Buffalo Bills Post-Draft Discussion

[Husko]

Speaking of free agents, yannick ngakoue is coming off a down year but is someone that the Bills have been interested in before. I wonder if he could be a fit for a Leonard Flloyd reclamation project type deal.

 

[Sabreality]

Speaking of free agents, yannick ngakoue is coming off a down year but is someone that the Bills have been interested in before. I wonder if he could be a fit for a Leonard Flloyd reclamation project type deal.

yeah was looking at FA DE and he jumped out, think theres probably enough left in the tank to help out in the rotation.

 

[Dubi Doo]

Speaking of free agents, yannick ngakoue is coming off a down year but is someone that the Bills have been interested in before. I wonder if he could be a fit for a Leonard Flloyd reclamation project type deal.

I wanted him last year. He's purely a pass rusher, but that speed is something we lack.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I guess thinking about it in terms of what we've replaced in terms of snaps:

• Davis -> Coleman
• Diggs -> Samuel
• Shakir -> Shakir
• Sherfield -> Hollins
• Harty -> ????? (155 snaps)

Obviously it won't be a 1-to-1 anywhere, but Harty's snaps not being replaced (in addition to asking Coleman and Samuel to take on that many snaps being a big ask, even if Shakir's role grows) certainly seems like a hole at WR4/5. There's certainly guys that could compete for it, but a more real veteran option would be nice, especially someone with speed. Looking at free agency:

• Renfrow (slot only)
• Robinson (slow)
• OBJ (probably uninterested in being a 4)
• Gallup (I like it if he's cheap)
• Boyd (slot only)
• MVS (one trick pony, but does that trick well)
• DJ Chark (I like it if he's cheap)
• Hardman
• Goodwin

See aforementioned discussion at the top of this thread.

You have to factor in Knox & Kincaid to those snap counts.

They aren't going to be carrying ten WRs on the roster either. It might only be five. I don't see them giving up on Shorter so soon, they seem to like both Hamler/Isabella, and Beane even went as far to mention Shavers in his latest PC.

I also don't see any splashes happening - either via trade or FA. Beane has even said as much. They simply don't have the cap space.

 

[Husko]

See aforementioned discussion at the top of this thread.

You have to factor in Knox & Kincaid to those snap counts.

They aren't going to be carrying ten WRs on the roster either. It might only be five. I don't see them giving up on Shorter so soon, they seem to like both Hamler/Isabella, and Beane even went as far to mention Shavers in his latest PC.

I also don't see any splashes happening - either via trade or FA. Beane has even said as much. They simply don't have the cap space.

They have about $3 million in space now and another $10 million in space as of July 1. I'm not expecting a Deebo type trade, but two vets totalling up to 10 (including incentives) against the cap, one at WR and one at DE, that I can totally see. Not splashes, but moves to round out the roster. Last year they were in worse cap shape post draft than this year, and they still signed Murray, Ford, Shell, and Flloyd. I'm sure they'll make a couple analogous moves this year.

 

[Husko]

Money for signing rookies often gets brought up as something they need cap space for and why our (eventual) $13 million in cap space isn't as big as it appears. This year I'm not expecting our rookie class to be incredible expensive against the cap. Remember they only cost cap money if the contract signed is greater than the contract it's replacing. Our #53 cap hit is currently $985,000. Ray Davis's projected cap hit is $973,000, so only the first three picks could add to the cap:

Player	Projected Cap	K Replaced	Added Cap
Keon Coleman	$1,812,000	$987,000	$827,000
Cole Bishop	$1,191,000	$985,000	$206,000
Dewayne Carter	$1,021,000	$985,000	$36,000

Total cap added: $1,069,000

And that's not even considering the implications if it's a bigger contract that gets cut (Mc'Kitty, Buechele, and Hamler are all over 1 million and likely to get cut). On the whole, when thinking about rookie contract budget, it's really only about a million in cap space.

