Current state of Sens roster formation

Micklebot

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Apr 27, 2010
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Mick,

Imagine the NHL did not allow trades or FA signings. So that the Sens can only draft their players.

2 rounds, 7 players, in each round, in 5 years (incredible in its own right.. That is 2 extra picks a round)

this team has 3 players to show for it. 3 in 5 years. A rookie is 20, a veteran on his last leg is 37.. so 18 years.. and thus 3.5 sets of 5 years. We would have 10/11 players. accounting for injuries that derail careers, we would be at 9 or 10!!!!

a team is 22 players, 20 must play. We would have 9 or 10.. So needing 9-10 from rounds 3-6. Insane! And this, after injury correction. So, 10 or 11 is needed out of draft. We would need rounds 3-6 to be just as successful as rounds 1 and 2??? Impossible.

And the 3 guys are from 7 picks in each rounds 1 and 2. You normally have 5! Correct that way, and you may be down to 2 players. And so for a life cycle of 18 years, we would have 7/8 after injury correction!

This has to stop. It has been this way since 2002. This team will spend the next 100 years mired in mediocracy if they do not improve this.

Any 5 year period should bring you closer to 5 players (assuming 5 and 5 picks in each round). And should produce close to 7 players, if at 7 and 7 picks. Essentially every 2 picks in rounds 1 and 2, should yield 1 player. Now I am not suggesting every 2 picks gets you an HOF.. but a 3rd liner and better and a top 4 D and a goalie (I hope you understand the goalie is of the entire 18 year cycle)..

18 years, 36 picks, 18 players, 14/15 are left after injuries. Rounds 3-6 get you the remaining 7/8 guys . Now as you consider modern reality of trades and FAs, you still have a perfectly balanced system, where your input is equal to your output.

I hope the Andlauer/Staios/Staios' replacement(s), do way better than the Previous crop.
I'd rather imagine people judged all 32 teams by the same set of standards, without cherry picking a subset of data points to distort the picture, and us a timeframe long enough to allow for the random variations that occure when drafting 17 yr old kids. Wouldn't that be nice!
 

bert

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Norris definitely not a foundational piece. If you could trade him you'd do it in a second, but he's unmovable

The rest can be agreed on, give or take
I agree 100 percent. They need more Joseph's not less though. More speed and physicality up front.
 
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bert

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I actually don't even have many qualms about this roster other than goaltending and Hamonic getting any deployment at all. Fix those two things and I think we see a decent improvement.
The d core needs an absolute overhaul. Way too small and soft. We are yet again at that time where if anyone is paying attention the d cores that are left are big mobile and hard to play against. Ottawa probably has the softest group in the league

One of if not both of Chychrun and Chabot need to go Kleven needs to be in and they need to go get 2 more physical heavy D men that can play the right side.
 
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Beech

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Sure but this all about framing.

I can reframe this to make the Sens look good too. In this timeframe, Ottawa drafted 4/7 of their core players in Chabot, Tkachuk, Pinto and Batherson. They also drafted a legitimate #1 goalie in Joey Daccord and possibly another one coming in Mads Sogaard. On top of this, they got value out of Colin White on their third line for a few seasons (or technically higher), Formenton was trending to be an elite PK guy that can score but circumstances out of Ottawa’s control took him out of the line-up, JBD is turning into a solid shot blocking bottom pairing dman, and Kastelic is centering our 4th line.

Is this a bit rosey? Sure. But your post is just the opposite side of this. We don’t suck because our second round picks in 2015 flopped, this is an arbitrary timeframe where we had some good drafts and some bad - like all teams.
5 years, of players who are today 23 to 28. That is the heart of your team.

In a period of rebuild, makings pick, way more precious than when you are an elite team. And in a period when they drafted 7 guys per year. Success was mandatory, not optional.

the 2015-2019 draft should have been the foundation of your team. Even, if the team was not in rebuild. All teams generally reflect players who came into the league from 4 to 9, 10 or 11 years earlier. I excluded 2014 and 2013 from the Sens draft, as that would have shown an even bleaker picture.

This is the NHL. A draft and develop league. It is not the NBA and its liberal FA and Bird rules and opt in/opt out ridicules options. And it is not the NBA or MLB where teams can exceed the CAP and pay a luxury tax. And unlike the NFL, contracts are guaranteed. You draft and you develop and hopefully you succeed with that.

