Speculation: Early discussion about Panthers defense for 2023-24?

[TheImpatientPanther]

Who's staying?
Who's going?

We all know Zito has work to do with the defense, he will have some cap space, limited high end draft capital for next few years, how does he attack this?

Let's say you're Zito this July, let us know how you go about revamping it, whether through forward/defense swap trades, signings or other means?

I think Forsling is the easiest signing to make.
Do you dangle Montour (peaking value with cheap $ for solid production) or Ekblad (stagnating/declining value with 2 years left)?
Do you incorporate 1 or 2 graduated prospects from Charlotte onto NHL roster next year?

Click to read more...

 

[ShootIt]

Forsling is an easy re-sign especially as he'll be 27 to start next season on the last year of his deal, plus his game seems to be one that should age nicely.

Montour I wouldn't mind on a 3-4 year deal. Takes him to lower 33-34s on that deal. Think what we are seeing is legit, but guess we'll see what his agent wants.
I would keep him regardless through the 23-24 season unless it's another stinker and trade him at the TDL. If we are playoff team, hold on and potentially lose him in UFA.

Unless Ekblad equally wants out I think we just hold on to him and hope he bounces back. That NMC may kill any decent deal.

I think we'll see a trade for a tweener top 4 guy with Reinhart going at some point. At least I hope that's how we ship off Reinhart, for a proven NHL over picks.

I don't follow the AHL team but is there anyone down there that's actually NHL worthy for bottom 6 role?


Expecting a 8 year deal for Marc Staal too.

 

[vendetta]

I’m guessing gudas is gone at trade deadline for maybe a pick or prospect. Maybe staal too if they can get a late pick. Assuming they are out of race at that time

 

[KW]

Keep: Orrsling, Monty, Mahura. Not counting those so far permanently in AHL, everyone else gone at first oppo. Thank you, —TooLoyalFan

 

[16Skippy]

I know we probably won't keep Gudas but I hope we will.

Hopefully one of the decent UFAs will actually make it to free agency. Swap them with Staal and that's a big improvement already.

 

[jessebelanger]

Somehow use cap space and reinhart to get a real #1. Keep forsling, montour, mahura and ekblad.

Turf the coach.

Win cup.

 

[WaitingForThatCab]

Keep: Ekblad, Forsling, Montour, Mahura. I wouldn't mind a Gudas return if the term is short and the price is reasonable.

Ekblad is clearly on the decline, and I think it would be better to move him sooner rather than later, but his contract means he will be here next season.

 

[Dread Clawz]

It seems like both sides are open to a Gudas extension(unless we are sellers), but my guess is he wants more or equal to his current deal, and Zito will want a paycut. And he walks. Throw 5M at Gavrikov, Graves, or Mayfield in free agency. If by some miracle Orlov makes it to FA, throw 6.5-7 at him. Sign Braun or Van Riemsdyk to 1.5 for the bottom pair. Kiersted is on a 1 way next season so he most likley will be here. Fitzgerald is a scrappy kid but idk if he's full time nhl material. Good depth though.

Forsling-Ek
Gavrikov/Graves/Mayfield- Montour
Mahura- Braun/TVR
Kiersted

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Forsling
Ekblad
Montour
Mahura

Those 4 are likely here next year, not sure Zito will trade any of the top 3 so I'm wondering if Mahura gets a shot at the 2nd pairing role going into camp next year, feels the 1 yr extension is exactly that, a test to see if he can step up?

Or obviously Zito opens the cap wallet and acquires or more proven 2nd pairing guy through trade, free agency or do we dare say the waiver wire again?

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

Forsling
Ekblad
Montour
Mahura

Those 4 are likely here next year, not sure Zito will trade any of the top 3 so I'm wondering if Mahura gets a shot at the 2nd pairing role going into camp next year, feels the 1 yr extension is exactly that, a test to see if he can step up?

Or obviously Zito opens the cap wallet and acquires or more proven 2nd pairing guy through trade, free agency or do we dare say the waiver wire again?

Well, Carlson was supposed to get a shot at being a mainstay roster player but then Stall Show began. Obviously the mgmt has a more favorable view on Mahura than it has on Carl but anything can happen, and by anything I mean that the mgmt might just introduce another scrap heap guy like Jack Johnson for the next season and Mo will give him ~20mins of icetime per game effectively rendering any top4 aspirations of Mahura null and void.

