Historical relevance of Kucherov and MacKinnon's 2024 season?

WarriorofTime

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Did you not read my post? A HEALTHY Mario, in his prime, was unbeatable.
So what is the STANDARD to say how many Art Rosses McDavid (or someone else) needs to win to be “unbeatable” like this hypothetical not based in reality healthy, no Gretzky, “unbeatable” Lemieux? 20?
 
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bobholly39

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So what is the STANDARD to say how many Art Rosses McDavid (or someone else) needs to win to be “unbeatable” like this hypothetical not based in reality healthy, no Gretzky, “unbeatable” Lemieux? 20?

Not sure what you're even arguing about.

If healthy - during his prime - absolutely no one in hockey history beats Gretzky to a Ross. Except maybe Lemieux. Unbeatable

If healthy - during his prime - absolutely no one in hockey history beats Lemieux to a Ross. Except maybe Gretzky. Unbeatable

That's it. Just those 2.
 

WarriorofTime

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Not sure what you're even arguing about.

If healthy - during his prime - absolutely no one in hockey history beats Gretzky to a Ross. Except maybe Lemieux. Unbeatable

If healthy - during his prime - absolutely no one in hockey history beats Lemieux to a Ross. Except maybe Gretzky. Unbeatable

That's it. Just those 2.
So nobody could beat Gretzky except one of his contemporaries and nobody could beat Lemieux except his back problems? Put another way, unbeatable except when they got beat. Let’s just skip the hyperbole and look at awards won and not make up arbitrary categories. It’s not like these guys can’t stand on their own merit looking at that.
 

bobholly39

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To answer OP - i think it'll take a couple more years to see how things unfold across the league to allow us to better place these seasons historically. A bit like it took some extra time to properly assess McDavid 2021's season.

Right now - I think all of Kuch, Mack and McDavid are having better seasons than Kucherov in 2018-2019 - and i have that one as a top 5 (maybe even top 2-3) season post lockout (prior to McDavid 2021 at least).
 
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MadLuke

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If healthy - during his prime - absolutely no one in hockey history beats Gretzky to a Ross. Except maybe Lemieux. Unbeatable

If healthy - during his prime - absolutely no one in hockey history beats Lemieux to a Ross. Except maybe Gretzky. Unbeatable

That's it. Just those 2.
And arguably no need to be that healthy, how many time they would have beat everyone else playing 60....

In 1989 Mario had 162 pts by games 60, in 93 obviously, Gretzky after 51 games, Gretzky had 176 after just 64 games in 1982.

So nobody could beat Gretzky except one of his contemporaries and nobody could beat Lemieux except his back problems? Put another way, unbeatable except when they got beat.
Yes you understood the point made, prime Lemieux never loss the Art Ross in a season he played 60 or more games, Gretzky was first in points in the nhl outside Lemieux every season from 1980 to summer of 1991 when he got Sutered.

You can disagree with the statement (saying Espo with Orr, peak McDavid, peak Jagr could have beat them a year they play 75 healthy), but it is not a nothing statement.
 
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wetcoast

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Yzerman 89 or Sakic 01 come to mind. That they're both doing it is historically unusual. But they're clearly peak seasons in a very impressive manner.

For Vs5, this season's Kucherov is below Kucherov 2019. As of today, Vs5 over 1.20 in the last 10 seasons

McDavid 21 - 1.59
McDavid 23 - 1.38
Kane 16 - 1.29
Kucherov 19 - 1.28
Draisaitl 21 - 1.27
Kucherov 24 - 1.25
MacKinnon 24 - 1.23

Now, 5 will float a bit. With everyone being healthy and playing well maybe Vs10 is better. Same time frame, 1.25 or higher

McDavid 21 - 1.69
McDavid 23 - 1.50
Draisaitl 20 - 1.41
Kucherov 24 - 1.40
Kane 16 - 1.38
MacKinnon 24 - 1.37
Draisaitl 21 - 1.35
McDavid 17 - 1.33
Kucherov 19 - 1.33
McDavid 24 - 1.33
McDavid 22 - 1.27
Draisaitl 23 - 1.25

Really, any way you stretch it all three are having very impressive seasons that would be Hart worthy in a normal season.

