Salary Cap: RFA Negotiations: Tatar & AA

[Frk It]

From HSJ:

Detroit Red Wings forward Tomas Tatar is expected to file for arbitration this afternoon.

It’s not an unusual practice for restricted free agents to do so, as it affords them a measure of rights, and his agent and the Detroit Red Wings can continue to negotiate while awaiting a hearing.

If it does go to arbitration, it would be a one-year deal because Tatar is eligible to become an unrestricted free agent next summer.

Tatar is seeking a multi-year deal worth around $5 million annually.

The Athletic on AA:

Athanasiou is still establishing himself as an NHL regular so his camp doesn’t have much appetite to lock him in at a low-average salary on a long-term deal.

If it’s a two-year bridge deal, the best comparable may be Canucks forward Sven Baertschi, who signed a two-year deal last summer with an annual cap hit of $1.85 million. When he signed, he was one-year older than Athanasiou and was coming off a 15-goal season, compared to the 18 goals Athanasiou scored this season, so it might be a touch low. Matt Cane’s projections have Athanasiou at $1.9 million, so we’re right in the ballpark.

The Athletic on Tatar:

The Red Wings are willing to go four or five years on Tatar, but finding a salary that makes sense for both sides will be the challenge.

The best comparable for Tatar may be Senators forward Mike Hoffman, who avoided arbitration last year with Ottawa by signing a four-year contract worth $20.75 million ($5.185 million AAV) after putting up 56 goals in the previous two seasons combined before signing. Like Tatar is now, Hoffman was 26 years old when he signed.

Sources:
-http://www.freep.com/story/sports/n.../red-wings-tomas-tatar-arbitration/452176001/
-https://theathletic.com/72913/2017/...s-athanasious-next-contracts-might-look-like/

Click to read more...

 

[njx9]

Weird that AA doesn't want to sign long term. Who could've seen that coming. I'm surprised Tatar wants term, and doesn't just want the 1 year to UFA, though maybe that's just injury fears.

 

[Beltv]

I think these projections were all something that we had penciled in here. Obviously we are in a cap crunch so Kenny most likely low balling to save a little. They'll get that in arbitration I believe.

Looks like we are going to be in trouble even with Franzen on SOIR. Unless ofcourse Big E and Kronner start the season on IR as well. (Most of us think that is what will happen anyway, which would explain the signing of BOTH Daley AND Witkowski)

 

[Flowah]

You gotta think Tatar's getting at least 5x5. Any less of a hit than that and Holland's done good.

 

[Frk It]

I'm expecting/guessing (basically same as The Athletic suggests, I like their comps)

Tatar - 4 years, 21 million (5.25m AAV)
Athanasiou - 2 years, 4 million (2m AAV)

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

AA doesn't want term because his team has zero leverage on a long term deal. He's still eminently replaceable on a re-building team. For what he thinks he's capable of, he'd be wildly underpaid on a long term deal if signed now.

 

[Ezekial]

Weird that AA doesn't want to sign long term. Who could've seen that coming. I'm surprised Tatar wants term, and doesn't just want the 1 year to UFA, though maybe that's just injury fears.

Why the hell would he?

Getting locked in at 5x2mil wouldn't be a good move for his career.

Tatar wants guaranteed money, these players have more to worry about than being on an amazing team.

 

[njx9]

Why the hell would he?

Getting locked in at 5x2mil wouldn't be a good move for his career.

Especially on a team that regularly drops him to 6 minutes a night. Signing for 5x$4m or something actually vaguely reasonable would be moronic, as well.

Tatar wants guaranteed money, these players have more to worry about than being on an amazing team.

You're right; that's why every player has always gone to the highest bidder, only, and has always maxed out their contract. Or something.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Especially on a team that regularly drops him to 6 minutes a night. Signing for 5x$4m or something actually vaguely reasonable would be moronic, as well.

He doesn't have the leverage to get 4 million. Players in his situation sign bridge-deals 99% of the time.

 

[Goalie guy]

I think we are going to start seeing a lot of the kids doing the same thing, they don't trust KH or Trashill. They don't really want to stay here on a sinking ship that they will be blamed for.

