When does the Yzerplan start getting criticized?

[WarriorofTime]

It's truly amazing how thoughtful and circumspect you are on ASP as opposed to other Wings prospects. Such a coincidence that the one who scored at a near historic level as a pro has a lot of questions and is a really hard evaluation, but the Wings prospect who turned 20 two weeks ago is a disappointment based on his AHL production.

“Near historic”

What does this even mean? lol. He was half a point a game in the Swedish top league. He had a good season. We will see where he goes from here. Quit the whining.

 

[schuelma24]

“Near historic”

What does this even mean? lol. He was half a point a game in the Swedish top league. He had a good season. We will see where he goes from here. Quit the whining.

He was a goal away from setting the SHL U19 goal record for a defenseman and would likely easily have set it if he hadn't missed a month after his injury at the Worlds.

 

[nbwingsfan]

A ridiculous one IMO. I won't get into the nitty-gritty of it all because I don't care to but 5 straight misses and the nearest one being in the most pathetic playoff race the East has seen in a while isn't a good record. And they don't even look like they'll be more dangerous next year.

The Wings in 2020 were even worse than the Sharks this season. IIRC they were on pace to be the worst team since the expansion teams.

So yeah, they were closer to a 90s expansion team than to your run of the mill bad hockey team

 

[WarriorofTime]

He was a goal away from setting the SHL U19 goal record for a defenseman and would likely easily have set it if he hadn't missed a month after his injury at the Worlds.

That’s great. What am I supposed to glean from that?

 

[schuelma24]

That’s great. What am I supposed to glean from that?

What are we supposed to glean from anything I suppose. I guess it's all meaningless and speculative*

*Unless we're talking Wings center prospects and how little or much they score.

 

[WarriorofTime]

What are we supposed to glean from anything I suppose. I guess it's all meaningless and speculative*

*Unless we're talking Wings center prospects and how little or much they score.

I don’t even remember talking about Kasper. Other than pointing out the wicked double standard.

 

[MNRube]

The most recent re draft I could find published a few months ago has Kasper at #9 with Denton Mateychuk (D) bumping up to #8. Maybe it's because Kasper is NHL ready right now. He could step in the NHL top 9 today and be a + player. Yzerman is marinating him slowly in the AHL and Kasper had a fine second half. His first half is what people like you are referring to, for good reason, because he was still recovering from injury and adjusting to NA ice.

Kasper is in the playoffs right now and was one of the better guys on the ice in last night's win.

I don't think scouts are as high on Yurov as you. Maybe it's the Russian factor.



I think your examples are biased. Because the most recent redraft doesn't support your claim.

You know your argument is flimsy when you are referring to the mysterious “most recent redraft” from an unnamed publication and then tossing out the “one of the better players on the ice”

 

[ricky0034]

Regardless of whether you think Yzerman is good or bad, one thing that's for sure, Red Wings have taken the mantle from Ottawa fans by far as being the biggest homers about how all their guys stack up around the League. This Dotter guy in particular is quite the character with some of these takes.

as a Wings fan I keep hoping that people will stop constantly bumping this thread because the secondhand embarrassment is pretty intense but I just can't stop myself from looking

I wonder if this is what it feels like to be a Leafs fan

 

[Ezekial]

as a Wings fan I keep hoping that people will stop constantly bumping this thread because the secondhand embarrassment is pretty intense but I just can't stop myself from looking

I wonder if this is what it feels like to be a Leafs fan

We get it bro, you're "one of the good ones"

 

[Miller Time]

If they sneaked in this year, would your posts be any different?

Are you asking if results/outcomes play a role assessing the relative success of a plan?

I would think the answer is self-evident

& To be clear, no one metric or result, short of winning a cup, is definitive... Not a single playoff game after 4 seasons/5 offseasons is what it is

72 games for the worst team in the league putting up just over 20pts? What a STAR.

Zadina won’t be in the NHL long at all.

Star? That's pretty exaggerated. Almost as stupid as suggesting that a guy who played 72 of 82 games, missing 10 games solely to injury, "struggled to get in the lineup"

 

[nbwingsfan]

Are you asking if results/outcomes play a role assessing the relative success of a plan?