They're all also very clearly behind McDavid 23 and McDavid 21. McDavid 21 is, to me, the season you can point to as a true Big Four esque domination. McDavid 23 is more of a best non-Big Four season.
Thanks, great post and I think the key to these 2 guys historically is that they are having Hart worthy seasons and that guy in Toronto is doing something special too.

McDavid is having a great season as well after playing through some adversity and an injury and no doubt some detractors will try to overemphasize his "down" year but he is also tracking extremely well historically.
 

MadLuke

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It goes always a bit both ways, but McDavid human start and the Oilers team result.

First 16 games of the season
McDavid 13 pts in 14 games, 2 missed games
Oilers: 5W-10L-1T, GF:47, GA: 61, just under 3 goals a game

Since McDavid scored almost at a 2 ppg pace
McDavid: 27 goals, 90 assist, 117 pts, +38 in 60 games
Oilers: 42-14-4, GF: 227, GA: 157, 3.78 goals a game
Best record in the league during that time, .733 of the points

Hart story line is easy to write even if it is unfair, to the other that did had a bad stretch to prove how better they make their teams when they play at their maximum potential.
 

TheStatican

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I’m not saying Gretzky or Lemieux stink or wouldn’t win trophies in present day. But we are talking about McDavid, he is winning trophies in present day as well. Many in fact. This is more about notions of “unbeatable” and what that means. It’s odd to put Lemieux in an “unbeatable” category when he only ended with one more Art Ross than McDavid has now. Sure injuries are a big reason but injuries are a monster part as well of what makes someone “beatable” or not.
No offense, but I find 'trophy counting' to be the laziest approach to player evaluation, as it oversimplifies the intricate dynamics underlying the process. Those who adhere to the trophy count paradigm are essentially suggesting that a player's worth can largely be determined by the number of trophies they've accumulated. At its base, it suggests, for example, that we should view a player who has 4 major trophies as being greater than another who has only 3. This argument can easily be proven false - Sergei Fedorov has 4 major trophies, while players like Joe Sakic and Marcel Dionne have only 3. Should we not then conclude that Fedorov is superior to Sakic and Dionne? Yet I'm unaware of anyone who actually holds such views. Even more substantially, Phil Esposito won 9 trophies, but in actuality when counting goal-scoring titles, his trophy count is a whopping 15! Which is substantially more than Crosby who has won 11. Shouldn't we rank him as being a greater player than Crosby? Obviously the answer to that is no.

Trophy counts fail to account for the myriad contextual variables needed to make accurate comparisons between players. It overlooks absolutely essential considerations such as;
- the competitive landscape
- consideration for injuries
- the significance of longevity

Trophy counts by their nature presume that the level of competition remains equal across all seasons and all eras, which of course is an erroneous conclusion. The evolution of the sport, changes in rules, shifts in demographics and the overall league-wide talent level, all contribute to variations in competitiveness over individual seasons and eras. It's essential to acknowledge these contextual differences and understand that achievements in one season does not directly translate to another. I'm sure you're aware of all the above, but by continuing to place excessive value on simple trophy counts you are failing to make the required considerations.

While injuries can undoubtedly impact a player's overall legacy by interrupting their career trajectory and diminishing their accumulated raw totals, they do not erase a player's capabilities - And that is how I personally rank players. Injuries are an unfortunate part of sports, and even the greatest athletes can fall victim to them. However, it's crucial to recognize that a player's skill, talent, and impact on the game extend beyond their injury record. Therefore, while injuries may affect a player's career arc, they should not be used to discount their abilities, which is precisely what you are doing.

Longevity and the lack of trophy counting's recognition of it speaks for itself.

So while trophies can indeed serve as tangible markers of success, relying primarily on it yields an incomplete and misleading assessment of a player's true prowess. This methodology often disregards the intrinsic quality and depth of a player's accomplishments in individual seasons. And does not paint a complete picture of a player's true capabilities. It's essential to consider the quality, impact, and deeper context behind achievements rather than just the quantity of trophies collected.
 

WarriorofTime

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And arguably no need to be that healthy, how many time they would have beat everyone else playing 60....

In 1989 Mario had 162 pts by games 60, in 93 obviously, Gretzky after 51 games, Gretzky had 176 after just 64 games in 1982.


