Devils team discussion (news, notes and speculation) - offseason part I

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

oh shit.... she's one of those internet influencers

We should be thankful Bratt had a GF from NJ because you know she definitely told him to quit the bullshit with the contract talks yearly with his agent playing hardball with the Devils

 

[Triumph]

There are plenty of places with needs for a 22 year old guy who can simply score.

But you want to give up on a sniper at 22 years old because he didn't succeed when shoved into an incredibly stupid role for him.

If you wanted to know that a sniper wouldn't fit with AHL scrubs playing a defensive role I could have told you that for free. Same shit would have happened if you stuck Toffoli down there

I question whether or not he can simply score. He had a phenomenal season rate-wise - I do not think he can maintain anything close to that rate.

I don't want to give up on him, but I think the organization is ready to give up on him, and indeed he has probably given up on the organization as well.

I don't think a lot of teams have soft-minute scorers that they force into being 'top 6' forwards and give a bunch of ice time to them. There's not many guys around the league who fit that description. There's certainly been guys like that in the past. One thing you're overlooking in all this is that Holtz got plenty of power play time and only managed 1 power play goal - that's not going to cut it.

 

[Bleedred]

I honestly think Holtz is already gone.

Maybe if we get well into the offseason and he's still here I'll start to think otherwise, but I think he may as well already be gone right now. Just feels like this is the end for him here, and there were a lot of signs of this being the case down the stretch, as well as any point during the season.

 

[dgibb10]

I question whether or not he can simply score. He had a phenomenal season rate-wise - I do not think he can maintain anything close to that rate.

I don't want to give up on him, but I think the organization is ready to give up on him, and indeed he has probably given up on the organization as well.

I don't think a lot of teams have soft-minute scorers that they force into being 'top 6' forwards and give a bunch of ice time to them. There's not many guys around the league who fit that description. There's certainly been guys like that in the past. One thing you're overlooking in all this is that Holtz got plenty of power play time and only managed 1 power play goal - that's not going to cut it.

Just want to clarify we're talking about a 22 year old with 1 full season under his belt, still on his ELC?

Alex Holtz got 0 opportunity on PP1, as the sniper role was blocked off by Bratt and/or Toffoli.

If you watched the PP2 unit, you'd have seen that nobody other than Jack or Bratt was able to execute the slingshot NJD runs for a clean break in.

 

[Brodeur]

With the McDonagh trade today, if Tampa wants any chance at bringing back Stamkos, it seems that they will have to move 2 of Cernak/Cirelli/Jeannott.

- Cernak is the exact type of defensemen the Devils are in need of. Though he is a RHD, and the Devils are moreso in need of a LHD. Does handedness matter THAT much?

I just had PTSD from the Vatanen+Severson pairing from 2019 or the first half of 2010-11 when we kept calling up below average lefties and forcing them to play on the right. Right shot D tend to be harder to find even in juniors, so most of them spend their formative years on their strong side.

I wish I could find the articles, but I do recall former NHLer Josh Gorges (LH) describing playing on the right side feeling like he was doing everything backwards. Almost sounded like the difference between playing left and right tackle in football which isn't an overnight transition.

There was an older article with quotes from Scott Niedermayer who played on his weak side for years. It boiled down to being really great on your backhand and most guys aren't going to be able to make breakout passes with their backhand while under duress.

Out of the entire league, I think the only guys who regularly play on their off side are Mackenzie Weegar, Miro Heiskanen, T.J. Brodie, Jakob Chychrun, Nate Schmidt, and Rasmus Dahlin. Erik Brannstrom is one of the few who wants to play on his weak side but Ottawa has mostly kept him on the left. I think Dmitri Kulikov has been playing on the right this season, especially when Florida was missing Ekblad/Montour to start the season. Sean Durzi played some on the left for LA but that was due to them having four RHD; Durzi was decent offensively but rough defensively which was partly the reason LA moved him and extended Vladislav Gavrikov.

- Cirelli would be an excellent choice as a two-way 3C to play behind Hughes and Hischier. Would be one of the better 3Cs in the league. Great defensively and can produce points.
- Jeannott, albeit expensive for a 4th liner, would bring much needed jam to this Devils team.

If pressed, Tampa seemingly prefers to deal its cap casualties to the west: McDonagh to Nashville, Colton to Colorado, Miller to Vancouver. If they made Cirelli/Cernak available, there wouldn't be a shortage of suitors.

Don't know if we have anything that would really interest Tampa unless they wanted Holtz's final ELC year. But even then we don't have unlimited cap space. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 18 million for a goalie, Mercer's extension, and a few depth players. That alone could get you close to 13 million, so I'm not sure how you'd be fitting in Cirelli (6.25).