Trades and FA are to complement/supplement. Not to build with.

When we end up with Logan Brown and Boston ends up with Charlie McAvoy. You see why Boston has been elite the last 7 years and we have not. We get Collin White, Vancouver gets Boeser, Phili gets Konecny. We get Bowers, Buffalo gets Jokiharji (An RHD that logged 18-20 Minutes a game, was a plus 14). Think of our need for a 2nd pair RHD, or possibly a 1st pair RHD.

In the NHL, you draft your way out of trouble. There is no option plan B.

The Ottawa Senators must become a more successful drafting team. If a period like 2015-2019 ever occurs again. Their 7 firsts and seconds, must become more than 3 players (possibly 4 if Soggard develops). Otherwise, they will remain mired in mediocracy as they are now.

It can be disheartening to see picks 1-3 spots after us, develop into quality players. At some point, we must be the ones that hit and leave the misses to others.
 
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dumbdick

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5 years, of players who are today 23 to 28. That is the heart of your team.

In a period of rebuild, makings pick, way more precious than when you are an elite team. And in a period when they drafted 7 guys per year. Success was mandatory, not optional.

the 2015-2019 draft should have been the foundation of your team. Even, if the team was not in rebuild. All teams generally reflect players who came into the league from 4 to 9, 10 or 11 years earlier. I excluded 2014 and 2013 from the Sens draft, as that would have shown an even bleaker picture.

This is the NHL. A draft and develop league. It is not the NBA and its liberal FA and Bird rules and opt in/opt out ridicules options. And it is not the NBA or MLB where teams can exceed the CAP and pay a luxury tax. And unlike the NFL, contracts are guaranteed. You draft and you develop and hopefully you succeed with that.

Trades and FA are to complement/supplement. Not to build with.

When we end up with Logan Brown and Boston ends up with Charlie McAvoy. You see why Boston has been elite the last 7 years and we have not. We get Collin White, Vancouver gets Boeser, Phili gets Konecny. We get Bowers, Buffalo gets Jokiharji (An RHD that logged 18-20 Minutes a game, was a plus 14). Think of our need for a 2nd pair RHD, or possibly a 1st pair RHD.

In the NHL, you draft your way out of trouble. There is no option plan B.

The Ottawa Senators must become a more successful drafting team. If a period like 2015-2019 ever occurs again. Their 7 firsts and seconds, must become more than 3 players (possibly 4 if Soggard develops). Otherwise, they will remain mired in mediocracy as they are now.

It can be disheartening to see picks 1-3 spots after us, develop into quality players. At some point, we must be the ones that hit and leave the misses to others.
Cherry-picking nonsense.
 
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DylanSensFan

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We need to trade one of our top left D for a really solid right D. I like Chabot, but honestly I'm inclined to sign Chychrun if he wants to stay. Therefore, it may be time to trade Chabot.
 

Beech

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Nov 25, 2020
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A combination of bad trades, top players wanting out, underfunded rosters, budget coaching after Murray, and average drafting.
or the harsh reality. The one we are choosing to bury, because it leaves us nothing. Bad Amature side.

Andlauer/Staios have cleaned up the pro side, I don't believe many remain from the Dorion era.. The two scouts jettisoned last month are a testimony.

The Amature side has been just as bad. Cleaning of that house is needed.

It is our fear.. It is our reality. A bad Pro side, and a bad Amature side. It leaves us, NOTHING.

It leaves us a year or two of bad results away from being the worst team in the last 20 years. (win/loss record). It leaves us at 8 or 9 years out of the playoffs and we will be on the all time great list.

At some point, as a fan base, as a city, as a team, we need to confront reality and not cling to some fiction, some myth. Poor drafts, have hurt just as bad.

The myth of the great drafting Sens is just that, a myth. Meant to calm the fan base. Meant to instill hope. Don't worry Sens fans, yes we stink, but we have 2 second round picks this year. You know how well we draft.... we will fix it... Buy your tickets. Yes, get out there, celebrate those two 2nd round picks. And then 4 years later, we all forget that. And those two picks are out of the game or are 12/13 forwards or 6/7 Dmen. We finish 22nd overall. Miss the playoffs and no one says anything.

