Salary Cap: Pens 2024 Summer Thread: "Thus, knocking us out of these superior numbers when we emerge! Mr. President, we must not allow a non-playoff bound gap!"

[Sidney the Kidney]

People clamoring for Kotkaniemi remind me of when people were clamoring for Puljujarvi because he was going to be the next Nichushkin (minus the off-ice stuff).

Kotkaniemi as our 3C would be like getting Eller offensively but with Kapanen's consistency level.

 

[Gurglesons]

"Kotkaniemi is middle-6 caliber because he has a 1.75 5v5 points/60 with the Hurricanes"

Hmm, I wonder what Smith was at last year

View attachment 873018

Oh. But yes, "closer to being forced to retire than get another deal" or something.

One is a 23 year old center. One will be a 34 year old winger.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

Speaking of Kap, that stupid f***ing contract Hextall gave him is up. Wonder if he signs for league minimum or just heads to Europe.

 

[Gurglesons]

People clamoring for Kotkaniemi remind me of when people were clamoring for Puljujarvi because he was going to be the next Nichushkin (minus the off-ice stuff).

Kotkaniemi as our 3C would be like getting Eller offensively but with Kapanen's consistency level.

It'll be interesting to see what Puljujarvi does next year. Hard to judge him this year based off the surgery recovery, but I thought he showed some juice.

The more I think about Kotkaniemi, Rakell probably makes more sense in a trade if Carolina is not signing Necas.

Speaking of Kap, that stupid f***ing contract Hextall gave him is up. Wonder if he signs for league minimum or just heads to Europe.

Feels like a player Colorado, Edmonton, or Tampa brings in on a one year 800k deal.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

It'll be interesting to see what Puljujarvi does next year. Hard to judge him this year based off the surgery recovery, but I thought he showed some juice.

I mean, I don't necessarily think Puljujarvi "sucks". But I also don't see anything about him that suggests he'll be this 60+ point possession monster Nichushkin turned into in Colorado.

Same with Kotkaniemi. He doesn't "suck" and is a perfectly fine bottom six player, but I don't think he moves the needles over what we've had at 3C over the last few years. He's basically Eller offensively, but a lot less consistent of effort defensively.

 

[Empoleon8771]

See above.

Yeah, it's still monstrously stupid.

The sole example of anything even close to that happening to a Smith caliber player in recent memory is with Kessel, and frankly calling Kessel "Smith caliber" by the end of his time in the NHL is really generous.

The reality is that if Smith has a shitty year next year and puts up like 30 points, he'll get a 1 year deal just like JVR and Dadonov got to see if he can bounce back. The idea that he'll be "forced to retire" like Kessel is just laughable, especially considering he didn't even have that bad of a year last year to suggest he's on some rapid decline.

 

[Gurglesons]

I mean, I don't necessarily think Puljujarvi "sucks". But I also don't see anything about him that suggests he'll be this 60+ point possession monster Nichushkin turned into in Colorado.

Same with Kotkaniemi. He doesn't "suck" and is a perfectly fine bottom six player, but I don't think he moves the needles over what we've had at 3C over the last few years. He's basically Eller offensively, but a lot less consistent of effort defensively.

Nichuskin was not anything like the player he has been for the last few years in his initial seasons with Colorado.

I don't think it'll happen. But, I could see Puljujarvi being a 12-15 goal 30 pt guy.'

Concept with Kotkaniemi in my eyes would be hoping his potential shines through a little bit and he's a consistent 20 - 20 guy with defensive metrics. You can say that is an Eller, but prime Eller was a very good player.

Yeah, it's still monstrously stupid.

The sole example of anything even close to that happening to a Smith caliber player in recent memory is with Kessel, and frankly calling Kessel "Smith caliber" by the end of his time in the NHL is really generous.

The reality is that if Smith has a shitty year next year and puts up like 30 points, he'll get a 1 year deal just like JVR and Dadonov got to see if he can bounce back. The idea that he'll be "forced to retire" like Kessel is just laughable, especially considering he didn't even have that bad of a year last year to suggest he's on some rapid decline.