Gavrikov and Graves are interesting options but they probably can ask for more term in the free agency than Zito is willing to commit to. He probably should trade Reinhart for a young but capable LD plus 1st/2nd round pick. I don't think there's enough interest for Duke so he might stick around and just let him walk to FA when his contract is up.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Well, Carlson was supposed to get a shot at being a mainstay roster player but then Stall Show began. Obviously the mgmt has a more favorable view on Mahura than it has on Carl but anything can happen, and by anything I mean that the mgmt might just introduce another scrap heap guy like Jack Johnson for the next season and Mo will give him ~20mins of icetime per game effectively rendering any top4 aspirations of Mahura null and void.

Gavrikov and Graves are interesting options but they probably can ask for more term in the free agency than Zito is willing to commit to. He probably should trade Reinhart for a young but capable LD plus 1st/2nd round pick. I don't think there's enough interest for Duke so he might stick around and just let him walk to FA when his contract is up.

Fair point on Carlsson, he's showing he wants another crack at NHL spot, he could be used as a possible add on in trade? Although I prefer he stays, the two of Carlsson and Mahura are fighting for only one spot IMO, Mahura has age on his side.

Mahura has definitely cooled off in production but him and Gudas remain one of the better duos in xGA/60, currently 8th with at least 455 mins played together.

Zito seems to know this team operates offense first and he's shown to be more focused on that area, that's why I'm curious what he does this offseason with the defense.

Mahura has 133 NHL games which isn't even 2 full seasons worth so it's not short sighted to think he just needs more experience with slight promotions here and there while remaining on 3rd pair.

I do agree on Gavrikov, Graves, Soucy etc having worry in relation to term but the same can be said with Montour.
Hoping Zito only goes 6 years or more with Forsling, I'd be more comfortable with Montour at 4-5 years, and the 3 listed above as well in that range of term which may not be realistic.

 

[TotalHomer]

Keep: Ekblad, Forsling, Montour, Mahura. I wouldn't mind a Gudas return if the term is short and the price is reasonable.

Ekblad is clearly on the decline, and I think it would be better to move him sooner rather than later, but his contract means he will be here next season.

Ekblad guaranteed to rebound next year. He's playing for a new contract at that point. Sell high.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Ekblad guaranteed to rebound next year. He's playing for a new contract at that point. Sell high.

More and more Panthers fans are leaning on selling Ekblad and signing Forsling as the true #1D.
Skating has always been an issue for Aaron and the new deal is likely to start with a $9 mil price tag.

Forsling and Montour could combine for around $12 million.
Montour may be able to provide similar offense and defense to that of Ekblad on a cheaper deal and hopefully a year or two less of term.

I think Dallas would be a good landing spot for Ekblad if Zito moves him, they need more offense from defense, it fits their Cup window of 2-3 years and they are loaded with defensive prospects.

 

[WaitingForThatCab]

Ekblad guaranteed to rebound next year. He's playing for a new contract at that point. Sell high.

Unfortunately, I completely agree with you on this one.

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

Fair point on Carlsson, he's showing he wants another crack at NHL spot, he could be used as a possible add on in trade? Although I prefer he stays, the two of Carlsson and Mahura are fighting for only one spot IMO, Mahura has age on his side.

Mahura has definitely cooled off in production but him and Gudas remain one of the better duos in xGA/60, currently 8th with at least 455 mins played together.

Zito seems to know this team operates offense first and he's shown to be more focused on that area, that's why I'm curious what he does this offseason with the defense.

Mahura has 133 NHL games which isn't even 2 full seasons worth so it's not short sighted to think he just needs more experience with slight promotions here and there while remaining on 3rd pair.

I do agree on Gavrikov, Graves, Soucy etc having worry in relation to term but the same can be said with Montour.
Hoping Zito only goes 6 years or more with Forsling, I'd be more comfortable with Montour at 4-5 years, and the 3 listed above as well in that range of term which may not be realistic.

I'm guessing that Mahura doesn't have the skills and/or stamina to become a regular top4 dman, at least with the Panthers. He performs well in that 15min TOI range but I'd reckon that as soon as you add more minutes and tougher assignments then we'll probably see him falter quite a bit. And after this this season is in the books, Zito has to make a decision on whether one of his waiver wire pick-ups can become a top4 dman or does he have sign Gavrikov or Graves to a 5 year deal. I think that he has to sign some FA.

If Mahura continues to improve then Zito could always trade him for another roster player and promote Carl (if he's still in the picture) or Ludvig into the roster.