 

[Ripshot 43]

We should be thankful Bratt had a GF from NJ because you know she definitely told him to quit the bullshit with the contract talks yearly with his agent playing hardball with the Devils

You are clearly describing Jack Hughes

 

[Triumph]

Just want to clarify we're talking about a 22 year old with 1 full season under his belt, still on his ELC?

Yep.

Alex Holtz got 0 opportunity on PP1, as the sniper role was blocked off by Bratt and/or Toffoli.

And he was also lousy on the power play. There were opportunities after Toffoli was traded away.

If you watched the PP2 unit, you'd have seen that nobody other than Jack or Bratt was able to execute the slingshot NJD runs for a clean break in.

Oh okay, nobody on unit 2 must've scored ever then. Yes, PP2 was worse. Doesn't mean it never scored. He had the lowest shot rate of anybody on the power play. He was bad. That won't do. He'll have to get a lot better there to have a long NHL career.

 

[Devils731]

Yep.



And he was also lousy on the power play. There were opportunities after Toffoli was traded away.



Oh okay, nobody on unit 2 must've scored ever then. Yes, PP2 was worse. Doesn't mean it never scored. He had the lowest shot rate of anybody on the power play. He was bad. That won't do. He'll have to get a lot better there to have a long NHL career.

One weird thing about PP2 is that Holtz was one of the two featured entry players on it.

I wouldn’t have thought that was a strength of his, and I don’t think it was, but I think it highlights that PP2 had some personnel issues.

 

[dgibb10]

Yep.



And he was also lousy on the power play. There were opportunities after Toffoli was traded away.



Oh okay, nobody on unit 2 must've scored ever then. Yes, PP2 was worse. Doesn't mean it never scored. He had the lowest shot rate of anybody on the power play. He was bad. That won't do. He'll have to get a lot better there to have a long NHL career.

Yes, the guys getting PP2 opportunities like holtz also didn't score at all.

For guys around that 20% ozone start on the PP

Nemec: 2 points
Haula: 3 points
Holtz: 2 points

Mercer, Palat got up to PP1 for stretches. Which is why they got 30-35% ozone starts on the PP

but still

Palat: 5 points
Mercer: 5 points

One weird thing about PP2 is that Holtz was one of the two featured entry players on it.

I wouldn’t have thought that was a strength of his, and I don’t think it was, but I think it highlights that PP2 had some personnel issues.

Because all 3 of our elite entry guys were on PP1 (Hughes bros +Bratt)

 

[Alex NJD]

PP2 was absolutely abysmal after Dougie got hurt. Nemec as the main PP QB was on for more GA then GF I think. Palat had 1 PP goal playing the half wall all season, Holtz 1 goal playing mainly the other side but also some slot I think? Haula 1 goal as well. Not sure how many of Timo and Mercer's PPG were unit 1 vs 2 but the entire unit was awful. I think that mainly true of our PP as a whole, unit 1 just had so much sheer talent that it ended up with decent results by seasons end.

I feel like the main problem is getting a coach that runs a great PP bc Green was an absolute bum who managed to have a league worst powerplay over a few month stretch with the likes of Hischier Bratt and the Hughes brothers

 

[Bleedred]

Green was an absolute bum

 

[ZYXWVUT]

I honestly think Holtz is already gone.

Maybe if we get well into the offseason and he's still here I'll start to think otherwise, but I think he may as well already be gone right now. Just feels like this is the end for him here, and there were a lot of signs of this being the case down the stretch, as well as any point during the season.

Yeah when I randomly think about roster stuff I don’t even pencil him in anywhere

 

[dgibb10]

PP2 was absolutely abysmal after Dougie got hurt. Nemec as the main PP QB was on for more GA then GF I think. Palat had 1 PP goal playing the half wall all season, Holtz 1 goal playing mainly the other side but also some slot I think? Haula 1 goal as well. Not sure how many of Timo and Mercer's PPG were unit 1 vs 2 but the entire unit was awful. I think that mainly true of our PP as a whole, unit 1 just had so much sheer talent that it ended up with decent results by seasons end.

I feel like the main problem is getting a coach that runs a great PP bc Green was an absolute bum who managed to have a league worst powerplay over a few month stretch with the likes of Hischier Bratt and the Hughes brothers

The slingshot works when you have 3 of the best skaters in hockey on the ice in Jack, Luke, and Bratt.

Letting the defense get fully set up to defend every rush doesn't work as well when it means you're relying on Eric Haula, Alex Holtz, or Ondrej Palat to skate through 3 NJD players and 4 PKers all standing at the blueline

 

[Triumph]

Yes, the guys getting PP2 opportunities like holtz also didn't score at all.

