #19...

I would want a 1st kibe winger candidate to compliment Bedard and a 1C or 2C who has sone size (because if Bedard plays C hevis not bringing size ..

It is difficukt to believe Leonard falls to #12..but IF it happens and if KD can help them cao-×is...maybe we can get that pick for taking a cobtract contract and #35 and our final pick of roubd 2?

Obviously moving up and how far could affect the value we give for moving uwith Calgary..

If we landed Leonard and either Nate Danielson or David Edstrom I would be very happy..

A n alternative move uo strategy is to takec2 seconds and move back up into the 1s round after pick#19.

In this case I would try to get picks 20,21 or 22.....

At #19 I take Danielson or Edstrom and with the moved up pick using 2 2nd rounders I take Otto Stenberg (Lw) if still there or if not then Honzek ...if he is gone then Honzek (LW)and if both gone then goto eitger Dany Nelson(C) or Anton Whalberg.C) ..

Kd says he wants to pkay BedardxatxCenter...but you can always move Cebters to wing passions.

My target if we get an extra first in the teens before #19 woukd be to secure Danielson or Edstrom .
Complete difference in style..

Danielson may be fastest skater in tgecdraft which KD loves but Edstrom is so maturevin his play he just looks pro right now..
Danielson can drivevpkay but Edstrom is a superb 2 way Big C = the Snowplow ho compliments and helps his wingers be the bestthey can be by making space for them by going to the net ...I was so impressed by his ojay atu18s.. Alwaysin right position...owns the crease...lives at the crease..best net front guy in the draft...going ..physically..6'3187 now and can only get even stronger as he fills out his frame....best screener of goalies in this draft...reminds me of Thomas Holmstrom sceening goalies...great explosive burst in short spaces and off tge biardsxas he wins board battles.. He is nitcsone slow plugger who just has size..he has goid hand-eye ability for defekection goals..while not an elite skater hevus to me above average...he is not going to lug pucks end to end or lead in zone entry stats to drive tge play into thevo-zone..rather he is goibgvto intercept passes in tge neutral zone give off to a winger for zone entry then eitger drove without tge puck to the netcarea or go chase down loose pucks in the corners or battle on the biards to retrieve it then make quick short area passes to hisxwibgers so they can shoot on net in close and he is there for rebounds and deflectionsvor tap ins ..He isxan excellent heavy liftingvsupoirt center..doubgvtge job in all the zones.
His ganevis nature already..he looks lije an NHL pro already.

Of Bedard playsxwibger he woukd bexaxterrfic complimentary Big C helping make life easier for Bedard...If Bedard plays Center tgen Edstrin woukd be a great compliment to Reichel if iReichelvwas a KW on line 2 .

Edstrom is notvflsdhy...just solid and efficiently God alk over the ice.

As to Danielson...6'1(somecreport closer to 6'2) 185 ..so he brings size..but his game is speed Nd driving the play ...moreover a passer rgan goal scorer his speed and elusiveness resukts in in scoribg chances for himself and for his wingers..

I doubt we target both Danielson and Edstrom.. I admit I have only seen Danielson on highlight videos...I do know tgat hexwas not on a great team and tgat he had little help from hisxwibgersxwho often messed up passes he put on their sticks.Also hus -12 this season may be more lack of talent depth of his team than flaws in his dfensivexabikities.. I believe tge prior sesson hexwas +18 ..

I ANY case I would think KD would be targeting either Danielson or Edstrom at #19 hoping 1 or both are still on the buard..

If KD can move up earlier he might hope to get a skilled winger for Bedard ...
If Leonard falls to #12 then I am sure KD uses his weapons(cap space and multiple picks in round 2xabd 3 or futures) to enable it.

More likely if he moves up to 15-18 and still has pick#19...he could take Perreault then 1 od Danielson or Edstrom at #19 or take 1 of these 2 bigger Cebters with the first of these 2 picks and Otto Stenberg at#19..

If the move up pick is only after #19 ...then take Danielson or Edstrom at #19 and hope Stenberg or Honzek still there with the move up pick after #19..if not grab Danny Nelson or Anton Whalberg since they may not make it to pick#35 (or if we used up that pick to move up to the extra first after #19, then you grab thise big Centers in roubd 1 with this 3rd selection).

