Series Talk: ECQF: Boston Bruins vs Toronto Maple Leafs (Series Tied 3-3)

[RiverbottomChuck]

What's with the scheduling of this series? For the second time in a row there are two days off between games.

Yeah kinda a crazy, I’d rather they just play. Meanwhile Florida doesn’t get a break unless it goes to 7 right?

 

[danpantz]

What's with the scheduling of this series? For the second time in a row there are two days off between games.

Gotta make sure Toronto plays on Saturday nights

 

[Transplanted Caper]

Thought last night was right up there with Game 7 in 2021 against Montreal or Game 7 against Boston in 2018. Yes, credit to Boston for how well they played, but the Leafs looked like they had pulled the chute for the first two periods. I have zero confidence in them figuring anything out on Tuesday and this will be over. You can't be this poor on fundamentals and expect to bounce back. Keefe should be fired the second the horn goes. It's not all on him, but he's consistently outcoached and the special teams are a mess. The roster is a more complicated question because Marner and Tavares have NMCs, so you can fantasy book your way out of it all you want, but they're in control. Top needs are people who can consistently move the puck on the blueline (only Rielly can). Yes, toughness and grit is great and needed, but being able to absorb the hit behind the night better or blocking shots doesn't mean all that much if you're pinned down and can't get the puck out of your end. They need another Top 6 centre as well. I expect you're going to have to shelter Tavares fairly heavily next year and none of Holmberg, Kampf, or even a re-signed Domi can fill that kind of void. In nets, find a decent tandem guy to play with Woll and hope for the best. That's what 20+ teams in the league have to do, and I'd be hesitant to go all-in on someone like Markstrom (and he may not even want to come here) and thinking you're measurably better in your most pronounced areas of weakness.

 

[PeE eL DuBoiS]

For all the talk about Marner being the bad guy right now he has more playoff points compared to Matthews. Both played 54 games, Marner 49 points, Matthews 47. The way people are talking about him it is as if he has 10 career points or something. Fact is the entire core sucks. Every player has had glimpses over the years but all have faded and become invisible. And that's an inevitable fact at this point.

Completely off topic but McDavid has played 52 playoff games and has a ridiculous 84 points. Now that's a player where you don't question his compete and heart.

Not defending Matthews, but it's worth pointing out Marner gets a lot of garbage time points. Like when the game is already lost and the opponent has taken their foot off the gas (last night) or when the Leafs are already winning a playoff game by multiple goals.

 

[thaman8765678]

Lol just watched Roman Josi take a shot to the ear and bleeding everywhere. Back on the ice in 30 seconds.

Meanwhile Austin Matthew's sits out of a playoff game with a tummy ache.

This is why the Leafs will never do anything in playoffs. Their players can not man up.

 

[Hockey Outsider]

Quoting myself from two years ago:

Here's a visual summary of the top five contracts per team, by position, from 2022*:

View attachment 578380

Among its top five contracts**, Toronto has allocated just over $40.5M to (four) forwards, and $7.5M to (one) defenseman. The Leafs have, by a wide margin, the most dollars invested in their top forwards. Toronto is 26% ahead of the next closest team (the Capitals). Washington, although they have the 2nd highest allocation, is closer to 17th place, than they are to the Leafs. This shows how unconventional the Leafs' cap management has been.

There are eight teams in the NHL (including Toronto) that have invested $8.0M or less in defensemen and goalies (among their top five contracts). Those teams have won a grand total of 5 playoff series over the past four years. Allocating such a small amount to goalies/defensemen hasn't proven to be a winning formula in recent years.

The Leafs are one of 14 teams that haven't won any playoff series in the past four years (this includes Seattle). The Leafs have by far the most invested in their top forwards (just over $40.5M). Washington is the next closest team (at $32.3M) - and at least they won a Stanley Cup with that core (five years ago). No other team with zero playoff series wins since 2019 has more than about $29M invested in their forwards (among their top five contracts).