Sure, I can see him getting a one year 1 million to 3 million dollar deal.

My point is he's playing for his NHL career more so than his "next big contract".

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think the most likely outcome with Smith is that the Penguins trade him for similar to what they paid for him a year ago, or they retain a bit on him to get a slightly better return than what they gave up last year for him. If Dubas is serious about wanting to use some of the prospects and picks to upgrade the roster now, trading a 2nd for Nick Robertson and recovering a 3rd for Smith with some salary retention, that seems like a really logical way of doing that. I don't really care if Dubas retains $1.5 million for 1 year on Smith if it means they can get a better return for him, especially in this context since Robertson would likely be signing a cheaper bridge deal.

I doubt he'll be here in October regardless though. While Dubas said what he said, I really doubt Dubas wants to go into next year with O'Connor on L1 and Smith on L3. If the focus is to get younger, Smith is the painfully most obvious guy to go from the forward group. Not only is he their oldest winger and likely most tradeable winger (based on only having 1 year left), but they also need a LW more than a RW since O'Connor is more ideally on L3 than L1. They need to clear a LW spot to add that LW to play with Crosby.

 

[Gurglesons]

I think the most likely outcome with Smith is that the Penguins trade him for similar to what they paid for him a year ago, or they retain a bit on him to get a slightly better return than what they gave up last year for him. If Dubas is serious about wanting to use some of the prospects and picks to upgrade the roster now, trading a 2nd for Nick Robertson and recovering a 3rd for Smith with some salary retention, that seems like a really logical way of doing that. I don't really care if Dubas retains $1.5 million for 1 year on Smith if it means they can get a better return for him, especially in this context since Robertson would likely be signing a cheaper bridge deal.

I doubt he'll be here in October regardless though. While Dubas said what he said, I really doubt Dubas wants to go into next year with O'Connor on L1 and Smith on L3. If the focus is to get younger, Smith is the painfully most obvious guy to go from the forward group. Not only is he their oldest winger and likely most tradeable winger (based on only having 1 year left), but they also need a LW more than a RW since O'Connor is more ideally on L3 than L1. They need to clear a LW spot to add that LW to play with Crosby.

Not sure any team is going to want to add Reilly Smith this summer without us retaining or paying them to take him at full value tbh.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Not sure any team is going to want to add Reilly Smith this summer without us retaining or paying them to take him at full value tbh.

Please provide even a single example of a team paying to get out of a player on Smith's contract coming off a 40 point season. Literally one example.

The only times anything even kinda close to that happens is if a team is over the cap and absolutely has to move money, like when Vegas paid to move Pacioretty or Boston got back effectively nothing for Hall. But that doesn't apply to the Penguins whatsoever.

 

[Pancakes]

Speaking of Kap, that stupid f***ing contract Hextall gave him is up. Wonder if he signs for league minimum or just heads to Europe.

Definitely was not surprised to see him suck just as bad in St. Louis

 

[Gurglesons]

Please provide even a single example of a team paying to get out of a player on Smith's contract coming off a 40 point season. Literally one example.

Just don't see the market for him.

Kevin Hayes was a 54 point center and they had to eat a ton of cap last system granted he had term.

Dadonov was a 40+ pt forward with one year left making 5 million and the Knights had to take on Weber to get out of his deal.

Atkinson had 34 points in 50ish games and resulted in Voracek coming back.

Smith's trade protection and the lack of cap for a lot of contenders which I assume is how his trade protection will be built just makes me think you don't see a lot of teams keen on adding him at full cost. Not to mention he's the kind of player that has really never had trade value ever in his entire NHL career.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Dadonov was a 40+ pt forward with one year left making 5 million and the Knights had to take on Weber to get out of his deal.

I don't think that comparison is invalid, I think it's probably the best comparison out there even with Vegas' known cap issues. But I don't think taking on Weber's deal is really a "negative", here. That deal looks more like Vegas giving up Dadonov for nothing. Which considering Weber's rights were later traded for basically nothing (Weber's LTIR contract and a 5th for Mayo), that seems about right.

