Buffalo Bills Buffalo Bills 2021 offseason part 2: Draft Thurs 4/29 8pm Eastern

[Rowley Birkin]

what it whispered to me is I have no idea what they will do haha. But I agree, my guess is they want one day-one playmaker drafted today or tomorrow, but the rest of the picks are players that need a 1-2 years to be NFL ready, and will be replacing our older position groups. To me that is OL, DL, and DBs in general. If they go that route in the first round (and get their playmaker tomorrow), my guess is Edge or Interior OL, maybe a DB

They don't have roster space to 'stash' guys until next year. So we go back to the idea of acquiring extra 2022 picks....

 

[Husko]

I didn't do a Bills mock this year, just too many moving parts. But here's the guys I have my eye on that would intrigue me in the first couple rounds:

• JOK: This goes without saying, you all know I love him. He's my favorite player in the draft and I think he will be elite. Being able to run a base defense with him on the slot would change the very nature of our defense in a good way.
• Newsome: I think he's literally the perfect fit at CB for the Bills. He plays zone, is a fine tackler, and only allowed one reception over 10 yards last year. He's literally exactly what the Bills look for in a corner
• Farley: He's not the great scheme fit Newsome is. And his back is currently broken. But if you have a chance to get the most talented defensive player in the draft at 30, you take it, well worth the dice roll
• Ojulari: If one of the top DEs falls to us I hope it's him. He has good traits, actually produced in college against top competition, and is significantly younger than the rest of the DE class, meaning there's room to grow. I like him a lot more than Paye.
• Oweh: I don't love it. And the lack of production terrifies me. But if the board falls a certain way I'm resigned to it
• Dickerson: One of my favorite players in the draft. Slot him in at LG this year and long term replacement at center. Think of him as our next Eric Wood
• Stokes: He's a little older and his play in college was more "fine" than elite, but he has elite size, length, and speed, is a willing tackler, and plays zone. Basically he's everything the Bills want in a CB. I'm thinking more second round but don't be surprised if the Bills grab him at 30.
• Molden: A bit undersized in terms of length, but he's a very strong tackling CB that plays zone. Some feel he may have to switch to S, but I don't think he would have to in the Bills zone heavy scheme. Maybe he's an ideal nickel short term and developmental boundary?
• Melifonwu: Very raw, but great traits and punishing physicality. Would be a very fun fit in Buffalo.
• Cisco: More of a third round option, but he could be a great nickel corner development option. He played "rover" in Syracuse, which sounds to me a lot like "big nickel"

 

[Husko]

A few other random thoughts:

• I still think the Bills have been so aggressive in re-signing depth players (Ike, most recently) because (1) they don't like the day 3 options they're going to have (remember the draft class is literally half the size of last year's) and (2) they are positioning themselves to be aggressive and trade up. I wouldn't be surprised if they traded up with multiple picks! Don't be shocked if they only make like 4 picks when all is said and done. Day 3 picks are going to struggle to make the roster!
• Regarding CB at 30, I still think it's possible, but something Fairbairn said on his podcast recently stuck with me. You use first round picks on positions you think are important. The Bills have, since McDermott got here, telegraphed to us that they don't think CB2 is important. Just look at how they've addressed it. Now maybe there's a corner they love there that they just can't pass up. But all else being equal, I don't think that's a position they will feel they need to go get at 30.
• Players that really scare me at 30: Joe Tyron and Asante Samuel Jr. Tryon just doesn't excite me at all and strikes me as such a "safe" and boring pick. I know he's different from Epenesa, but it reminds me of that. Samuel I think is a horrible scheme fit and I don't understand all the local media buzz around him. Watch his tape, he's literally allergic to contact and physicality, the opposite of what the Bills value in a DBs.

 

[Dirty Dog]

I’m a big believer in upgrade our offense as much as possible, and let our defense be stagnant for a year. Safeties and edge rushers old, and we need more talent at LB, CB, And DT. But offense is our bread and butter. So I’m team Etienne and offensive linemen (throw in that penn state TE if possible). Bring in a playmaker or two and youth on the OL this year, and start the youth movement on D next year

 

[Rowley Birkin]

A few other random thoughts:

