Player Discussion Dakota Joshua | Shut up and give him his money!

[ayoshi]

Give Joshua Mikheyev's money and fire Mikheyev into the Sun.

 

[biturbo19]

Give Joshua Mikheyev's money and fire Mikheyev into the Sun.

Unfortunately, the salary cap rules say you're not allowed to do that.


There's a whole clause in there about firing Mikheyevs into the sun.

 

[NoShowWilly]

wonder if he goes for the bag of cash or security and a winner. hopefully the team can keep him at a good price on a 4 year deal similar to that Burrows deal. perhaps 4years/10million?

doubt it comes in that low but he has had basically one season where he found chemistry and a coach he works well under. He remains a canuck and can continue with Garland.

 

[Big zZz]

Unfortunately, the salary cap rules say you're not allowed to do that.


There's a whole clause in there about firing Mikheyevs into the sun.

The Golden cheats seem to find a way to do it with stone every year.

 

[Big zZz]

Has anyone actually done the math and see what we can afford?

Everyone talks about re signing Dak, Zadorov, Lindholm, Hronek but it sounds likely that we probably keep one or two.

I'm really annoyed with Dakota in the postseason. It's one thing to not be putting up numbers but he had no physical pushback whatsoever against Edmonton.

I wasn't impressed with hronek for about half the season BUT we can't let a 26 yr old RHD walk away.

In terms of priority
Lindholm
Hronek
Zadorov


miller boeser garland
Petey Lindholm 7.25m hog
Karlsson/Bains/lek/rayrt Suter mikheyev
Pdg Aman Pod

Hughes hronek 6.5m
Soucy zadorov 4.5m
Juulsen Myers 3m

Demko
Silovs 1.5


Juuuuust enough to squeeze under the cap. Gotta find a way to get rid of mikheyev for some extra space.

 

[Britton]

Yeah I think of your UFA's Joshua is probably one of the lower priorities at this point given where his salary will come in and other factors like his skating and age. And despite what people keep saying his Physicality is nice, but he's not going to age gracefully and he more than anyone else on the team had a really lucky season. I don't think you will even see him touch this kind of production again but he's going to get paid like he will. Like the dude scored 18 goals on 84 shots, you can't expect that to happen again, so you really just paying him to be physical and pk and you can find much cheaper options for those roles.

 

[MS]

In both series had a great game 1 and then disappeared.

I thought he had a great season for us and you can’t take that away from him, but it makes me hesitant to pay him what he’s going to be looking for. He has it in him to be a good, good player, but it’s a risk.

There’s a chance he was injured of course. But really frustrating nonetheless.

Dude had 8 points in 13 games and threw hits at a pace that would have paced at 450 over a full season.

People are acting like a 3rd liner is somehow a failure because he 'only' won two playoff games by himself and 'only' scored at a 50-point pace in the postseason.

He's irreplaceable and if it takes $4 million you find a way to clear that money.

 

[OTC]

Dude had 8 points in 13 games and threw hits at a pace that would have paced at 450 over a full season.

People are acting like a 3rd liner is somehow a failure because he 'only' won two playoff games by himself and 'only' scored at a 50-point pace in the postseason.

He's irreplaceable and if it takes $4 million you find a way to clear that money.

Chicago will give Dakota 4m. Everyone gets it i.e. Foligno, Anathiosu, Perry.

 

[Britton]

Dude had 8 points in 13 games and threw hits at a pace that would have paced at 450 over a full season.

People are acting like a 3rd liner is somehow a failure because he 'only' won two playoff games by himself and 'only' scored at a 50-point pace in the postseason.

He's irreplaceable and if it takes $4 million you find a way to clear that money.

I mean he was ok, but he was also playing with Lindholm and Garland who were the ones driving the bus on that line. Even in the regular season his most common linemates were Garland and Blueger and he had terrible numbers away from them while their numbers away from him and each other were fine. He's not going to repeat the production we saw this season, it's just not possible unless he has like 100% more shots next year. That 4 million could be way better spent elsewhere, Garland and Bleuger or Lindholm or whoever their center is don't need him to succeed but he very much needs especially Garland. I think if you want to bring him back he needs to come in under 3.