Yes you understood the point made, prime Lemieux never loss the Art Ross in a season he played 60 or more games, Gretzky was first in points in the nhl outside Lemieux every season from 1980 to summer of 1991 when he got Sutered.

You can disagree with the statement (saying Espo with Orr, peak McDavid, peak Jagr could have beat them a year they play 75 healthy), but it is not a nothing statement.
Where it becomes a “nothing” statement is where hyperbolic or deification type language starts getting used. Consider the best way to explain to someone that is not familiar with nhl hockey, any players or the league’s history.

You’d say for a period of 17 years, the league’s scoring leader was overwhelmingly dominated by two players that are considered amongst the all time greatest players in the history of the sport. The first was Wayne Gretzky, almost unanimously considered the best player ever. He won the scoring race eight seasons in a row, often by laughably wide margins. He finished second to Lemieux back to back years, won two more and then added two more back to back and got his final one a couple years later. That gives him by far the most scoring totals ever. The second is Mario Lemieux, who is a bit younger and who most consider to be almost at Gretzky’s level, with the difference being a more injuries. He was able to best Gretzky a couple of times once he hit his prime while Gretzky was still considered in his. After injuries, he also won a couple more and then some more injuries and won two more for a total of six, which were in total won over a span of ten years. Injuries kept his career short from getting potentially more. In total, 1994-95 is the only season between 1980-81 and 1996-97 in which someone other Gretzky or Lemieux won the scoring title.

There’s plenty of discussion to be had without using words like “unbeatable” or naturally assuming like McDavid could never possibly best them in any given season ever if they were contemporaries because they weren’t “beat” and McDavid was “beat” by a non-mythological creature (even though those guys are having total monster seasons and McDavid himself isn’t 100% this season). Once we stop talking about players as real humans, then there’s not much discussion to be had because the discussion has already been presumed when we start caveating out the Demi-Gods.
 

WarriorofTime

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Jul 3, 2010
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No offense, but I find 'trophy counting' to be the laziest approach to player evaluation, as it oversimplifies the intricate dynamics underlying the process. Those who adhere to the trophy count paradigm are essentially suggesting that a player's worth can largely be determined by the number of trophies they've accumulated. At its base, it suggests, for example, that we should view a player who has 4 major trophies as being greater than another who has only 3. This argument can easily be proven false - Sergei Fedorov has 4 major trophies, while players like Joe Sakic and Marcel Dionne have only 3. Should we not then conclude that Fedorov is superior to Sakic and Dionne? Yet I'm unaware of anyone who actually holds such views. Even more substantially, Phil Esposito won 9 trophies, but in actuality when counting goal-scoring titles, his trophy count is a whopping 15! Which is substantially more than Crosby who has won 11. Shouldn't we rank him as being a greater player than Crosby? Obviously the answer to that is no.

Trophy counts fail to account for the myriad contextual variables needed to make accurate comparisons between players. It overlooks absolutely essential considerations such as;
- the competitive landscape
- consideration for injuries
- the significance of longevity

Trophy counts by their nature presume that the level of competition remains equal across all seasons and all eras, which of course is an erroneous conclusion. The evolution of the sport, changes in rules, shifts in demographics and the overall league-wide talent level, all contribute to variations in competitiveness over individual seasons and eras. It's essential to acknowledge these contextual differences and understand that achievements in one season does not directly translate to another. I'm sure you're aware of all the above, but by continuing to place excessive value on simple trophy counts you are failing to make the required considerations.

While injuries can undoubtedly impact a player's overall legacy by interrupting their career trajectory and diminishing their accumulated raw totals, they do not erase a player's capabilities - And that is how I personally rank players. Injuries are an unfortunate part of sports, and even the greatest athletes can fall victim to them. However, it's crucial to recognize that a player's skill, talent, and impact on the game extend beyond their injury record. Therefore, while injuries may affect a player's career arc, they should not be used to discount their abilities, which is precisely what you are doing.

Longevity and the lack of trophy counting's recognition of it speaks for itself.