• I still think the Bills have been so aggressive in re-signing depth players (Ike, most recently) because (1) they don't like the day 3 options they're going to have (remember the draft class is literally half the size of last year's) and (2) they are positioning themselves to be aggressive and trade up. I wouldn't be surprised if they traded up with multiple picks! Don't be shocked if they only make like 4 picks when all is said and done. Day 3 picks are going to struggle to make the roster!
• Regarding CB at 30, I still think it's possible, but something Fairbairn said on his podcast recently stuck with me. You use first round picks on positions you think are important. The Bills have, since McDermott got here, telegraphed to us that they don't think CB2 is important. Just look at how they've addressed it. Now maybe there's a corner they love there that they just can't pass up. But all else being equal, I don't think that's a position they will feel they need to go get at 30.
• Players that really scare me at 30: Joe Tyron and Asante Samuel Jr. Tryon just doesn't excite me at all and strikes me as such a "safe" and boring pick. I know he's different from Epenesa, but it reminds me of that. Samuel I think is a horrible scheme fit and I don't understand all the local media buzz around him. Watch his tape, he's literally allergic to contact and physicality, the opposite of what the Bills value in a DBs.

Do you have any late round guys?

 

[Der Jaeger]

Here's the draft rules I've accumulated after interning for a club and seeing how about 25 years of drafts panned out after interning:

1. Always trust your board. You put the work into it. If you don't trust your board, then you're wasting months of work.
2. Pick BPA available. Especially now, the NFL turns over players fast. Just take the highest rated player on your board.
3. Exception to rule #2. If you don't have a QB, you need to go get one, even if you slightly overdraft him.
4. If you've got similarly rated players available, take the lineman. There are 9 of them on the field every play.
5. Quarterbacks, offensive tackles, defensive ends/passrushers, and cornerbacks have more influence on play outcomes than any other position.

 

[Dirty Dog]

I’m excited to see how the first two days lines up with the big board you all have been working on

 

[Husko]

I’m excited to see how the first two days lines up with the big board you all have been working on

Speaking of which, vote here!

2021 HF Bills Big Board 44+

 

[TalkingProuder]

I didn't do a Bills mock this year, just too many moving parts. But here's the guys I have my eye on that would intrigue me in the first couple rounds:

• JOK: This goes without saying, you all know I love him. He's my favorite player in the draft and I think he will be elite. Being able to run a base defense with him on the slot would change the very nature of our defense in a good way.
• Newsome: I think he's literally the perfect fit at CB for the Bills. He plays zone, is a fine tackler, and only allowed one reception over 10 yards last year. He's literally exactly what the Bills look for in a corner
• Farley: He's not the great scheme fit Newsome is. And his back is currently broken. But if you have a chance to get the most talented defensive player in the draft at 30, you take it, well worth the dice roll
• Ojulari: If one of the top DEs falls to us I hope it's him. He has good traits, actually produced in college against top competition, and is significantly younger than the rest of the DE class, meaning there's room to grow. I like him a lot more than Paye.
• Oweh: I don't love it. And the lack of production terrifies me. But if the board falls a certain way I'm resigned to it
• Dickerson: One of my favorite players in the draft. Slot him in at LG this year and long term replacement at center. Think of him as our next Eric Wood
• Stokes: He's a little older and his play in college was more "fine" than elite, but he has elite size, length, and speed, is a willing tackler, and plays zone. Basically he's everything the Bills want in a CB. I'm thinking more second round but don't be surprised if the Bills grab him at 30.
• Molden: A bit undersized in terms of length, but he's a very strong tackling CB that plays zone. Some feel he may have to switch to S, but I don't think he would have to in the Bills zone heavy scheme. Maybe he's an ideal nickel short term and developmental boundary?
• Melifonwu: Very raw, but great traits and punishing physicality. Would be a very fun fit in Buffalo.
• Cisco: More of a third round option, but he could be a great nickel corner development option. He played "rover" in Syracuse, which sounds to me a lot like "big nickel"

I have JOK as a top ten player, I doubt he gets anywhere near us.

Love Stokes, Melifonwu. Like Newsome.

Don't like the of Ojulari for us, think he's 3 4 outside rusher for a team like Rams.

Have Dickerson, Oweh, and Farley rated highly.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I have JOK as a top ten player, I doubt he gets anywhere near us.

Love Stokes, Melifonwu. Like Newsome.

Don't like the of Ojulari for us, think he's 3 4 outside rusher for a team like Rams.

Have Dickerson, Oweh, and Farley rated highly.

How do you guys rate Tyson Campbell in relation to the likes of Stokes & Melifonwu? I have him right there & he'd be a great target at 61 should they go another position @30.

 

[Husko]

Do you have any late round guys?

Not a lot. As I've said, I think the third day is going to be pretty bleak in talent. You don't just shrink the draft class by 50% and not have consequences. For example, everyone likes Isaiah McDuffie as a nice day 3 depth LB option. But guess what I recently discovered? Darn near half the league has met with this kid. Everyone likes him as a Matt Milano type. He's getting drafted higher than anyone thinks. But he's one I guess.

