Salary Cap: 2020-21 roster vs. Cap

[lilidk]

And please let Bowey walk.

Or keep him as forward

 

[Tetsuo]

Update:

The guys we have + estimations:

1. Dylan Larkin - 6.1M
2. Anthony Mantha - RFA - 6.0M (estimation, 5-6 year contract, some injury concerns)
3. Tyler Bertuzzi - RFA - 5.0M (estimation, 7-8 year contract, no concerns)
4. Darren Helm - 3.85M
5. Valtteri Filppula - 3.0M
6. Robby Fabbri - 2.95M (2-year deal done)
7. Luke Glendening - 1.8M
8. Filip Zadina - 925k
9. Evgeny Svechnikov - 874k (1-year deal done)
10. Michael Rasmussen - 832k
11. Christoffer Ehn - RFA - 850k (qualifying offer?)
12. Dmytro Timashov - RFA - 765k (qualifying offer?)
-------------------------------------
13. Mathias Brome - 925k (1-year deal done)
14. Frans Nielsen, 5.25M
15. Justin Abdelkader, 4.25M

Offence total: 43.4M

1. LD Dan DeKeyser, 5.0M
2. RD Filip Hronek, 714k (hope he gets extended very soon even though he has 1-year left that bargain ELC)
3. LD Patrik Nemeth, 3.0M
4. RD Madison Bowey, 1.2M (RFA, estimation)
5. LD Dennis Cholowski, 894k
6. RD Alex Biega, 875k
7. RD Gustav Lindström, 776k
(8. RD Moritz Seider, 925k)

1A. Starting Goalie - 1.0M - 7.0M
1B. Jonathan Bernier - 3.0M

Howard let walk. Maybe hunt for a cheap option, but took just that basic salary (1M ) on calculations to reach a final cap total. If we are after Lehner and he commands 7 million, we need 6M for that extra space.

All caphits Total: 59.893M ~kind of cap floor.

1. No way Mantha takes $6M for multiple years. I'm thinking he either takes $5 to $6M for one year, as last "prove it" sorta bridge deal or he signs for $7 to $8M long term. When he is on his game, he is a force, and is easily worth north of $9M a year.
2. Bert for $5M is a bit rich. He's not a line-driving W by any means, so I think he signs for something like $4.6 for at least 5 years.
3. I'm fine with qualifying Ehn and Timashov, they are at least young replacement level players.
4. Don't forget that Abby is likely to be buried which provides with ~$1M of cap relief.
5. Agreed on Hronek, the earlier he's extended the cheaper it will be.
6. I think Bowey should be extended for two years at about the rate you list, if only to have him as an expansion draft option and that he's a young-enough player that it's okay if he isn't taken.
7. 1A starting goalie is certainly our most interesting opening this year. We legitimately need a decent netminder, and thankfully there is a vast amount of starting talent that will be available this season. Hopefully Lehner wins the Cup this season and will be looking for both a challenge and a payday. I think he could do some real good in net for us, even if he will be fairly old by the time we are serious again.

In general, I agree with the point that we shouldn't wait to sign FA forever, so depending on the price point Krug comes in at I would actually be in favor of signing him. To all the detractors: think of it as getting a younger Rafalski or Green. He won't make us so much better that we finish higher than 3rd last, but he will force teams to play us more honestly and improve the overall play of our young players dramatically. And having a vet with serious playoff experience and league-recognized skill can't really hurt us. It's not like we stand a very good chance of winning the lottery anyway.

 

[Henkka]

Evolving hockey predictions:

7.3M for Krug (new team)
6.5M for Mantha (same team)
5.3M for Bertuzzi (same team)
4.2M for Haula (new team)

Not sure are those the best predictions, term is also a huge factor, but gives the ballpark.

Also remember these were estimated before anything happened with corona. Then it was expected an inflated market. Now that's kind of the opposite. Less projected cap rise, lower long-term caphits.

 

[odin1981]

Evolving hockey predictions:

7.3M for Krug (new team)
6.5M for Mantha (same team)
5.3M for Bertuzzi (same team)
4.2M for Haula (new team)

Not sure are those the best predictions, term is also a huge factor, but gives the ballpark.

Also remember these were estimated before anything happened with corona. Then it was expected an inflated market. Now that's kind of the opposite. Less projected cap rise, lower long-term caphits.

