Another Late Season Surge

[Sens of Anarchy]

The last couple games the team is down Tarasenko (TDL), Norris ( 2 weeks before the TDL) and Chabot ( last 2 games)

Inserted Crookshank/Ostapchuk, Katchouk and Kleven (nothing against anyone here but one would think there would be a drop off); Moved Greig in to the middle to replace Norris

and we start winning and keep winning (only 2 games without Chabot but Kleven has been solid)

Should have axed Kubalik lol; But I have a hard time not thinking that would be a +

Moving Chychrun at the TDL probably does it but the return wasn't there (or they want to keep him for now)

 

[BoardsofCanada]

I think the winning streak is great for the room. It's probably meaningless for next season but it lets them go on summer vacation feeling good about themselves.

And besides, don't blame them for winning... blame the stupid Winnipeg Jets for not being able to get more than 2 past one of the worst goalies in the league this season.

That said, I am predicting 1 win in their last 6 games.

In Minny loss
Home to the Panthers loss
Home to the Devils win
In D.C. loss
In Miami loss
In Tampa loss

This would be a pretty ugly way to close out the season but I could see it happening.

 

[bicboi64]

Hope they lose as many games as possible for a good draft pick. Players won't intentionally tank, just gotta play the plugs a bit more so they get more ice time.

 

[jbeck5]

I think the problem you'll find with your theory is sample size.

Average shots against is 30. The 16th team in SA/60 happens to be us at 29.59.

28/30= .933
27/30=.9
26/30=.866

Average over a season might well be .901 but with a game sample average of 30, 2 goals against is great goaltending and 4 is awful.

What you're seeing is a string of games with only 2 goals against or 3 against in a game with a high count.

Winning a game with bad goaltending is a 5-4 or 6-4 type win, where the other team also got bad goaltending


Part of the reason for that is it just doesn't happen often. See my post above

Sure, but you can see my objection with saying the team has been winning with average goaltending...because they haven't. I understand that average goaltending won't happen all the time. Some games we'll have good goaltending and other times bad goaltending.

But my objection that we win with average goaltending still stands...we actually only win the games where we get good goaltending. Then we get bad goaltending and lose. So you can average it out to average goaltending, but we still seem to lose most games where we get average or poor goaltending, and still require good to great goaltending in most of our wins.


When I hear "we win despite only having average goaltending" I'm picturing a team that wins games while posting average goaltending stats during those wins implying that we win games due to having strong skaters despite only have average goaltending...but that isn't the case. The games where we get average goaltending we lose just as much if not more...which isn't encouraging me to believe we have strong skaters that are just a goalie a way.

The whole team needs improvements.

 

[Xspyrit]

Makar to Colorado turned Colorado into a Cup winner and. He was drafted 6 years after McKinnon. They didn’t make the playoffs until Makar arrived

I understand what you're saying but that was not my point.

We should have gotten more high end players if Dorion didn't screw up so many times. We could have had an embarrassment of riches

Never a bad time to add high end talent. Maker went 4th (Ottawas draft pick when the winning steak started) now they are 7th (Elias Andersen went 7 overall)

Drafting high matters to get Cups

Add a 4th OA pick in 2019, a 10th OA pick in 2021, a 7th OA pick in 2022 and a 12th OA pick in 2023

Just imagine, even with all the million other blunders Dorion made

 

[jbeck5]

The difference this season is that they are learning to play the right way during this surge. They look more defensively sound. They look like they are fighting for puck possession. They are doing a lot of things I never saw under the DJ regime.

Yeah, but knowing our luck, we'll have a whole new coaching staff and the players will look confused, and we'll lose a bunch of games, and before we know it it will be November or December and we'll be 5 games under 500 with a 4% chance to make the playoffs and it will be the same thing all over again.

I don't know how anyone could have been paying attention to this team the last 7-15 years and be confident about anything with this team.

 

[jbeck5]

The problem is that there are still paying customers going to games who aren’t paying hundreds of dollars to watch a team purposely suck, nor are they secretly wishing the team loses.

The team and ownership obviously has a responsibility there.

Of course it’s easy to stop watching and wish for losses, but that’s only a portion of the story for the team and fans.

Folks are obviously free to complain about what they want, but it makes no difference in how things play out. This roster isn’t built to tank, and so it won’t.

