GDT: WCSF | GM5 | Colorado Avalanche at Dallas Stars | 7:00PM CT | ESPN

[Blindsummit]

This graphic went up on the TV after the Avs went up 3-1 on the Jets in Round 1: it said something along the lines of 90% (give or take a percentage point) of the teams who go up 3-1 in a Best of 7 series go on to win that series. So there's a roughly 10% chance those who are down 3-1 can come back and win.

From a purely objective standpoint, your statement of "No way is this series over" is correct. However, after watching the first 4 games of this series, do you really think Dallas won't close it out? Maybe they don't tonight (though I suspect they do), but I have seen absolutely nothing from Colorado that would even begin to indicate that they possess the ability and mental fortitude to claw their way back from this 3-1 deficit.

I would be more than happy for you to be proven 100% correct, trust me!

 

[RockLobster]

it’s unlikely but I get where Blindsummit is coming from. You don’t want to get too confident, especially when you’re playing a team who won it all a couple years ago. At the end of the day the Avs have elite game changers on their team whereas Dallas has deeper depth. Sometimes those elite game changers can go on a tear and change the series in an instant. Especially when they feel like they have nothing to lose now being down 3-1.

This isn't the same Colorado team who won it all in 2022.

Their goaltending is weaker (and I harped A LOT on Keumper in that playoff, guy let in some junk goals, but in the end he made the stops that he had to make that put them in a position to beat Tampa), Kadri produced at a 1C rate that entire year, Nathan MacKinnon was dominant in R1, a bit more human in R2, got back to humming along in R3, and the team was firing on all cylinders in the Cup Final, they don't have Landeskog and actually HAVEN'T had him since that Cup Final...his knee issue (which coincidentally enough started in the Bubble, against Dallas) got worse that year, he had the cleanup surgery that ended his regular season, played in all playoff games but didn't practice nor did he do morning skate, and then after the final he's not been able to play again, etc.

I'm not meaning to type this out to take away from what Dallas has done, because once again DeBoer has neutered the Jared Bednar Avalanche team. He's gameplanned perfectly for them and has his team executing that plan with precision. Dallas wholly deserves to be up 3-1, and I'd say there could be an argument made that they should have swept them. They've been streets ahead.

I'm just saying that this isn't the 2022 Cup Champ team. Yeah they still have MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Makar, but DeBoer has done a good job taking their time and space away, and has basically dared the rest of the lineup to beat Dallas, and aside from G1, it hasn't happened.

And I don't suspect a switch will suddenly flip.

 

[Satan]

LOL no he doesn't. Hintz, from what I've been told by a close Stars friend of mine, hasn't been all that right in this playoff.

Nichushkin was leading the playoffs in goals. The two at this moment in time were not the same.

Now, Nichushkin being out isn't an excuse for the Avs, because even when he was in the whole team was playing quite poorly. They simply have not been good enough at all, save for period 2 of Game 1, and the opening of Game 3. Outside of that, they just have straight-up been not good enough at all.

nuh-uhh......my teams problem is worse than your teams problem!!!

no bias at all!!

trust me!

 

[MBTendy]

This isn't the same Colorado team who won it all in 2022.

Their goaltending is weaker (and I harped A LOT on Keumper in that playoff, guy let in some junk goals, but in the end he made the stops that he had to make that put them in a position to beat Tampa), Kadri produced at a 1C rate that entire year, Nathan MacKinnon was dominant in R1, a bit more human in R2, got back to humming along in R3, and the team was firing on all cylinders in the Cup Final, they don't have Landeskog and actually HAVEN'T had him since that Cup Final...his knee issue (which coincidentally enough started in the Bubble, against Dallas) got worse that year, he had the cleanup surgery that ended his regular season, played in all playoff games but didn't practice nor did he do morning skate, and then after the final he's not been able to play again, etc.

