Well, here's my breakdown for this series. I did this for each series in the Cup run, so I'll do it again.
Green = Significant advantage in this category
Blue = Nearly even in this category
Red = Significant disadvantage in this category
Since
April 1st | | | | Shots
for | Shots
against | | | | | | | | |
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Other significant stats: Colorado has the least time on ice at even strength and has the 2nd most minor penalties against during this time frame. They lead the league with the most interference penalties this season, while St. Louis is tied for the least (32 vs. 11). St. Louis is tied for 1st in the league with the most hooking penalties against, but the gap isn't nearly as big (33 vs. 26 for COL). Colorado has also given up the 2nd most shorthanded goals since April 1st with 16. The Blues have given up 10.
This series is not going to be easy, but I think there is more hope than people might think.
Surprisingly, the Blues and Avs have similar goals for and goals against down the stretch. The difference comes in how these teams score goals and give up goals. The Avs are a big time possession team, and I don't even have to look at actual possession stats to know this. They have a lot of shots for and not a lot of shots against, and not a lot of hits or blocks (because they have the puck a lot). The Blues don't fare so well. I expect the Avs to dominate puck possession at even strength this series. They like to shoot a lot, and their offense goes through their defense a lot. The Blues on the other hand try to find the right shots instead of throwing tons of pucks towards the net. They do not get a ton of high danger chances, but they capitalize on the ones they do get. So basically, they are in this middle ground between throwing everything at the net and waiting for the perfect chance a lot. The Avs kinda just get lots of chances, period. They are a highly offensive team, I think everyone knows this.
But a big difference between these teams is their special teams. The Blues have been stellar on the powerplay, and their PK has been fantastic as well, especially in their last dozen games or so. The Avs PK hasn't been great, but has picked up down the stretch. On the flip side, their PP has dropped off a bit in their last dozen games. Another significant thing that was already noted above, is that the Avs have played the least amount of time at even strength since April 1st. Special teams should be a significant factor in this series for these reasons. The Blues faceoff advantage is also a big factor in terms of special teams.
Another major factor in this series will be period by period scoring. This will be a very interesting dynamic in this series, I think. The Blues have been a bit better in the 1st period, but the difference isn't massive. The big differences come in the 2nd and 3rd periods. The Avs are phenomenal in the 2nd period, whereas that has been the Blues worst period. But what's interesting is that although the Avs have a 14 goal advantage in the 2nd, the Blues have a 14 goal advantage in the 3rd. But honestly I don't know what to make of this. But what I do know is that the Avs are 20-2-1 this season when leading after 1 and 31-1-1 when leading after 2.
Last thing I'll talk about is hitting. The Blues are a more physical team and we all know they ramp this part of their game up even more in the playoffs. The Avs aren't shy to hitting, though. They don't have a ton of hits because they typically have the puck. But one thing to think about is that the Avs top defenders, especially Girard and Makar, aren't very big guys. Getting in on the forecheck and hitting these guys any chance the Blues get will be a factor as the series goes on. Another thing is that the Avs are a very good skating team, and they're fast. I think it would be in the Blues interest to slow the game down and play physical.
Keys to the series for each team:
Blues: Make this series a grinding, physical, suffocating one. Have a strong, relentless forecheck and get the Avs to take penalties. Capitalize on those powerplays. Hit, hit hit. Hit their small, skilled defenders
every chance you get. Don't give their defenseman any room in the O-zone, stick to shot-blocking.
Do not trail after 1. Weather the storm in the 2nd period. An even 2nd period is a win in your book. Shut down their top line and make them rely more heavily on their depth, that's where you have the advantage.
Wild cards: Binnington, Parayko, Schwartz, Thomas, Tarasenko(?)
My guy to watch: Faulk
Avs: Make this series fast with lots of open ice and lots of rushes. Stay out of the penalty box
at all costs. Don't let the high physicality get to you, and be sharp on breakouts. Don't get stuck in your zone for too long, have quick up and outs. Do not sit back with a 1 goal lead going into the 3rd. "End" the game before it gets to the 3rd. Get the most out of your home ice and matchup advantage. Get your top guys away from O'Reilly and Parayko. Your best players need to be your best players.
Wild cards: Grubauer, Burakovsky, Kadri, Nichushkin, Girard
My guy to watch: Saad
Key matchups: MacKinnon vs. O'Reilly, Binnington vs. Grubauer, 3rd line vs. 3rd line
Blues in...
4: Seriously doubt it
5: Doubt it
6: Possible if things go right
7: Most likely winning outcome
Avs in:
4: Doubt it
5: Possible if things go right
6: Most likely winning outcome
7: 50/50 chance if it comes to this
So if the Avs win, I think it's in 6. If the Blues win I think it's in 7,
maybe 6. I like the Blues the longer the series drags on though. Avs will want to finish this in 5 or 6. If I'm an Avs fan, I'm afraid of a game 7.