But Hey, you know how well the Sens draft...Okay.. I am glad they are good at something. Because, wining games is not one of them.

Get on Stat Muse, dial up worst record the last 17 years. See where the Sens rank and how the next two years could push them over the top.

I am hoping the Andlauer and Staios have a brain in their head. There should be job vacancies at the amature side.
 

Micklebot

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Apr 27, 2010
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or the harsh reality. The one we are choosing to bury, because it leaves us nothing. Bad Amature side.

Andlauer/Staios have cleaned up the pro side, I don't believe many remain from the Dorion era.. The two scouts jettisoned last month are a testimony.

The Amature side has been just as bad. Cleaning of that house is needed.

It is our fear.. It is our reality. A bad Pro side, and a bad Amature side. It leaves us, NOTHING.

It leaves us a year or two of bad results away from being the worst team in the last 20 years. (win/loss record). It leaves us at 8 or 9 years out of the playoffs and we will be on the all time great list.

At some point, as a fan base, as a city, as a team, we need to confront reality and not cling to some fiction, some myth. Poor drafts, have hurt just as bad.

The myth of the great drafting Sens is just that, a myth. Meant to calm the fan base. Meant to instill hope. Don't worry Sens fans, yes we stink, but we have 2 second round picks this year. You know how well we draft.... we will fix it... Buy your tickets. Yes, get out there, celebrate those two 2nd round picks. And then 4 years later, we all forget that. And those two picks are out of the game or are 12/13 forwards or 6/7 Dmen. We finish 22nd overall. Miss the playoffs and no one says anything.

But Hey, you know how well the Sens draft...Okay.. I am glad they are good at something. Because, wining games is not one of them.

Get on Stat Muse, dial up worst record the last 17 years. See where the Sens rank and how the next two years could push them over the top.

I am hoping the Andlauer and Staios have a brain in their head. There should be job vacancies at the amature side.
Compare Ottawa's drafting to the league as a whole, stop cherry picking, we've had these debates before, I've gone through the trouble of showing you countless examples of people that actually did a complete review of league drafting and how Ottawa did relative to the rest of the league. Until you actually compare the team to 31 other teams over that span, you aren't getting a clear picture and everything you post is just blowing smoke.

Here's a starting point:

Ottawa from 2008-2022

Picks: 95.
League average: 96.19

F:
Ottawa: 55 picks, 6186 gp, 3118pts
League average: 51.65 picks, 5847.3 gp 2920.87 pts

D:
Ottawa: 30 picks, 4406 GP, 1726 Pts
League average: 32.35 Picks, 3172 GP, 1116.41pts

G:
Ottawa: 10 picks, 574 GP
League Average: 9.77 picks, 422.8 GP.

Are we amazing? No, are we terrible? No, are we pretty close to average? Yup.
 
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BonHoonLayneCornell

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A combination of bad trades, top players wanting out, underfunded rosters, budget coaching after Murray, and average drafting.
This. It was not one singular thing that was the issue, it was a collection of them. If they'd just used more of the picks they had, I'm sure people would be relatively happy with the haul that would be at their disposal right now.
 

Beech

What A Wonderful Day
Nov 25, 2020
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Compare Ottawa's drafting to the league as a whole, stop cherry picking, we've had these debates before, I've gone through the trouble of showing you countless examples of people that actually did a complete review of league drafting and how Ottawa did relative to the rest of the league. Until you actually compare the team to 31 other teams over that span, you aren't getting a clear picture and everything you post is just blowing smoke.

Here's a starting point:

Ottawa from 2008-2022

Picks: 95.
League average: 96.19

F:
Ottawa: 55 picks, 6186 gp, 3118pts
League average: 51.65 picks, 5847.3 gp 2920.87 pts

D:
Ottawa: 30 picks, 4406 GP, 1726 Pts
League average: 32.35 Picks, 3172 GP, 1116.41pts

G:
Ottawa: 10 picks, 574 GP
League Average: 9.77 picks, 422.8 GP.

Are we amazing? No, are we terrible? No, are we pretty close to average? Yup.
We also allow players to play more. We do not have the luxury of turning them away. An inability to attract FAs. A piss poor record of trades, means that marginal players play.