The top four Leaf forwards have scored 82 points in 98 playoff games (a pace of 69 points per 82 games). That's unacceptable for such a high cap hit. The Leafs have allocated a substantial amount in their top four forwards, they haven't delivered in April, and the lack of cap room makes it difficult to add depth.

All that being said - it's too early to tell if Dubas's tenure will be successful. If the Leafs win the Stanley Cup, or at least make a couple of deep playoff runs, all will be forgiven***. We'll look back on his tenure, and talk about his bold, unconventional approach. But until the regular season success translates into the spring, we have no choice but to conclude that Dubas (who has actually been quite good at trading and drafting) has badly mismanaged the salary cap, which has been the root cause of the Leafs' inability to win a playoff round.

====

* All data has been taken from www.spotrac.com. I'm assuming their data is complete and accurate.

** I'm focusing on the top five contracts, since the Leafs have so much money tied up in Matthews, Tavares, Marner, Rielly, and Nylander. But even if we look at the entire roster, the conclusion doesn't change. The Leafs still had the highest cap hit allocated to their forwards in 2022 ($53.1M).

*** To be clear, this is certainly possible. The Leafs have been one of the best regular season teams over the past few years, and if Matthews plays Conn Smythe calibre hockey for two months, or one of the goalies goes on a hot streak, he could become one of the biggest heroes in the city's history. But results in the playoffs, not potential, nor regular season standings, are what really matter for a team that hasn't won the Stanley Cup since prior to man first walking on the moon.

From a salary cap perspective, no other team in the NHL has allocated such a high percentage of their budget to their star forwards. No other team is even close.

Had the Leafs been successful, Dubas would've been hailed as a genius for winning with an unconventional approach. The problem is - because so much of the Leafs' cap has been allocated to their top four forwards, if they're not producing (due to injuries, lack of heart, or simply bad luck) - the team isn't going to win. Toronto's cap allocation decisions haven't left them with enough money to get the type of depth that a typical Stanley Cup contender has.

This series isn't over yet. But if the Leafs lose, there will be plenty of blame to go around. And although each of Matthews, Marner and Tavares have been disappointing over the past 6+ years - and make no mistake, they haven't come close to earning their salary based on playoff performance - they don't control how the team was designed. I would blame Dubas's mismanagement of the salary cap as the single biggest reason for the Leafs' playoff failures. Treliving inherited a mess, and it's not clear if he's willing to (or even allowed to) make some badly-needed big changes.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Only if he would’ve came out in the third and scored.

“I owe it all to Pepto “

Instead of "crushed it" like in his ubereats commercial it would be "flushed it"

 

[Hockey Outsider]

One more point to add. It's ironic that the Leafs are losing this series largely because of special teams. For several years now, I've seen a good number of Leafs fans (on HFBoards and elsewhere) smugly talk about the importance of ES and/or 5v5 scoring, and downplay the importance of man advantage situations. (I'm sure this is because Matthews is one of the greatest ES goal-scorers of all-time - his fans have adapted a framework that emphasizes what their star player does well, and downplays what he's less successful at). I've lost count of the numbers of times McDavid, Kucherov and others are denigrated as "powerplay merchants", because they readily cash in on those opportunities.

Over the past six years (ie the Tavares era), the Leafs have scored 109 GF vs 121 GA at 5v5 (and 3-1 at 4v4) in the playoffs. That's not great, but not terrible. Meanwhile, among teams with at least 30 playoff games, the Leafs are 3rd last (out of thirteen teams) in penalty killing percentage (75.2%). And they're 2nd last in powerplay percentage (16.7%).

Maybe this should cause fans to revisit their "powerplay merchant" type comments. Toronto's repeated failures in the playoffs are a pretty good indication of the importance of a strong PP and/or PK.

 

[T REX]

The Leafs are the best in the league at making goalies look like world beaters and giving their opponents confidence

Nothing wrong with swayman, but the leafs aren’t at all making him work for it, they’re handing this over

Can you explain his regular season stats vs Toronto to postseason? I mean, to be brutally honest...he's playing the same way he did during the season. This would have been a sweep had Boston's coach not been a moron.