 

[Ezekial]

5x4 for AA would be one of the worst contract negotiations in the history of the sport. It's so far from vaguely reasonable it's not even funny.

 

[njx9]

He doesn't have the leverage to get 4 million. Players in his situation sign bridge-deals 99% of the time.

We started talking about not wanting a long term deal at a low average salary, which was mentioned in the original post. I then mentioned that signing for a non-low average salary would be equally moronic. The relative frequency that players sign those types of deals is completely non sequitur to that conversation.

5x4 for AA would be one of the worst contract negotiations in the history of the sport. It's so far from vaguely reasonable it's not even funny.

God forbid anyone ever use an example. Let's discuss the specific contract details of a hypothetical example instead of what that example was being used to illustrate. And let's gloss over that players frequently sign for reasons that aren't solely 'most digits to the left of the decimal'.

 

[Pavels Dog]

We started talking about not wanting a long term deal at a low average salary, which was mentioned in the original post. I then mentioned that signing for a non-low average salary would be equally moronic. The relative frequency that players sign those types of deals is completely non sequitur to that conversation.

There's just nothing strange about AA not wanting a long-term deal, it has nothing to do with his icetime (in fact by Red Wings standards he's spent very little time in the AHL).

 

[Ezekial]

God forbid anyone ever use an example. Let's discuss the specific contract details of a hypothetical example instead of what that example was being used to illustrate. And let's gloss over that players frequently sign for reasons that aren't solely 'most digits to the left of the decimal'.

I'm not saying players only chase money, but in Tatar's case - he's 3 years removed from his career year thus far and trending towards plateau. He's also coming off a year in which he had surgery at the end of it. It's not in his best interest to sign another "bridge" deal to take him to UFA rather than take the guaranteed money and term from the team who holds his rights.

 

[njx9]

There's just nothing strange about AA not wanting a long-term deal, it has nothing to do with his icetime (in fact by Red Wings standards he's spent very little time in the AHL).

His time in the AHL has literally nothing to do with his NHL ice time.

I'm not saying players only chase money, but in Tatar's case - he's 3 years removed from his career year thus far and trending towards plateau. He's also coming off a year in which he had surgery at the end of it. It's not in his best interest to sign another "bridge" deal to take him to UFA rather than take the guaranteed money and term from the team who holds his rights.

OK, that's fair. I'd actually completely forgotten about his recent surgery, so I can certainly see coming off an injury and wanting more security.

That said, I feel like, given contract trends, he'd likely get more dollars on the open market than he'll ever get in Detroit (though he'll likely get far more term in Detroit).

 

[Frk It]

I don't understand the dialogue here.

2 years from now Athanasiou will undoubtedly have more earning potential (bigger sample size to negotiate with and also most likely an increased role). He'll also sign a deal at that point that has a lower % or RFA years and higher % of UFA years, so he will have more leverage to ask for money.

So yeah, you take a bridge deal everytime. It's a no-brainer.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Especially on a team that regularly drops him to 6 minutes a night. Signing for 5x$4m or something actually vaguely reasonable would be moronic, as well.



You're right; that's why every player has always gone to the highest bidder, only, and has always maxed out their contract. Or something.

?

If he got 5 x $4M, that's plenty of security. That would be a fantastic deal for AA and his agents. Even if he got shunted down to 3 minutes a night or benched or whatever... wouldn't he be guaranteed at least 2/3rds of 20M (if the Wings just up and bought him out immediately after signing it)?

5/20M would be terrible on the Wings side of the ledger and is in no way a realistic number for a guy with AA's status in the league.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

His time in the AHL has literally nothing to do with his NHL ice time.



OK, that's fair. I'd actually completely forgotten about his recent surgery, so I can certainly see coming off an injury and wanting more security.

That said, I feel like, given contract trends, he'd likely get more dollars on the open market than he'll ever get in Detroit (though he'll likely get far more term in Detroit).

Tatar would likely get more from another team on the market... but it's not like a team in UFA is gonna give him 6 and Detroit is only offering 4.

He'd get 500-750k more per year elsewhere, probably, but also would likely get 5 or 6 years from Detroit and 3-4 from some other team.