Check out the many players that were here, played significant games, got traded, or FA'd out of town. And see their asses in the minors, or out of hockey all together, shortly thereafter.

In the 1990's I was in Quebec and then moved to Ontario. So, I still followed the HABS. The Habs would proudly display how, right after the Red wings, they had the most drafted players in the NHL. Now check out the HABS 1990--1999. Less the miraculous cup of 1993. And see their win loss record, average finish, etc.. And see Detroit's.

In the end Mick.. It is about a small number of variables
1) Win/Loss record. In the NHL, it is highly reflective of draft effectiveness.
2) qualitative analysis of a player and that analysis relative to team performance.
3) longevity, relative to performance and team success.

So, once a player gets to the big club, does the club's fortune improve (if so much as an inch)
Does he play on the top 3 forward lines, top 4 D, starting goalie.
Does he produce, all the while his team is doing well
Does he play 10 or more seasons, all the while the above.
Does he play to the level that was hoped for when drafted.

Now open any hockey reference site. Go through 2013-2019 (NO need earlier, as their impact is no longer felt by us..Zib aside). Do an assessment. Once you use the above 5 conditions, you get disappointed.

round 1 and 2. from 2013-2019.. produced 2 guys that met this, a 3rd (Chabot, fails some of the criteria)... a 4th, JBD is ??? who knows. At best he will pass only one of the conditions.. a 5th is possible (Soggard).

I don't need a 2nd rounder to play 500 games, produce 100 points, play mostly on the 4th line. All the while we spend his 7 years here, in 20-32 overall. His 500 games are meaningless. Not as a 2nd round pick.

I need him to play 700 games, give me 500 points, play on lines 2 or 3. And in his 10 years here, we make the playoffs 7 times or more, enjoy some playoff success. Like maybe a cup, or a finals visit, or 2 ECFs.

Who is the mother humping moron, who was okay with, or recommended/suggested the 2018 draft swaps that netted us JBD and Tychonik, for K'Andre Miller?????????? A stud top 4 d, at 6' 4". for a 6-7 D man and a bust.
 
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Micklebot

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Apr 27, 2010
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We also allow players to play more. We do not have the luxury of turning them away. An inability to attract FAs. A piss poor record of trades, means that marginal players play.

Check out the many players that were here, played significant games, got traded, or FA'd out of town. And see their asses in the minors, or out of hockey all together, shortly thereafter.

In the 1990's I was in Quebec and then moved to Ontario. So, I still followed the HABS. The Habs would proudly display how, right after the Red wings, they had the most drafted players in the NHL. Now check out the HABS 1990--1999. Less the miraculous cup of 1993. And see their win loss record, average finish, etc.. And see Detroit's.

In the end Mick.. It is about a small number of variables
1) Win/Loss record. In the NHL, it is highly reflective of draft effectiveness.
2) qualitative analysis of a player and that analysis relative to team performance.
3) longevity, relative to performance and team success.

So, once a player gets to the big club, does the club's fortune improve (if so much as an inch)
Does he play on the top 3 forward lines, top 4 D, starting goalie.
Does he produce, all the while his team is doing well
Does he play 10 or more seasons, all the while the above.
Does he play to the level that was hoped for when drafted.

Now open any hockey reference site. Go through 2013-2019 (NO need earlier, as their impact is no longer felt by us..Zib aside). Do an assessment. Once you use the above 5 conditions, you get disappointed.

round 1 and 2. from 2013-2019.. produced 2 guys that met this, a 3rd (Chabot, fails some of the criteria)... a 4th, JBD is ??? who knows. At best he will pass only one of the conditions.. a 5th is possible (Soggard).

I don't need a 2nd rounder to play 500 games, produce 100 points, play mostly on the 4th line. All the while we spend his 7 years here, in 20-32 overall. His 500 games are meaningless. Not as a 2nd round pick.

I need him to play 700 games, give me 500 points, play on lines 2 or 3. And in his 10 years here, we make the playoffs 7 times or more, enjoy some playoff success. Like maybe a cup, or a finals visit, or 2 ECFs.

Who is the mother humping moron, who was okay with, or recommended/suggested the 2018 draft swaps that netted us JBD and Tychonik, for K'Andre Miller?????????? A stud top 4 d, at 6' 4". for a 6-7 D man and a bust.
Your complaining about things that happen to every other team. Every team misses on a better guy that was drafted a couple spots later, it happens across the league but since you're only looking at one team it seems like a big deal.

