Player Discussion Morgan Rielly

[Stephen]

ye people get so in their feelings about players when they under perform, i want changes but i wont just make up random crap about players to suit my argument, as i said these players have sufficient flaws, they dont need people making up new ones for them lol.

as for playing hurt, i dont really see that with him, he wasnt bad defensively this series for the most part, but didnt do much of anything offensively which is what we need him for.

I dunno with Rielly. He just seems like he’s often got his head in the clouds and isn’t competing that hard defensively, sloppy details in zone and prone to getting cycled, puck watching all day as well as running around like a chicken with its head cut off every time there’s an odd man rush.

Offensively he’s become more and more robotic and predictable with the puck, making poor decisions on special teams and doing everything either at an exaggeratedly ineffective slow or down pace or it’s chaotic Lone Ranger rushing.

For all the talk about him needing a partner (babysitter) maybe the biggest problem is he doesn’t actually give us that much value.

 

[1specter]

And that's where I'll disagree, he's overpaid by at least 1 million and in reality on a cup contender is your #2 or 3.

2024-25 Active NHL Players - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

2024-25 NHL players who are currently active in the league

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List of D by highest cap hits going into next season. 26 guys ahead of Rielly - of these you can make a fairly strong argument that he is either better than (or at least comparable to) Jones (9.5), Werenski (9.5), Nurse (9.25), Hamilton (9.0), Sergachev (8.5), Trouba (8.0), Chabot (8.0), Orlov (7.75), Spurgeon (7.5), Ekblad (7.5). I would also take him over Dunn who makes slightly less (7.3). Also, if we're considering this season's version of Karlsson (11.5M AAV) to represent what EK will be going forward, than I like Rielly over him as well.

He's definitely not overpaid, there are only definitively 15-16 guys who are all-around better than him at his position.

 

[Skullz]

I think Rielly is okay. He hasn't been quite as good as we might have hoped he would turn out to be when he was younger, but he has been a workhorse for us, and his cap hit is reasonable. I would be interested to see how he performs with a partner who can also move the puck well.

That being said, he cannot be back on the powerplay next year. How his point production declines if that happens will say a lot about his game.

 

[ashs]

#1 in losing and shooting the puck at opposing teams shins

 

[Stephen]

2024-25 Active NHL Players - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

2024-25 NHL players who are currently active in the league

www.capfriendly.com

List of D by highest cap hits going into next season. 26 guys ahead of Rielly - of these you can make a fairly strong argument that he is either better than (or at least comparable to) Jones (9.5), Werenski (9.5), Nurse (9.25), Hamilton (9.0), Sergachev (8.5), Trouba (8.0), Chabot (8.0), Orlov (7.75), Spurgeon (7.5), Ekblad (7.5). I would also take him over Dunn who makes slightly less (7.3). Also, if we're considering this season's version of Karlsson (11.5M AAV) to represent what EK will be going forward, than I like Rielly over him as well.

He's definitely not overpaid, there are only definitively 15-16 guys who are all-around better than him at his position.

Vince Dunn is emerging as a very dynamic defenseman on Seattle. I think the reputation call going to Rielly is what it’s, but I’d happily swap a Rielly for Dunn at this point in their careers.

 

[Zybalto]

Stretching Morgan Riellys playoff performance over the last 4 years into full season projected numbers:

Goals: 21
Points: 61
PPG: .750 (Ranks 6th in the league over that time among dmen with 20 games played)
Plus/Minus: +41

We are living in a strange world of flailing about by Leafs fans when they cant recognise which players have been obviously good in the playoffs.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Stretching Morgan Riellys playoff performance over the last 4 years into full season projected numbers:

Goals: 21
Points: 61
PPG: .750 (Ranks 6th in the league over that time among dmen with 20 games played)
Plus/Minus: +41

We are living in a strange world of flailing about by Leafs fans when they cant recognise which players have been obviously good in the playoffs.

Outside of the Tampa series, hasn't our PP been really shitty against BOS, CBJ, MTL etc?

I think he's really easy PP QB to defend against, he's not a shot threat and isn't mobile up top to create new shooting lanes and passing lines.

 

[Zybalto]

Outside of the Tampa series, hasn't our PP been really shitty against BOS, CBJ, MTL etc?

I think he's really easy PP QB to defend against, he's not a shot threat and isn't mobile up top to create new shooting lanes and passing lines.

Putting aside his Riellys dominant ES numbers, we could always try someone else there too I guess but thats on management to come up with a solution though. Running into top end goaltending and great PKs year after year is going to play a part too.

While we can be critical of Rielly on the PP, I still don't think talking about cutting ties with a guy who has been a top 10 playoff dmen in all other areas makes any sense at all though.

