Prospect Info: Canucks select D Elias Pettersson , 3rd Round, 80th Overall, 2022

[F A N]

Regarding the comparison between EP2 and Mynio, I have to respectfully disagree with your statement. EP2 may have had terrible production in the SHL, but his junior stats were promising, showing notable potential (14 GP, 5 G, 10 A). His scouting report also highlighted his projectible frame, strong skating, and shooting abilities, which were well-validated by his highlight clips. On the other hand, Mynio seems to lack all the aforementioned qualities EP2 possessed.

I get that you don't like Mynio as a prospect but can you at least acknowledge that some may view him differently? EP2, like Mynio, was not ranked to go in the first 2 rounds. EP2 had a good shot and a projectable frame at the time of the draft. But there were discrepancies in his scouting reports. It seems that when he was good he was good but there were some reports about him being inconsistent and having questionable hockey sense. Despite having offensive potential, he also played in the U18 in his draft-eligible year and had 0 points in 6 games. I'm excited to have EP2 in the pipeline but he was hardly considered a home run pick at the time of the draft.

Mynio is a good player. He knows how to defend. Every scouting report I've read suggests this. Are there areas of improvement? Of course. But in comparison to EP2 (the draft-eligible prospect), there seems to be less questions about his ability to defend. EP2 had a very good draft+1 season. If Mynio has similarly good draft +! season the conversation would be similar.

As for Jayden Perron, I disagree with your assessment. While it is true that there are many small scoring forwards in junior hockey that don't become anything, again a certain type of small players are better bets. I was very impressed with Perron's high hockey IQ and smarts which he displayed all over the ice (not just when he possessed puck). You mentioned that Perron is "sort of finished product", and I partially agree since I dare to say his hockey sense seems almost NHL-ready. With the right development, gaining strength and further refining his skating and shooting skills, I believe Perron's chances of becoming an impactful NHL player are far greater than those of an average 3rd round selection or many other small scoring forwards in junior hockey.

Perron is a talented player but he drastically fell from his preliminary draft rankings. That often doesn't bode well for players who are small skilled players. I agree with @biturbo19 that these guys don't often make it. Sure his chances of becoming an impactful NHL player is greater than those of an average 3rd round selection but his chances of becoming an NHL player is about as high as his chances of becoming an impactful NHL player. Like I said previously, I would have been excited had the Canucks taken a chance on him but if the Canucks choose to pass at that point I don't really have an issue with that.

 

[TomWillander1RD]

I get that you don't like Mynio as a prospect but can you at least acknowledge that some may view him differently? EP2, like Mynio, was not ranked to go in the first 2 rounds. EP2 had a good shot and a projectable frame at the time of the draft. But there were discrepancies in his scouting reports. It seems that when he was good he was good but there were some reports about him being inconsistent and having questionable hockey sense. Despite having offensive potential, he also played in the U18 in his draft-eligible year and had 0 points in 6 games. I'm excited to have EP2 in the pipeline but he was hardly considered a home run pick at the time of the draft.

Mynio is a good player. He knows how to defend. Every scouting report I've read suggests this. Are there areas of improvement? Of course. But in comparison to EP2 (the draft-eligible prospect), there seems to be less questions about his ability to defend. EP2 had a very good draft+1 season. If Mynio has similarly good draft +! season the conversation would be similar.



Perron is a talented player but he drastically fell from his preliminary draft rankings. That often doesn't bode well for players who are small skilled players. I agree with @biturbo19 that these guys don't often make it. Sure his chances of becoming an impactful NHL player is greater than those of an average 3rd round selection but his chances of becoming an NHL player is about as high as his chances of becoming an impactful NHL player. Like I said previously, I would have been excited had the Canucks taken a chance on him but if the Canucks choose to pass at that point I don't really have an issue with that.

I certainly acknowledge that some individuals may view him differently, as indicated by the enthusiastic praise he received as the best player on the ice during the Memorial Cup Final. However, I must admit that I found this assessment a little puzzling and, in my opinion, somewhat exaggerated.

As a statistician, when comparing prospects, I take into account their expected values over a replacement level player considering different potential outcomes. This involves assessing the perceived probability of a player reaching certain levels (although I must admit they are just guesses) and their corresponding trade values once they achieve those potentials. This approach influenced my preference for the team to select Willander over Benson, despite Benson being considered to have a higher potential (I'm not particularly fond of small skilled players). I believe Willander has a high chance of becoming a high-end top 4 defenseman, which carries significant value (similar to that of average 1st line winger which Benson could potentially become). Furthermore, I see untapped offensive potential in him, making it possible for him to become a top pairing defenseman, especially considering the team's current makeup.