My issue isn't even with the team winning. Yes, I would rather they lose, but like everyone is saying, players will try to win, and we don't have a tanking roster, so we'll win some games.

I get that.

My issue is with the fans that think winning at the end of a season with the pressure down is going to be some kind of indicator for next year. It's not. We know this.

I remember finishing the season with a killer forcheck that was always pressuring the puck only to be slow and lazy the next year out the gate...

So having success with whatever style you may think( sounder defensive play, let's say) means absolutely nothing for next year.

It doesn't mean that they will come in playing sound defensively next year JUST like when they finished with a hard forcheck didn't mean they would have a hard forcheck the next year...

Like, take our PP. Having a good powerplay last year doesn't mean we have a good powerplay this year. Even with a hall of fame type head coach and assistant coach, we still have a bad powerplay.


So in frustrated with fans that think that because we have success and play sounder defensively this year, that it means we'll win games and have a sound defensive team next year.

What we do this year with the pressure off, and even the style of play we are playing to end this year, has absolutely nothing to do with how we'll play next year with the pressure of making the playoffs.

Absolutely nothing.

Why do fans never learn? I understand the 10 year olds who haven't been around for long. But what's the 20+ year olds excuses, here? Just always wearing rose coloured glasses or what?

 

[jbeck5]

I understand what you're saying but that was not my point.

We should have gotten more high end players if Dorion didn't screw up so many times. We could have had an embarrassment of riches



Add a 4th OA pick in 2019, a 10th OA pick in 2021, a 7th OA pick in 2022 and a 12th OA pick in 2023

Just imagine, even with all the million other blunders Dorion made

This is a concern of mine.

Do we have enough asset value within this organization to build a winner or are we going to max out as a second round team?

Maybe the next thing is to do a massive rebuild like we did where we collect so much value that everyone is hyping our pool(like we did) but then NOT do all these stupid moves like dorion did.

What if we were able to stock up on young assets like we had a few years ago, but then pay for a high end GM who can actually make use of those assets and put together a cup contender?

Like, are we wasting everyone's time even trying with a middling core since we've wasted away so many assets?

I don't think I've ever heard of a cup winner wasting as many assets as we have the few years before they won..

Is it hopeless or does anyone think we actually have the capital to build an actual Stanley Cup winner?


The last thing I would want is to waste like 5 years trying to build a team only to realize we never had enough to actually peak as a contender...and then decide to rebuild...just wasting half a decade of everyone and the fans time when I could have said "told you so" right now, with zero hindsight.

 

[PlayOn]

This is a concern of mine.

Do we have enough asset value within this organization to build a winner or are we going to max out as a second round team?

Maybe the next thing is to do a massive rebuild like we did where we collect so much value that everyone is hyping our pool(like we did) but then NOT do all these stupid moves like dorion did.

What if we were able to stock up on young assets like we had a few years ago, but then pay for a high end GM who can actually make use of those assets and put together a cup contender?

Like, are we wasting everyone's time even trying with a middling core since we've wasted away so many assets?

I don't think I've ever heard of a cup winner wasting as many assets as we have the few years before they won..

Is it hopeless or does anyone think we actually have the capital to build an actual Stanley Cup winner?


The last thing I would want is to waste like 5 years trying to build a team only to realize we never had enough to actually peak as a contender...and then decide to rebuild...just wasting half a decade of everyone and the fans time when I could have said "told you so" right now, with zero hindsight.

Good GMs don’t need a plethora of assets to find talent because they don’t insist on going big name hunting every time.

Look at Florida’s roster. They acquired Montour for a 3rd, picked up Forsling on waivers, got Bennett for a second and a prospect, signed Verhaege before he broke out etc.

When you go into a rebuild, you hope to acquire players like Sanderson, Stützle, Tkachuk etc. You rebuild a rebuild when players start requesting trades or you haven’t managed to fill major holes like #1C/#1D etc. We aren’t in either situation, this is pretty fixable with a smart GM. Time will tell if we have one.

 

[bicboi64]

Good GMs don’t need a plethora of assets to find talent because they don’t insist on going big name hunting every time.

Look at Florida’s roster. They acquired Montour for a 3rd, picked up Forsling on waivers, got Bennett for a second and a prospect, signed Verhaege before he broke out etc.

Still pissed that the Sabres gave away Montour to a division rival for that cheap.