Since the cap will remain set in place for three years, outside of superstar talent expect contract's to remain the going rates for last year's ufa's. The UFA market will have a wage freeze and not increase because the cap won't either.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Since the cap will remain set in place for three years, outside of superstar talent expect contract's to remain the going rates for last year's ufa's. The UFA market will have a wage freeze and not increase because the cap won't either.

If anything, I think UFA's make slightly less than last years mkt.value b/c teams now have to reup their RFAs to bridge/UFA & ELCs to bridge/RFAs.

 

[Henkka]

If anything, I think UFA's make slightly less than last years mkt.value b/c teams now have to reup their RFAs to bridge/UFA & ELCs to bridge/RFAs.

Or they could just take shorter deals, like 3 years (mostly RFAs) which will push caphit down. Corona cap is gonna stand pat for 3 years, then, at same time, the big TV money jumps in.

 

[Inspiration]

This offseason is going to be an opportunity for the deep-pocketed clubs to separate themselves from the rest of the pack to a greater extent than perhaps any year in the cap era. As a result, I suspect this upcoming year will also serve as a referendum on the Chris Ilitch-led ownership - we know Mike was willing to spend whatever it would take to build a winner, but Chris has yet to be put to the test due to the rebuild. I'd like to think that Yzerman would not have returned to the franchise without guarantee of the full financial backing of the current ownership, but it's all speculation until we see it in action. If the Red Wings don't use fully their current flexibility to gain a significant advantage (through some combination of signings, trades, or taking on salary for assets), I think some minor concern with the current ownership group is warranted.

 

[Gniwder]

Detroit would need to qualify him at $1.05M. Given the way teams will be squeezed from both a cash and cap perspective, it wouldn't shock me if the Red Wings decided that was too much for a borderline NHLer.

Both problems could be solved by offering him a 2 way contract.

Let's keep in mind he cleared waivers, it's not even really necessary to qualify him. Two way contract at league min, if he doesn't take it then let him try to find another job.

 

[Larkin2AA]

Wasn't sure where to post this, but sounds like a guy who is on his way out.

 

[lhsgolf19]

I don’t know about the rest of you but a Top 4 in some order potentially of Krug, DeKeyser, Hronek and Seider next year has me really intrigued.

With Nemeth and Lindstrom as a potential shutdown 3rd pair

We’ll see

 

[Henkka]

Krug on a one-year deal: “I’m very opposed to that. I’ve bet on myself. I’ve taken shorter-term deals, less amount of money my whole career now. This is my time in terms of my value at its peak. I have the ability, I’m in a position now where I need to make the most of it.”

Heard Bruins is offering 6.5M for him and he is not gonna accept that.

 

[Inspiration]

I don’t know about the rest of you but a Top 4 in some order potentially of Krug, DeKeyser, Hronek and Seider next year has me really intrigued.

With Nemeth and Lindstrom as a potential shutdown 3rd pair

We’ll see

How certain are we that DeKeyser is better than Nemeth?

 

[lhsgolf19]

How certain are we that DeKeyser is better than Nemeth?

well either/or lol

 

[Henkka]

How certain are we that DeKeyser is better than Nemeth?

Prime DeKeyser is better. We'll have to wait and see in what condition he is after injury.

 

[FMichael]

Heard Bruins is offering 6.5M for him and he is not gonna accept that.

Chances are some GM will offer the $$$, and term of his liking - however that team might not be Boston, and it could be for a rival he may not want to play for.

Decisions - decisions.....

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

As much as I've liked Krug's career accomplishments, anything over $6x5yrs is a mistake. I'd even go so far as saying $7Mx5 b/c of the $ impending quasi-bidding-war. For a Top4 PMD that is Already Sheltered @ 5on5, small & short (height/reach/strides), aging & average in the Dzone at best, the risk outweighs the rewards imho. He'll likely get $7-8 x 6/7yrs from some GM, I just hope it's not ours.

We need a better 5on5 producer & at least above average Dzone coverage Top4 LHS, PMD... Also Hronek can handle PP1 duties & grow into the role further with the core.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

As much as I've liked Krug's career accomplishments, anything over $6x5yrs is a mistake. I'd even go so far as saying $7Mx5 b/c of the $ impending quasi-bidding-war. For a Top4 PMD that is Already Sheltered @ 5on5, small & short (height/reach/strides), aging & average in the Dzone at best, the risk outweighs the rewards imho. He'll likely get $7-8 x 6/7yrs from some GM, I just hope it's not ours.

