Speculation: Tristan Jarry on the trade market?

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

This is my own speculation but I do wonder if he could be on the move.

I brought up the possibility in another of my threads but at the time I acknowledged he was probably a year away from being moved because at the time it looked like Pittsburgh was going to finish bottom 10, therefore keeping their pick and losing their 2025 pick.

However things have changed, Pittsburgh is making a charge for the playoffs, which means unless they were to miss and win a lottery spot, they look like they are going to have their 2025 pick allowing them to focus on the future now if they wanted.

They aren't sold on Jarry they tried to move on last year.

is it possible the loss of this years pick will actually be better for their long term future?

Click to read more...

 

[SomeDude]

Don't all line up at once.

 

[Rpenny]

Hell of a battle for the last playoff spot

 

[Empoleon8771]

There was allegedly interest in Jarry at the deadline so I definitely wouldn't rule it out that they'd explore the trade market in the off-season. It's less about Jarry and more about them having a top G prospect in Blomqvist in the AHL, though.

I could absolutely see them moving Jarry this off-season and then re-signing Nedjelkovic for a shorter term, higher AAV deal similar to Mrazek in Chicago. Run with Nedjelkovic-Blomqvist for the short term and eventually groom Bloqmvist to be the new starter.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Don't all line up at once.

Lots of teams need goalies somebody would take.

Toronto
Ottawa
Edmonton
NJ
possibly Philadelphia
Colorado

All come to mind and I bet their are a couple more.

 

[hamzarocks]

Hes a cap dump

4 more years at 5M while being a crappy starter who folds every big game

Not a tradable asset unless sweetners are added

 

[SomeDude]

Lots of teams need goalies somebody would take.

Toronto
Ottawa
Edmonton
NJ
possibly Philadelphia
Colorado

All come to mind and I bet their are a couple more.

I hope a team is dumb enough to give up assets for him. It's not a coincidence the Pens have new life since he got hurt and lost his job.

 

[Forge]

12 team no trade would make it tough. I don't know if he can quite get that to a full no trade by putting thought into it, but he wouldn't be far off.

 

[Empoleon8771]

Hes a cap dump

4 more years at 5M while being a crappy starter who folds every big game

Not a tradable asset unless sweetners are added

In Jarry's 5 years and ~230 games as a starter, he has a .912 save%, a 40.0 GSAA and basically a neutral GSAx, but that's because analytics think the Penguins are somehow good defensively. He's an average to slightly above average starter with warts, not a cap dump.

 

[hamzarocks]

In Jarry's 5 years and ~230 games as a starter, he has a .912 save%, a 40.0 GSAA and basically a neutral GSAx, but that's because analytics think the Penguins are somehow good defensively. He's an average to slightly above average starter with warts, not a cap dump.

He has a .903 and a 2.90 gaa this year and a -0.4 gsaa.

He is 28 and supposed to be in his prime. His play lost him his job and hes basically been shunned to the bench for hiw bad he was after a good start.

He has also always choked hard in playoffs (2021 isles series particularly)

He is a below average starter going forward who will be getting older and hasnt shown to be able to handle a starters workload *due to injuries mostly outside of 2022) and deliver come playoffs.

Not an attractive asset at all.

 

[Empoleon8771]

He has a .903 and a 2.90 gaa this year and a -0.4 gsaa.

And look at the caliber of team he is on.

He is 28 and supposed to be in his prime. His play lost him his job and hes basically been shunned to the bench for hiw bad he was after a good start.

What are you talking about "losing his job"? He didn't lose his job. The Penguins running with Nedjelkovic while he's on a hot run doesn't magically mean that Jarry "lost his job".

He has also always choked hard in playoffs (2021 isles series particularly)

He is a below average starter going forward who will be getting older and hasnt shown to be able to handle a starters workload *due to injuries mostly outside of 2022) and deliver come playoffs.

Not an attractive asset at all.

