Who are the "big fish" for trade deadline this year?

[OMG67]

Does Owen sound consider dealing Barlow? If so I think that could be the wild card deal that some people didn’t see coming. If Owen sound isn’t gonna be buyers I think they’d be smart to cash in on Barlow seeing as he’s probably not back next year

There will be a lot of questions like this. So many teams are “in it,” yet so many of them can’t really buy. Then there are the teams that should be in it but are only just average. Then there are the average teams looking at the market and thinking, “Are we really out of it? We may have a chance.”

To me, the ONLY team 100% buying is Saginaw. The ONLY team 100% selling is Peterborough. Every other team is in some form of internal assessment and seemingly waiting for the rest of the league to decide what they are going to do before they decide what to do.

I think we are going to need to see one ”other” team decide to sell and one “other” team emerge as a buyer. Once that happens, I think he market will heat up and teams will start to make decisions on strategy. I think most teams are holding out not wanting to be too quick and end up making the wrong decision.

 

[SSMHoundsFan]

There will be a lot of questions like this. So many teams are “in it,” yet so many of them can’t really buy. Then there are the teams that should be in it but are only just average. Then there are the average teams looking at the market and thinking, “Are we really out of it? We may have a chance.”

To me, the ONLY team 100% buying is Saginaw. The ONLY team 100% selling is Peterborough. Every other team is in some form of internal assessment and seemingly waiting for the rest of the league to decide what they are going to do before they decide what to do.

I think we are going to need to see one ”other” team decide to sell and one “other” team emerge as a buyer. Once that happens, I think he market will heat up and teams will start to make decisions on strategy. I think most teams are holding out not wanting to be too quick and end up making the wrong decision.

I think most teams are waiting it out until Christmas to make the decision as to where they want their team to be, obviously Saginaw has been the only one making moves this early on but that was more out of desperation due to the funk they fell into more than anything I think albeit the trades would have been made anyways

Alot of teams are getting an idea of what they need to reach that next level if they are buying, they're just waiting for the right to commit to selling which I think is the situation at least in the Sault

 

[HockeyPops]

To me, the ONLY team 100% buying is Saginaw. The ONLY team 100% selling is Peterborough.

I get what you are saying, but I think there are a couple more teams that have already shown their hand based on moves already made:

Buyers:
Saginaw
Sudbury

Sellers:
Peterborough
Windsor
Sarnia

 

[SSMHoundsFan]

I get what you are saying, but I think there are a couple more teams that have already shown their hand based on moves already made:

Buyers:
Saginaw
Sudbury

Sellers:
Peterborough
Windsor
Sarnia

I think we need a 'Probably Buyers' and 'Probably Sellers' category however these would be completely subjective based on the opinions of fans

 

[dirty12]

Missy is such a wildcard. Team is totally not ready this year but they have an OA spot open. Plus, with so many returning players (21), and so many draft picks, I’d love to be a fly on that wall during strategy discussions. I can honestly see them nibble at the fringes come the deadline in an effort to push this team into at least a Conference Final.

I would not be surprised by the addition of Mayer or Punnett. They traded Schwindt before playing a game.

 

[dirty12]

There will be big buyers and small buyers and selller/buyer, no question. Should Sudbury & Saginaw decide they’ve bought enough, it opens the door for SSM & Miss to get what they feel they need , and Flint & Kingston to buy large.

 

[ColtsNLeafs]

With Windsor relieving their HC today that's now 5 coaches fired and we aren't even halfway through the season....Can't recall this ever before?

 

[HF92]

I get what you are saying, but I think there are a couple more teams that have already shown their hand based on moves already made:

Buyers:
Saginaw
Sudbury

Sellers:
Peterborough
Windsor
Sarnia

Soo will be buyers

 

[Kingpin794]

With Windsor relieving their HC today that's now 5 coaches fired and we aren't even halfway through the season....Can't recall this ever before?

A few of them were on short leashes to began with. Dent had a lack luster season in 22/23 and they weren't responding to him to start. Same idea with Caputi. He lost the room a while ago. Windsor was on edge after the early exit last year. Niagara is...well...Niagara. The only one that was really out of left field was Owen Sound.

 

[Noofgoof]

A few of them were on short leashes to began with. Dent had a lack luster season in 22/23 and they weren't responding to him to start. Same idea with Caputi. He lost the room a while ago. Windsor was on edge after the early exit last year. Niagara is...well...Niagara. The only one that was really out of left field was Owen Sound.

Owen Sound was out of left field only because it was 7 or 8 games in with a winning record. Many fans thought it was a possibility in the off season so it wasn't totally shocking

 

[OMG67]

Soo will be buyers

To what degree? Do you think it will be an ALL-IN scenario or do they add one decent piece and tinker for the rest?