 

[biturbo19]

Dude had 8 points in 13 games and threw hits at a pace that would have paced at 450 over a full season.

People are acting like a 3rd liner is somehow a failure because he 'only' won two playoff games by himself and 'only' scored at a 50-point pace in the postseason.

He's irreplaceable and if it takes $4 million you find a way to clear that money.

It's just such a completely unsustainable pace though. Normally, i kind of hate the whole PDO talk. I think it's stupid and often applied in a lazy way. But with Joshua...it's very much a factor here. Same as Hoglander who is also a good player who had a major resurgence...but i wouldn't bank on him potting another 24G next year. That's just not reasonable.


I'd want to keep Joshua...but he's the straight up poster boy for a player who gets "overpaid". Big, physical, scored at a completely unsustainable rate. $4M long-term for a player like that whose success was driven by a $4.9M Garland...you just can't do that. And a guy who plays a physical game that tends to fall off a cliff as they approach 30...and is a kind of terrible skater who has put a ton of work into improving in that, but those guys tend to just become utterly useless as they age. Unless they're Cory Perry but that's a totally different caliber of player.,

 

[MS]

It's just such a completely unsustainable pace though. Normally, i kind of hate the whole PDO talk. I think it's stupid and often applied in a lazy way. But with Joshua...it's very much a factor here. Same as Hoglander who is also a good player who had a major resurgence...but i wouldn't bank on him potting another 24G next year. That's just not reasonable.


I'd want to keep Joshua...but he's the straight up poster boy for a player who gets "overpaid". Big, physical, scored at a completely unsustainable rate. $4M long-term for a player like that whose success was driven by a $4.9M Garland...you just can't do that. And a guy who plays a physical game that tends to fall off a cliff as they approach 30...and is a kind of terrible skater who has put a ton of work into improving in that, but those guys tend to just become utterly useless as they age. Unless they're Cory Perry but that's a totally different caliber of player.,

I don't agree that it's unsustainable.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if his production goes up more if they give him more top-6/PP minutes. He absolutely deserved those minutes this year - and a long look next to Pettersson in particular - but they didn't want to break up the Garland-Joshua pairing.

But even if he only scores 30 points/82 going forward, you just can't find big reliable two-way players who bring this kind of physicality.

I also disagree with the notion that bad skaters age more poorly and think it's actually often the opposite.

 

[credulous]

joshua's shot rate is bottom third of the league. it's going to be really hard for him to be more than a 10-15g guy unless he gets that way up

 

[MS]

joshua's shot rate is bottom third of the league. it's going to be really hard for him to be more than a 10-15g guy unless he gets that way up

I hate this kind of lazy analysis.

I get that when a guy like Sam Lafferty who has been around for years goes on a weird heater you can look at SH% and project a regression.

But not all players are the same and when you actually watch Joshua play there's a reason his shooting % is so high. Nearly every shot he takes is from <10 feet in high-danger areas.

Conversely, a guy like Podkolzin is always going to have a low SH% because he takes a ton of low-percentage shots from crappy areas.

Joshua might not shoot 21% again but I'd bet money he's consistently over 15% for the next few years. And watching the games - he's a bloody effective player. It wasn't a fluke that he produced.

 

[Soups On]

You sign him from 3-4 years $3-4 million/year and then laugh as he out produces his cap and takes the next step as a top 6 guy. He showed he has the game for it and his size is invaluable for this team. And like others have said, you clear cap space to keep him if needed. You guys do know he started like 65% in the d zone, right?

 

[biturbo19]

I don't agree that it's unsustainable.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if his production goes up more if they give him more top-6/PP minutes. He absolutely deserved those minutes this year - and a long look next to Pettersson in particular - but they didn't want to break up the Garland-Joshua pairing.

But even if he only scores 30 points/82 going forward, you just can't find big reliable two-way players who bring this kind of physicality.

I also disagree with the notion that bad skaters age more poorly and think it's actually often the opposite.

He's looked pretty terrible in the brief looks they've given him in the Top-6 though. He doesn't seem to mesh with Petey or Bozo. He really thrives, and his unsustainable scoring rate is dependent upon playing with Garland.

There were 6 goals scored all year...where Joshua was on the ice and Garland wasn't. All year. Not even goals by Joshua...but just goals scored while he was even on the ice without Garland. He's hugely a product of his insane chemistry with Garland. In the same way Hoglander is a product of hist insane chemistry with Lafferty.



The other part of this is the real issue here. Do you "overpay" for a 30pt-10G guy at age 28 who isn't a great skater to begin with? I say no. If you can get him on a contract that starts with a 2 and for only a few years? Heck yeah, sign him up. I just don't think that's the market he'll be in. I think he's headed far more toward that $4M+ range that you just regret all day. You still have to figure out how to replace him and that size + physicality he brings. But that's the mess we're in. You can't afford to let sentimentality overpay guys who aren't going to age well or even repeat what they did last year.



I guess it comes down to whether you see him as a Top-6F and Powerplay guy. I just don't see it. He's not nearly skilled enough and he doesn't read the play nearly well enough to be a factor there. Being big and tall is not a Powerplay skillset in and of itself. He's looked terrible in the minutes he's played in the Top-6 and on the Powerplay...the problem of a "big dude" to stand around the net is 1990s thinking. Also solved more easily by Nikita Zaddy anyway.

 

[MS]

He's looked pretty terrible in the brief looks they've given him in the Top-6 though. He doesn't seem to mesh with Petey or Bozo. He really thrives, and his unsustainable scoring rate is dependent upon playing with Garland.

There were 6 goals scored all year...where Joshua was on the ice and Garland wasn't. All year. Not even goals by Joshua...but just goals scored while he was even on the ice without Garland. He's hugely a product of his insane chemistry with Garland. In the same way Hoglander is a product of hist insane chemistry with Lafferty.



The other part of this is the real issue here. Do you "overpay" for a 30pt-10G guy at age 28 who isn't a great skater to begin with? I say no. If you can get him on a contract that starts with a 2 and for only a few years? Heck yeah, sign him up. I just don't think that's the market he'll be in. I think he's headed far more toward that $4M+ range that you just regret all day. You still have to figure out how to replace him and that size + physicality he brings. But that's the mess we're in. You can't afford to let sentimentality overpay guys who aren't going to age well or even repeat what they did last year.



I guess it comes down to whether you see him as a Top-6F and Powerplay guy. I just don't see it. He's not nearly skilled enough and he doesn't read the play nearly well enough to be a factor there. Being big and tall is not a Powerplay skillset in and of itself. He's looked terrible in the minutes he's played in the Top-6 and on the Powerplay...the problem of a "big dude" to stand around the net is 1990s thinking. Also solved more easily by Nikita Zaddy anyway.

He pretty much never played with Pettersson and I thought that he looked very good in his brief look with Miller near the end of the year.

He isn't a 'big dude to stand around the net' - he's a guy who scored 22 goals in 76 games this year with no PP time and gets basically all his goals by ... being near the net and having great hands. Comparing that to sticking Zadorov netfront on the PP is ... weird.

I also don't think that the 'only scored with Garland' thing is any sort of gotcha.

If they let him walk, it will be a massive, massive mistake.

 

[HockeyWooot]

He’s a good player, and despite an underwhelming Edmonton series he’d be hard to replace.

Near top of the leagues in hits, PKs with majority defensive zone starts and 10-15g a year type scoring.