Jacoby Stevens is another guy on my radar just because the Bills met with him. He's your prototypical college safety that as a pro is a LB tweener because he doesn't have the speed to play safety, which is what the Bills look for in their LBs (Milano, e.g.). He makes a lot of sense to me as a Milano backup, bringing secondary speed to our backup LB group, something that got exposed last year.

In general if you want to figure out what the Bills might do on day 3 check out the LBs. The Bills have met with a fleet of day 3 LB prospects. They clearly recognize that as a depth issue and I'd be shocked if they didn't take one.

 

[Husko]

How do you guys rate Tyson Campbell in relation to the likes of Stokes & Melifonwu? I have him right there & he'd be a great target at 61 should they go another position @30.

To me he's definitely a second round pick, in a group behind those other guys. He's a lot more raw than them and you're really relying a lot more on projection because of his elite traits as opposed to actual college production. He's in a class with Kelvin Joseph. If I were to rate the CBs outside the top 2 it would be:

1. Newsome
(gap)
2. Stokes
3. Melinfonwu
4. Molden
(gap)
5. Samuel
6. Campbell
7. Joseph

 

[Husko]

I have JOK as a top ten player, I doubt he gets anywhere near us.

Love Stokes, Melifonwu. Like Newsome.

Don't like the of Ojulari for us, think he's 3 4 outside rusher for a team like Rams.

Have Dickerson, Oweh, and Farley rated highly.

Fascinating. I like him specifically because I like him as a 4-3 DE. He doesn't have the explosive speed and range I usually associate with 3-4 OLB and I think he's big and strong enough to hold his own in run support. I know he did both in college (up rush and hand in dirt), but I project him as a true 4-3 DE. More than anything, his ability to produce at a high level against the SEC combined with him being a full year (and 2 in some cases!) younger than the rest of the class catapult him to the top of my board.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

To me he's definitely a second round pick, in a group behind those other guys. He's a lot more raw than them and you're really relying a lot more on projection because of his elite traits as opposed to actual college production. He's in a class with Kelvin Joseph. If I were to rate the CBs outside the top 2 it would be:

1. Newsome
(gap)
2. Stokes
3. Melinfonwu
4. Molden
(gap)
5. Samuel
6. Campbell
7. Joseph

A few of these guys are pure slot CB/NBs though. If we're talking about drafting CB2 i think Campbell is higher. Samuel too - but i know you really don't like him.

Interesting point about the LB group. It's already looking pretty chock full to me - unless they carry seven.

Also - I'm with @TalkingProuder - Ojulari is more 3-4 OLB. There's an arguement that the same could be said about Oweh though.

 

[TalkingProuder]

Fascinating. I like him specifically because I like him as a 4-3 DE. He doesn't have the explosive speed and range I usually associate with 3-4 OLB and I think he's big and strong enough to hold his own in run support. I know he did both in college (up rush and hand in dirt), but I project him as a true 4-3 DE. More than anything, his ability to produce at a high level against the SEC combined with him being a full year (and 2 in some cases!) younger than the rest of the class catapult him to the top of my board.

Dane Brugler of the athletic loves him. I just prefer Payton Turner in our scheme.

 

[Husko]

A few of these guys are pure slot CB/NBs though. If we're talking about drafting CB2 i think Campbell is higher. Samuel too - but i know you really don't like him.

Interesting point about the LB group. It's already looking pretty chock full to me - unless they carry seven.

Also - I'm with @TalkingProuder - Ojulari is more 3-4 OLB. There's an arguement that the same could be said about Oweh though.

Well, for whatever it's worth, most people that are pushing Samuel to Buffalo are doing it with the idea that he's purely a nickel guy because of his size. I still don't like it, because he's so bad at tackling, but that's the narrative. Of the guys I like, Molden is the only one that I think might be beholden to the slot because he's only 5'9.4'' and has some top end speed issues, but even he I think could develop into a fine outside guy long term if that's what they want. Newsome, Farley, Stokes, and Melinfonwu I see all as boundary guys.

 

[JThorne]

Here's the draft rules I've accumulated after interning for a club and seeing how about 25 years of drafts panned out after interning:

1. Always trust your board. You put the work into it. If you don't trust your board, then you're wasting months of work.
2. Pick BPA available. Especially now, the NFL turns over players fast. Just take the highest rated player on your board.
3. Exception to rule #2. If you don't have a QB, you need to go get one, even if you slightly overdraft him.
4. If you've got similarly rated players available, take the lineman. There are 9 of them on the field every play.
5. Quarterbacks, offensive tackles, defensive ends/passrushers, and cornerbacks have more influence on play outcomes than any other position.