For guys around that 20% ozone start on the PP

Nemec: 2 points
Haula: 3 points
Holtz: 2 points

Mercer, Palat got up to PP1 for stretches. Which is why they got 30-35% ozone starts on the PP

but still

Palat: 5 points
Mercer: 5 points


Because all 3 of our elite entry guys were on PP1 (Hughes bros +Bratt)

Bizarre how this post doesn't have rates in it. It's almost like you use rates when those make Holtz look better but when they don't, you don't. Holtz had a better scoring rate 5v5 than he did 5v4. Some of that's the unit, some of that's him.

Also I can only imagine these zone start rates are taking into account on the fly shifts, which is not how zone start is typically calculated. So yes, most PP2 shifts start on the fly which is an inherent disadvantage, but of the ones that didn't, of course the vast majority were in the offensive zone.

 

[dgibb10]

Bizarre how this post doesn't have rates in it. It's almost like you use rates when those make Holtz look better but when they don't, you don't. Holtz had a better scoring rate 5v5 than he did 5v4. Some of that's the unit, some of that's him.

Also I can only imagine these zone start rates are taking into account on the fly shifts, which is not how zone start is typically calculated. So yes, most PP2 shifts start on the fly which is an inherent disadvantage, but of the ones that didn't, of course the vast majority were in the offensive zone.

Rate stats for a sample sizes that small aren't statistically meaningful. Especially when you'd have to further sift through PP1 goals, since Mercer and Palat both got onto PP1.

Yes, the point was to illustrate that Holtz got almost all his starts on PP2 not in the zone. Significantly harder to score especially when the team struggled to execute the breakin on PP2

 

[Oneiro]

Independent of his expected sniper role, I don't see how anyone can like any other part of his game other than a touch of playmaking every once in a while.

He's not very good at anything and that includes finding the soft areas for his shot. Even with his low ice time, you're not seeing a threatening player. I won't argue with mistreatment from Ruff relative to other guys like Mercer and Palat, who disappeared constantly, but this is not Jack's future wing we're letting slip away.

And with an in-bound Gritsyuk and Heemanaho, who are both better off-puck players (I am completely comfortable saying that), there's really no reason to let it play out, Zacha-style.

 

[dgibb10]

Bizarre how this post doesn't have rates in it. It's almost like you use rates when those make Holtz look better but when they don't, you don't. Holtz had a better scoring rate 5v5 than he did 5v4. Some of that's the unit, some of that's him.

Also I can only imagine these zone start rates are taking into account on the fly shifts, which is not how zone start is typically calculated. So yes, most PP2 shifts start on the fly which is an inherent disadvantage, but of the ones that didn't, of course the vast majority were in the offensive zone.

But for context, here were Palat's PP points. All before Dougie Hamilton got hurt, all assisted by top tier players.

Here are Mercer's. 2 with hamilton, 1 on PP1 at the end of the year, and 2 that Holtz was involved in (those are nemec's only 2 PP points as well)

Here are Haula's

All before hamilton got hurt, 1 on PP "1" when Hughes and Hischier's lines were split.

I'm looking at this and holy shit PP2 was involved in a grand total of 2 goals all year once hamilton went down.

Independent of his expected sniper role, I don't see how anyone can like any other part of his game other than a touch of playmaking every once in a while.

He's not very good at anything and that includes finding the soft areas for his shot. Even with his low ice time, you're not seeing a threatening player. I won't argue with mistreatment from Ruff relative to other guys like Mercer and Palat, who disappeared constantly, but this is not Jack's future wing we're letting slip away.

And with an in-bound Gritsyuk and Heemanaho, who are both better off-puck players (I am completely comfortable saying that), there's really no reason to let it play out, Zacha-style.

Neither Gritysuk or Heemanaho will be coming next year. He's still on his ELC, he has had a grand total of 1 year.

"If you ignore the part of the game holtz is elite at he struggles as a 22 year old"

I hear Alex Ovechkin also isn't good independent of his expected sniper role.

 

[njdevils1982]

We should be thankful Bratt had a GF from NJ because you know she definitely told him to quit the bullshit with the contract talks yearly with his agent playing hardball with the Devils

now that's the way to be an influencer

 

[A1LeafNation]

Then we are down to Daws and Schmid again after Markstrom blows a hip or retires in camp (see Crawford and Bernier).

Well then don't trade for an injury prone starter.

 

[Emperoreddy]

I honestly think Holtz is already gone.

Maybe if we get well into the offseason and he's still here I'll start to think otherwise, but I think he may as well already be gone right now. Just feels like this is the end for him here, and there were a lot of signs of this being the case down the stretch, as well as any point during the season.

And even if he isn't, the organization can't go into next season expecting Holtz to be in the top 6. I think they know this.

 

[Triumph]

Rate stats for a sample sizes that small aren't statistically meaningful. