2024 Draft Discussion

[Realgud]

MBN is an "aim low" type of pick but at 15 that's pretty much as good of a "aim low" pick you're ever gonna get. I think his floor and ceiling is pretty much dead set in the middle of an NHL lineup. Could be a scoring threat on the second line or a checking/depth scoring forward on the third line. I say that because I think he's pretty much average across the board (outside of his shot, which I'll address later), and I mean that as a compliment because what I mean is "NHL average". And that includes almost everything from physicality, maturity, defense, hands, skating, IQ... nothing really stands out as a weakness. The issue with projecting him higher in the lineup is that outside of his shot, he doesn't really have anything that is a real plus so I wonder how well he'll be able to consistently use his shot if he doesn't combine that with either higher than average skating and/or hands. He's pretty much purely a complimentary player and that's absolutely fine. His shot is fast and the release has gotten much quicker. He doesn't have elite accuracy as he'll usually just overpower the shot towards the high-center portion of the net instead of picking corners but that could also come with a bit more practice. It's already a high-end weapon for him, and maybe he could get it to an elite level with time.

I've always liked him, even last season and I've watched a ton of his games. He soured a bit on me during the regular season because despite getting plenty of opportunities in the top 6 and the first powerplay, he just wasn't able to find the space to even get the chance to use his great shot. I felt like his offensive awareness was really lacking but as the season went along and into the playoffs/WC, that has changed quite a bit and it felt like he finally got "it". Not only was he able to find space better but he was able to find the real dangerous space around the net for high-danger chances using his quick release. His teammates were able to find him there as he drove to these pockets of space and his production went up as a result.

 

[SantosHalper]

MBN's overall game is too likely to fall on the wrong side of the scoring line vs checking line threshold.

I also see the appeal of the team identity that MBN would help us build. If it turned out (big IF), a top 6 with Raymond, Larkin, Kasper, Danielson and MBN would be so tenacious. Can you imagine how frustrating an effective "full-ice press" would be? That could be awesome. Everyone plays protect the blue line, but that's the kind of team makeup that lets you buck the trend.

I can see that being the question but that's the only question. What i see, is a player that can play in every line and help improve powerplay. At 15, that's a jackpot. All the other players available are starting to have lot if and but's in their package. If and but's MBN doesn't have.

This is the second thing, if the plan is to built a certain type of identity, then we have to aqcuire that type of players. Worrying about which side of the coin(scoring or checking line) he end up in, will lead us having a very few of those players. Like we have seen those ain't easy to find and other teams ain't giving theirs without massive payment.

And i've been imagine seeing Kasper - Danielson - MBN-line, and that exactly what i would want to see in playoffs and one of the Seider/Edvinsson behind them. Yeah, have fun playing against them.

Unless Eiserman is available.....

I still don't see him dropping that far, i've been doing my own mock draft lately and im certain he won't fall past New Jersey. At first i thought Ottawa will pick him but then i noticed they don't really have decent RHDs in the system and the ones on the roster are meh. So i had them picking Yakemchuk, fits in their rat identity and RHD and one of the oldest players players in this draft class, so you could expect him replacing Hamonic soon.

But Jersey will pick him and later on that opens up a possibility to trade one of the scoring wingers and replace him with cheap ELC-Eiserman. If by some miracle Jersey won't pick him, Buffalo will.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

HOFers have made careers out of "nothing" but a shot.

I'll bite. Who? If one of the names out of your mouth is Alexander Ovechkin or Brett Hull, you can kindly shut up.

I think there is a lot to be desired in Eiserman's game too, but Eiserman's shot is elite. I think I said earlier in the thread that to me, with Eiserman, there's genuinely a 50% chance that you're getting a functionally irrelevant piece. I can see him getting muscled off every puck, stick checked on every shot and never having the intensity to battle through those issues to find the lanes he'll need to score. If he improves on his general skills a little bit, and continues to develop as a shooter, he could be an elite scorer. The only reason someone with his shot may be available at 15 is because of the holes in his game. I don't think Eiserman is more likely to be a good player than MBN. I just think he's way more likely to be a core player.

See, this is an appropriate scouting reaction. If he can't work the rest of his game to actually get that shot off... he's worthless as an NHL player. Ask Filip Zadina and Teemu Pulkkinen.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I'll bite. Who? If one of the names out of your mouth is Alexander Ovechkin or Brett Hull, you can kindly shut up.


See, this is an appropriate scouting reaction. If he can't work the rest of his game to actually get that shot off... he's worthless as an NHL player. Ask Filip Zadina and Teemu Pulkkinen.

