Rumor: All Purpose Trade Proposals, Speculation and Rumours - 2023/24

[Adam da bomb]

Connor-Scheifele is not getting broken up without a Connor trade.

Ehlers for Necas would be a team-killer for us. If we're paying Necas something close to 6-7 AAV to be a second line LW, we'll simply be better off giving that and then some to Ehlers, who is twice the player Necas is.

On the other hand, if there is one organisation that excels in robbing incompetent GMs blind, it's the Canes. We're so going to do this.

Would be good to get the younger winger in a ehlers necas trade and extend the window.

 

[Maukkis]

Would be good to get the younger winger in a ehlers necas trade and extend the window.

Trading Ehlers closes our window. This team needs him so much more than people understand.

 

[tbcwpg]

Trading Ehlers closes our window. This team needs him so much more than people understand.

There isn't one player on this team that I think losing would completely tank the team except for Hellebuyck. Ehlers gets in the zone well, he's underrated at many things, but he's also a giveaway machine - he has the most giveaways amongst Jets forwards this season by almost 25% from the next closest and once he actually gets into the zone he seems to not be quite sure what to do with it.

Saying the window shuts if Ehlers is traded (if the window is even open) is incredibly overstating his importance.

 

[Maukkis]

There isn't one player on this team that I think losing would completely tank the team except for Hellebuyck. Ehlers gets in the zone well, he's underrated at many things, but he's also a giveaway machine - he has the most giveaways amongst Jets forwards this season by almost 25% from the next closest and once he actually gets into the zone he seems to not be quite sure what to do with it.

Saying the window shuts if Ehlers is traded (if the window is even open) is incredibly overstating his importance.

Of course you're going to have the most giveaways when you're the primary puck mover on any line. I don't have a single giveaway in the NHL, but that's because I'm never tasked with carrying the puck. And for someone who doesn't know what to do with the puck in the offensive zone, he sure has some pretty wild on-ice goal and possession metrics - among the best in the league. If his uncertainty causes his line to have over 60% of all the goals scored when on the ice at 5v5, I think we'd better take it.

I don't think the window has been open since 2019, but it needs to be understood that without Ehlers, we don't have a single good scoring line that we know of in the organisation. And since we don't test new combinations out enough (which is an issue with or without 27), that's not a risk we should take.

 

[Buffdog]

There isn't one player on this team that I think losing would completely tank the team except for Hellebuyck. Ehlers gets in the zone well, he's underrated at many things, but he's also a giveaway machine - he has the most giveaways amongst Jets forwards this season by almost 25% from the next closest and once he actually gets into the zone he seems to not be quite sure what to do with it.

Saying the window shuts if Ehlers is traded (if the window is even open) is incredibly overstating his importance.

Ehlers played 1073:34 at 5v5 last season

He was on the ice for 62 goals for at evens vs 33 goals against

So his ES on ice goal differential was +29

In ABSOLUTE terms, that means he was on the ice for one more goal scored by his team (at evens) than against every 37 minutes of his icetime

Based on his 82 games played, he averaged 13 minutes of ES icetime per game

Therefore, he was on the ice for one more even strength goal for his team than against every 3 games

Yes, it would be a negative to lose that. But to pretend to say that we'd be back in "the dark ages" (as one poster put it) or that posters "don't understand" how much it would hurt the team if we lost him is ridiculous.

At this point I'll expect the goalposts to be moved to the hypothetical xGF% and other non-actual stats

 

[Maukkis]

At this point I'll expect the goalposts to be moved to the hypothetical xGF% and other non-actual stat

It would surely be a shame if people referred to stats that have been proven to be useful in predicting what will happen. If you're not happy with that (either), your loss.

Then again, you thought that Lindros actually played for the Nordiques. Consider that for a minute.

 

[Buffdog]

It would surely be a shame if people referred to stats that have been proven to be useful in predicting what will happen. If you're not happy with that (either), your loss.

Then again, you thought that Lindros actually played for the Nordiques. Consider that for a minute.

Which teams led the league in xGF% this past regular season? How well did that predict what would happen to them?

I'll wait to see you move the goalposts again

And of course Lindros never played for the Nordiques. But it shows that you can get better by moving a valuable piece if the return is right. Don't be pedant

 

[tbcwpg]

Of course you're going to have the most giveaways when you're the primary puck mover on any line. I don't have a single giveaway in the NHL, but that's because I'm never tasked with carrying the puck. And for someone who doesn't know what to do with the puck in the offensive zone, he sure has some pretty wild on-ice goal and possession metrics - among the best in the league. If his uncertainty causes his line to have over 60% of all the goals scored when on the ice at 5v5, I think we'd better take it.

I don't think the window has been open since 2019, but it needs to be understood that without Ehlers, we don't have a single good scoring line that we know of in the organisation. And since we don't test new combinations out enough (which is an issue with or without 27), that's not a risk we should take.

Ehlers isn't the only puck mover on the team though. Scheifele is the next guy on the giveaway list but he has 12 fewer giveaways than Ehlers while playing more ice time. I'm not saying Ehlers isn't a net positive to the team but to suggest the team is sunk without him is really pushing it.