Sweep. That's pure domination. You can dress it up however you want but the facts are pretty straightforward.

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

Did I say that? I said he has given no reason he would turn it down if offered.

Now, its your turn to prove a negative. You said he wouldn't come to Toronto if offered the job.

Do you have any proof or not? If you do post it already or move on.

No I never said that, I asked why would he want to coach Toronto? Other than a high salary, it seems like a pretty shitty spot to coach.

 

[POVERTY]

Coaching won't do it for this Leafs core. What we need is a hypnotist who can convince them that these are meaningless November games.

 

[Michel Beauchamp]

23.9% of the voters are wrong so far.

 

[Strangle]

Can you explain his regular season stats vs Toronto to postseason? I mean, to be brutally honest...he's playing the same way he did during the season. This would have been a sweep had Boston's coach not been a moron.

Sweep. That's pure domination. You can dress it up however you want but the facts are pretty straightforward.

Watch the games, dude

Don’t just look at the stats

It's pathetic that the perennial joy derived by Leafs fans is relegated to being better than OTT and MTL all the while talking up the Leafs in social media and the TOR media as being Cup favorites all season long when everyone knows that in the playoffs they'll fold like a cheap tent. I'd much rather give kudos the OTT and MTL who play at their talent level than a bunch of overpaid prima donnas, the deluded TOR media and the pompous, holier than thou Leafs' fans who've won nothing since Sgt. Pepper was released.

What are you talking about? Other fanbases like ott and mon are obsessed with US lmfao

It’s not the other way around. We don’t think about their teams at all. You don’t find a gaggle of Toronto fans in Habs or sens series threads taking shit about their teams. That only happens in Toronto threads

 

[thaman8765678]

Coaching won't do it for this Leafs core. What we need is a hypnotist who can convince them that these are meaningless November games.

I mean, the other teams all play much harder than in November.

This core just doesn't have an extra gear. All they care about is meaningless regular season stats.

 

[goldenblack]

Could AM34 not have put a diaper on and come out blazing in the third?

It's my understanding he's been wearing one all series

 

[Transplanted Caper]

I get it's gamesmanship and won't change until the league mandates more transparency, but in terms of appeasing the masses, Treliving and Keefe's radio silence on injuries have only buried them further. Vague rumours about migraines for Nylander, Matthews is sick, who knows where Mitch's ankle is. None of this is an excuse, there are definitely banged-up Bruins, too, but it hasn't helped fans are forced to suss out or presume what's going on with these guys,

 

[toddkaz]

No I never said that, I asked why would he want to coach Toronto? Other than a high salary, it seems like a pretty shitty spot to coach.

Cause its his job.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Not sure if the Leafs players even bother listening to Keefe knowing he's not the coach to overcome a 3-1 series defecit and Keefes days are numbered right now. May as well pack your bags boy.

I get it's gamesmanship and won't change until the league mandates more transparency, but in terms of appeasing the masses, Treliving and Keefe's radio silence on injuries have only buried them further. Vague rumours about migraines for Nylander, Matthews is sick, who knows where Mitch's ankle is. None of this is an excuse, there are definitely banged-up Bruins, too, but it hasn't helped fans are forced to suss out or presume what's going on with these guys,

As an ongoing migraine sufferers here, there is treatment for migraines and they work within minutes. I find it hard how a professional hockey player doesn't have access to top doctors within minutes.

 

[BaconNater]

Big time credit to Matthews for being smart and giving himself the illness excuse for when people ask questions why he saves his best for the regular season and not da playoffs

 

[WetcoastOrca]

This one’s over in 5. Watching last night Toronto was never even in that close to must win game. That was gut check time. Boston closes it out fairly easily on home ice and the off season analysis can start on the Toronto networks. I’m guessing Marner, Keefe and Samsonov bear the brunt of the media blame and the other guys get a pass.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Quoting myself from two years ago:

From a salary cap perspective, no other team in the NHL has allocated such a high percentage of their budget to their star forwards. No other team is even close.