I am totally with you on this. If you are going to go looking for a unicorn, you should at least admit that you are looking for a unicorn. Personally a great shot is far less impressive to me than IQ and understanding timing and spacing.

 

[norrisnick]

I'll bite. Who? If one of the names out of your mouth is Alexander Ovechkin or Brett Hull, you can kindly shut up.

Brett Hull. No u

 

[OldnotDeadWings]

I feel like there is a disconnect between the supposed reality of 15th OA in this Draft and the fantasy solution some fans think the Wings should pursue. On the one hand, it's argued this Draft is of relatively low quality, yet on the other there is an opinion the Wings only need players who allegedly have the "upside" to be top six offensive stars.

The Wings IMO still need to keep adding quality depth, especially at a position where they most lack it. Players with more to their game than great hands or a great shot are not just a safer bet, they're a better bet for the kind of team being built. A Farabee or DeBrusk level player -- both with career highs to date of 50 points -- would be a great pick this year. Where is any future needed skill goiing to come from? From the same places Florida got it (just four of their own drafted players in the regular lineup, including one re-acquired this season) and where Vegas keeps getting it. That trade/FA avenue to roster construction is going to continue to get more accessible as the prospect pool grows and the lineup transitions to younger and cheaper players.

For those who need some education about what to expect statistically from prospects playing in Allsvenskan, here's how MBN compares to other previous first-rounders in their Draft or D+1 seasons (minimum 10 GP) over the past decade or so. He's in a group with Pastrnak, Forsberg and sixth-rounder Bratt, all of whom also scored eight goals in their Draft seasons.

Pettersson 43 GP, 19-22-41, Draft season
Wennberg 46 GP, 14-18-32, Draft season
W.Nylander 35 GP, 15-12-27, Draft season
Pastrnak 38 GP, 8-16-24, Draft season
MBN: 41 GP, 8-11-19, Draft season
Forsberg 43 GP, 8-9-17, Draft season
Dvorsky 38 GP, 6-8-14, Draft season
Burakowsky 43 GP, 4-7-11, Draft season
Olausson 11 GP, 3-3-6, Draft season
Ostlund 37 GP, 8-18-26, D+1 season
Ohgren 36 GP, 11-9-20, D+1 season
Lekkerimaki 29 GP, 3-6-9, D+1 season
Also:
Bratt (6th Round) 48 GP, 8-9-17, Draft season

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

Brett Hull. No u

Brett Hull just always happened to find the soft spots in the defense while being slow as a f***in glacier. Not only that, he was keeping up and being in the right position on the two kids and an old goat line with Datsyuk and Devereaux and then Datsyuk and Zetterberg.

Hull was slow, but he doesn't uncork that wicked wrister or one-timer if he's not in the right place at the right time all the time.

I know it's not as sexy as Corsi or Fenwick or whatever advanced stat we want to get to... but Brett Hull got wide-open to shoot those one-timers FAR too often for it to be just his shot.

And of his 740 goals, over 50% (460 or so) were at 5 on 5 play. So it wasn't power play padding. He was getting lost among nine other skaters.

 

[norrisnick]

So I take it Eiserman is scoring his goals from the bench since he's incapable of movement?

Also... Don't forget that Hull was drafted in the triple digits. He wasn't highly regarded as a teenager either....

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

I feel like there is a disconnect between the supposed reality of 15th OA in this Draft and the fantasy solution some fans think the Wings should pursue. On the one hand, it's argued this Draft is of relatively low quality, yet on the other there is an opinion the Wings only need players who allegedly have the "upside" to be top six offensive stars.

The Wings IMO still need to keep adding quality depth, especially at a position where they most lack it. Players with more to their game than great hands or a great shot are not just a safer bet, they're a better bet for the kind of team being built. A Farabee or DeBrusk level player -- both with career highs to date of 50 points -- would be a great pick this year. Where is any future needed skill goiing to come from? From the same places Florida got it (just four of their own drafted players in the regular lineup, including one re-acquired this season) and where Vegas keeps getting it. That trade/FA avenue to roster construction is going to continue to get more accessible as the prospect pool grows and the lineup transitions to younger and cheaper players.

For those who need some education about what to expect statistically from prospects playing in Allsvenskan, here's how MBN compares to other previous first-rounders in their Draft or D+1 seasons (minimum 10 GP) over the past decade or so. He's in a group with Pastrnak, Forsberg and sixth-rounder Bratt, all of whom also scored eight goals in their Draft seasons.

Pettersson 43 GP, 19-22-41, Draft season
Wennberg 46 GP, 14-18-32, Draft season
W.Nylander 35 GP, 15-12-27, Draft season
Pastrnak 38 GP, 8-16-24, Draft season
MBN: 41 GP, 8-11-19, Draft season
Forsberg 43 GP, 8-9-17, Draft season
Dvorsky 38 GP, 6-8-14, Draft season
Burakowsky 43 GP, 4-7-11, Draft season
Olausson 11 GP, 3-3-6, Draft season
Ostlund 37 GP, 8-18-26, D+1 season
Ohgren 36 GP, 11-9-20, D+1 season
Lekkerimaki 29 GP, 3-6-9, D+1 season
Also:
Bratt (6th Round) 48 GP, 8-9-17, Draft season

Prospect guys are always gonna have the disconnect. Because you usually don't get drafted at all if you don't show out in lower leagues and you certainly don't get drafted in the first round if you're not exceptional. So, people see what they do at the lower level and simply assume it'll continue in the future. So Zadina the sniper is gonna continue to snipe, 50 goal Mantha is gonna be a terror for a long long time.

More guys in the lower leagues are going to face huge uphill climbs to make it if they even do... even taken in the top 15.

There is nothing wrong with swinging for a solid double (A guy who has a pretty solid floor but won't be a superstar) in the late first. Taking the big time boom-bust guys is what Detroit did in the second with Buchelnikov. It's what Tampa did with Kucherov back in the day or the teams that took Peterka.

 

[Axel Sandy Pelikan]

So I take it Eiserman is scoring his goals from the bench since he's incapable of movement?

Also... Don't forget that Hull was drafted in the triple digits. He wasn't highly regarded as a teenager either....

Dude, there is a massive difference between finding the soft spots and getting your shot off in juniors and the Euro leagues or the KHL and the NHL. Zadina could get open all the time at Halifax. He couldn't in Detroit. Pulkkinen could do it in juniors and at the AHL level, but couldn't at the NHL level on a consistent basis.

And cool, Brett Hull was taken in 1984. I don't even know that they had video cameras in some of the rinks that draft eligible kids would play a lot of the time back then.

Long story short though... I'm just saying that if ALL Eiserman has is a shot... he's a dead prospect. I don't think that's all he has... but it is the risk you're taking. You have to project that he'll be able to locate the areas of the ice at higher levels of competition to be alright with the pick. Other guy said it exactly. He has a huge bust possibility because if you can't get your shot off quickly, cleanly, and consistently and that's your main selling point... you're not going to last long in the NHL. That's what players like that (Teemu Pulkkinen with his massive cannon) usually go in the later rounds.

 

[wingerdinger]

MBN is a "aim low" type of pick but at 15 that's pretty much as good of a "aim low" pick you're ever gonna get. I think his floor and ceiling is pretty much dead set in the middle of an NHL lineup. Could be a scoring threat on the 2nd line or a checking/depth scoring forward on the third line. I say that because I think he's pretty much average across the board (outside of his shot, which I'll address later), and I mean that as a compliment because what I mean is "NHL average". And that includes almost everything from physicality, maturity, defense, hands, skating, IQ... nothing really stands out as a weakness. The issue with projecting him higher in the lineup is that outside of his shot, he doesn't really have anything that is a real plus so I wonder how well he'll be able to consistently use his shot if he doesn't combine that with either higher than average skating and/or hands. He's pretty much purely a complimentary player and that's absolutely fine. His shot is fast and the release has gotten much quicker. He doesn't have elite accuracy as he'll usually just overpower the shot towards the high-center portion of the net instead of picking corners but that could also come with a bit more practice. It's already a high-end weapon for him, and maybe he could get it to an elite level with time.

I've always liked him, even last season and I've watched a ton of his games. He soured a bit on me during the regular season because despite getting plenty of opportunities in the top 6 and the first powerplay, he just wasn't able to find the space to even get the chance to use his great shot. I felt like his offensive awareness was really lacking but as the season went along and into the playoffs/WC, that has changed quite a bit and it felt like he finally got "it". Not only was he able to find space better but he was able to find the real dangerous space around the net for high-danger chances using his quick release. His teammates were able to find him there as he drove to these pockets of space and his production went up as a result.

Great analysis thou I'd argue he'll be in the top 80 percentile for physicality from 25-32 for nhl wingers.

 

[Konnan511]

Guys I'd be thrilled to get:
Cole Eiserman
Konsta Helenius
Michael Brandsegg-Nygård
Liam Greentree
Terik Parascak
Nikita Artamonov
Cole Hutson
Yegor Surin
Lucas Pettersson

Hopefully we can find a way to pick up at least 2 of these prospects.

 

[Realgud]

Great analysis thou I'd argue he'll be in the top 80 percentile for physicality from 25-32 for nhl wingers.

Yeah that's fair.