 

[HockeyPops]

Soo hasn't really gone all in under Raftis. Closest was probably 2017-2018 bringing in Raddysh/Sambrook and shipping out their 16 year old first rounder (Fowler). But they still didn't empty the cupboards that year and they only rostered 2 OAs after the flyer trade for Tammela didn't work out.

 

[SSMHoundsFan]

To what degree? Do you think it will be an ALL-IN scenario or do they add one decent piece and tinker for the rest?

I think the ideal situation is splurging on a solid goaltender like Dom from NB for example and then tinkered with adding maybe a veteran Forward and D man...I can't see us being in the Beck sweepstakes

 

[EvenSteven]

What if Beck decides he doesn’t want to move? Wants to go on a run again with the Petes instead?

Then if they are eliminated earlier than if he was traded to a top contender, he steps into Laval’s lineup for the rest of the season?

Can’t argue it may be in the back of his mind. Memorial Cup? Been there done that.

Also, there’s no evidence thus far that the Petes are selling. Outside of moving out excess OA’s, they've done nothing yet.

 

[HockeyPops]

I think it's more the quality of OAs that Peterborough has moved already that tips their hand.

 

[OMG67]

What if Beck decides he doesn’t want to move? Wants to go on a run again with the Petes instead?

Then if they are eliminated earlier than if he was traded to a top contender, he steps into Laval’s lineup for the rest of the season?

Can’t argue it may be in the back of his mind. Memorial Cup? Been there done that.

Also, there’s no evidence thus far that the Petes are selling. Outside of moving out excess OA’s, they've done nothing yet.

You don’t trade your OHL Championship goaltender and expect to go on another run, especially when that goalie is the biggest reason they managed to push it over the line. He was stellar last year.

They kept Dubois and Gauvreau ahead of both Lockhart and simpson? No offence to Dubois becuase he did have the hot start but if they were thinning out their OA’s and keeping their top 3, it would have been Simpson, Lockhart and Mayer. Dubois and Gauvreau would have been moved. Any team seriously thinking of contending doesn’t trade off two of their top three guys.

2024	---	---	---	5th OSH 5th
2025	---	KGN 3rd LDN 3rd	---	---
2026	---	---	---	5th
2027	2nd	3rd	4th	5th OSH 5th

Petes have relatively little to work with for picks. They already traded away their ‘05s that have significant value. Bowen and McCue are the only ones that would have positive value next year on the trade market and neither are stars that would garner picks that would move the needle. Their ‘06s are really weak as well.

Unless the existing GM is poised to move on after this season and not care about what he leaves behind for the next guy, it would be beyond irresponsible to do anything other than sell off to try to salvage something to rebuild with properly. The writing in on the wall in so many ways with respect to the Petes. Doing anything else would be reckless and would plunge that franchise into the depths of the league for a full cycle.

Imagine they try to make a push and clear out their remaining picks. They go into next season with no picks from 2024 through 2027 in the top 5 rounds (other than their 1sts). They have no tradable ‘05s and ‘06s that move the needle. No way of recouping the picks. It is a disaster scenario all around.

 

[OMG67]

I think the ideal situation is splurging on a solid goaltender like Dom from NB for example and then tinkered with adding maybe a veteran Forward and D man...I can't see us being in the Beck sweepstakes

I think almost all teams in the potential buyer category seem on the same page in that respect. Maybe splurge on a decent player a bit and nibble on the fringes.

This is why I am concerned that the Petes won’t get what they want for Beck. I think the total value will still be there but maybe not the pieces they are hoping for. What I mean by that is maybe they don’t get a quality prospect they want but they get extra picks instead. Same overall assessment value but they may not have enough leverage to get the type of pieces they want like they would have in the past few years.

I know they’d likely want a similar package to MacT….a 1st round 16y/o plus a couple 2nds and 3rds. Instead they may end up w8th a deal more like the Mintyukov deal last year with 7-9 picks. Still a great package but not what they prefer.

I really don’t see enough teams buying at the top of the market to force teams into uncomfortable deals.

 

[SSMHoundsFan]

I think almost all teams in the potential buyer category seem on the same page in that respect. Maybe splurge on a decent player a bit and nibble on the fringes.

This is why I am concerned that the Petes won’t get what they want for Beck. I think the total value will still be there but maybe not the pieces they are hoping for. What I mean by that is maybe they don’t get a quality prospect they want but they get extra picks instead. Same overall assessment value but they may not have enough leverage to get the type of pieces they want like they would have in the past few years.