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

What’s more odd, me being mildly annoyed at how they spent a late 6th and 7th round pick, while otherwise being complimentary of the draft, or you going this hard to invalidate my annoyance?

And as I’ve since said, Clayton being eligible for the pathways exemption completely changes the calculus of the pick. All for it knowing he won’t be eligible to be stolen like other PS designees. No threat of losing him like most of the other lineman we’ve tried stashing.

Asking you to explain where you got "tackle play is near impossible to find in later rounds" is going hard lol? Seemed like you made some stuff up & were having trouble defending it. Now someone is odd for asking you to source your takes?

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Money for signing rookies often gets brought up as something they need cap space for and why our (eventual) $13 million in cap space isn't as big as it appears. This year I'm not expecting our rookie class to be incredible expensive against the cap. Remember they only cost cap money if the contract signed is greater than the contract it's replacing. Our #53 cap hit is currently $985,000. Ray Davis's projected cap hit is $973,000, so only the first three picks could add to the cap:

Player	Projected Cap	K Replaced	Added Cap
Keon Coleman	$1,812,000	$987,000	$827,000
Cole Bishop	$1,191,000	$985,000	$206,000
Dewayne Carter	$1,021,000	$985,000	$36,000

Total cap added: $1,069,000

And that's not even considering the implications if it's a bigger contract that gets cut (Mc'Kitty, Buechele, and Hamler are all over 1 million and likely to get cut). On the whole, when thinking about rookie contract budget, it's really only about a million in cap space.

This literally goes against everything Beane said in his most recent PC. You also have to factor in large practice squads & in season wiggle room.



I'm not saying they won't sign ANYONE. But i seriously doubt it will be the premier players left on the open market.

 

[Husko]

This literally goes against everything Beane said in his most recent PC. You also have to factor in large practice squads & in season wiggle room.



I'm not saying they won't sign ANYONE. But i seriously doubt it will be the premier players left on the open market.

How does saying their rookies will only cost $1 million cap space go against everything Beane says in his press conference? Is there something factually inaccurate about my numbers?

No one is talking about top of market guys.

 

[Husko]

Asking you to explain where you got "tackle play is near impossible to find in later rounds" is going hard lol? Seemed like you made some stuff up & were having trouble defending it. Now someone is odd for asking you to source your takes?

Open Source Football: NFL Draft Value Chart

Constructing surplus value from scratch.

opensourcefootball.com

What analytical draft value curves are missing about NFL roster building

We've come a long way since the days of the Jimmy Johnson draft chart, but newer analytical draft value curves are still missing critical context

unexpectedpoints.substack.com

Aside from QB, OT has the harshest curve of any position no matter what metric you use. It's next to impossible to find starters outside of the first and even competent backups outside of day 2. It's why a good backup swing tackle makes more than a starting RB. Now there's an argument to be made that because it's so hard to hit we should just keep taking swings late in the draft, but I'd rather use those resources on players with a more realistic chance to contribute or be stashed like specialists, injury redshirts, etc.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

How does suggesting they're going to sign a couple of modest contracts go against everything Beane says in his press conference? No one is talking about top of market guys.

You suggesting that those rookie contracts will cost next to nothing & they will have all of White's cap money to spend on FAs. That isn't going to happen. Beane literally said it.

And I'd argue that the guys you're talking about ARE top of the market as far as best remaining players are concerned.

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

Open Source Football: NFL Draft Value Chart

Constructing surplus value from scratch.

opensourcefootball.com

View attachment 861285

View attachment 861287

What analytical draft value curves are missing about NFL roster building

We've come a long way since the days of the Jimmy Johnson draft chart, but newer analytical draft value curves are still missing critical context

unexpectedpoints.substack.com

View attachment 861281

View attachment 861284

Aside from QB, OT has the harshest curve of any position no matter what metric you use. It's next to impossible to find starters outside of the first and even competent backups outside of day 2. It's why a good backup swing tackle makes more than a starting RB. Now there's an argument to be made that because it's so hard to hit we should just keep taking swings late in the draft, but I'd rather use those resources on players with a more realistic chance to contribute or be stashed like specialists, injury redshirts, etc.