So while trophies can indeed serve as tangible markers of success, relying primarily on it yields an incomplete and misleading assessment of a player's true prowess. This methodology often disregards the intrinsic quality and depth of a player's accomplishments in individual seasons. And does not paint a complete picture of a player's true capabilities. It's essential to consider the quality, impact, and deeper context behind achievements rather than just the quantity of trophies collected.
This is a bit ironic though because my entrance was specifically calling out a very lazy analysis that relies on a lot of reductive reasoning that goes something like, roughly paraphrasing, “Lemieux could only be bested by Gretzky or injuries, therefore McDavid getting bested by Kucherov and MacKinnon means he cannot be at Lemieux’s level.”


It gets taken even further where we start hypothetically saying maybe Jagr or Crosby would best him and they hypothetically could never best “healthy” Lemieux (this one is a bit odd as Jagr was quite a bit younger than Lemieux and Jagr has his own 4 year streak which all occurred after Lemieux’s last so now we’re playing double fast and loose here).

What is lacking is any “intrinsic quality” or the “depth” of a player’s accomplishment. It is simply deciding a thing without analysis and deciding no player can ever reach because of an impossible and vaguely defined category because the group in that category has already been closed off to just the players in the category that was just created. It’s an endless circular loop.

Now if you want to look more closely at skill, talent and impact on the game (not sure why injury didn’t factor into the impact category, but everyone has their opinions). That’s fine. Accomplishments often play a big role across era because skills/abilities generally slowly improve over time which isn’t necessarily fair for older generations that didn’t have the same advantages in those areas.
 

WarriorofTime

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With only a few games left, there is a good chance they both beat McDavid for the Art Ross and even if they don't, it doesn't change they both have put up statistically dominant seasons that are very close to what McDavid did the season before; a season that brought "Big 5?" and "better than peak Howe?" questions to the forefront.

McDavid's 22/23 season was arguably the best season since Wayne/Mario. In terms of level of play and % domination over the Top 10/25/50 scorers, it was not statistically close on Mario/Wayne level, it was on peak Jagr/Crosby level and was closer to Yzerman's 88/89 season.

Kucherov and MacKinnon are putting up "Best of the non Big 4" level seasons and going toe-to-toe with McDavid. What do we make of these seasons by players that are generally considered in the Top 30-50 range level of talent?

Are they an "Yzerman" anomaly season? Does this temper talk of Big 5 given Yzerman wasn't close to Mario that year?
Kucherov and MacKinnon are both having top 25 all time seasons. Higher once you factor out anything pre-World War II. So this season doesn’t accomplish anything as far as being a means to neg McDavid other than showing he is in a very competitive era as far as scoring competition. This isn’t Jamie Benn or Dale Hawerchuk.
 

daver

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Kucherov and MacKinnon are both having top 25 all time seasons. Higher once you factor out anything pre-World War II. So this season doesn’t accomplish anything as far as being a means to neg McDavid other than showing he is in a very competitive era as far as scoring competition. This isn’t Jamie Benn or Dale Hawerchuk.

As measured by?
 

WarriorofTime

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As measured by?
Stats, era-adjusted scoring, and as supported by eye test. They are completely dominating their teams in scoring which aren’t even filled with slouches. I’d like to hear your case against it. The only thing you can say is three guys doing it at once is a bit unlikely and scoring is up, but that’s never stopped Gretzky/Lemieux analysis. Sometimes things just converge like that.
 

jigglysquishy

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Stats, era-adjusted scoring, and as supported by eye test. They are completely dominating their teams in scoring which aren’t even filled with slouches. I’d like to hear your case against it. The only thing you can say is three guys doing it at once is a bit unlikely and scoring is up, but that’s never stopped Gretzky/Lemieux analysis. Sometimes things just converge like that.
Source?

Or are we going to keep using the anti intellectual HockeyRef adjusted stats drivel?

Why take out pre WW II players?
 

WarriorofTime

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Source?

Or are we going to keep using the anti intellectual HockeyRef adjusted stats drivel?

Why take out pre WW II players?
What is your case against it? What makes these seasons not historic?

I don’t care about pre WWII it’s just a long time ago and harder to apples to apples.

Hockey Reference adjusted scoring is great for anything post-expansion fyi.
 