I would think the answer is self-evident

& To be clear, no one metric or result, short of winning a cup, is definitive... Not a single playoff game after 4 seasons/5 offseasons is what it is



Star? That's pretty exaggerated. Almost as stupid as suggesting that a guy who played 72 of 82 games, missing 10 games solely to injury, "struggled to get in the lineup"

I never once said he struggled to get into the lineup.

I said he will be out of the NHL soon, as most bad players who perform very badly on bad teams do.

 

[cvaicunas]

I agree with the gist of your post, but those moves remind me of why I'm not that enamored with Yzerman's work in Detroit so far (though I do think he's a good GM overall). A lot of "1 step forward, 1 step back" moves.

- Mantha might be a flop, but he's a whole lot more valuable than Vrana, a guy nobody picked up when Yzerman put him on waivers, on top of swallowing the Panik cap dump. Of course, the picks offset that difference, so it's a decent trade overall. But then Yzerman packages that 1st rounder with a few others to move up in the draft to get Cossa at 15. Dallas uses the original pick to draft Wyatt Johnston instead. I dunno, even if you're a big Cossa believer, that doesn't seem like SY's best sequence of moves.

- Yzerman gives up a bunch of assets to get Debrincat's rights, which is fine. But he then proceeds to significantly overpay him. 8M for an undersized 65-70 pts scorer who's useless when not producing? At least he didn't give him term.

- Trading away a young top-4 Dman for a mid-range 1st rounder when your defence is as dire as Detroit's seems questionable to me. Maybe ASP will be a top-4 Dman in 5 years, but it's far from guaranteed.

And that's ignoring more minor trades that didn't quite work out, like giving up assets for the corpses of Jeff Petry and Nick Leddy, or swallowing Yamamoto's contract for Klim Kostin, who does nothing in Detroit. Of course it's easy to forgive this stuff when the team is bad, there's no expectations and the team has plenty of picks and cap space to leverage into assets. But still it gives the impression that Yzerman's pro scouting in Detroit is weaker than his amateur scouting, and that will matter more and more as the team moves out of the rebuild phase.

He traded Leddy for a 2nd round pick, Walman, and Sundqvist. Leddy's arrival and trade were a win for Yzerman, not a loss.

 

[Icebreakers]

I still think Stevie Y is that guy. But the Wings do need to start gaining some traction as an organization. Probably two years before the water starts getting hot.

Drafting Cossa over Wallstedt made me raise an eyebrow, though.

Cossa outplayed Wallstedt in thebahl this year.

 

[Miller Time]

.I never once said he struggled to get into the lineup.

No, but you replied to a post that was a direct response to that asinine comment... Making your own silly comment in the process.

To what purpose, I have no clue.

I said he will be out of the NHL soon, as most bad players who perform very badly on bad teams do.

Sure. And?

No idea who or what you are arguing about.

 

[cvaicunas]

Kasper's production is historically low for 19 year olds who played most of their whole season in the AHL, especially those in their DY+2. If he doesn't drastically improve next seasons, his odds of even sticking in the NHL are low.

@OgeeOgelthorpe made a post at some point highlighting the decreased scoring in the AHL over this year? Or perhaps the last several years? I have a hard time believing it's historically low, but if you have the data to back that up.

 

[cvaicunas]

Outsider here so dont jump down my throat too hard

I thought the Hronek move was smart. Get a mid round pick (ASP) in a stacked draft plus a 2nd for a player they can't afford with Seider.... reset cap and assets and double up in the draft after a failed season is exactly what i want my GM to do.

Seider was a brilliant pick that had a few jaws dropped at the time. Raymond is a excellent core piece. The rest are still in the developing phase. Edvinsson i wasn't a huge fan of his IQ but that skating and athletic package if he puts the pieces together will be a massive shut down piece and SY is doing the right thing to get his defense and goaltending prioritized through the draft as nobody gives up #1 D or Top shut down pair guys or top starting goalies in their primes.

Personally i would have preferred Wallstedt at the time and Kasper seemed too high for his upside but lots to still be realized from those picks so it's not worth criticizing too much from a GMs perspective.

