Around the NHL — Episode XLXVI

[bicboi64]

I think this is far too slanted into excusing the direction they went. It was another move that expedited the need/desire to "rebuild" among others. All this team ever needed under Melnyk/Dorion was more patience and maybe over half a decade didn't need to be tossed out the window. Patience back then and a rebuild isn't even necessary. They sold the need to rebuild by creating it. Patience throughout the rebuild and it wouldn't have failed as badly as it has with PD sending half of what was accumulated out the door for failed experiments, and would have more in the cupboard to try to pivot.

It's like it excuses Dorion for his over aggressiveness that led to long term consequences over and over. Even dating back to the Phaneuf deal Murray credited him with orchestrating. Zbad didn't even end up getting paid much, and it's never been set in stone there was a clear directive from Melnyk to move him out specifically. Surely, if Dorion was a good GM, he would have convinced his owner of the best route forward, over abandoning potentially years of sustainability for a scorched earth rebuild brought on as much by mismanagement as financial issues.

Phaneuf deal + Zbad deal + Duchene deal + bad money to vets = a need to rebuild as much as anything else. The run was fun, but it was a choice imo to toss 6+ seasons at the expense of a small window for a team that still would never be considered a contender.

Valid points, but I wouldn't group the Phaneuf trade with the Zibby or Duchene deals. Phaneuf was overpaid by the Leafs and even at his retention, but we gave up spare parts with the only real value being Michalek and a 2nd (Greening, Lindberg, Cowan were all done by that time) and we got a legit second pairing RD. If anything, we should've gotten the Leafs to retain a little more but we finally had a solid D for once.

 

[Hale The Villain]

The money argument for the Zibanejad/Brassard swap never passed the smell test.

If you wanted to save a couple million there was plenty of other ways to do it besides trading your young raw top 2 center.

It's just BS to excuse the awful pro scouting that led Dorion to believe Brassard was the #1 center they were missing.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Valid points, but I wouldn't group the Phaneuf trade with the Zibby or Duchene deals. Phaneuf was overpaid by the Leafs and even at his retention, but we gave up spare parts with the only real value being Michalek and a 2nd (Greening, Lindberg, Cowan were all done by that time) and we got a legit second pairing RD. If anything, we should've gotten the Leafs to retain a little more but we finally had a solid D for once.

I do because it was all short term money going out the door for a big money long term contract that was quickly going sideways with Phaneuf slowing down. He was effective for a very short window. That contract then led to Methot lost, plus having to get creative with the contract and taking on Gaborik.

It's one, that like the Zbad and Duchene trades had some positive effects, I won't pretend they won't, but imo, the short term gains weren't worth the long term consequences. And it all plays in to their plan. They were burning it down and threw caution to the wind, and so be it, but I still think it matters that it was all sort of telegraphed to that point as necessary by the choices they made more than anything else.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

I think this is far too slanted into excusing the direction they went. It was another move that expedited the need/desire to "rebuild" among others. All this team ever needed under Melnyk/Dorion was more patience and maybe over half a decade didn't need to be tossed out the window. Patience back then and a rebuild isn't even necessary. They sold the need to rebuild by creating it. Patience throughout the rebuild and it wouldn't have failed as badly as it has with PD sending half of what was accumulated out the door for failed experiments, and would have more in the cupboard to try to pivot.

It's like it excuses Dorion for his over aggressiveness that led to long term consequences over and over. Even dating back to the Phaneuf deal Murray credited him with orchestrating. Zbad didn't even end up getting paid much, and it's never been set in stone there was a clear directive from Melnyk to move him out specifically. Surely, if Dorion was a good GM, he would have convinced his owner of the best route forward, over abandoning potentially years of sustainability for a scorched earth rebuild brought on as much by mismanagement as financial issues.

Phaneuf deal + Zbad deal + Duchene deal + bad money to vets = a need to rebuild as much as anything else. The run was fun, but it was a choice imo to toss 6+ seasons at the expense of a small window for a team that still would never be considered a contender.

They were always going to rebuild because they were priced out from keeping the stars they developed. Their window to win was closing, because it centred around Karlsson and Stone's RFA years/cost controlled years remaining.

The Phaneuf deal was part of that. They had too much bad money for a budget team, and no way out of it. It was also blocking them from improving as their window quickly closed with Karlsson's impending UFA status coming a few years away.

Their trades seem a lot more logical once you accept that the team thought their window was based around Karlsson's contract and work backwards from there. I am not saying that they had an explicit conversation or agreement that they would lie and sell everybody off prior to the meeting Dorion described in Barbados where Melnyk order 66'd Karlsson and the core, but Dorion must have had some sort of understanding that nothing was guaranteed when the team was going to shift from a 60M-70M team to an eventual 80M-90M team.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

The money argument for the Zibanejad/Brassard swap never passed the smell test.

If you wanted to save a couple million there was plenty of other ways to do it besides trading your young raw top 2 center.

It's just BS to excuse the awful pro scouting that led Dorion to believe Brassard was the #1 center they were missing.

It isn't so much money related to what Zib and Brassard cost. Although that is one aspect of it that Brassard was cost controlled, and Zibanejad could have ended up costing a lot more in years 2 and 3 of the deal.

It's that they had a window to win that was caused by an unwillingness to spend money. A normal team would look at the roster they had and be more patient because prior to Karl's injury (which they wouldn't have predicted), they would have projected that Karlsson and Stone would be impact players for another decade. So if Zibanejad is going to take another 2-3 years to get there, that's not a big deal.

The thing is that their window was based around Karlsson's contract (because of money), so it was more like they had 3 or so years left to win and wouldn't benefit from Zibanejad putting it together later on anyways. So even if the trade itself didn't save a substantial amount of money (it saved some), it was motivated by money and the effects of the budget in a more macro sense.

That isn't me absolving the pro scouting of Brassard, who really wasn't as consistent or good for Ottawa as he was advertised as being in New York. I'm just pointing out that when you accept that the team had to be working under the notion that their window was based around Karlsson's contract (because of the budget not guaranteeing they could keep everybody), and work backwards from there, trades like Brassard, Phaneuf, and Duchene aren't excusable, but they make a lot more sense.

You can't judge those trades under the scope of what a normal team would do to maximize their position. Normal teams or teams fortunate enough to spend beyond what normal teams do are the ones who took advantage of Ottawa having to make those kind of trades to maximize their position. The Rangers got Zibanejad because of the structure of Brassard's contract. The Leafs got out of Phaneuf for nothing by taking a bunch of short-term money (and later Zaitsev). Colorado got a haul for Duchene because having 2 years left to win and minimal opportunities to add a legit 1C gave Dorion tunnel vision.

 

[Micklebot]

The money argument for the Zibanejad/Brassard swap never passed the smell test.

If you wanted to save a couple million there was plenty of other ways to do it besides trading your young raw top 2 center.

It's just BS to excuse the awful pro scouting that led Dorion to believe Brassard was the #1 center they were missing.

The team motto was why not us, why not now that year, so with that in mind, trading a younger player for a more experienced player that better fit team needs (left handed center for the top 6) could be rationalized,

That said, it never made much sense that we gave up the 2nd rather than the other way around. I also think Duchene more sense as a target at that time, though I suppose he might not have checked the vet box as well.

I wonder how different things would have been had we traded Zibanejad for Duchene instead of Brassard,

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

They were always going to rebuild because they were priced out from keeping the stars they developed. Their window to win was closing, because it centred around Karlsson and Stone's RFA years/cost controlled years remaining.

The Phaneuf deal was part of that. They had too much bad money for a budget team, and no way out of it. It was also blocking them from improving as their window quickly closed with Karlsson's impending UFA status coming a few years away.

Their trades seem a lot more logical once you accept that the team thought their window was based around Karlsson's contract and work backwards from there. I am not saying that they had an explicit conversation or agreement that they would lie and sell everybody off prior to the meeting Dorion described in Barbados where Melnyk order 66'd Karlsson and the core, but Dorion must have had some sort of understanding that nothing was guaranteed when the team was going to shift from a 60M-70M team to an eventual 80M-90M team.

I think that's the decision they made, sure. I don't agree it was all "logical" or like it all makes some perfect sense. There were still poor choices made within the confines of those walls, which imo the Phaneuf/Zbad/Duchene deals all fall under. They chose to go down the path of burning it down and making destructive deals taking away any hope of pivoting. It was easier to give up, push all their chips in, and deal with the destruction later. I still think that was a 2 person job and some of what you put in your post is based on assumptions. I don't think it was actually as necessary as portrayed from a hockey personnel standpoint or above board, or that it excuses the path of destruction Dorion laid, but I don't disagree with that sentiment in general that ultimately Melnyk wanting to fold for half a decade plus was the primary issue, but I still think there was a better, more competitive and/pr advantageous long term path forward. It looks even worse since their rebuild didn't work and needs to now be fixed.

It's all water under the bridge now, but I will never accept that the situation they put themselves in of needing to rebuild wasn't largely self inflicted and imo, it was a combination of Melnyk's issues as much as poor management, like sending a conference rival a #1 center for a decade or more, even if the returned player wasn't a total wash. Dorion's legacy can be the 1 run and a failed rebuild.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

The team motto was why not us, why not now that year, so with that in mind, trading a younger player for a more experienced player that better fit team needs (left handed center for the top 6) could be rationalized,

That said, it never made much sense that we gave up the 2nd rather than the other way around. I also think Duchene more sense as a target at that time, though I suppose he might not have checked the vet box as well.