I'm guessing they hoped Kilngberg was going to fill that and that Timmins would also step into that but injuries and flat out poor overall play from the former killed those chances.

This is all minor in the grand scheme of things though. We are looking at a team that never had a real starting playoff goalie. If that isnt solved, everything else is just white noise.

 

[Stephen]

Stretching Morgan Riellys playoff performance over the last 4 years into full season projected numbers:

Goals: 21
Points: 61
PPG: .750 (Ranks 6th in the league over that time among dmen with 20 games played)
Plus/Minus: +41

We are living in a strange world of flailing about by Leafs fans when they cant recognise which players have been obviously good in the playoffs.

Extrapolating offensive stats and projecting them to an 82 game regular season length isn’t really how defensemen are typically valued, especially when those numbers pair with an infamous 1-8 playoff record.

In summary, he’s put up stats. Those stats don’t drive any kind of team success. He’s not off the hook. He’s not really a solution and you don’t build a reputation of him being a playoff performer after one Tampa series. Especially when the season was lost this time around on his lazy little stick check attempt...

 

[Al14]

I dunno with Rielly. He just seems like he’s often got his head in the clouds and isn’t competing that hard defensively, sloppy details in zone and prone to getting cycled, puck watching all day as well as running around like a chicken with its head cut off every time there’s an odd man rush.

Offensively he’s become more and more robotic and predictable with the puck, making poor decisions on special teams and doing everything either at an exaggeratedly ineffective slow or down pace or it’s chaotic Lone Ranger rushing.

For all the talk about him needing a partner (babysitter) maybe the biggest problem is he doesn’t actually give us that much value.

I think management needs to figure out what a lot of Leafs Nation has been seeing for some time.

As a defense man, Rielly is lacking the size to punish opposing forwards. As a 'rover', he has good speed and mobility. His ability to join the rush and provide a target for a pass and wrist shot on net can be supreme. That also increases the opposing team's chances of an odd man rush on a bad turn over.

Rielly really lacks any type of a heavy shot from the point. His point shot is not respected around the league at all. His muffin shots from the point rarely get through as they are easily blocked.

Rielly makes a great #3 D on a highly competitive team. He alone can't make a team a Stanley Cup champion.

It just might be time to trade him in a package for a more complete, and true, number 1 D-man !!!


JMHO.

 

[Stephen]

I think management needs to figure out what a lot of Leafs Nation has been seeing for some time.

As a defense man, Rielly is lacking the size to punish opposing forwards. As a 'rover', he has good speed and mobility. His ability to join the rush and provide a target for a pass and wrist shot on net can be supreme. That also increases the opposing team's chances of an odd man rush on a bad turn over.

Rielly really lacks any type of a heavy shot from the point. His point shot is not respected around the league at all. His muffin shots from the point rarely get through as they are easily blocked.

Rielly makes a great #3 D on a highly competitive team. He alone can't make a team a Stanley Cup champion.

It just might be time to trade him in a package for a more complete, and true, number 1 D-man !!!


JMHO.

I agree with your assessment. I’m just over the overvaluing of Morgan because he is/was a sentimental favorite and such a long time Leaf. In the harsh light of day, I see a lot of flaws in the player.

 

[Zybalto]

Extrapolating offensive stats and projecting them to an 82 game regular season length isn’t really how defensemen are typically valued, especially when those numbers pair with an infamous 1-8 playoff record.

In summary, he’s put up stats. Those stats don’t drive any kind of team success. He’s not off the hook. He’s not really a solution and you don’t build a reputation of him being a playoff performer after one Tampa series. Especially when the season was lost this time around on his lazy little stick check attempt...

Plus minus on its own isnt a great stat without the team stats to go along with it right?
I mean, +41 could be impressive but if your team has a massive edge in ES goals, its not as impressive right?

The fact Rielly would have a +41 on a team that would only have a projected +13 over an 82 game season is just insane. He's either the luckiest player out there or he is an invaluable piece of this team. It's not just one series either, thats over the last 4 playoffs.

Among all top minute dmen, he near the top for ES goal differential. His comparables are guys like Slavin.

...and his goal/point totals are more than solid and look even better relative what his teammates have put up.

Gotta look at the whole picture and not let one play define a players body of work. Pastas one of the great players in the league the Leafs kept largely in check during the series and made a great play.....and he was healthy.

With our stars playing injured and our starting goalie getting pulled for playing like crap (again), I'm not sure what else to say than to not overreact by firing everyone and everything into the sun.

If you win, everything can be excused and if you dont everything gets poked at, I understand that but it gets exhausting to keep hearing that goaltending is the most important thing in the playoffs and then we get to run Campbellx2 (not even good enough for the league after he left us and then Samsonovx2 getting benched 2 playoffs straight. Its deja vu all over again. This is a good team that is carrying bad goaltending and that just doesnt cut it in playoff series against Vezina contending keepers on the other side.