While it may indeed be a slim chance for Perron to become a top 6 winger, if I were to place a bet, I would consider the chances of that scenario is higher than Mynio's likelihood of making it to the NHL. From what I've gathered, Mynio's potential appears to lie in becoming a bottom pairing defenseman, with a slim chance of reaching a low-end top 4 defenseman status if everything goes exceptionally well. This assessment seems reasonable, considering his skill set, and such projections doesn't offer a substantial expected value.

However, I do acknowledge that his production during the regular season was much better than that during the playoffs. This difference could be attributed to his coach relying more heavily on older players during the playoffs and additional help brought in through trade. I do hope that Mynio surprises me with the progress and development over the next season, and I'll be more than happy to admit that my prediction model was wrong.

 

[DFAC]

Hughes, Hronek, Willander, D-Petey could be an outstanding top 4 in a few years.

I remember a time when our defence core was supposedly rebuilt with Juolevi, Rathbone, Woo and Hughes...

 

[MarkMM]

I remember a time when our defence core was supposedly rebuilt with Juolevi, Rathbone, Woo and Hughes...

Well Hughes and Hronek are already bonafide NHL players so already this comparison favours the current team; Willander and Juolevi and Woo and EP2 arguably a wash, so all in all, Hughes, Hronek, Willander and EP2 is easily better than Juolevi, Rathbone, Woo and Hughes.

 

[MS]

I feel like Pettersson is an example of a fairly similar pick to a guy like Mynio is a lot of ways though.

A guy with a frame, responsible defensive instincts, and some projectable tools, but pretty pedestrian production in a junior league. It's about that idea of growing into themselves and becoming a different player. Pettersson has done that to become a very promising depth D prospect.

Guys like Jayden Perron are generally speaking, a lot closer to, "they are what they are" sort of finished products. It may be "swinging for the fences" in the sense that you're hoping for improvement or growth that is extremely unlikely...and every once in a blue moon, that actually pans out. But it's like swinging at a heater of a pitch hoping to hit it out of the park. More often...you're going to completely whiff and it's the guys like Pettersson or Mynio who have a huge amount of potential development "headroom" that end up surprising and turning into viable NHLers.


Frankly...the odds don't exactly favour any of these guys turning into really good long-term NHLers. But Pettersson's development is tracking like a guy who could actually have a solid contributing career as an NHL depth defenceman. Little scoring guys like Perron or defensively, Jordan Subban are always lauded by fans 'round here as a pick. But the vast majority of them never amount to anything. They only really have utility if they end up being a huge "hit". Whereas guys like Pettersson, or potentially Mynio...have some utility even if they just end up being a useful depth player.

I don't really see the comparison here at all.

EP2 is already 6'3 200 and is going to have plus size/reach as an NHL player. Mynio is going to be undersized. I think his frame looks very small.

Pettersson was also playing regularly in a men's league in his draft+1 and put up pretty dynamic offensive numbers when playing against junior competition - over a point-per-game. Made the Swedish WJC team in his draft+1.

To me Pettersson is a totally different level of prospect who has size, mobility, pretty impressive skill for a defensive defender, and a sharp development curve that has him playing at high levels at a young age and who has all kinds of top-4 potential. Mynio is just an undersized d-man with no real impressive tools or upside.

 

[TomWillander1RD]

I don't really see the comparison here at all.

EP2 is already 6'3 200 and is going to have plus size/reach as an NHL player. Mynio is going to be undersized. I think his frame looks very small.

Pettersson was also playing regularly in a men's league in his draft+1 and put up pretty dynamic offensive numbers when playing against junior competition - over a point-per-game. Made the Swedish WJC team in his draft+1.

To me Pettersson is a totally different level of prospect who has size, mobility, pretty impressive skill for a defensive defender, and a sharp development curve that has him playing at high levels at a young age and who has all kinds of top-4 potential. Mynio is just an undersized d-man with no real impressive tools or upside.

I believe biturbo19 was comparing Mynio's selection to EP2's selection in the 2022 draft, rather than EP2's current state. Nevertheless, I have no doubt that EP2 was a significantly more promising prospect before the 2022 draft than Mynio is at the present moment.

I wish Mynio will progress and reach the level as EP2's current state by next year, but that would truly be a wishful thinking.

 

[LemonSauceD]

Despite being taken in the 3rd round, you have to also take into consideration where they were ranked amongst scouts and draft lists.