 

[bert]

The time to collect high draft picks was 2019, 2021, 2022 and even still 2023. It's too late now, need to become more competitive YESTERDAY, it's more important than tanking

It's never too late to draft well.

 

[Byron Bitz]

Yes.

We are already basically eliminated may as well earn ourselves a top draft pick.

I’m tired of this team pulling it together the last ten games of the season when they have been ass the first 70 games

What is more valuable, a slightly better draft pick or core players like Tkachuk, Stutzle, Sandy ect actually being capable of winning some games? I choose the latter, if it was early in the rebuild and the roster was filled with a bunch of stop gaps then yeah I’d be a little upset about this win streak.

 

[BondraTime]

What is more valuable, a slightly better draft pick or core players like Tkachuk, Stutzle, Sandy ect actually being capable of winning some games? I choose the latter, if it was early in the rebuild and the roster was filled with a bunch of stop gaps then yeah I’d be a little upset about this win streak.

Draft pick is undoubtedly more valuable than winning meaningless games down the stretch, as we have seen the past 5 years

They aren't going to learn how to win by winning at the end of a lost season. They've done that 3-4 times already, to no avail

 

[DrEasy]

Hope they lose as many games as possible for a good draft pick. Players won't intentionally tank, just gotta play the plugs a bit more so they get more ice time.

We don't have any plugs to play. The Belleville roster itself is depleted by injuries. No Chartier, Highmore, MacEwen, Jarventie.

 

[JD1]

Sure, but you can see my objection with saying the team has been winning with average goaltending...because they haven't. I understand that average goaltending won't happen all the time. Some games we'll have good goaltending and other times bad goaltending.

But my objection that we win with average goaltending still stands...we actually only win the games where we get good goaltending. Then we get bad goaltending and lose. So you can average it out to average goaltending, but we still seem to lose most games where we get average or poor goaltending, and still require good to great goaltending in most of our wins.


When I hear "we win despite only having average goaltending" I'm picturing a team that wins games while posting average goaltending stats during those wins implying that we win games due to having strong skaters despite only have average goaltending...but that isn't the case. The games where we get average goaltending we lose just as much if not more...which isn't encouraging me to believe we have strong skaters that are just a goalie a way.

The whole team needs improvements.

So how often do we get average goaltending? How often does any team?

30 shots * 82 games is 2460 shots. You can calculate averages in there.

But when you talk about a game. A game is 30 shots. Average goaltending is 27 saves. Good goaltending gives you 28 saves more frequently than 26.

Just look at 6 games.

3 with 28 saves.
1 with 27 saves.
2 with 26 saves.

That's.906 goaltending. It's hard to say you win with "average" goaltending when in 5 of 6 games you get way better or way worse than average

 

[Flamingo]

Highest season point total we can get is 88. We need to win out, and have the teams in front of us all go on slight skids.

Flyers: 82 pts, 7 GR -- worse than 3-4-0
Red Wings: 80 pts, 8 GR -- worse than 4-4-0
Islanders: 77 pts, 9 GR - worse than 5-3-1
Devils: 76 pts, 8 GR - worse than 6-2-0
Penguins: 75 pts,, 9 GR - worse than 6-2-1
Sabres: 75 pts, 7 GR - worse than 6-0-1

 

[Burrowsaurus]

fans just want either playoffs or high draft pick. And some fans even prefer high draft pick to losing in the first round. It’s just not realistic.

 

[JD1]

I think sometimes we can't see the forest thru the trees

It takes a shit ton of luck to win a Stanley Cup. And luck runs in multiples.

You get lucky to suck at the right moment and draft a world class player. Or you get a world class player out of an unexpected draft slot. And you don't just need this to happen once, you need it to happen multiple times. As in multiple world class players.

And if you have that, you have a chance and need to surround it with talent.

Multiple cup winners since the 05 lockout

Pittsburgh
Chicago
LA
Tampa


And then look at the one offs and what I noted.

Do we have world class players? We might in Tkachuk, Sanderson and Stuetzle. We have a chance.. there's probably 25 teams that don't. We're just not there yet maturity wise.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Highest season point total we can get is 88. We need to win out, and have the teams in front of us all go on slight skids.

Flyers: 82 pts, 7 GR -- worse than 3-4-0
Red Wings: 80 pts, 8 GR -- worse than 4-4-0
Islanders: 77 pts, 9 GR - worse than 5-3-1
Devils: 76 pts, 8 GR - worse than 6-2-0
Penguins: 75 pts,, 9 GR - worse than 6-2-1
Sabres: 75 pts, 7 GR - worse than 6-0-1

Don’t think we’re much worse than any of these teams.