Had the Leafs been successful, Dubas would've been hailed as a genius for winning with an unconventional approach. The problem is - because so much of the Leafs' cap has been allocated to their top four forwards, if they're not producing (due to injuries, lack of heart, or simply bad luck) - the team isn't going to win. Toronto's cap allocation decisions haven't left them with enough money to get the type of depth that a typical Stanley Cup contender has.

This series isn't over yet. But if the Leafs lose, there will be plenty of blame to go around. And although each of Matthews, Marner and Tavares have been disappointing over the past 6+ years - and make no mistake, they haven't come close to earning their salary based on playoff performance - they don't control how the team was designed. I would blame Dubas's mismanagement of the salary cap as the single biggest reason for the Leafs' playoff failures. Treliving inherited a mess, and it's not clear if he's willing to (or even allowed to) make some badly-needed big changes.

I mentioned this before but there are a couple of things to consider here.

In theory, Dubas may not have been wrong in his philosophy. Four big scorers should be enough to help you win a cup - but - that actually have to produce.

Tavares seemed like a good idea. But he got hurt and was never the same again. Marner turned out to be a playoff dud and Matthews hasn’t been able to elevate his play. Only Nylander has consistently shown up.

I don’t think you can predict that. Hindsight is 20/20 and now it’s so obvious but you’d have thought these guys would evolve and learn as others have and it just hasn’t happened.

Another issue is that they’re all the same kind of player. None are a Tkachuk type power forward with a different dimension.

If you invest all your eggs into scorers, they’d better show up. And they haven’t done it in seven years.

 

[Sheppy]

What's with the scheduling of this series? For the second time in a row there are two days off between games.

Gotta cater to the Leafs on Saturday nights.

 

[WetcoastOrca]

I mentioned this before but there are a couple of things to consider here.

In theory, Dubas may not have been wrong in his philosophy. Four big scorers should be enough to help you win a cup - but - that actually have to produce.

Tavares seemed like a good idea. But he got hurt and was never the same again. Marner turned out to be a playoff dud and Matthews hasn’t been able to elevate his play. Only Nylander has consistently shown up.

I don’t think you can predict that. Hindsight is 20/20 and now it’s so obvious but you’d have thought these guys would evolve and learn as others have and it just hasn’t happened.

Another issue is that they’re all the same kind of player. None are a Tkachuk type power forward with a different dimension.

If you invest all your eggs into scorers, they’d better show up. And they haven’t done it in seven years.

The biggest problem is that there’s never been a successful team that has invested half its cap in 4 forwards. Signing Tavares meant that one of the 4 needed to be moved out for a top D.
Many of us pointed that out at the time of the Tavares signing. Colorado has Makar on D as part of its core. Tampa has Hedman on D and Vasi in net.
It might not have been possible to predict Tavares’ decline but having your top 4 paid players as forwards is a model that has never worked.
Dubas’ arrogant ‘we can and we will’ response when asked about this showed just how out to lunch he was.
The cap structure issue should have been fixed years ago. Unfortunately now with everyone having a NMC it’s going to be pennies on the dollar in return.

 

[Transplanted Caper]

As an ongoing migraine sufferers here, there is treatment for migraines and they work within minutes. I find it hard how a professional hockey player doesn't have access to top doctors within minutes.

I suspect each person is different on this front, and at any rate, this kind of speculation - which is on the obfuscators, not the speculators - is the problem. Nylander rarely, if ever, misses time. It's unfair to him to have the team leaving him hanging on this.

 

[T REX]

Watch the games, dude

Don’t just look at the stats



What are you talking about? Other fanbases like ott and mon are obsessed with US lmfao

It’s not the other way around. We don’t think about their teams at all. You don’t find a gaggle of Toronto fans in Habs or sens series threads taking shit about their teams. That only happens in Toronto threads

I've watched all your games. I'm a hockey nut. Sway owns the leafs