I'm not seeing any difference between the positions when it comes to the late rounds. Looks like tackles are even one of your best bets of finding 2nd tier players around 20% success rate when other positions look to be around 10% in the late rounds. If anything GMs should be targeting OT, LB, and DBs in the late rounds based on success rates.

 

[Husko]

You suggesting that those rookie contracts will cost next to nothing & they will have all of White's cap money to spend on FAs. That isn't going to happen. Beane literally said it.

And I'd argue that the guys you're talking about ARE top of the market as far as best remaining players are concerned.

The rookies will cost about $1 million in cap space against what we have committed right now. That's not what I'm suggesting. That's a fact.

I didn't say they will have all of White's cap money for free agents. They could, but they will want to reserve some money for in-season moves, trades, etc. And yes, practice squad will take some money too.

I'm talking about adding a backup pass rusher and #4/5 WR for a few million each. Those aren't top of market moves. They made moves like that last year, they'll probably make them again this year. I don't get what you think is even mildly controversial about that.

 

[Husko]

Listening to Beane carefully, it sounds like he is saying they budget ~4 million for 51 -> 53 + PS contracts. So I'd say take about $5 million off any cap space you think they have for 51/53 expansion, PS, and rookie contracts.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

NFL Draft 2024: Mel Kiper Jr., others grade Buffalo Bills’ draft class

Here is what Kiper said about Buffalo's draft haul.

www.newyorkupstate.com

Did Buffalo Bills stiff-arm Patriots’ attempt at landing Keon Coleman in Round 1 of NFL Draft?

The Bills shot down a trade down attempt from the Patriots at the end of the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft.

www.newyorkupstate.com

 

[ValJamesDuex]

List of Bill's UDFA and Camp invites, gotta love Keaton Bill's!
Anyone like any of these guys ?


updated

QB – Gunnar Watson, Troy (Invited to Minicamp)

RB – Frank Gore Jr., Southern Miss

WR – Lawrence Keys, Tulane

WR – Xavier Johnson, Ohio State

OT – Gunner Britton, Auburn

OT – Mike Edwards, Campbell

OG – Keaton Bills, Utah

DT – Branson Deen, Miami (FL)

LB – David Ugwoegbu, Oklahoma

LB – Stephen Hills, South Dakota (Invited to Minicamp)

CB – Keni-H Lovely, Western Michigan

CB – Sheridan Jones, Clemson (Invited to Minicamp)

S – Al Walcott, Baylor (Invited to Minicamp)

P – Jack Browning, San Diego State

 

[Dingo44]

Odd

WR Quintez Cephus, Bills reach 1-year deal

The NFL reinstated Cephus earlier this month following his year-long suspension for violating the league's gambling policy.

theathletic.com

 

[SabresFan26]

Odd

WR Quintez Cephus, Bills reach 1-year deal

The NFL reinstated Cephus earlier this month following his year-long suspension for violating the league's gambling policy.

theathletic.com

A lot of issues even before the gambling with Detroit. Had some big red flags while at Wisconsin.

Hopefully he’s learned. Not the typical Beane signing.

 

[Selanne00008]

You suggesting that those rookie contracts will cost next to nothing & they will have all of White's cap money to spend on FAs. That isn't going to happen. Beane literally said it.

And I'd argue that the guys you're talking about ARE top of the market as far as best remaining players are concerned.

One Possible answer to your rebuttal is that Beane is being coy. Would it benefit him to say, well Sal, I have calculated our cap space for remaining free agents down to a nickel and we could blow another 9.8 Million come June 1st. We could always restructure too and fit Deebo in somehow Sal. Picked a high end name, but that's obviously not realistic.