We need a better 5on5 producer & at least above average Dzone coverage Top4 LHS, PMD... Also Hronek can handle PP1 duties & grow into the role further with the core.

Agreed. Krug scares me.

and if he won’t take 6.5 from Boston what do you think he’s going to want from our shit team?

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Agreed. Krug scares me.

and if he won’t take 6.5 from Boston what do you think he’s going to want from our shit team?

Yzerman is too smart to be held hostage, I'm sure he knows Krug's strengths & weaknesses 100X better than any of us armchair GM's. To answer your question: as much $ as possible since he knows we have capspace. It could be posturing on his end with B's & the other 30 GM's though also.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

Yzerman is too smart to be held hostage, I'm sure he knows Krug's strengths & weaknesses 100X better than any of us armchair GM's. To answer your question: as much $ as possible since he knows we have capspace. It could be posturing on his end with B's & the other 30 GM's though also.

I don’t really want him for 6 mil to be honest.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

I don’t really want him for 6 mil to be honest.

I'd be okay with $6M/3yrs max. We don't need our version of Justin Faulk.

 

[Henkka]

As much as I've liked Krug's career accomplishments, anything over $6x5yrs is a mistake. I'd even go so far as saying $7Mx5 b/c of the $ impending quasi-bidding-war. For a Top4 PMD that is Already Sheltered @ 5on5, small & short (height/reach/strides), aging & average in the Dzone at best, the risk outweighs the rewards imho. He'll likely get $7-8 x 6/7yrs from some GM, I just hope it's not ours.

We need a better 5on5 producer & at least above average Dzone coverage Top4 LHS, PMD... Also Hronek can handle PP1 duties & grow into the role further with the core.

This is bullshit. Just bullshit.

I just watched his playoff stats from last 2 years, and he is god damn in line with guys like Makar and Theodore. These three names are together in many advanced statistics.

And these data samples are against the hardest possible opponents at post-season. No easy regular season games to fool the stats. He would be huge upgrade versus our current guys in this teams for sure. This is f***ing crazy that people won't understand it. Our current guys are horrible, and even regressing Krug is a an upgrade for many years. Even though he would regress, he will be for sure better than any Wings current defenceman for next 5 years.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

This is bullshit. Just bullshit.

I just watched his playoff stats from last 2 years, and he is god damn in line with guys like Makar and Theodore. These three names are together in many advanced statistics.

And these data samples are against the hardest possible opponents at post-season. No easy regular season games to fool the stats. He would be huge upgrade versus our current guys in this teams for sure. This is f***ing crazy that people won't understand it. Our current guys are horrible, and even regressing Krug is a an upgrade for many years. Even though he would regress, he will be for sure better than any Wings current defenseman for next 5 years.

Henkka, go read the Torey Krug thread on the trade board. It's littered with "sheltered @ 5on5" & "below avg/avg. defensively" etc. etc. Many of those opinions are also coming from Bruins fans, which removes any chance of bias'.

I've been reading stuff on Krug for the last year & there's more to possibly dislike than to like for many people's comfort level, at least for that much cap $7-8M+ & term 6-7yrs. Besides Hronek can/will fill that PP1 slot with similar results.

SY knows best anyway, so if he's willing to bring Krug here at a palatable $ & term, then I'll be okay with it. Also 5 yrs from now Seider will be entering his prime, Hronek still in his prime + whoever we sign/draft that could be better.
We're in deep guano if a 35 yr old Krug is our best Dman in 5 yrs, ouch.

I'll take your word for it you compared advanced metrics & Krug looked good in comparison to the Makar's etc. vs. higher% QoC's, but there is a reason why soo many people think what I stated...and I do value advanced stats ~ equally to the eye-ball test, so again no bias there. Heck, I'd love to have a 50pt Dman (likely 35-40+ in Detroit), but the Term especially + the high $ cost doesn't sit well with me. In Yzerman I trust.

 

[Winger98]

question on Krug, has he had any serious injury issues throughout his career? Maybe concussion? (I just don't remember right now).

the big concern with Krug going forward has to be that his speed slips and the rest of his game can't compensate. But how much can we realistically expect his skating to fall outside of some serious injury wrecking him? Is he going to be the same player in four years? No, but I don't think he is necessarily going to be materially worse. Maybe instead of 22 minutes a night, he averages 20. He'll still scoot around pretty well, he'll still have those offensive instincts that we'd be paying for this offseason.