Pro scouting signings are too much term and money for 2nd and 3rd tier players. May not have been a huge issue yet but if the idea is to be competitive which it obviously is when your targeting Kane Perron etc your handcuffing your ability to add impact players. Yzerman needs to be more shrewd going forward to avoid the Chiarot Holl Copp type deals

I think he's doing a good job just needs to clean up some of the mistakes if Larkin is going to be involved in being a contender

Personally I wonder if some of those contracts were necessitated by the rebuilding nature of the team. Completely unsubstantiated of course, but perhaps it was necessary to lure FA to sign.

 

[GMR]

Are you asking if results/outcomes play a role assessing the relative success of a plan?

I would think the answer is self-evident

& To be clear, no one metric or result, short of winning a cup, is definitive... Not a single playoff game after 4 seasons/5 offseasons is what it is



Star? That's pretty exaggerated. Almost as stupid as suggesting that a guy who played 72 of 82 games, missing 10 games solely to injury, "struggled to get in the lineup"

My point is they weren’t expected to contend this season or any of the seasons before. The consensus this year was they’d be battling for the final playoff spot. If they made it this year they would have been pasted by the higher seeds. Just like Washington and NYI are. Those teams are on the same level as Detroit with a worse looking future. Pittsburgh is also facing a grim outlook. Making the playoffs this season wouldn’t change that this team isn’t ready to compete with the top teams.

The main goal is to contend. And not just for one or two years. We’re still several seasons from finding out whether this team can consistently contend.

This thread was started too soon.

 

[ricky0034]

We get it bro, you're "one of the good ones"

if that's what you want to call thinking multiple page rants in response to someone disagreeing that a Wings prospect is the best in their draft class are cringy then sure I suppose I am

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

@OgeeOgelthorpe made a post at some point highlighting the decreased scoring in the AHL over this year? Or perhaps the last several years? I have a hard time believing it's historically low, but if you have the data to back that up.

The AHL website is kind of trash, but here's scoring for this year and you can scroll through previous years.
AHL Scoring Leaders 2023-2024

TheAHL.com | The American Hockey League

AHL - Standings, Teams, Games, Scores, Stats & More

As a small example, there were 7174 goals scored in the AHL in 2022-23. An average of 3.11 per game per team. Only 16 teams scored at or above that average.
There were 6982 goals scored in the AHL in 2023-24. A difference of 192 and an average of 3.03 goals per game per team. 18 teams scored at or above that average.
There were 6908 goals scored in the AHL in 2021-22. Average of 3.08 goals per game per team. 16 teams were at or above that average.

I don't know if it's historically low, but the AHL is looking like 2003-04 DPE era NHL right now. 4 of the guys in the top 10 scoring being at or above a point per game and only 15 in the whole damn league (small sample sizes included). Only 7 players in the league with 30 or more goals. 62 total with 20 or more goals. Compare that to 10 years ago there were 24 players across all sample sizes with 1.00 ppg or higher. It's not a very offensive league.

 

[cvaicunas]

The AHL website is kind of trash, but here's scoring for this year and you can scroll through previous years.
AHL Scoring Leaders 2023-2024

TheAHL.com | The American Hockey League

AHL - Standings, Teams, Games, Scores, Stats & More

As a small example, there were 7174 goals scored in the AHL in 2022-23. An average of 3.11 per game per team. Only 16 teams scored at or above that average.
There were 6982 goals scored in the AHL in 2023-24. A difference of 192 and an average of 3.03 goals per game per team. 18 teams scored at or above that average.
There were 6908 goals scored in the AHL in 2021-22. Average of 3.08 goals per game per team. 16 teams were at or above that average.

I don't know if it's historically low, but the AHL is looking like 2003-04 DPE era NHL right now. 4 of the guys in the top 10 scoring being at or above a point per game and only 15 in the whole damn league (small sample sizes included). Only 7 players in the league with 30 or more goals. 62 total with 20 or more goals. Compare that to 10 years ago there were 24 players across all sample sizes with 1.00 ppg or higher. It's not a very offensive league.

That's the statement I remembered. Thanks for clearing that up

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

He traded Leddy for a 2nd round pick, Walman, and Sundqvist. Leddy's arrival and trade were a win for Yzerman, not a loss.

Don,t get me wrong, the Leddy exit trade was excellent, because they correctly identified Walman as a guy with potential. Hell this is probably Yzerman's best trade in Detroit. But giving up a 2nd for Leddy in the first place was still a poor trade. If anything, he should have gotten a 2nd for taking on that contract. Leddy was bad in Detroit, and Yzerman had to retain 50% of his 5.5M contract to get rid of him, for another, smaller cap dump in Sundqvist. The great move was to leverage taking on the extra cap into a couple of throw-in, one of which turned out great.