Let’s compare our recent 3rd rounders and where they were rated:

EP2:
Ranked #57 by Elite Prospects
Ranked #129 by FCHockey
Ranked #152 by McKeen's Hockey
Ranked #37 by NHL Central Scouting

Averages around #93 or a late 3rd round pick

Mynio:
Ranked #167 by FCHockey
Ranked #176 by McKeen's Hockey
Ranked #62 by NHL Central Scouting

Averages around #135 or a early 5th round pick (only 3 sources have ranked him, so this is very generous)

Brzustewicz:
Ranked #52 by Elite Prospects
Ranked #51 by FCHockey
Ranked #61 by TSN/Craig Button
Ranked #66 by McKeen's Hockey
Ranked #52 by TSN/McKenzie
Ranked #41 by NHL Central Scouting

Averages out to be #53 or a mid 2nd round pick.

It is fair to suggest Mynio isn’t comparable to EP2 despite both being taken similarly around the same draft pick. It matches up with all available scouting reports on both players. It’s also fair to suggest Mynio was a major reach in the third round.

Furthermore, Brzustewicz and EP2 aren’t exactly comparable due to one being significantly ranked higher than where they were drafted. It is reasonable to assume Brzustewicz is a better prospect than EP2 was at the same age. Scouting reports, footage, and other analysis confirms so.

Despite all 3 being drafted around the same selections, it’s apparent all 3 are very much different in terms of quality at the time of selection. It’s reasonable to suggest all 3 will have very different projections, developmental outcomes, and growth.

 

[ChilliBilly]

I feel like Pettersson is an example of a fairly similar pick to a guy like Mynio is a lot of ways though.

A guy with a frame, responsible defensive instincts, and some projectable tools, but pretty pedestrian production in a junior league. It's about that idea of growing into themselves and becoming a different player. Pettersson has done that to become a very promising depth D prospect.

Guys like Jayden Perron are generally speaking, a lot closer to, "they are what they are" sort of finished products. It may be "swinging for the fences" in the sense that you're hoping for improvement or growth that is extremely unlikely...and every once in a blue moon, that actually pans out. But it's like swinging at a heater of a pitch hoping to hit it out of the park. More often...you're going to completely whiff and it's the guys like Pettersson or Mynio who have a huge amount of potential development "headroom" that end up surprising and turning into viable NHLers.


Frankly...the odds don't exactly favour any of these guys turning into really good long-term NHLers. But Pettersson's development is tracking like a guy who could actually have a solid contributing career as an NHL depth defenceman. Little scoring guys like Perron or defensively, Jordan Subban are always lauded by fans 'round here as a pick. But the vast majority of them never amount to anything. They only really have utility if they end up being a huge "hit". Whereas guys like Pettersson, or potentially Mynio...have some utility even if they just end up being a useful depth player.

The odd are roughly 1 in 4.

From Dobber prospect 2000 - 2009.

 

[Nona Di Giuseppe]

The odd are roughly 1 in 4.

From Dobber prospect 2000 - 2009.

View attachment 730867

Yes. Unfavorable odds.

 

[F A N]

I certainly acknowledge that some individuals may view him differently, as indicated by the enthusiastic praise he received as the best player on the ice during the Memorial Cup Final. However, I must admit that I found this assessment a little puzzling and, in my opinion, somewhat exaggerated.

As a statistician, when comparing prospects, I take into account their expected values over a replacement level player considering different potential outcomes. This involves assessing the perceived probability of a player reaching certain levels (although I must admit they are just guesses) and their corresponding trade values once they achieve those potentials. This approach influenced my preference for the team to select Willander over Benson, despite Benson being considered to have a higher potential (I'm not particularly fond of small skilled players). I believe Willander has a high chance of becoming a high-end top 4 defenseman, which carries significant value (similar to that of average 1st line winger which Benson could potentially become). Furthermore, I see untapped offensive potential in him, making it possible for him to become a top pairing defenseman, especially considering the team's current makeup.

I don't think we are disagreeing here except for our views on Mynio. I am not one taking issue selecting Willander over Benson.

While it may indeed be a slim chance for Perron to become a top 6 winger, if I were to place a bet, I would consider the chances of that scenario is higher than Mynio's likelihood of making it to the NHL. From what I've gathered, Mynio's potential appears to lie in becoming a bottom pairing defenseman, with a slim chance of reaching a low-end top 4 defenseman status if everything goes exceptionally well. This assessment seems reasonable, considering his skill set, and such projections doesn't offer a substantial expected value.

However, I do acknowledge that his production during the regular season was much better than that during the playoffs. This difference could be attributed to his coach relying more heavily on older players during the playoffs and additional help brought in through trade. I do hope that Mynio surprises me with the progress and development over the next season, and I'll be more than happy to admit that my prediction model was wrong.

We can agree to disagree here. I think the chances of Perron being a top 6 winger is lower than Mynio being a bottom pairing NHL Dman. To me that's what justifies the pick. But as I expressed in the Mynio thread, I like Mynio a lot. He's my favourite pick in the 3rd/4th rounds.