When you grade a team against their peers, you actually need to go through the same process with their peers, otherwise you aren't really doing anything of use.

Actually do the work, put in the effort, until you do that, you're just blowing smoke.
 
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BonHoonLayneCornell

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I don't think a guilty verdict is a slam dunk; "politics" played a part in what is happening now and the evidence may not be convincing to a jury. Time will tell.
I just mean all of it combined. The circumstances will dictate it. I've read all the filings and have my own opinion out of what's available atm, but that's not what I meant.

First you'd need the verdict that exonerates them to give them that path, not just a murky not guilty. Then you're gonna need the League and the teams to be willing to go there, which seems like the biggest obstacle of all. Quenville still on the outside looking in. He was never found guilty of anything and carried a far higher stature than any of these guys. Then you consider that by the time a verdict comes down, they say by what 2025 or 2026? They'll have been out of competitive hockey for ~3 years and would likely be seen as reclamation projects with 3rd/4th line ceilings becase none of these guys were world beaters in the first place. That's not likely to entice teams to take on any associated baggage.
 
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CDN24

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Jun 17, 2009
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Compare Ottawa's drafting to the league as a whole, stop cherry picking, we've had these debates before, I've gone through the trouble of showing you countless examples of people that actually did a complete review of league drafting and how Ottawa did relative to the rest of the league. Until you actually compare the team to 31 other teams over that span, you aren't getting a clear picture and everything you post is just blowing smoke.

Here's a starting point:

Ottawa from 2008-2022

Picks: 95.
League average: 96.19

F:
Ottawa: 55 picks, 6186 gp, 3118pts
League average: 51.65 picks, 5847.3 gp 2920.87 pts

D:
Ottawa: 30 picks, 4406 GP, 1726 Pts
League average: 32.35 Picks, 3172 GP, 1116.41pts

G:
Ottawa: 10 picks, 574 GP
League Average: 9.77 picks, 422.8 GP.

Are we amazing? No, are we terrible? No, are we pretty close to average? Yup.
The biggest problem is average drafting is not going to cut it when you have an inability to attract free agents and a brutal trading record. Average drafting also includes teams that were in their contending window and trading away their picks to contend now.

I think the biggest issue with the drafting in the Dorion era and the rebuild era is that the Sens did not do enough drafting. If you consider the Karlsson trade as the start of the rebuild then there have been 5 drafts since 2019,20,21,22,23. In those 5 drafts the Sens drafted a total of 36 players. 1 more than the std 35 (7 a year).

5 1st round picks used in those 5 years
8 2nds used
3 3rds used

They did the typical sell players for picks Karllson, Duchene, Dzingle, Stone, Pageau among others. For all the significant assests they traded away they netted 3 extra 2nd round picks and lost 2 3rds. Has there been a full on rebuilding rebuilding team that drafted less than the Sens in the 1st 5 years of the rebuild?

Where did the picks go? Karlsson Duchene and Pageau all netted a 1st, there were a bunch of 2nds (2 for Karllson, 2 for Dizingl, one for stone, another and a 3rd in the Pageau deal.

A lot of picks were pissed away on moves that made little sense for a rebuilding team
Traded a 2nd and a 3rd for a 2nd in 2019 to move up a couple spots
threw a 3rd in the trade with Leafs to get zaitsev
a second for Matt Murray signing rights
another 2nd 3rd for a 2nd to move up in 2020 to get Kleven
a 2nd to get Derek stepan ( that 2nd became josh Doan)
a 3rd for travis Hamonic
a 1st 2nd and a 3rd for debrincat
a 3rd to get rid of Murray
a 2nd and a 4th to get rid of zaitsev
a first and 2 2nds to get Chychrun
 
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Micklebot

Moderator
Apr 27, 2010
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31,472
The biggest problem is average drafting is not going to cut it when you have an inability to attract free agents and a brutal trading record. Average drafting also includes teams that were in their contending window and trading away their picks to contend now.