You've provided literally no support that he's a "below average starter". Statistically, the claim is completely wrong. How is a goalie who is having his worst career season at a -0.4 GSAA a "below average starter"?

Jarry has identical stats this year to Oettinger and better stats than Vasilevskiy. Are both of those guys "below average starters" as well?

 

[DrDangles]

He is a below average starter going forward who will be getting older

Yeah man that's how time works

 

[hamzarocks]

And look at the caliber of team he is on.



What are you talking about "losing his job"? He didn't lose his job. The Penguins running with Nedjelkovic while he's on a hot run doesn't magically mean that Jarry "lost his job".



You've provided literally no support that he's a "below average starter". Statistically, the claim is completely wrong. How is a goalie who is having his worst career season at a -0.4 GSAA a "below average starter"?

The Pens were a good team when he was an average/above average starter (2020ish to 2023ish period). This propped his numbers up, along with not being a 50-60 game starter generally.

Past year and half the pens defensively have taken a hit and aren't as good and his numbers have fallen off.

2022-2023 his numbers from Jan - Apr were:

22/23 : 9-8-3, .899 SV%

Then this year 2023-2024;

19-24-5 with a .903 SV%

When i think of an above average starter with warts in his game I think of a guy like a Frederik Andersen (2017-2020) who could put good numbers behind a bad defensive team, play a big work load but was a playoff disapointment

Jarry cant give you that type of workload, he has seen his game fall off with a below average to bad defensive team, showing he cant be a guy to bank on for a middle the pack/hopeful teams (Sabres, Sens, Wild, RedWings, Devils, Flyers etc) and on a contender with a good defense, still has major playoff worry/choking concerns

That makes him a bad piece to trade for imo for any actual contender and fringe playoff team. Only tanking/rebuilding teams may want him over his 4 year term but they wont want him unless a sweetner is provided

 

[SEALBound]

Hes a cap dump

4 more years at 5M while being a crappy starter who folds every big game

Not a tradable asset unless sweetners are added

Well Toronto would certainly be the expert on that front, so I guess we'll take your word for it.

 

[MetalheadPenguinsFan]

He ain’t worth a pile of used jock straps

 

[hamzarocks]

Well Toronto would certainly be the expert on that front, so I guess we'll take your word for it.

I dont get your post?

Samsonov has 1 year and then is a UFA

Woll makes 700K or so

If your point is Tavares he has 1 year left and then is a UFA

Pens have more long term contracts signed to underperforming players than the leafs

That might change if we extend Bertuzzi and domi at bad deals and they fall off. For now we really only have Tavares

 

[Empoleon8771]

I don't even think Jarry is a particularly special goalie, but this website has shown time and time again it just can't evaluate goalies logically. The reality with Jarry is that he has put up good overall numbers in pretty much every season as a starter, but has a massive problem with breaking down later in the season that has been a consistent trend of his career. That flaw is why teams should be leery of acquiring him, but calling him a cap dump is a gross exaggeration of the issue. He's an average-ish starter with warts.

Let's just put it this way, if Jarry is a cap dump then there are about 10-15 other goalies who are also cap dumps. There are 25 goalies making $4 million or more a season, where 3 of them have not played at all due to injuries (Price, Murray and Lehner) and 11 of which have had worse performances this year than Jarry (Oettinger, Korpisalo, Knight, Husso, Campbell, Petersen, Kuemper, Merzlikins, Grubauer, Gibson and Vasilevskiy). Vasilevskiy and Oettinger are clearly better and are just having down seasons, but the rest of them are all pretty clearly on Jarry's level or worse. If you lower the threshold to $3.4 million, that also adds guys like Samsonov, Georgiyev, Gustavsson, Allen and Fleury having worse seasons than Jarry.

Basically, you need to reevaluate your definition of a "cap dump" if over half of the goalies making notable money count as "cap dumps" to you. The reality is that goaltending league-wide kinda sucks right now, so even a guy with Jarry's major faults are still upgrades for at least 10+ teams in the NHL.