I favour transitional Dmen who defends well. I feel that Mynio fits the description. Of course he could bust. I liked Woo at the time of the draft as well. I like D prospects whose starting point is that they defend well.

 

[TomWillander1RD]

I don't think we are disagreeing here except for our views on Mynio. I am not one taking issue selecting Willander over Benson.



We can agree to disagree here. I think the chances of Perron being a top 6 winger is lower than Mynio being a bottom pairing NHL Dman. To me that's what justifies the pick. But as I expressed in the Mynio thread, I like Mynio a lot. He's my favourite pick in the 3rd/4th rounds.

I favour transitional Dmen who defends well. I feel that Mynio fits the description. Of course he could bust. I liked Woo at the time of the draft as well. I like D prospects whose starting point is that they defend well.

You seem to have observed something positive in Mynio's performance that I haven't had the chance to witness, and it's great to hear about positive reviews.

When evaluating prospects, one aspect I focus on is their ability to quickly process the game and level of engagement. This can be referred to as "hockey sense" and I realize that assessing this aspect can be subjective. Since I haven't personally seen Mynio play, perhaps, I shouldn't have been too hasty in dismissing the selection.

I must admit that my frustration with Mynio's pick was due to my desire for Perron to be selected as a Canucks prospect. I was impressed with Perron's hockey sense in the game I watched, and from my perspective, picking Perron with the late 3rd round pick seemed like a no-brainer.

If Mynio had been chosen in the 4th round, I would have been more supportive of the decision and would be complaining about another player Canucks had selected with 89th pick over Perron.

 

[IslandBeast]

I remember a time when our defence core was supposedly rebuilt with Juolevi, Rathbone, Woo and Hughes...

I'll call then raise with a west coast express 2.0 Shinkaruk-Horvat-Virtanen

Same thing every year, we have a prospect that nobody has actually seen play and we pencil him in to our future plan, then he inevitably fades away into nothingness.

 

[Shareefruck]

Well Hughes and Hronek are already bonafide NHL players so already this comparison favours the current team; Willander and Juolevi and Woo and EP2 arguably a wash, so all in all, Hughes, Hronek, Willander and EP2 is easily better than Juolevi, Rathbone, Woo and Hughes.

That's really not saying much. He's not saying they're comparable anyways, he's pointing out how foolish we can be with our presumptions.

 

[Nick Lang]

I believe biturbo19 was comparing Mynio's selection to EP2's selection in the 2022 draft, rather than EP2's current state. Nevertheless, I have no doubt that EP2 was a significantly more promising prospect before the 2022 draft than Mynio is at the present moment.

I wish Mynio will progress and reach the level as EP2's current state by next year, but that would truly be a wishful thinking.

On paper it would seem Mynio may be a reach or a weaker prospect but obviously there was something that made them prefer him as a selection. There are probably some statistics and/or form of measurement they are going by that we are not privileged to. Stats are helpful but also not the entire story. Besides gathering stats part of the scouts job must be using their hockey sense to judge the player as well. Hopefully whomever made the decision is correct or saw something that we don't off of the stat sheet.

For the record I haven't seen him play much. I am one of those that tuned into the Memorial Cup Final and he stood out as one of if not their best player in a game where his team was chasing all game. They better not have based it off of one game though. Hey, at least it wasn't #5 overall right?

 

[F A N]

On paper it would seem Mynio may be a reach or a weaker prospect but obviously there was something that made them prefer him as a selection. There are probably some statistics and/or form of measurement they are going by that we are not privileged to. Stats are helpful but also not the entire story. Besides gathering stats part of the scouts job must be using their hockey sense to judge the player as well. Hopefully whomever made the decision is correct or saw something that we don't off of the stat sheet.

For the record I haven't seen him play much. I am one of those that tuned into the Memorial Cup Final and he stood out as one of if not their best player in a game where his team was chasing all game. They better not have based it off of one game though. Hey, at least it wasn't #5 overall right?

Mynio strikes me as the type of Dman where if you didn't notice him all game then he had a good game.

 

[Deeds26]

 

[Lindgren]

All six Swedes are named Beijer. I looked, and they're unsigned. What a coup it'd be for the Canucks if they could grab all six of the Beijer brothers.

 

[Deeds26]

 

[Vector]

I have no doubt that Pettersson can handle the physical side of the NHL. It's the other parts of his game that need to take a big leap this season.

 

[Vector]

 

[LemonSauceD]

Ohlund offspring

 

[petterdaddy]

For a moment I thought he was literally saying the 2nd Elias Pettersson, but then I re read it and realized I was just baked.

 

[arttk]

Looks like he destroyed himself

 

[Knight53]

1st point in 1st game in Allsvenskan

 

[Hockeyfrilla]

2 apples already