Even though you can move Centers to wing,I doubt KD is targeting 2 more centers after we take Bedard at #1..but circumstances by how far we move up and who goes off the board ahead of our picks may result i us drafting 3 centers with our 1st 3 picks anyway..
So here is my target list:
1. Bedard at #1.
2. Ryan Leonard if he falls as far as #12 and
and we move up to get him ..not using pick#19 in the trade package.
(But unlikely he falls that far)

3. Gabe Perrault if we move up to 15-18 and he is still on the board and we still have
pick #19...

4. Nate Danielson or David Edstrom...hopefully 1 still on the board...

5.Otto Stenberg or Samuel Honzek

6.Danny Nelson or Anton Whalberg=both Bic Centers who may nkt make it to #35 and who I woukd have targeted at #35 if we still had that pick and if they were still on the board.

You will note that Craig Button has Oliver Moore who was everyone's Darling before u18s...

I think tgatxwhike Moore has great speed andxscoribg ability he still looks small to me and can get pushedxaroubd plus I do nktcsee a lot of hockey sense..he relies on his speed and athleticism but ygat gets neutralized by next level bigger tougher nhl level..andxso I saw a lot of "wastage" by him...ie. hos shots got blocked...onexabd done...and he got knocked around...as a good team lije Sweden casted doubt he could bea 1C at NHL level...besides we have flashy Bedard and flashy Nazar who are smaller cebters.. cannot all be small cebters and I do notvsee Moore as a winger.. so pass on him even if he falls to 16 as Button now has him.

Honzek.at LW ...have not seen him play much ..Have to research him more...But he could me Ithe mix for our 3rd selection of round 1 if we trade back up from the 2nd round or make a cap deal but only move up into the 20s...

If KD ends up with Bedard,Edstrom,Stenberg
that is my preferred top 3 picks of round 1 for us with the most realistic scenarios if we obtain 1 move up deal (either to 15-18or 20-22)...
If we used pick #35 to move up back into round 1 ,then maybe package 1 of our 3 remaining 2nds plus 2 of ourc3rds to move back up to early 2nd or late first if a target he needs to move upto still on the board..
I do not think Gracyn Sawchyn lasts till pick#44.

 

[kmwtrucks]

imo 19 is roughly were the quality falls off depending. figuring that 3-4 d go in the top 19
bedard, fantili, carrlson, smith, mickov, benson dvorsky, leonard, Wood, danielson, perreault, moore yager, sale ritchie, barlow, edstrom, honzek that is 18 pretty solid forwards you should have your pick of at least 2 or 3 of these guys

D: Reinbacker, pellikka, willander and maybe Simashev 3-4

 

[hawksrule]

Whoa brother, maybe slow down on the insults.

NYR and Ottawa had later 2nds but he took them now. Besides maybe the Dallas pick, which pick for future drafts do you think was on him and not the other gm? He's been putting later year midround picks into trades too btw.

Nothing really says he's been doing anything other than stripping everything down to the studs primarily for picks as soon as possible.

He specifically wanted the Toronto 2025 1st to spread them out.

 

[BHawk21]

He specifically wanted the Toronto 2025 1st to spread them out.

thats before we got Bedard...

That could change things.

 

[piteus]

thats before we got Bedard...

That could change things.

I don't think so. Chief Scout Mike Doneghey just said on Monday that they are trying to spread out the draft assets. He said too many draft picks in successive years is tough to manage for any organization. We had 11 picks last year. Add another 11 this year ... that's 22 in 2 years. Doneghey implied Davidson is trying to spread the draft assets through more years if possible ... or possibly trade a few to move up.

 

[Pez68]

It's about the time lost developing at a certain age of player. Not just time lost. All players lost something from toddlers through Thornton.

I think the impact is biggest on that age group and the scouting hasn't had enough time to adjust for that difference yet. Just an opinion.

The difference between a number 19 OA and 26 OA is really small, but there is a difference. That's all I'm suggesting here. I'm applying different weighting and the 19 OA isn't as valuable to me as it may have been 4 years ago and I'm good with trading down given the landscape.

Now, if the witch doctors in amateur scouting have accounted for the covid behavioral changes, I might throw my opinion in the trash too. I just haven't seen it broken down anywhere.

We'll find out in 15 years.

Scouts can very, very, very rarely pickup on those small differences normally... So I just don't follow this reasoning at all.