But I bet if we win out and one of these teams lose out people will be mad we passed them and probably compliment the other team for being shit. And also say that the other team is better than us because they were ahead of us “when games mattered”

 

[BondraTime]

fans just want either playoffs or high draft pick. And some fans even prefer high draft pick to losing in the first round. It’s just not realistic.

Is that with or without context of the point of the season?

I know I'd change what I'd like or want at different points of the seasons as a fan, especially when they aren't remotely possible

 

[Alf Silfversson]

It's never too late to draft well.

I hope they draft well. I'm going to break that down.

1. They need to draft. Period. Not trade another lottery pick.

2. They need to not go ape shit and pick Tyler Boucher.

Losing 1 or 2 slots is not good but it's likely a minor thing. We were never going to out tank the Ducks, BJs, Sharks or Hawks. And likely not the Habs. So we were always slotted 6th or lower. That'll probably end up being 8th or 9th. I think we'll get a similar player there that we would have at 6th. Maybe even the same player with how fluid picks 2-11 seem to be this year.

Just hope Staios gets the right guy.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Is that with or without context of the point of the season?

I know I'd change what I'd like or want at different points of the seasons as a fan, especially when they aren't remotely possible

Many things have led to us not being in the running for bottom 4.

When did games become meaningless? I mean realistically games became meaningless end of December. It was unrealistic to think we would finish dead last or even bottom 4 after December. We aren’t as bad as those other teams, we’re just not.


I understand lamenting that we’ve had a disappointing season and we won’t be picking top 2 as a reward, but I mean that was not our place. Even with how bad we’ve been.

 

[Byron Bitz]

Draft pick is undoubtedly more valuable than winning meaningless games down the stretch, as we have seen the past 5 years

They aren't going to learn how to win by winning at the end of a lost season. They've done that 3-4 times already, to no avail

So you don’t want Tkachuk, Stutzle, Batherson, Sandy, ect to be good players? Because if those guys are any good they are probably gonna win some games.

 

[BondraTime]

Many things have led to us not being in the running for bottom 4.

When did games become meaningless? I mean realistically games became meaningless end of December. It was unrealistic to think we would finish dead last or even bottom 4 after December. We aren’t as bad as those other teams, we’re just not.

Things have been meaningless, in regards to the playoffs, since November.

I pegged them finishing bottom 3 in the conference, so this isn't a surprising season to me personally. I'd have loved playoff chasing, but that was very unlikely, and I think will be just as unlikely next year barring very big changes.

The higher you pick, the better off you are, that's pretty simple. The lower the Sens finish, the happier I will be. Sens were 5th before this run, the fact they are now in 7th isn't good for the teams future, regardless of the happiness that we are winning.

This is a bad team, and it's going to take major work in the offseason to change that

So you don’t want Tkachuk, Stutzle, Batherson, Sandy, ect to be good players? Because if those guys are any good they are probably gonna win some games.

I'd definitely have loved for the team to play good and win games, that never happened this year. Now that the season is over, I don't want them to win. The better they finish, the worse it is for the outlook of the draft, and the team. Could care less if they come 28th or 25th in the league. Exact same thing.

We went through this exact, EXACT same scenario in 2021. Exact same stuff was argued, would we rather win or get the better draft pick; it doesn't matter we should just win out and the guys will learn to win and carry that to next year. That kind of thinking.

That never happened, instead we missed out on Dylan Guenther or Brandt Clarke and ended up with Boucher.

The season is over, whatever they do the next 3 weeks will do nothing for their next season. The better draft pick, as a fan who likes watching a good team, id what I want. Not meaningless wins that legitimately don't matter one iota. Perfectly fine for people to want to win, it's a sport everyone likes watching their home team win. I don't care about watching the same old dog and pony show.

This year is no different. This team is not very good, it needs some major pieces

Going 10-5 down the stretch instead of 5-10 isn't going to help our guys at all, but having the chance at our top rated player rather than our 3rd rated player could be the difference between Sanderson or Drysdale or Holtz. Or Tyler Boucher instead of Brandt Clarke or Dylan Guenther. A big, BIG difference.

 

[Crosside]