I wonder how different things would have been had we traded Zibanejad for Duchene instead of Brassard,

We might have won a cup if we traded Zibanejad for Duchene because we would have had Duchene instead of Brassard during the 2017 run, and Chabot didn't factor in. Of course, there is a butterfly effect to consider, and maybe that run never happens.

I think the rumour going around the internet that many years later was confirmed by one of the legit reporters was that Zib+Chabot for Duchene was close at the 2016 draft. I think the story was Sakic turned it down. Of course, grain of salt.

I think the truth is somewhere between fans undervaluing how Brassard was perceived by GMs and overvaluing how Zibanejad (prior to putting it all together) would have been perceived by GMs. Even after Brassard had what seemed like in obvious decline in Ottawa, he went for a fairly large return to Pittsburgh. Zibanejad took a few years to really breakout in New York. There were still issues with coaches calling him out over commitment. It took 3 years in New York for his production to improve (although some of that was league scoring rising), and then in the 4th year (his first year he would have been a UFA) he blew up into Jagr-lite.

He was better at points in New York than Brassard was in Ottawa, but it wasn't a scenario where Ottawa traded him and the very next season he's a 50 goal 100 point center. It took years for him to get there. Point being, it wouldn't surprise me if at the time of his trade his value was a bit tainted around the league and he wasn't seen as a surefire future 1C.

 

[Micklebot]

We might have won a cup if we traded Zibanejad for Duchene because we would have had Duchene instead of Brassard during the 2017 run, and Chabot didn't factor in. Of course, there is a butterfly effect to consider, and maybe that run never happens.

I think the rumour going around the internet that many years later was confirmed by one of the legit reporters was that Zib+Chabot for Duchene was close at the 2016 draft. I think the story was Sakic turned it down. Of course, grain of salt.

I think the truth is somewhere between fans undervaluing how Brassard was perceived by GMs and overvaluing how Zibanejad (prior to putting it all together) would have been perceived by GMs. Even after Brassard had what seemed like in obvious decline in Ottawa, he went for a fairly large return to Pittsburgh. Zibanejad took a few years to really breakout in New York. There were still issues with coaches calling him out over commitment. It took 3 years in New York for his production to improve (although some of that was league scoring rising), and then in the 4th year (his first year he would have been a UFA) he blew up into Jagr-lite.

He was better at points in New York than Brassard was in Ottawa, but it wasn't a scenario where Ottawa traded him and the very next season he's a 50 goal 100 point center. It took years for him to get there. Point being, it wouldn't surprise me if at the time of his trade his value was a bit tainted around the league and he wasn't seen as a surefire future 1C.

Surefire #1, perhaps not, but he was a 23 year old 200+ pd center that could skate with back to back 20 goal ~50 ish pts seasons under his belt as a second liner traded for a 28 year old with a 60 pts career high as a first liner.

Even if Zibanejad didn't develop as well as he did, he looked like he'd at least be giving you about 90% of what Brassards peak was for a much longer time given the 5 year age gap.

Now, if you factor in cashflow considerations, it may make a bit more sense, as some targets might not have been viable

 

[bicboi64]

I think the truth is somewhere between fans undervaluing how Brassard was perceived by GMs and overvaluing how Zibanejad (prior to putting it all together) would have been perceived by GMs. Even after Brassard had what seemed like in obvious decline in Ottawa, he went for a fairly large return to Pittsburgh. Zibanejad took a few years to really breakout in New York. There were still issues with coaches calling him out over commitment. It took 3 years in New York for his production to improve (although some of that was league scoring rising), and then in the 4th year (his first year he would have been a UFA) he blew up into Jagr-lite.

He was better at points in New York than Brassard was in Ottawa, but it wasn't a scenario where Ottawa traded him and the very next season he's a 50 goal 100 point center. It took years for him to get there. Point being, it wouldn't surprise me if at the time of his trade his value was a bit tainted around the league and he wasn't seen as a surefire future 1C.

In his last year with us, Zibanejad scored at a 0.62ppg
In his 1st season with NYR he scored at a 0.66ppg
In his 2nd NYR season he scored at a .65 clip but approached 30g
In his 3rd season he scored at a .9 clip.

Even if Zibby stayed at his .65-.66 self, we'd have had a 65ish point C that still had a ceiling for more. He was improving instantly, but just at a slow pace. The minute he was traded, he was better than Brass and was improving in every aspect of his game.