Why not center?

 

[Der Jaeger]

Why not center?

Same idea as why not the MLB. They call the protections, sure. But if the center is being overwhelmed at the point of attack, it's relatively easy to shift the blocking scheme and have guards double.

If you're offensive tackle is getting beat, that requires a bigger shift in the protection scheme, and takes receives out of patterns, or at least delays the pattern. Conversely, if your OTs are winning, it really opens up what an offense can do.

 

[markpenske]

I have a bold prediction: Devonte Smith falls a bit and Buffalo trades up to get him.

 

[JThorne]

Same idea as why not the MLB. They call the protections, sure. But if the center is being overwhelmed at the point of attack, it's relatively easy to shift the blocking scheme and have guards double.

If you're offensive tackle is getting beat, that requires a bigger shift in the protection scheme, and takes receives out of patterns, or at least delays the pattern. Conversely, if your OTs are winning, it really opens up what an offense can do.

Just seems to me that a quality center takes a lot of pressure off of the qb. Plus less miscues which are almost always a turnover or significant loss of yards.

And since you used the "influence of play outcome" caveat, a bad center can eliminate all other players on the offense just by being shite at snapping/communicating snap count. The successful snap is really the most important part of the play if you think about it logically. But that's fine. You be you. I'll put a center in my top positions of importance.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Just seems to me that a quality center takes a lot of pressure off of the qb. Plus less miscues which are almost always a turnover or significant loss of yards.

And since you used the "influence of play outcome" caveat, a bad center can eliminate all other players on the offense just by being shite at snapping/communicating snap count. The successful snap is really the most important part of the play if you think about it logically. But that's fine. You be you. I'll put a center in my top positions of importance.

Plenty of centers don't call the protection scheme. And most centers shotgun snap the ball anyway. If a center can't to that, then get another center.

Mostly, you're describing what an NFL caliber center should be able to do. Good offensive tackles eliminate the need for the QB to move from the pocket, and it's far, far more valuable a position.

 

[Husko]

Tackles are absolutely most important, in my opinion, after that I'd say it's scheme dependent. If you have a power running scheme where you're pulling guards every running play, you sure better have quality guards. In a spread offense like the Bills I'm inclined to care more about C, but again it is scheme dependent.

 

[Husko]

I have a bold prediction: Devonte Smith falls a bit and Buffalo trades up to get him.

That would elate me. I don't care how much he weighs, dude can play.

 

[Dirty Dog]

That would elate me. I don't care how much he weighs, dude can play.

What do you think of the two Moores at WR? I know WR is not the biggest need, but with such a great WR class, seems like it wouldn’t be the worst idea to take one early. Especially a speedy playmaker

 

[Husko]

What do you think of the two Moores at WR? I know WR is not the biggest need, but with such a great WR class, seems like it wouldn’t be the worst idea to take one early. Especially a speedy playmaker

Anytime you talk about the two Moore's you should also loop in Toney. All three of them are tiny and super fast and expected to go in the same range. It took me awhile to distinguish them, but here's where I'm at:

-Elijah is the most complete WR and it's not even close. Toney and Rondale lead the NCAA in percent of passes caught within 5 yards of the LOS, which is a big warning sign for projecting NFL success. Elijah is less gadgety and more your stereotypical super fast slot receiver. Probably the most pro ready from that perspective and the one I would prioritize as a long term Beasley replacement. He's still suepr fast, but maybe doesn't quite have the twitch of Toney or the straight line speed of Rondale.
-Toney is super gadgety yes, and has concerns about his age and how long it took him to emerge. But that said I think he's the most electric. He doesn't have the historic 40 time that Rondale boasts, but I think he's the most elusive, twitchy, best at changing directions, etc. He lined up all over the formation including inside and outside, and showed a bit of a route tree even if his route running is underdeveloped, so maybe he has a more versatile ceiling than Elijah, but in the short term I think you're looking at more of a returner and gadget guy. Think of the development curve and track of Tyreek Hill.
-Rondale has hardly played the last 2 years. His one full season was an unbelievable freshman season statistically, but again remember that even then it was a ton of usage but not a lot of hard routes. He has elite straight line speed, but he's kind of compact and almost looks more like a RB than a WR to me. I don't think he has the elusiveness of toney. Because of his elite freshman year a lot of people think he has the most potential, but I'm not so sure. He's definitely the one that scares me the most in terms of bust potential, but who knows? I think of him as more of a WR/RB hybrid than an actual RB.

All that said, I'm super late to the game on getting in on these guys. Up until like 3 weeks ago they were all the same player in my head.