The 11m is a valid difference, does make it harder to fit in. That being said
- none were traded with as little cash owed as Marner (potentially could be)
- there's no guarantee Marner's full cap hit for next season will be included
- none of the players were top 10 in points and points per game over the last 5 seasons with 2 1st team allstar nods.
The stretches to include were the deadline deals, that's why I starred them.
As to the RFA/UFA distinction and the NMC- it's functionally noise, IF he's willing to extend with a given team. All of those deals were shaped by the players desires on where to play, and the returns were contingent on them extending. No extension- those trades don't happen. The only functional difference comes in on the alternative course of action.
If Marner won't extend/ won't waive, only one thing happens- he plays out the last year of his deal then becomes a UFA. If Dubois/Debrincat/Tkachuk wouldn't extend and sewered the deals, the right holding teams could either
- get a one year deal done (either via negotiation or arbitration), let them play out the last year of their deal and then become UFA (functionally the same as Marner)
- get the one year deal done, and trade them for a much lesser return as a pure rental (the only added value to their RFA/no trade protection status)
You have hit the nail squarely on the head here...
The only appreciable differnce between a guy 1 year away from UFA (i.e. Tkachuk, Dubois) is that Marner is 2 years older. Personally, I don't think that's much of a factor, considering Marner doesn't exactly play the most physically-abusing game.
Beyond that, whether a guy has no trade protection, but specifies "these are the 4-5 teams that I am willing to sign with", or has a full NMC, and gives you a list of 4-5 teams that he's willing to sign with.
Even when it comes down to a willingness to give a "proper" list.... NHL players like security. I'm sure Marner wants to get his next deal done this year, just as much as Dubois and Tkachuk did last year. To walk into a lame-duck season is incredibly risky when you're talking about a contract that will likely be between $90m and $100m.
The other element at play for a contender, because of teh way Marner's contract is structured, there is the option of getting a 1-year repreive on the cap hit. Wait until July 2 to formalize the deal, have a 3rd team involved to take on a chunk of his cap hit.
As you've also mentioned, none of the guys traded have had the resume Marner does, even if it's only regular season. Well over a point per game in each of the last 5 seasons. A pace of 100 points overall over a 5-season stretch.
Even in the playoffs, 50 points in 57 games in his career. Dubois had 26 in 38 games. Tkachuk had 15 in 27 games prior to being traded. Let's not forget, he wasn't good against Boston, but he had 14 points in 11 games last year, leading the Leafs.