It could be some smoke and you just never know. I agree with Husko. Not top dollar, but they'll possibly bring in a $3-$5 Million WR and D Line guy come June that is not getting what tthey'd expect to get on the market and needs to settle for a prove it deal.

 

[Djp]

I guess thinking about it in terms of what we've replaced in terms of snaps:

• Davis -> Coleman
• Diggs -> Samuel
• Shakir -> Shakir
• Sherfield -> Hollins
• Harty -> ????? (155 snaps)

Therr are others on the roster. KJ Hamler is speed guy.

Obviously it won't be a 1-to-1 anywhere, but Harty's snaps not being replaced (in addition to asking Coleman and Samuel to take on that many snaps being a big ask, even if Shakir's role grows) certainly seems like a hole at WR4/5. There's certainly guys that could compete for it, but a more real veteran option would be nice, especially someone with speed. Looking at free agency:

• Renfrow (slot only)
• Robinson (slow)
• OBJ (probably uninterested in being a 4)
• Gallup (I like it if he's cheap)
• Boyd (slot only)
• MVS (one trick pony, but does that trick well)
• DJ Chark (I like it if he's cheap)
• Hardman
• Goodwin

Cant say its them but maybe they get one vet for a low contract

What does the roster look like

I look at it as
23 off
23 def
4 ST (K, P,,LS, returner)
3 wild cards for IR in season or prospects.

23 offense..

2 QB, 3 TE, 9 OL, 4 RB/FB, 5 WR.

Coleman, samuel, dhskir are safe at WR. Its 2 WRs and returner to decide.

 

[ValJamesDuex]

A lot of issues even before the gambling with Detroit. Had some big red flags while at Wisconsin.

Hopefully he’s learned. Not the typical Beane signing.

No problems here giving a player a second chance in a league that pimps legalized gambling

 

[Jim Bob]

Dane Brugler on 2024 Bills Draft Class

docs.google.com

Here is what Dane Brugler's The Beast said about the Bills draft picks.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

One Possible answer to your rebuttal is that Beane is being coy. Would it benefit him to say, well Sal, I have calculated our cap space for remaining free agents down to a nickel and we could blow another 9.8 Million come June 1st. We could always restructure too and fit Deebo in somehow Sal. Picked a high end name, but that's obviously not realistic.

It could be some smoke and you just never know. I agree with Husko. Not top dollar, but they'll possibly bring in a $3-$5 Million WR and D Line guy come June that is not getting what tthey'd expect to get on the market and needs to settle for a prove it deal.

(also @Husko)

He wasn't being coy - he flat out said not to expect any big signings but to expect some minor ones. He has a strong track record of living up to his word.

The fact that guys like Deebo are even having to be mentioned is embarrassing IMO. It shows such a lack of understanding of their cap situation, a lack of respect even.

He could restructure some contracts - but i think it's pretty obvious that he won't. This is the 'reset' year where he's taking his medicine. He's not cutting extremely productive/important players like Mitch Morse otherwise.

I would generally agree with @Husko's calculations above. Let's assume they wind up with ~$8m in cap space after rookie contracts, final roster moves, etc. You still need to allow in season wiggle room, still need to consider any possible mid season trades if a big time player goes down (eg White/Douglas), you can't leave yourself with zero.

So it's possible they could sign a $2-3m DE & a $2-3m WR. Or one single player at either of those positions making $5-6m - not two.

Here's where i think we really disagree though. You're likely not getting the calibre of player being discussed for such low salaries. EG Ngakoue was being paid $10.5m last year, MVS $10m, Boyd $10.75m, OBJ $15m, Gallup $11.5m.

There are 28 other teams in the league currently with more cap space. Even after the $10m from White there will be 18 teams with more space - not accounting for any other post 1st June cuts (i don't have a full list).

I think guys in the next tier such as DJ Chark are more realistic targets to discuss.