 

[CorgisPer60]

Ehlers isn't the only puck mover on the team though. Scheifele is the next guy on the giveaway list but he has 12 fewer giveaways than Ehlers while playing more ice time. I'm not saying Ehlers isn't a net positive to the team but to suggest the team is sunk without him is really pushing it.

Agreed, Ehlers is far and away the best transition player on the Jets, but there is only one Ehlers and 32 teams. The other teams seem to have their own ways to get out of their zone. The team isn't sunk without him, but unless they can fill his void, they will be lesser. I hope Brad Lambert surprises everybody and pops off next season, or Cheveldayoff is able to work some of his magic and get a good value back for Ehlers. I hate how underutilized he has been. You'll trade Ehlers but keep Pionk. f***ing angry just thinking about it.

 

[WolfHouse]

Agreed, Ehlers is far and away the best transition player on the Jets, but there is only one Ehlers and 32 teams. The other teams seem to have their own ways to get out of their zone. The team isn't sunk without him, but unless they can fill his void, they will be lesser. I hope Brad Lambert surprises everybody and pops off next season, or Cheveldayoff is able to work some of his magic and get a good value back for Ehlers. I hate how underutilized he has been. You'll trade Ehlers but keep Pionk. f***ing angry just thinking about it.

This is the frustrating part for me... I see lots of smoke about trading ehlers and not a peep about buying out pionk and freeing up space to sign our D that actually can play

 

[Buffdog]

This is the frustrating part for me... I see lots of smoke about trading ehlers and not a peep about buying out pionk and freeing up space to sign our D that actually can play

If you consider Perfetti a left shot winger, then we have him and Connor on the same depth chart as Ehlers

The sad reality is that as of this moment, Pionk is our only RH defenseman under contract for next season (shudder).

 

[larmex99]

I would do Kaako+Schneider for Ehlers+Apples+Stanley, but would the Rangers.

Only if they went to the Helen Keller school of hockey trading.

 

[WolfHouse]

If you consider Perfetti a left shot winger, then we have him and Connor on the same depth chart as Ehlers

The sad reality is that as of this moment, Pionk is our only RH defenseman under contract for next season (shudder).

Seems like perfetti is penciled in for right side then again so was ehlers... I'm a big lambert fan and think he seizes 2C if he's given the chance but we don't have a top six if ehlers is traded tor a rhd

I'd much rather give samberg and heinola time on the right side - unfair to judge samberg while he's thrust over to his offside just to help Stan stay in the lineup...

Really think an ehlers-buchnevich deal with sweeteners is the best for both teams... ehlers would really work with Thomas and kyrou - buchnevich fits the scheif window and is an upgrade on vilardi

 

[Maukkis]

Ehlers isn't the only puck mover on the team though. Scheifele is the next guy on the giveaway list but he has 12 fewer giveaways than Ehlers while playing more ice time. I'm not saying Ehlers isn't a net positive to the team but to suggest the team is sunk without him is really pushing it.

I wonder what that tells you about our possession with Scheifele (and Connor) on the ice. Nik's linemates seem to rank quite low on the list, whereas Connor is almost tied with Scheifele - it's almost like Nik does a larger proportion of puck moving on his line than anyone else on the team on theirs. Hence, more giveaways.

And just to avoid getting caught up in giveaways too much, Nik is among the 21 skaters with 1000+ minutes at 5v5 in the last three years to have a GF% of 60 or higher. 60+ is total domination on the ice, and he's there with an assortment of Bruins, Stars, Panthers, a couple of key Avs, and some extras. So, maybe we forget the idea of dumping Ehlers due to giveaways and focus on trading the guys who play 20 a night and get nothing done.

Funnily enough - that list of 21 skaters features another Jet. Who has been dominant enough to be featured, when the team has sucked for two of the three years? Connor f*** no, he ranks somewhere in the 350s and is under 50% - net negative. Scheifele? A bit better, but nowhere near either. Wheeler isn't it, although he's over 50% and therefore isn't getting outscored like Connor. Samberg and Morrissey look fantastic at mid-50s, but aren't quite there either. As far as veterans go, Niederreiter is at 58.9%, which isn't quite it despite being an absolutely stunning figure of what has actually happened on the ice (ranks 28th in the NHL).

It's Cole Perfetti.

This organisation doesn't deserve either Ehlers or Perfetti. But if it wants to be good, it'd better find a way to have those guys on the ice much more than before.

 

[JetsFan815]

Ehlers isn't the only puck mover on the team though. Scheifele is the next guy on the giveaway list but he has 12 fewer giveaways than Ehlers while playing more ice time. I'm not saying Ehlers isn't a net positive to the team but to suggest the team is sunk without him is really pushing it.

Giveaways are a terrible stat made worse by the fact that it is tracked terribly. A winger who receives a pass along the board who has the chance to move it forward but can't because he can't handle the pressure from a pinching d-man is not considered a giveaway, that play happens tons of time every game and is more impactful in how the team performs than the pitiful number of "giveaways" tracked by the official NHL giveaway stat.