Obviously don’t overpay, but if we need to let him walk we better have a plan B

 

[Bleach Clean]

You sign him from 3-4 years $3-4 million/year and then laugh as he out produces his cap and takes the next step as a top 6 guy. He showed he has the game for it and his size is invaluable for this team. And like others have said, you clear cap space to keep him if needed. You guys do know he started like 65% in the d zone, right?

$3.5m AAV would be as high as I would go. At $4m AAV, you could get a middling top6 forward elsewhere.

His limitations were exposed in the playoffs. Just couldn't get there and made bad reads throughout. Given his career arc, he has to cash in now, and I'm not sure VAN will give him that money contract.

Last, every dollar you give him is one you're taking away from a legitimately skilled top6er. That's the opportunity cost.

 

[biturbo19]

He pretty much never played with Pettersson and I thought that he looked very good in his brief look with Miller near the end of the year.

He isn't a 'big dude to stand around the net' - he's a guy who scored 22 goals in 76 games this year with no PP time and gets basically all his goals by ... being near the net and having great hands. Comparing that to sticking Zadorov netfront on the PP is ... weird.

I also don't think that the 'only scored with Garland' thing is any sort of gotcha.

If they let him walk, it will be a massive, massive mistake.

I mean..."he only scored with Garland" is the entire reality of the situation. You're trying to project his scoring out to a Top-6 role that he hasn't demonstrated he's capable of whatsoever. Like you said...he barely played there. But what we saw was...not great. He's just not that skilled.


Like...you're literally saying "He isn't a 'big dude to stand around the net" and then the later in the sentence you're saying..."and gets basically all his goals by ... being near the net and having great hands." I'm not trying to play "gotcha" here. But like...what?


I just don't get it. You're projecting his trajectory upward from an already kind of meteoric rise over the past season. Largely due to his chemistry with tiny Conor who meshes absolutely perfectly with him as a guy who just gets the puck to the net...always.

He's basically Marcus Foligno. Big physical 12G per year player who had one heck of a season. He's younger, but he's basically already at the same age in terms of skating. Really good player. I'd take them on my team any day. But...not at $4M per year.



Replacing his size and physicality is a heck of a challenge. But you've gotta do it, if the price hits those heights...

 

[MS]

I mean..."he only scored with Garland" is the entire reality of the situation. You're trying to project his scoring out to a Top-6 role that he hasn't demonstrated he's capable of whatsoever. Like you said...he barely played there. But what we saw was...not great. He's just not that skilled.


Like...you're literally saying "He isn't a 'big dude to stand around the net" and then the later in the sentence you're saying..."and gets basically all his goals by ... being near the net and having great hands." I'm not trying to play "gotcha" here. But like...what?


I just don't get it. You're projecting his trajectory upward from an already kind of meteoric rise over the past season. Largely due to his chemistry with tiny Conor who meshes absolutely perfectly with him as a guy who just gets the puck to the net...always.

He's basically Marcus Foligno. Big physical 12G per year player who had one heck of a season. He's younger, but he's basically already at the same age in terms of skating. Really good player. I'd take them on my team any day. But...not at $4M per year.



Replacing his size and physicality is a heck of a challenge. But you've gotta do it, if the price hits those heights...

Comparing a guy who scored 22 ES goals in 76 games by being a great net-front guy with great hands to putting a 20-point defender in that same spot is ridiculous.

I don't think you're appreciating much of the IQ and intricacies in Joshua's game that separates him from a pure north-south guy like Foligno. But also ... Foligno was a $2.9 million player back in 2017 and a $4 million player when signing for his age 30+ years in 2021 because he's an effective player and big, physical effective players are bloody hard to find and you don't just let them walk when you have them.

Like, f*** me. Reading through some of the comments here today makes me think most of this fanbase has no idea why we were successful this year.

 

[Hansen]

Yeah I disagree with the argument that Joshua its okay to let Joshua go because hes no longer one of the biggest steal contracts in the league. What he brings is what every team in the league desperately wants in the mix. I think he has more to give, and even if he doesn't, he's giving you good value anywhere in the 3.5-4.5 ballpark year over year.