 

[Jim Bob]

I guess thinking about it in terms of what we've replaced in terms of snaps:

• Davis -> Coleman
• Diggs -> Samuel
• Shakir -> Shakir
• Sherfield -> Hollins
• Harty -> ????? (155 snaps)

Obviously it won't be a 1-to-1 anywhere, but Harty's snaps not being replaced (in addition to asking Coleman and Samuel to take on that many snaps being a big ask, even if Shakir's role grows) certainly seems like a hole at WR4/5. There's certainly guys that could compete for it, but a more real veteran option would be nice, especially someone with speed. Looking at free agency:

• Renfrow (slot only)
• Robinson (slow)
• OBJ (probably uninterested in being a 4)
• Gallup (I like it if he's cheap)
• Boyd (slot only)
• MVS (one trick pony, but does that trick well)
• DJ Chark (I like it if he's cheap)
• Hardman
• Goodwin

When it comes to snaps and targets, I won't be surprised if they balance things out more than they did the last couple of years with Diggs and Davis getting huge snap and target shares.

	Snaps	Targets
Davis	966​	81​
Diggs	949​	160​
Shakir	604​	45​
Sherfield	392​	22​
Harty	155​	21​
Isabella	2​	0​
	3068​	329​

If there is an uptick in TE & RB targets, you could see the WRs get sub-300 targets this year.

It would probably be Samuel in the 80-100 range, Coleman in the 70-90 range, Shakir in the 60-80 range, Hollins in the 30-50 range, and [WR X] in that 20-40 range.

 

[Jim Bob]

(also @Husko)

He wasn't being coy - he flat out said not to expect any big signings but to expect some minor ones. He has a strong track record of living up to his word.

The fact that guys like Deebo are even having to be mentioned is embarrassing IMO. It shows such a lack of understanding of their cap situation, a lack of respect even.

He could restructure some contracts - but i think it's pretty obvious that he won't. This is the 'reset' year where he's taking his medicine. He's not cutting extremely productive/important players like Mitch Morse otherwise.

I would generally agree with @Husko's calculations above. Let's assume they wind up with ~$8m in cap space after rookie contracts, final roster moves, etc. You still need to allow in season wiggle room, still need to consider any possible mid season trades if a big time player goes down (eg White/Douglas), you can't leave yourself with zero.

So it's possible they could sign a $2-3m DE & a $2-3m WR. Or one single player at either of those positions making $5-6m - not two.

Here's where i think we really disagree though. You're likely not getting the calibre of player being discussed for such low salaries. EG Ngakoue was being paid $10.5m last year, MVS $10m, Boyd $10.75m, OBJ $15m, Gallup $11.5m.

There are 28 other teams in the league currently with more cap space. Even after the $10m from White there will be 18 teams with more space - not accounting for any other post 1st June cuts (i don't have a full list).

I think guys in the next tier such as DJ Chark are more realistic targets to discuss.

The other barrier to making a trade for a big cap hit guy is that they have to fit the cap hit of a guy they trade for BEFORE they can restructure him.

Deebo's 2024 cap hit is $28.6M. Aiyuk's 2024 cap hit is $14.1M (hard number due to 5th year option). Higgins's 2024 cap hit is $21.8M (hard number due to franchise tag). Sutton's 2024 cap hit is $17.4M.

That is why Beane dismissed the idea that they could afford to trade for a big money WR1. They cannot restructure everyone on the roster and fit the cap hits under the cap.

Despite previous reports, the salary cap is real. And this is part of the mini-reset and dealing with $50M+ in dead cap space in 2024.

Their 2025 cap situation is a lot better and they have a lot of draft pick capital. I think Beane is shocking everyone by taking the patient route to this offseason. It won't shock me if he gets back to being more aggressive next offseason where you could see a big move up on draft day. Or, they trade up from the Minnesota 2nd and end up with 2 1st round picks and 1 2nd.

I don't expect the big sexy trade for a dreamy WR1 that will make $30M+ per year, though. I cannot see Beane wanting to spend $80M+ per year on QB1 & WR1.