My assumption is that Forsling is going get a full 8 year contract extension with the Panthers and Monty a 4-5 year deal.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

I'm guessing that Mahura doesn't have the skills and/or stamina to become a regular top4 dman, at least with the Panthers. He performs well in that 15min TOI range but I'd reckon that as soon as you add more minutes and tougher assignments then we'll probably see him falter quite a bit. And after this this season is in the books, Zito has to make a decision on whether one of his waiver wire pick-ups can become a top4 dman or does he have sign Gavrikov or Graves to a 5 year deal. I think that he has to.

If Mahura continues to improve then Zito could always trade him for another roster player and promote Carl (if he's still in the picture) or Ludvig into the roster.

My assumption is that Forsling is going get a full 8 year contract extension with the Panthers and Monty a 4-5 year deal.

May be gradual climb for Mahura as he's still 24? If he does have the tools to be a reliable #4, an extra minute this year and possibly 2 full mins need to be added somewhere the following year, likely more 5 on 5 so we shall see, not holding my breath as that's a big climb but would make for a nice buy low story.

Who you fancy out of Gavrikov or Graves?
Doing a quick 1 year and 3 year comparison reveals similar players with some differences. Both play a lot of PK

Graves is likely more gifted offensively but he's benefited from playing with more offensive team in NJ, he does block more shots, takes less penalties and only slightly less hits per game.

Gavrikov is more physical, plays more minutes but in the sin bin more often.
Not sure if we get into an overpaid 2nd line Gudas here but CBJ is mess this year which alters his median production.

May lean towards Graves a bit more but the stats are below.

Compare Players - Frozen Tools

Player stat comparison from dobberhockey.com

frozenpool.dobbersports.com

 

[FrolikFan67]

I wouldnt want Mahura in the top-6, he's a very stable guy on the bottom pairing (great contract btw, was expecting about 1mil so anything under I'll take it) and chance of picking up a top pairing D are incredible slim so I expect the general idea going into next season would be:

Forsling-Ekblad
???-Montour
Mahura-???

Would love Mayfield if he hits the market but he'd command too much for a bottom pairing guy. someone like a luke schenn may be an option. Nothing fancy but looking at a league minimum to 1mil earner who's more of a physical presence on the bottom pairing with mahura. would love to keep gudas but he wouldnt re-sign for that cheap.

question is what do they do on the 2nd pairing/top-4? would be nice to have a more physical style defender there as well since our existing 4 lean a little more towards the skill and puck moving side. however montour is feisty and can hold his own. overall, orlov would probably be the best addition but he'll cost too much. from a physical style defender pov, guys like gavrikov or soucy would be good additions. I dont see graves hitting the market. wonder if they go after ghost, even though he's an offensive puck mover, but they've apparently had some interest in the south florida native, so who knows

 

[Jean Luc Discard]

May be gradual climb for Mahura as he's still 24? If he does have the tools to be a reliable #4, an extra minute this year and possibly 2 full mins need to be added somewhere the following year, likely more 5 on 5 so we shall see, not holding my breath as that's a big climb but would make for a nice buy low story.

Who you fancy out of Gavrikov or Graves?
Doing a quick 1 year and 3 year comparison reveals similar players with some differences. Both play a lot of PK

Graves is likely more gifted offensively but he's benefited from playing with more offensive team in NJ, he does block more shots, takes less penalties and only slightly less hits per game.

Gavrikov is more physical, plays more minutes but in the sin bin more often.
Not sure if we get into an overpaid 2nd line Gudas here but CBJ is mess this year which alters his median production.

May lean towards Graves a bit more but the stats are below.

Compare Players - Frozen Tools

Player stat comparison from dobberhockey.com

frozenpool.dobbersports.com

Mahura can still develop his game but it's just that his runway with the Panthers may run out, kinda like it's been with Carl. And Mo certainly doesn't help younger dudes to develop when he thinks that the best course of action is keep playing MStaal ~20mins per game or keeping guys like Hepo and Deni playing on the 4th line with EStaal. Even Q who was known to be very tough on the rookies still allowed them to have more TOI when they've shown improvement in their game. Maurice is just a mess in this regard. We would've seen Mahura getting more TOI if it was Q behind the bench and therefore I can vaguely see where this script is going.

It could be either one of them. I'd take Graves but Zito might end up getting Gav. I'd reckon that it boils down to financials instead of looking at specific attributes or fancy stats.