 

[biturbo19]

Comparing a guy who scored 22 ES goals in 76 games by being a great net-front guy with great hands to putting a 20-point defender in that same spot is ridiculous.

I don't think you're appreciating much of the IQ and intricacies in Joshua's game that separates him from a pure north-south guy like Foligno. But also ... Foligno was a $2.9 million player back in 2017 and a $4 million player when signing for his age 30+ years in 2021 because he's an effective player and big, physical effective players are bloody hard to find and you don't just let them walk when you have them.

Like, f*** me. Reading through some of the comments here today makes me think most of this fanbase has no idea why we were successful this year.

I mean...the reason i bring it up, is that you mentioned he'd score more with PP time. But where? In what role? It'd be standing around the net, no?

It's just not a role that he's going to be in here because he's not that good at it. He's not Kreider. Which is why i bring up Zadorov who would probably be a better Powerplay Net Front presence. Or at least equally effectively. I don't even think either is a good idea. But it's trying to illustrate the problem here.


More importantly...it cuts to the bone of what Joshua is as a player. He's simply not a Top-6 player. He's not a Powerplay merchant. He's a guy who is massively important for his size and physicality when he's motivated...and an absolutely perfect complement to Garland.




They were so successful this year because they had a ton of players who bought in to a particular system and more often than not, they executed that system extremely well.


But it still wasn't nearly good enough. And leaning on the same players to somehow do better than they did in a "career year" breakout is foolish. I'm not sure if you've just got a bit of a blindspot for Joshua specifically...but he's the same thing as Hoglander. You'd be a complete rube to bet on Hoggy matching his goal total next year. I don't really see why Joshua is any different.

 

[biturbo19]

Yeah I disagree with the argument that Joshua its okay to let Joshua go because hes no longer one of the biggest steal contracts in the league. What he brings is what every team in the league desperately wants in the mix. I think he has more to give, and even if he doesn't, he's giving you good value anywhere in the 3.5-4.5 ballpark year over year.

The counterpoint to this is...

how do people feel about Marcus Foligno's contract? Josh Anderson? Barclay Goodrow? Even Coleman and Colton probably fall into that. There's just a very long line of teams that have contracts on the books over the years, who regret giving the whole bag to guys because they were great and/or big physical presence and bottom-6 contributors for a minute.

 

[Bleach Clean]

Giving Joshua a $4m+ contract is putting you in the range to repeat the Mikheyev mistake. Big does not equate to good and good is relative to the options forgone. Do you want to give Joshua $4-$4.5m AAV or DeBrusk $5-$5.5m AAV? I know which one I'm paying.

Edit: I like the player, but there's a threshold.

 

[credulous]

I hate this kind of lazy analysis.

I get that when a guy like Sam Lafferty who has been around for years goes on a weird heater you can look at SH% and project a regression.

But not all players are the same and when you actually watch Joshua play there's a reason his shooting % is so high. Nearly every shot he takes is from <10 feet in high-danger areas.

Conversely, a guy like Podkolzin is always going to have a low SH% because he takes a ton of low-percentage shots from crappy areas.

Joshua might not shoot 21% again but I'd bet money he's consistently over 15% for the next few years. And watching the games - he's a bloody effective player. It wasn't a fluke that he produced.

here's the complete list of forwards (edit: i had players originally, but i didn't look at defenders) that have shot > 15% in 3 or more of the last 5 seasons

adam henrique
andrei burakovsky
artemi panarin
auston matthews
brayden point
jt miller
leon draisaitl
marcus foligno
mark scheifele
mitch marner
nathan walker
nic dowd
travis boyd

(only point and matthews hit the mark 4/5. no one went 5/5)

there's only 395 seasons out of ~3100 where a player hits 15% at all

besides, even if joshua shoots 15% AND he gets brock boeser's ice time he's still only going to score 12-15 goals at evens with his shot rate

4m is way too much for him