I know they’d likely want a similar package to MacT….a 1st round 16y/o plus a couple 2nds and 3rds. Instead they may end up w8th a deal more like the Mintyukov deal last year with 7-9 picks. Still a great package but not what they prefer.

I really don’t see enough teams buying at the top of the market to force teams into uncomfortable deals.

I don't see anyone forking out 7-9 picks, no one has those assets to do that and reasonably be expected to make another move (unless Beck is the be all move of the season)...the former of those options is the most probable of scenarios

 

[OMG67]

I don't see anyone forking out 7-9 picks, no one has those assets to do that and reasonably be expected to make another move (unless Beck is the be all move of the season)...the former of those options is the most probable of scenarios

Saginaw could most certainly make that type of move. Three 2nds, two 3rds and two 4th is in their wheelhouse. They’d still be able to make another move or two. Missy and Sudbury would both easily be able to do it as well.

I agree that using the 16 year old is more ideal but those kids have no trade clauses and if they choose to not move and the other teams are willing to move their 16 year old 1st, they may have no choice but to go pick heavy.

The best case scenario is there are 4-5 teams lined up for Beck (like last year) but if only 2-3 are then that may make it harder for the Petes to craft the right return With the exact type of pieces they want.

 

[EvenSteven]

Saginaw could most certainly make that type of move. Three 2nds, two 3rds and two 4th is in their wheelhouse. They’d still be able to make another move or two. Missy and Sudbury would both easily be able to do it as well.

I agree that using the 16 year old is more ideal but those kids have no trade clauses and if they choose to not move and the other teams are willing to move their 16 year old 1st, they may have no choice but to go pick heavy.

The best case scenario is there are 4-5 teams lined up for Beck (like last year) but if only 2-3 are then that may make it harder for the Petes to craft the right return With the exact type of pieces they want.

Count Missy out. 13 month rule.

 

[OMG67]

Count Missy out. 13 month rule.

LOL. Yes. But I wasn’t thinking about Beck as the only player. The point was there are teams that if they chose to add players (Beck, Rehkopf, Nelson, Barlow etc), they could fork over 7-9 picks in the same manner as Ottawa adding Mintyukov last year. Take the same logic of Petes trading Beck and apply it to other teams like Owen Sound trading Barlow. I don’t think there are enough teams looking to buy that forces teams to use ‘07 first rounders ”IF” they either can't or won’t move them.

The market may end up demanding teams to accept pick heavy deals for the 2-3 most elite players that normally would end up being 16 year old 1st rounders plus a couple picks. Keep in mind, I am talking overall value being the same but the configuration not being as ideal.

Last year we saw Ottawa trade the 9 picks for Mintyukov and 6 picks for Morrison. That was in a sellers market. Ottawa stuck to their guns not wanting to trade Mews or Marrelli. They ended up ponying up in picks, a lot of them. Saginaw and Hamilton ended up having to accept it because the overall value was still very high, higher than the offers that included players.

With a market that “may” end up as a buyers market, the buyers may carry a bigger hammer in how the deal is configured while still providing a very solid package.

 

[DWI Dale]

Peterborough is still #1 in the East, #2 overall. Calling them sellers could be premature.

 

[SSMHoundsFan]

Peterborough is still #1 in the East, #2 overall. Calling them sellers could be premature.

It's the same logic with Kitchener, both Peterborough and Kitchener need to sell otherwise they'll be in for some rough years ahead..Kitchener honestly could roll the dice with the roster they have and see where it takes them this year, Peterborough maybe not so much having dealt their star goaltender away already...

 

[DWI Dale]

It's the same logic with Kitchener, both Peterborough and Kitchener need to sell otherwise they'll be in for some rough years ahead..Kitchener honestly could roll the dice with the roster they have and see where it takes them this year, Peterborough maybe not so much having dealt their star goaltender away already...

hmmm... they're not in the best shape but in fairness neither is Soo or London. i've been noticing fans in Kitchener, Soo, and London all have mixed feelings about buying/selling.

mississauga and saginaw are the 2 teams that actually seemed to have built up enough of a war chest to make a run (depending on the accuracy of the database).

 

[OMG67]

Peterborough is still #1 in the East, #2 overall. Calling them sellers could be premature.

2024	---	---	---
2025	---	KGN 3rd LDN 3rd	---
2026	---	---	---
2027	2nd	3rd	4th

That’s why….

Additionally, they’ve already traded almost all of their ‘05 draft class. They have no realistic 18 year olds that would be traded next year as 19 year olds.

If they clear out those last five picks in the 2nd to 4th rounds, they won’t have the means of replacing them via trade next year.