I'm not meaning to type this out to take away from what Dallas has done, because once again DeBoer has neutered the Jared Bednar Avalanche team. He's gameplanned perfectly for them and has his team executing that plan with precision. Dallas wholly deserves to be up 3-1, and I'd say there could be an argument made that they should have swept them. They've been streets ahead.

I'm just saying that this isn't the 2022 Cup Champ team. Yeah they still have MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Makar, but DeBoer has done a good job taking their time and space away, and has basically dared the rest of the lineup to beat Dallas, and aside from G1, it hasn't happened.

And I don't suspect a switch will suddenly flip.

Very fair. Again I think it has to do more with not getting ahead of ourselves just because as we’ve seen in the NHL playoffs, 2-3 game leads in a series have been blown a lot more than they used to.

I hope you are right for the Stars’ sake haha. 25 years since their last cup win is too long.

As long as y’all have Makar, Mack and Rantanen, they will always worry me. Sure it’s unlikely they come back in the series, but stranger things have happened with teams that have a lot less star power than your team has.

 

[RockLobster]

I'll just add again--I won't necessarily be shocked if Colorado somehow wins tonight, nor will I be shocked if Dallas wins (whether it's close or another curb stomping).

I will be shocked if Colorado somehow gets this to a Game 7. I just do not see how that is possible at all. Dallas would have to completely abandon the gameplan that has been working for them all series long.

 

[Spilot23]

Eh, Stars lose their #1C. They also lose one of their only good skaters in the process as well as one of their best defensive forwards and best playoff performers. It's a big loss. Now we have to probably watch Pavelski go out there against MacKinnon/Makar even more. Hintz was looking much better in this series than the last

Nichushkin is a big loss as well, but the Avs superstars can still do their thing without him. Especially now that they got Drouin back.

In the end, one team is down a 1C and the other is down a top line winger.

Not to mention Hintz was outscoring Nichushkin in this series anyways

Also on the bright side Avs are undefeated against Dallas this series when Faksa plays. I wouldn't feel well if I was a Stars fan

 

[MrHeiskanen]

Saying losing Hintz isn't like losing Nichushkin in something. Can't say I'm surprised tho. Hopefully one more GDT and we can move along, although I suppose Edmonton or Vancouver won't be any better.

 

[D Wakaluk]

Why did the Avs big bois just give up? Straight up moping last game, was very weird to see. I understand the crushing blow of losing Val (and Toews last game) - but .. to not even try..?

 

[eartotheground]

Why did the Avs big bois just give up? Straight up moping last game, was very weird to see. I understand the crushing blow of losing Val (and Toews last game) - but .. to not even try..?

when you invest a lot into someone, and are counting on them, and they burn you it's one thing. but when they burn you repeatedly and in big ways it can be incredibly challenging to get over.

end of the day they're humans, not video game pixels.

 

[RockLobster]

Why did the Avs big bois just give up? Straight up moping last game, was very weird to see. I understand the crushing blow of losing Val (and Toews last game) - but .. to not even try..?

People outside of Denver have always underrated the effect Gabe Landeskog has on this team. I think not having him last season or this has really amplified what he means to the team.

Personally, I've always been one of his biggest fans (obviously). And when it looked like Joe was gonna blow up the core, and his name was in trade rumors, I was hoping they wouldn't do it. Some guys legitimately DO have those intangibles that just are hard to quantify with numbers.

Again, you look at what he sacrificed for the Cup win in 2022. He got that knee surgery cleanup that ended his regular season, he came back for G1 of the playoffs, played in every game but did not practice nor morning skate. He scored the first goal of the Cup Finals in G1, he was used in all his situations, he deflected that shot from Kucherov in G6 that broke his skate blade and was vigorously crawling back to the ice, told MacKinnon to straight up leave him.

He did all of that on what turned out to be a horrendously bum knee. He hasn't played a game of hockey since then, and while us Avs fans hope this surgery works out for him, it's so relatively new to athletes that there's not a lot of data on it. I have no doubt he'll play again, most likely at the start of next year, but I do have legitimate concerns as to whether he'll be the same type of player.