Then again Leddy has looked decent in St. Louis, so maybe this was one of those fabled "win-win" trades.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

That's the statement I remembered. Thanks for clearing that up

My point about that is, it's less about point totals for the players and more about point placements. Being the 4th highest scorer on your team in your rookie season is realgud in any year. Especially when you consider 70% of those points came in the second half.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Don,t get me wrong, the Leddy exit trade was excellent, because they correctly identified Walman as a guy with potential. Hell this is probably Yzerman's best trade in Detroit. But giving up a 2nd for Leddy in the first place was still a poor trade. If anything, he should have gotten a 2nd for taking on that contract. Leddy was bad in Detroit, and Yzerman had to retain 50% of his 5.5M contract to get rid of him, for another, smaller cap dump in Sundqvist. The great move was to leverage taking on the extra cap into a couple of throw-in, one of which turned out great.

Then again Leddy has looked decent in St. Louis, so maybe this was one of those fabled "win-win" trades.

This is false.

Leddy was the #3 defenseman in Detroit. Trading a 2nd for a a #3 defender is about market value at the draft. And Detroit was able to get an even more valuable 2nd round pick PLUS Walman and Sundqvist back the very next year. I don't see how this was a bad trade at all for Yzerman. This was an absolute win. That Leddy retention was just for the remainder of the 2021-22 season at the trade deadline.

Let's look at this trade tree.

NYI trades Nick Leddy to Detroit for the #52 overall pick in 2021 at the draft.

Detroit trades Leddy @ 50% retention to St. Louis at the 2022 trade deadline for Jake Walman, Oskar Sundqvist, 2023 2nd (Andrew Gibson, who just signed his ELC today.)

Detroit trades Oskar Sundqvist to Minnesota for a 4th round pick in 2023. (Larry Keenan. A nothing prospect)

So...Yzerman turned the #52 overall pick in 2021 into Walman, a pretty solid defender, the #42 pick in 2023 and #117 pick in 2023. That's a good trade any day.

 

[Miller Time]

My point is they weren’t expected to contend this season or any of the seasons before. The consensus this year was they’d be battling for the final playoff spot. If they made it this year they would have been pasted by the higher seeds. Just like Washington and NYI are. Those teams are on the same level as Detroit with a worse looking future. Pittsburgh is also facing a grim outlook. Making the playoffs this season wouldn’t change that this team isn’t ready to compete with the top teams.

The main goal is to contend. And not just for one or two years. We’re still several seasons from finding out whether this team can consistently contend.

This thread was started too soon.

I hear you.

Just disagree with the last sentence.

If 4 seasons/5 offseasons is "too early" to start assessing the quality of a rebuild plan, then I have to ask what a reasonable timeframe is?

That a case can be made that this has been a mediocre rebuild, thus far, doesn't mean it's a failure.
Doesn't mean there isn't reason for optimism.
Doesn't mean Yzerman should be fired.

It's just pointing out something that I suspect he believes himself... The on ice results are disappointing.

A question back to you...

How many more seasons of no playoffs would suffice before it would be fair to question the merit/quality of the plan initiated 5 years ago?

1? 2? Another 5 years?

The quality prospect pool in place will only be that much stronger after this draft. Even moreso if again next year they are in the lottery... so one could keep delaying an assessment of the plan in perpetuity, pointing always to this future potential.

 

[Dotter]

How many more seasons of no playoffs would suffice before it would be fair to question the merit/quality of the plan initiated 5 years ago?

1? 2? Another 5 years?

The quality prospect pool in place will only be that much stronger after this draft. Even moreso if again next year they are in the lottery... so one could keep delaying an assessment of the plan in perpetuity, pointing always to this future potential.

2 years. Wings are developing their center depth in Danielsson (#1B centerman) behind Larkin and Kasper (#3 center).

They have good goaltending coming up. Fabulous Dmen. Some gritty forwards on their way up. Plus whatever Yzerman decides to hose out other GMs in trades. I also suspect Yzerman will upgrade the coaching staff after Laldone's contract.