His most likely deal is going to end up being the Nyquist deal, as the two are really comparable still. Maybe adjusted for cap inflation or whatever, but I can't see him getting a ton more than Nyquist.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

We started talking about not wanting a long term deal at a low average salary, which was mentioned in the original post. I then mentioned that signing for a non-low average salary would be equally moronic. The relative frequency that players sign those types of deals is completely non sequitur to that conversation.



God forbid anyone ever use an example. Let's discuss the specific contract details of a hypothetical example instead of what that example was being used to illustrate. And let's gloss over that players frequently sign for reasons that aren't solely 'most digits to the left of the decimal'.

You used an example that was so far out of left field as to be worthless. AA has nowhere near the leverage to pull $4M a year this early in his RFA status. It's not anywhere close to a reasonable dollar amount for a 30 point center/winger with noted questions about his effort and defense. Hell, Darren Helm as a UFA got 3.85 over 5 years... he's a 30 point center/winger who excels on the defensive end and is a vital specialty teams player. And that contract was treated like cancer from the moment it was given out.

And AA signing that deal would be for no other reason than the most digits to left of decimal. That's WAY more guaranteed money than his play up to this point justifies.

To end, I hope you mean signing him to a long term, not low average salary is moronic for the Wings... not for AA. It would be the best of all worlds for him. Get $20M guaranteed, likely be granted every single opportunity near the top lines as you would have to try to make the investment worthwhile, and then be a UFA at the end of it? God damn, that would be a dream scenario for AA.

 

[chances14]

AA has basically one full season under his belt. it would be absolutely moronic for the wings to sign him to a long term deal at anything above 2 million and it would be equally stupid for athanasiou to sign a deal like that

like 99% of other players in his situation, he will sign a bridge deal with the hopes of building up his resume for leverage for his next contract

 

[Wingsfan 4 life]

AA doesn't have the leverage or enough of a track record to command a long term deal or high salary in the short term.

 

[BinCookin]

So what contract number make these 2 whipping boys for having bad contracts?

tatar at 5.5AAV?
AA at 3AAV?

 

[Flowah]

So what contract number make these 2 whipping boys for having bad contracts?

tatar at 5.5AAV?
AA at 3AAV?

Tatar would probably get 5.5 as a UFA. I don't think that makes him a whipping boy. Nor even Holland. Though I would chalk it up to yet another player that apparently we can't get any sort of discount for. I don't think we got discounts on Abby or DK, despite us having "drafted" and developed them and them both being Michigan boys. I think that's indicative of them not seeing a possible win any time soon and preferring to get paid. Players like Shatty will take that discount if they think there's a decent chance at the cup. We used to get that too from guys like Hossa.

If we lock up AA for 6 years at $3M (which won't happen) similar to a Calle Jarnkrok deal, (imagine a 25 year old 3C that players all situations, for $2M a year for the next 5 years. Good deal) I wouldn't be upset with that. Why? Because that's exactly the kind of gamble I think you need to take. I think AA's already pretty established as a middle6 talent. He sure scores like at least a 3rd liner, and without good minutes or even regular PP time. It's a gamble that he is a steal by the 2nd, 3rd year of that contract. But worth taking imo. Those kinds of contracts and ELCs are basically the only way to get real value in the cap era.

Anything under 3 years and if AA gets $3M, then Holland overpaid.

 

[Henkka]

Brett Ritchie from Dallas got 1.75M.

RFA negotiations are always finding comparables, and Athanasiou should get more.

Usually only age + games amount will determine RFA contracts on this phase of career. Production is the least determing factor.

Ritchie 24y, 117 games, 34 points
Andreas, 23y, 101 games, 43 points

This Ricthie contract should set AA to 2M - 2.25M range

 

[Flowah]

Brett Ritchie from Dallas got 1.75M.

RFA negotiations are always finding comparables, and Athanasiou should get more.

Usually only age + games amount will determine RFA contracts on this phase of career. Production is the least determing factor.

Ritchie 24y, 117 games, 34 points
Andreas, 23y, 101 games, 43 points

This Ricthie contract should set AA to 2M - 2.25M range

Wow. He's really producing at a ~.43PPG? That's not bad at all...