I could definitely see the Smith trade being like the Hall trade from last year, where the Penguins just get some young AHLers who likely will only be AHLers in the deal. But paying to get out of his deal isn't something that at all seems reasonable with Smith.

I think they can get a 3rd for Smith if they retain him down to $3.5 million. If it's full money, they probably just get some young AHLer or a 5th or something like that.

 

[Gurglesons]

I don't think that comparison is invalid, I think it's probably the best comparison out there even with Vegas' known cap issues. But I don't think taking on Weber's deal is really a "negative", here. That deal looks more like Vegas giving up Dadonov for nothing. Which considering Weber's rights were later traded for basically nothing (Weber's LTIR contract and a 5th for Mayo), that seems about right.

I could definitely see the Smith trade being like the Hall trade from last year, where the Penguins just get some young AHLers who likely will only be AHLers in the deal. But paying to get out of his deal isn't something that at all seems reasonable with Smith.

I assume if Dubas was willing to eat contract or whatever for Smith to be gone he would've been gone at the deadline.

I guess my question is like.. who is taking Smith for nothing? I just don't see the attractiveness after how mediocre he was last year. I just looked at didn't realize his NTC goes down to 8 teams, so that probably helps.

 

[SEALBound]

If you need a top 6 left wing with minimal contract risk, Smith is a fine choice. Even with FA, I don't think there are many FAs that a team would want that would sign a one year deal.

I would also suggest Smith is primed for a rebound year NOT in Pittsburgh. I would expect a similar level of play as Zucker in his last year here as he'll be playing for the next contract.

And if all it takes is a decent AHL player or a 3rd/4th round pick, easy.

 

[Empoleon8771]

I think the argument regarding the market's perception of Smith and what they would pay for him ignores what the Penguins would be looking to do here. Based on pretty much every trade deadline, Smith would bring back a 3rd or 4th as a rental next year and possibly even a 2nd if he has a good year. What's really the benefit for them to pay to move him in the off-season, when waiting 9 months likely gives them a much better return? They're not a win-now team anymore. A team might say "you'll have to pay us to move his deal", but the Penguins can rightfully say "we can just hold onto him and sell him at the deadline for value".

I might see them being willing to trade Smith for nothing to just get his contract off the books, but if any trade is worse than that, why wouldn't they just hold onto him until the deadline? Even if he just repeats what he did last year, trading him at the deadline with 50% retained likely brings back a 3rd round pick (either straight up 3rd or 4th that can turn into a 3rd). That's exactly what happened with Kuznetsov, Tarasenko and Roslovic last year, and prices were abnormally low last year as well.

In a world where Chad Ruhwedel brings back a 4th as a rental, I don't really see a reason to pay to move Smith in the off-season if you can just wait until the deadline to move him.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

The idea of getting "the next Nichushkin" is great and all, unfortunately he's an exceptionally rare type of player that you'd be lucky to pick off the reclamation heap once every 50 years.

It's not like good scouting is all of a sudden going to yield one over the next few years here.

 

[Ulf5]

Speaking of Kap, that stupid f***ing contract Hextall gave him is up. Wonder if he signs for league minimum or just heads to Europe.

Ole Jimmy has the Brinks truck on speed dial.

 

[PensandCaps]

Please provide even a single example of a team paying to get out of a player on Smith's contract coming off a 40 point season. Literally one example.

The only times anything even kinda close to that happens is if a team is over the cap and absolutely has to move money, like when Vegas paid to move Pacioretty or Boston got back effectively nothing for Hall. But that doesn't apply to the Penguins whatsoever.

40 points next to Malkin in a high scorimg league at 5 mil is gonna cost to move. Or at least take salary back.