 

[Smif]

For a decade we've been talking about finding a player to play with Morgan Rielly, but his sputtering offense, terrible special teams contributions on the powerplay, inconsistent and sloppy defensive play, that daydreaming sequence in the Game 7 OT loss to Boston, I don't think he's part of a winning recipe.

We have to find a defenseman who can supplant him in the "number one" role that will bump him down the roster, and with his cap being what it is, he's really not a guy who can be locked in till 2029-30 with a NMC.

What a disappointing player.

Rielly - Lyubushkin would be a nice 2nd pair.

 

[Stephen]

Plus minus on its own isnt a great stat without the team stats to go along with it right?
I mean, +41 could be impressive but if your team has a massive edge in ES goals, its not as impressive right?

The fact Rielly would have a +41 on a team that would only have a projected +13 over an 82 game season is just insane. He's either the luckiest player out there or he is an invaluable piece of this team. It's not just one series either, thats over the last 4 playoffs.

Among all top minute dmen, he near the top for ES goal differential. His comparables are guys like Slavin.

...and his goal/point totals are more than solid and look even better relative what his teammates have put up.

Gotta look at the whole picture and not let one play define a players body of work. Pastas one of the great players in the league the Leafs kept largely in check during the series and made a great play.....and he was healthy.

With our stars playing injured and our starting goalie getting pulled for playing like crap (again), I'm not sure what else to say than to not overreact by firing everyone and everything into the sun.

If you win, everything can be excused and if you dont everything gets poked at, I understand that but it gets exhausting to keep hearing that goaltending is the most important thing in the playoffs and then we get to run Campbellx2 (not even good enough for the league after he left us and then Samsonovx2 getting benched 2 playoffs straight. Its deja vu all over again. This is a good team that is carrying bad goaltending and that just doesnt cut it in playoff series against Vezina contending keepers on the other side.

My problem with all this is the excuses are so plentiful, the blame so diffuse, the circumstances so extenuating that by the time you get past all the individual evaluations, it’s suddenly no one’s fault. And in that blameless, stats sheet kind of way Rielly floats in that slipstream between accountability and completely off the hook. It’s kind of not his fault. He could be better. He looked so distraught. He’s here for life with job security champions can only dream of.

I don’t think he’s a bad guy. Of course he’s not. I don’t it’s all his fault. He’s had some positive moments over the years. But the whole relationship is so complacent. And I think we’ve seen the best of him. And it’s never been good enough.

 

[Stephen]

Rielly - Lyubushkin would be a nice 2nd pair.

Yeah it would be ok, if we can slot 2 guys ahead of them. Or one alpha and a junior partner.

 

[Tak7]

And that's where I'll disagree, he's overpaid by at least 1 million and in reality on a cup contender is your #2 or 3.

He's not overpaid by any metric or comparable - it's fair value.

 

[Maple Leaf]

He's not overpaid by any metric or comparable - it's fair value.

Rielly is ok
Overpaid a bit
No shutdown D
No number one D
No cup

 

[WTFMAN99]

Putting aside his Riellys dominant ES numbers, we could always try someone else there too I guess but thats on management to come up with a solution though. Running into top end goaltending and great PKs year after year is going to play a part too.

While we can be critical of Rielly on the PP, I still don't think talking about cutting ties with a guy who has been a top 10 playoff dmen in all other areas makes any sense at all though.

I'm guessing they hoped Kilngberg was going to fill that and that Timmins would also step into that but injuries and flat out poor overall play from the former killed those chances.

This is all minor in the grand scheme of things though. We are looking at a team that never had a real starting playoff goalie. If that isnt solved, everything else is just white noise.

The bolded I think goes back to the end of the season presser, we need to stop saying we go goalie'd and turning the other team's goalie into the 1st star.

Seeing in every other series, point shot with traffic in front tips/rebounds or just beating the goalie, sometimes a pass to a wide open guy for a tap in exists but it's always greasy goals, we flat out sucked against Boston.

I'm very open to moving on from Rielly, I don't think I have heard all that much on him though....I think they're going to trade 1 core guy, bring in a new coach and try to sell that it's a different team when they really need to probably move 2/3 of Rielly, Marner and JT.

 

[Zybalto]

My problem with all this is the excuses are so plentiful, the blame so diffuse, the circumstances so extenuating that by the time you get past all the individual evaluations, it’s suddenly no one’s fault. And in that blameless, stats sheet kind of way Rielly floats in that slipstream between accountability and completely off the hook. It’s kind of not his fault. He could be better. He looked so distraught. He’s here for life with job security champions can only dream of.