I think the biggest issue with the drafting in the Dorion era and the rebuild era is that the Sens did not do enough drafting. If you consider the Karlsson trade as the start of the rebuild then there have been 5 drafts since 2019,20,21,22,23. In those 5 drafts the Sens drafted a total of 36 players. 1 more than the std 35 (7 a year).

5 1st round picks used in those 5 years
8 2nds used
3 3rds used

They did the typical sell players for picks Karllson, Duchene, Dzingle, Stone, Pageau among others. For all the significant assests they traded away they netted 3 extra 2nd round picks and lost 2 3rds. Has there been a full on rebuilding rebuilding team that drafted less than the Sens in the 1st 5 years of the rebuild?

Where did the picks go? Karlsson Duchene and Pageau all netted a 1st, there were a bunch of 2nds (2 for Karllson, 2 for Dizingl, one for stone, another and a 3rd in the Pageau deal.

A lot of picks were pissed away on moves that made little sense for a rebuilding team
Traded a 2nd and a 3rd for a 2nd in 2019 to move up a couple spots
threw a 3rd in the trade with Leafs to get zaitsev
a second for Matt Murray signing rights
another 2nd 3rd for a 2nd to move up in 2020 to get Kleven
a 2nd to get Derek stepan ( that 2nd became josh Doan)
a 3rd for travis Hamonic
a 1st 2nd and a 3rd for debrincat
a 3rd to get rid of Murray
a 2nd and a 4th to get rid of zaitsev
a first and 2 2nds to get Chychrun
Like I said, we are were we are through a combination of Bad trades, constrictive budget, low end coaching after Murray, and average drafting,

My contention was with the claim that poor drafting is why we are bad. To call our drafting poor, you need to do more than show how we could have gotten a stud had picked this guy instead of that guy, you need to show how we compare to the other 31 teams, because poor is a relative term.
 
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BonHoonLayneCornell

Registered User
Oct 16, 2006
15,580
10,746
Yukon
The biggest problem is average drafting is not going to cut it when you have an inability to attract free agents and a brutal trading record. Average drafting also includes teams that were in their contending window and trading away their picks to contend now.

I think the biggest issue with the drafting in the Dorion era and the rebuild era is that the Sens did not do enough drafting. If you consider the Karlsson trade as the start of the rebuild then there have been 5 drafts since 2019,20,21,22,23. In those 5 drafts the Sens drafted a total of 36 players. 1 more than the std 35 (7 a year).

5 1st round picks used in those 5 years
8 2nds used
3 3rds used

They did the typical sell players for picks Karllson, Duchene, Dzingle, Stone, Pageau among others. For all the significant assests they traded away they netted 3 extra 2nd round picks and lost 2 3rds. Has there been a full on rebuilding rebuilding team that drafted less than the Sens in the 1st 5 years of the rebuild?

Where did the picks go? Karlsson Duchene and Pageau all netted a 1st, there were a bunch of 2nds (2 for Karllson, 2 for Dizingl, one for stone, another and a 3rd in the Pageau deal.

A lot of picks were pissed away on moves that made little sense for a rebuilding team
Traded a 2nd and a 3rd for a 2nd in 2019 to move up a couple spots
threw a 3rd in the trade with Leafs to get zaitsev
a second for Matt Murray signing rights
another 2nd 3rd for a 2nd to move up in 2020 to get Kleven
a 2nd to get Derek stepan ( that 2nd became josh Doan)
a 3rd for travis Hamonic
a 1st 2nd and a 3rd for debrincat
a 3rd to get rid of Murray
a 2nd and a 4th to get rid of zaitsev
a first and 2 2nds to get Chychrun
PD vs. a Potato and the Potato comes out victorious.
 
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CDN24

Registered User
Jun 17, 2009
3,549
2,894
Like I said, we are were we are through a combination of Bad trades, constrictive budget, low end coaching after Murray, and average drafting,

My contention was with the claim that poor drafting is why we are bad. To call our drafting poor, you need to do more than show how we could have gotten a stud had picked this guy instead of that guy, you need to show how we compare to the other 31 teams, because poor is a relative term.
Agreed, drafting involves a significant element of luck too and the bad trades that made it harder to be lucky by dumping so many draft picks in poor trades or trades that a rebuilding team need not make. The pore picks you retain the more chance you have of hitting on one. One or 2 extra lucky picks changes everything. You only get that luck if you still have the pick
 

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