But he's just the type of guy that I think helps calm a room down and gets players to buy in and be on the same page. MacKinnon isn't that type of leader, Mikko isn't, nor is Makar. Landeskog is that ultimate team/glue guy. And I think the Avalanche just haven't been the same without him.

 

[ManofSteel55]

It will be interesting to see if Colorado can respond. I don't blame them for coming out poorly last game after the Nichushkin situation, but they've had some time to process. Here's hoping that they've found a spark.

 

[Unspecified]

So "paper tigers" eh? The spirits of Dimebag and Vinnie will guide us to victory and to Valhalla

 

[NOTENOUGHRYJOTHINGS]

Do paper tigers play with their food?

The biggest danger Dallas has faced from the Avs is sun burn from the goal light.

After a hard fought seven game series vs Vegas the Stars deserve a vacation. And they're getting one vs the Aves.

I can't see this going more than 5 shifts without Dallas taking the lead and Benn making a massive hit on an Aves top player to set the tone that there's no come back coming. Dallas gets 2 goals early and locks down the game. Aves look lifeless until a third period PP where Makar rings one off the post.

Final score 3 to 0 after an ENG.

The better team wins this one.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Nikushkin should be renamed to Nidouchekin. Screws over his own team for 2 straight playoffs.

 

[BaconNater]

I think Dallas should be ashamed letting it get this far even, not a good look for them!!

 

[Spilot23]

Why did the Avs big bois just give up? Straight up moping last game, was very weird to see. I understand the crushing blow of losing Val (and Toews last game) - but .. to not even try..?

Mackinnon sometimes looked like he was giving up and I didn't like his body language. I think Rantanen has been a passenger these playoffs beside game 5 against Jets. But as some of your fans requested you gotta prop up Dallas for their play against them. Mack has trouble entering the zone same goes for our PP. They just don't give the blue line.

 

[AslanRH]

Hintz cancels out Nichushkin being out now. No excuses for the Avs

Is this perceived lack of credit thing really this big in Dallas as a whole, or just on here?

Can't seem to go a page without seeing some mention of excuses being made, performances ignored or accomplishments being overlooked.

 

[Satan]

Nikushkin should be renamed to Nidouchekin. Screws over his own team for 2 straight playoffs.

very creative! well done, thank you

 

[Kranix]

LOL no he doesn't. Hintz, from what I've been told by a close Stars friend of mine, hasn't been all that right in this playoff.

Nichushkin was leading the playoffs in goals. The two at this moment in time were not the same.

Now, Nichushkin being out isn't an excuse for the Avs, because even when he was in the whole team was playing quite poorly. They simply have not been good enough at all, save for period 2 of Game 1, and the opening of Game 3. Outside of that, they just have straight-up been not good enough at all.

Pretty sure Hintz is always playing injured.

 

[Elysian]

"We deserve it" LOL wtf?

What's the problem? We do

 

[BoxOfChocolates]

Is this perceived lack of credit thing really this big in Dallas as a whole, or just on here?

Can't seem to go a page without seeing some mention of excuses being made, performances ignored or accomplishments being overlooked.

Insecure bunch it seems like

 

[oconnor9sean]

Dallas is the better team overall and deserves their 3-1 lead, but I hate how many are considering Colorado completely dead. I fully expect a multi-point effort from their big 3 tonight.

Whether it's enough to win the game is another thing, because Colorado doesn't have the depth to match up with Dallas, especially when the Stars have the last change.

Gimme 4-3 Stars in OT.

 

[Tralfamadore]

Zero faith in the Avs stars. Rest of the team is bleh.

 

[Spender]

7-1 Avs in this one

 

[twostroke2023]

Blowout for Avs tonight, close win in Denver for the Avs, 5-2 Avs in Dallas to finish them off. Avs in 7. Save the post.