I don’t think he’s a bad guy. Of course he’s not. I don’t it’s all his fault. He’s had some positive moments over the years. But the whole relationship is so complacent. And I think we’ve seen the best of him. And it’s never been good enough.

So lets not make excuses but lets look at what has worked.

Taking away the teams special teams woes (which may or not be corrected with a coaching change), Here are Riellys ES numbers and his ranking among all 82 dmen with 20+ games the last 4 seasons (per quant):

Goals per 60: .639 (2nd out of 82)
Points per 60: 1.827 (3rd out of 82)

Marry this with his +41 and the fact his team wasnt exactly a high scoring threat and you can a legit conversation of whether or not Morgan Rielly has been the best ES dman in the playoffs over the last 4 seasons. Statistically, he's up there with guys like Makar and Slavin for sure.

Seeing as the PP isnt all on him, I think he's on a pretty damn good contract too.

If you just want to go by this years team, only 8 Leafs had both 50%+ xGF% and a 50%+ goal differential:

Rielly
Matthews
Tavares
Marner
Nylander
Lyubushkin
McCabe

These guys rocked both positive analytics and outcomes.

Putting aside Brodie and Gregor who played limited minutes, 3 Leafs were not on the ice for a goal scored for the team the entire 7 game stretch:

Robertson
Jarnkrok
Holmberg

3 Leafs on the list of only 10 players in the entire league (239 players, min 50 minutes played) that it was the case for. Thats not good. Jarnkrok at least has the fact he was banged up much of the 2nd half but those other 2 are probably dead men walking. A goal or two here and there and the Leafs win that close series.

...or maybe grab a guy like Saros (who was available back in Feb.) and everything changes. Robertson + Holmberg + 1st + prospect as a rental would have probably got it done. If I was GM, he'd be a Leaf right now but the Leafs thought Samsonov was the better option I guess.

 

[Zybalto]

The bolded I think goes back to the end of the season presser, we need to stop saying we go goalie'd and turning the other team's goalie into the 1st star.

Seeing in every other series, point shot with traffic in front tips/rebounds or just beating the goalie, sometimes a pass to a wide open guy for a tap in exists but it's always greasy goals, we flat out sucked against Boston.

I'm very open to moving on from Rielly, I don't think I have heard all that much on him though....I think they're going to trade 1 core guy, bring in a new coach and try to sell that it's a different team when they really need to probably move 2/3 of Rielly, Marner and JT.

I would stop saying we were goalied if we had a goalie.

Hell, try this thought experiment:

The Leafs have been a top 10 team the last 4 years. We have rolled with Campbellx2 and Samsonovx2.

Can you name a worse starter on the 36 other teams than the goalies the Leafs have rolled with the last 4 years?

The fact that is even a hard question should tell us everything.

I'ts easy to get goalied (especially in the goalie rich Atlantic over that stretch) when your goalies are barely NHLers.

 

[centipede2233]

He is a 2-3 paid like a 2-3. A true # 1 is 10 sheets

The problem is he’s the best defenceman when he should be the 2nd or 3rd best defenceman on a cup contending team

 

[mjd1001]

2024-25 Active NHL Players - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

2024-25 NHL players who are currently active in the league

www.capfriendly.com

List of D by highest cap hits going into next season. 26 guys ahead of Rielly - of these you can make a fairly strong argument that he is either better than (or at least comparable to) Jones (9.5), Werenski (9.5), Nurse (9.25), Hamilton (9.0), Sergachev (8.5), Trouba (8.0), Chabot (8.0), Orlov (7.75), Spurgeon (7.5), Ekblad (7.5). I would also take him over Dunn who makes slightly less (7.3). Also, if we're considering this season's version of Karlsson (11.5M AAV) to represent what EK will be going forward, than I like Rielly over him as well.

He's definitely not overpaid, there are only definitively 15-16 guys who are all-around better than him at his position.

For the money, I'd want Werenski, Trouba, and a healthy Hamilton for sure. Probably Ekblad.

 

[1specter]

For the money, I'd want Werenski, Trouba, and a healthy Hamilton for sure. Probably Ekblad.

Lol @ Trouba. He's been largely a disappointment and Rangers fans want to move off his deal in an ideal world. You guys complain that Rielly didn't produce enough yet Trouba barely produces for even more money and isn't even that good defensively, he's still living off the reputation of his career year in Winnipeg. Werenski isn't worth 2 mil more at all either.

 

[Ports]

To be fair Hyman figured out how to lift the puck at 30, miracles do happen sometimes

What does Hyman have to do with Rielly sucking at defense and being a black hole on the PP ?

 

[Martin Skoula]

What does Hyman have to do with Rielly sucking at defense and being a black hole on the PP ?

It’s proof that sometimes players learn basic skills at 30, maybe next year Rielly comes into camp with a tier 1 clapper