 

[Channelcat]

This is the frustrating part for me... I see lots of smoke about trading ehlers and not a peep about buying out pionk and freeing up space to sign our D that actually can play

Because that makes no sense.

Giveaways are a terrible stat made worse by the fact that it is tracked terribly. A winger who receives a pass along the board who has the chance to move it forward but can't because he can't handle the pressure from a pinching d-man is not considered a giveaway, that play happens tons of time every game and is more impactful in how the team performs than the pitiful number of "giveaways" tracked by the official NHL giveaway stat.

The only good stats are the ones that support my narrative.

 

[raideralex99]

This is the frustrating part for me... I see lots of smoke about trading ehlers and not a peep about buying out pionk and freeing up space to sign our D that actually can play

You know Chevy... he never does what people are saying.
Remember last summer Hellebuyck and Schiefele are gone and PLD will be gone for nothing.
I think they keep Ehlers if he wants to stay and Chevy moves Pionk or Schmidt to bring in a top RHD or everything remains the same and the Jets get their annual 1st round exit in April.

 

[DRW204]

Agreed, Ehlers is far and away the best transition player on the Jets, but there is only one Ehlers and 32 teams. The other teams seem to have their own ways to get out of their zone. The team isn't sunk without him, but unless they can fill his void, they will be lesser. I hope Brad Lambert surprises everybody and pops off next season, or Cheveldayoff is able to work some of his magic and get a good value back for Ehlers. I hate how underutilized he has been. You'll trade Ehlers but keep Pionk. f***ing angry just thinking about it.

fully agree w/ ur last sentence

pionk & ehlers are both UFA-1s.... ehlers has been v good in the reg. season/poor in the POs, pionk was bad in both. but all the trade talk etc is ehlers, not pionk.

 

[tbcwpg]

Giveaways are a terrible stat made worse by the fact that it is tracked terribly. A winger who receives a pass along the board who has the chance to move it forward but can't because he can't handle the pressure from a pinching d-man is not considered a giveaway, that play happens tons of time every game and is more impactful in how the team performs than the pitiful number of "giveaways" tracked by the official NHL giveaway stat.

So that not being tracked as a giveaway just means that Ehlers entering the zone, circling around and making a pass to nowhere is happening more than it looks.

I still haven't seen any evidence that trading Ehlers means that any contention window is slammed shut.

 

[Thechozen1]

fully agree w/ ur last sentence

pionk & ehlers are both UFA-1s.... ehlers has been v good in the reg. season/poor in the POs, pionk was bad in both. but all the trade talk etc is ehlers, not pionk.

Would hate to see Ehlers traded, but the difference there is extracting value of said player traded. Pionk has no value except for cap space and even then there’s no guarantee the Jets can get what they’re shopping for in the UFA market with that cap space as Winnipeg often gets shutout when trying to attract top free agents.

 

[DRW204]

Would hate to see Ehlers traded, but the difference there is extracting value of said player traded. Pionk has no value except for cap space and even then there’s no guarantee the Jets can get what they’re shopping for in the UFA market with that cap space as Winnipeg often gets shutout when trying to attract top free agents.

idk, lots of underwhelming D get a positive trade return given either name-value or role they play in (top-4, 20+ mins a night).
a recent UFA-1 example for a universally regarded poor dmen would be ristolainen... rhd coming off a season w/ 18 pts at 22 min night got a 1st+ for instance from Philly. not sure if i expect a 1st however idk if there's zero trade-value there.

 

[Thechozen1]

idk, lots of underwhelming D get a positive trade return given either name-value or role they play in (top-4, 20+ mins a night).
a recent UFA-1 example for a universally regarded poor dmen would be ristolainen... rhd coming off a season w/ 18 pts at 22 min night got a 1st+ for instance from Philly. not sure if i expect a 1st however idk if there's zero trade-value there.

That’s some positive thinking, I just don’t think Winnipeg gets much in return value for Pionk. Would love to be proved wrong though.

 

[Orrrules]

This was a good read on 55 and 27

How Scheifele, Ehlers and Bowness impact Jets' trade deadline outlook

The Jets' optimal lineup is with Ehlers next to Scheifele but that has rarely been the default for the team.

www.nytimes.com

 

[10Ducky10]

Trading Ehlers closes our window. This team needs him so much more than people understand.

Especially in the playoffs...

 

[bumblebeeman]

idk, lots of underwhelming D get a positive trade return given either name-value or role they play in (top-4, 20+ mins a night).
a recent UFA-1 example for a universally regarded poor dmen would be ristolainen... rhd coming off a season w/ 18 pts at 22 min night got a 1st+ for instance from Philly. not sure if i expect a 1st however idk if there's zero trade-value there.

Pionk definitely has more value than Schmidt as wel I thinkl. I think if the jets retained too there would be some takers. Dude is only 28 and has 5 consecutive 30 pt + seasons