Appleyard
Registered User
It's the outliers that are the bigger gambles, at both ends of the spectrum.
6'6 and taller players have a long history of being overdrafted.
5'7 to 5'9 have been underdrafted historically, but that has changed, especially the ones with top level speed.
Barkey is an outlier however, 155 lbs is really light, so how he fills out his frame will probably determine his future - there just aren't a lot of comparables, and those don't bode well. He lacks elite speed, so like Brink, he has to be able to operate in dirty areas to make plays.
I mean... Andrew Cristall got taken ~25 picks too late this last draft. He is DeBrincat 2.0. Such high odds to be a great player.
Gabe Perreault went 23rd when should have gone maybe 10 picks higher.
Reily Heidt almost fell out of the 2nd when probably should have gone ~20-25th.
Jayden Perron went 3rd round.
Dumais went 3rd round in 2022.
Gushchin went 3rd round in 2020.
Farrell went 4th round in 2020.
Berard went 5th round in 2020.
Maccelli went 4th round in 2019.
Brink fell to 34 in 2019 when should have gone top 20.
Maybe guys are not falling as far as they used to... but there is still a bias against smaller guys that the stats dont reflect.
Heck, Benson and Jarvis going ~5-7 picks behind where should have even.
This draft you have:
Nikita Artomonov, Terik Parascak and Luke Misa who will likely fall out of 1st, when if were ~6'1 would be talked about as top 15 picks.
Alex Zetterberg, Justin Poirier, Jett Luchanko, Teddy Stiga, Andrei Krutov, James Reeder, Mac Swanson, Alex Blais, Gavin Hodnett, Topias Hynninen... will all likely be under-drafted due to mainly size. (and only ~25% will end up top 6 level, but still)
And Barkey might not be a burner. But he is agile and has a relentless motor. He is a far better skater than Brink for example.