 

[hamzarocks]

I don't even think Jarry is a particularly special goalie, but this website has shown time and time again it just can't evaluate goalies logically. The reality with Jarry is that he has put up good overall numbers in pretty much every season as a starter, but has a massive problem with breaking down later in the season that has been a consistent trend of his career. That flaw is why teams should be leery of acquiring him, but calling him a cap dump is a gross exaggeration of the issue. He's an average-ish starter with warts.

Let's just put it this way, if Jarry is a cap dump then there are about 10-15 other goalies who are also cap dumps. There are 25 goalies making $4 million or more a season, where 3 of them have not played at all due to injuries (Price, Murray and Lehner) and 11 of which have had worse performances this year than Jarry (Oettinger, Korpisalo, Knight, Husso, Campbell, Petersen, Kuemper, Merzlikins, Grubauer, Gibson and Vasilevskiy).

Basically, you need to reevaluate your definition of a "cap dump" if over half of the goalies making notable money count as "cap dumps" to you.

From that listing the below are huge cap dumps

Gibson
Grubauer
Peterson (wasn't sean walker attached to dump him)
Korpisalo
Husso
Campbell
Kuemper
Merzilkins

Vasilevsky has a down year but is a hall of famer and top goalie of this generation. He has sustained history of being elite so he gets a pass

Oettinger is having a terrible year. Not sure what his contract status is, but his playoffs + strong play previously + youth make him an attractive asset still despite this year. Another bad season like this next year and his value tanks

A lot of goalies are cap dumps in the NHL which is why they are generally not traded for and mostly are just signed as a UFA

The first group of guys would require 50% retention to be dealt or require multiple assets attached based at full contract

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Pens falling for ned’s wild inconsistencies. Ned has just as much of a chance of being an AHL level goalie next year. Good shooting teams eat him up

 

[SomeDude]

Pens falling for ned’s wild inconsistencies. Ned has just as much of a chance of being an AHL level goalie next year. Good shooting teams eat him up

Bad shooting teams eat up Jarry this time of year. Ned has saved the season. Nobody expects him to be the next Tim Thomas, but you ride the hot goalie who doesn't wither under pressure.

 

[CraigBillington]

Yeah man that's how time works

Wait, slow down, point dexter

 

[Empoleon8771]

From that listing the below are huge cap dumps

Gibson
Grubauer
Petersom
Korpisalo
Husso
Campbell
Kuemper
Merzilkins

Vasilevsky has a down year but is a hall of famer and top goalie of this generation. He has sustained history of being elite so he gets a pass

Oettinger is having a terrible year. Not sure what his contract status is, but his playoffs + strong play previously + youth make him an attractive asset still despite this year. Another bad season like this next year and his value tanks

A lot of goalies are cap dumps in the NHL which is why they are generally not traded for and mostly are just signed as a UFA

Like I said, I think you need to reevaluate your definition of a "cap dump" if a major percentage of goalies making any sort of money count as "cap dumps" to you.

The reality is that goaltending league-wide sucks right now, so even a guy with Jarry's major faults are still valued and upgrades for multiple teams. Jarry is still an upgrade on the goaltending situations for multiple teams either in the playoffs (Colorado, Toronto, Washington, Edmonton and Philly stand out) or just on the fringes of the playoffs (Minnesota, New Jersey, Detroit and maybe Seattle depending on opinions on Daccord), just because a lot of teams have really shitty goaltending situations right now.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Bad shooting teams eat up Jarry this time of year. Ned has saved the season. Nobody expects him to be the next Tim Thomas, but you ride the hot goalie who doesn't wither under pressure.

Ned withers. Seen it plenty

 

[SomeDude]

Ned withers. Seen it plenty

Cool. He hasn't for us while Jarry has **** the bed every opportunity he's been given when it matters.

 

[66-30-33]

Hes a cap dump

4 more years at 5M while being a crappy starter who folds every big game

Not a tradable asset unless sweetners are added

He only sucks post ASG.