WarriorofTime

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How many "all time seasons" have you sufficiently sampled since 1945? This could potentially be groundbreaking work...
No need to be sarcastic. I’ve been watching my whole life. These seasons don’t come by too often. What is your issue with calling Kucherov and MacKinnon’s seasons historic? Even just unadjusted Kucherov for instance is 27th highest season ever and 3rd outside of a 16-year bubble.
 

Michael Farkas

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No need to be sarcastic. I’ve been watching my whole life. These seasons don’t come by too often. What is your issue with calling Kucherov and MacKinnon’s seasons historic?
It's not sarcasm. It's of immediate interest to me if someone that has even a moderate clue about what's happening on the ice has put together any sort of large scale talent evaluation. It's the most important thing that can happen at this point...all the stats have long been revealed, not all of them have been tested.
 
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WarriorofTime

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It's not sarcasm. It's of immediate interest to me if someone that has even a moderate clue about what's happening on the ice has put together any sort of large scale talent evaluation. It's the most important thing that can happen at this point...all the stats have long been revealed, not all of them have been tested.
No idea what you’re asking me. Dunno why you’re challenging “eye test says it’s historic” or what checkmate you’re going for here.
 

jigglysquishy

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What is your case against it? What makes these seasons not historic?

I don’t care about pre WWII it’s just a long time ago and harder to apples to apples.

Hockey Reference adjusted scoring is great for anything post-expansion fyi.
The Stanley Cup is 130 years old. Ignoring pre WW II is ignoring 40% of hockey history.

The NHL is 113 years old. HockeyRef is functionally useless for 50% of NHL history. I still think the adjustment method itself is broken for the 70s and doesn't start to pass the eye test until post lockout.

I'm wholly unconvinced that GPG/GPG is a worthwhile method. It's popular because it's as easy as it comes. But it misses the nuance of season to season.

The GPG this year is technically lower than last year. But scoring amongst the top 3/5/10/25 players is higher. There's too much nuance lost in GPG/GPG.

Top 25 season of all time is a really high bar. The Big Four alone would constitute the top 20 seasons. Do we really think Kucherov and MacKinnon are simultaneously having a top 5 non Big Four season the year after McDavid had one?

They're all having a great season. But top 25 all time is such a ridiculously high bar in 130 years of hockey.
 

WarriorofTime

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I know it's the internet...but I'm not going for a "checkmate" here. Plus, one can only "go for a checkmate" if the opponent is sufficiently vulnerable. Which I'm hoping is not the case here...
Then I genuinely don’t know what you’re asking. How many seasons have I been around?
 

WarriorofTime

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The Stanley Cup is 130 years old. Ignoring pre WW II is ignoring 40% of hockey history.

The NHL is 113 years old. HockeyRef is functionally useless for 50% of NHL history. I still think the adjustment method itself is broken for the 70s and doesn't start to pass the eye test until post lockout.

I'm wholly unconvinced that GPG/GPG is a worthwhile method. It's popular because it's as easy as it comes. But it misses the nuance of season to season.

The GPG this year is technically lower than last year. But scoring amongst the top 3/5/10/25 players is higher. There's too much nuance lost in GPG/GPG.

Top 25 season of all time is a really high bar. The Big Four alone would constitute the top 20 seasons. Do we really think Kucherov and MacKinnon are simultaneously having a top 5 non Big Four season the year after McDavid had one?

They're all having a great season. But top 25 all time is such a ridiculously high bar in 130 years of hockey.
But even just unadjusted they are 27th and 33rd all time with games left. Just looking at their seasons and not the whole “well they are no demigods so no way can they have a season of that caliber..” I don’t really see why they aren’t there.
 
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Michael Farkas

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Then I genuinely don’t know what you’re asking. How many seasons have I been around?
You have applied the eye test to determine - with some degree of confidence - a shortlist (I'm assuming not a complete and through ranking, which is fine - that would be incredibly difficult) of the top 25 (or more?) seasons since 1945. I'd like to know more about this process and what was determined.
 
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Michael Farkas

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Of perhaps no interest at all...at a glance/quickly compiled in good faith...

1,230 seasons of garnered a Hart vote to date. 114 up to 1945, 1,116 since. We'll likely add 10 to 15 to that list this year I suppose.
 

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