 

[SEALBound]

I think the argument regarding the market's perception of Smith and what they would pay for him ignores what the Penguins would be looking to do here. Based on pretty much every trade deadline, Smith would bring back a 3rd or 4th as a rental next year and possibly even a 2nd if he has a good year. What's really the benefit for them to pay to move him in the off-season, when waiting 9 months likely gives them a much better return? They're not a win-now team anymore. A team might say "you'll have to pay us to move his deal", but the Penguins can rightfully say "we can just hold onto him and sell him at the deadline for value".

I might see them being willing to trade Smith for nothing to just get his contract off the books, but if any trade is worse than that, why wouldn't they just hold onto him until the deadline? Even if he just repeats what he did last year, trading him at the deadline with 50% retained likely brings back a 3rd round pick (either straight up 3rd or 4th that can turn into a 3rd). That's exactly what happened with Kuznetsov, Tarasenko and Roslovic last year, and prices were abnormally low last year as well.

In a world where Chad Ruhwedel brings back a 4th as a rental, I don't really see a reason to pay to move Smith in the off-season if you can just wait until the deadline to move him.

I agree with that assessment. I mean, worst case, they keep Smith to start the year and all that really means is that you have a top 6 LW that can be put on lines 1, 2, or 3.

While we were all underwhelmed by his overall performance it's not like it was so bad that you can play him or you need to shelter him.

I would also hope Dubas becomes more aggressive with making move if things don't work. You don't have to go Full JR but certainly make a swap here and there. If anything, that was the biggest knock on him last year. You can't have the roster we have performing the way it is the entire f***ing year and sit on your hands until the TDL. Not if you want in the playoffs.

The idea of getting "the next Nichushkin" is great and all, unfortunately he's an exceptionally rare type of player that you'd be lucky to pick off the reclamation heap once every 50 years.

It's not like good scouting is all of a sudden going to yield one over the next few years here.

I'd like you to meet the 2016 4th overall pick, Jesse Puljujarvi.

If there's a Nuke here, he's it.

 

[Empoleon8771]

40 points next to Malkin in a high scorimg league at 5 mil is gonna cost to move. Or at least take salary back.

If that's the case, provide an example of players doing that. Literally anyone.

You can't because the list doesn't exist. Players with Smith's production and contract flat out do not cost assets to move. At worst, they're traded for nothing or minimal returns.

Even if the market did suggest that he would cost assets to move, why would the Penguins even trade him in that case? They could just retain 50% on him as a deadline rental and get a 3rd or 4th for him.

 

[Gurglesons]

If that's the case, provide an example of players doing that. Literally anyone.

You can't because the list doesn't exist. Players with Smith's production and contract flat out do not cost assets to move. At worst, they're traded for nothing or minimal returns.

Even if the market did suggest that he would cost assets to move, why would the Penguins even trade him in that case? They could just retain 50% on him as a deadline rental and get a 3rd or 4th for him.

I don't think they will.

 

[Rakell67]

It'll be interesting to see what Puljujarvi does next year. Hard to judge him this year based off the surgery recovery, but I thought he showed some juice.

The more I think about Kotkaniemi, Rakell probably makes more sense in a trade if Carolina is not signing Necas.



Feels like a player Colorado, Edmonton, or Tampa brings in on a one year 800k deal.

I could see Philly as well.

 

[Gurglesons]

I could see Philly as well.

Torts and Kapanen? lol.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Speaking on the Robertson idea, I wonder if the Leafs would do Robertson for Smith at 50% and one of the Penguins 2nds. I figure Smith's playoff history will be really enticing for a team trying to take the next step in the playoffs, while Robertson seems like a great Guentzel replacement for Crosby if he ends up clicking there.

It kinda sucks to eat $2.5 million of Smith's deal, but Robertson will likely be on a bridge deal next year anyway so I don't think it's that big of a problem. If Robertson is anything like what his scouting report ready (agitating undersized goal scorer), I don't particularly care to eat that kind of dead money for 1 year on Smith.

Now if they'd do the deal without Smith, you do that in an instant. But if they'd want more, I think dangling Smith at 50% would be pretty enticing for a team trying to take the next step in the playoffs.