I have a hard time working up a real dislike for signing Krug. I won't be heartbroken if he goes elsewhere, but he instantly makes this team better in at ES and on the power play, and slides in nicely on that left side next to Seider. if we need his cap space in a four or five years, I have faith in Yzerman finding a way to make it happen. But that's a bridge that can be crossed when we get there.

 

[MBH]

1. No way Mantha takes $6M for multiple years. I'm thinking he either takes $5 to $6M for one year, as last "prove it" sorta bridge deal or he signs for $7 to $8M long term. When he is on his game, he is a force, and is easily worth north of $9M a year.
2. Bert for $5M is a bit rich. He's not a line-driving W by any means, so I think he signs for something like $4.6 for at least 5 years.
3. I'm fine with qualifying Ehn and Timashov, they are at least young replacement level players.
4. Don't forget that Abby is likely to be buried which provides with ~$1M of cap relief.
5. Agreed on Hronek, the earlier he's extended the cheaper it will be.
6. I think Bowey should be extended for two years at about the rate you list, if only to have him as an expansion draft option and that he's a young-enough player that it's okay if he isn't taken.
7. 1A starting goalie is certainly our most interesting opening this year. We legitimately need a decent netminder, and thankfully there is a vast amount of starting talent that will be available this season. Hopefully Lehner wins the Cup this season and will be looking for both a challenge and a payday. I think he could do some real good in net for us, even if he will be fairly old by the time we are serious again.

In general, I agree with the point that we shouldn't wait to sign FA forever, so depending on the price point Krug comes in at I would actually be in favor of signing him. To all the detractors: think of it as getting a younger Rafalski or Green. He won't make us so much better that we finish higher than 3rd last, but he will force teams to play us more honestly and improve the overall play of our young players dramatically. And having a vet with serious playoff experience and league-recognized skill can't really hurt us. It's not like we stand a very good chance of winning the lottery anyway.

All for signing a D if it's the right fit.
Krug isn't.
He's not a great 5 on 5 producer.
He's constantly a minus player.

I just don't see how adding a 5'9 defensive liability, so-so offensive guy who's basically a powerplay specialist, makes sense for this team - especially given the expected cost.

For me, I'm comfortable dedicating this season to Cholowski on LD.
Dekeyser/Cholowski/Nemeth.

On RD, I take a hard look at Vatanen, Brodie or Braun and go with Hronek, Seider and whomever you sign.


Dekeyser Seider
Nemeth Hronek
Cholowksi Vatanen

It's fashionable to rip Cholo to shit these days. But if there's a chance at Cholo being a useful 5-10 year defenseman for this team, I want to promote that chance.


Should have signed Krug out of college. You don't go sign him now that he wants 8M a year. He could have been a great trade chip.

 

[Tetsuo]

All for signing a D if it's the right fit.
Krug isn't.
He's not a great 5 on 5 producer.
He's constantly a minus player.

I just don't see how adding a 5'9 defensive liability, so-so offensive guy who's basically a powerplay specialist, makes sense for this team - especially given the expected cost.

For me, I'm comfortable dedicating this season to Cholowski on LD.
Dekeyser/Cholowski/Nemeth.

On RD, I take a hard look at Vatanen, Brodie or Braun and go with Hronek, Seider and whomever you sign.

I think Lindstrom/Bowie will be the cheaper options for bottom-pair RD. They've impressed me more than Cholowski last season at the very least. I'm not really holding out much hope on Cholowski to be anything more than a bottom-pair 2nd PP guy at this point.

See Krug is the Mike Green replacement, and we don't need him to play amazing defensively. DDK and Seider will likely be tasked with handling the tough defensive minutes, we need someone to spring offense, especially on the PP. If we go with your suggested left side, I'm not certain by more than 5 wins.

I'm thinking of the following pairings if we sign Krug:

Dekeyser-Hronek
Krug-Seider
Nemeth-Lindstrom/Bowey

This way we mix offensive and defensive defensemen and have a legit option on both PP units for PPQB. If Cholowski is able to earn his spot, awesome, but I'm not counting on it by any means.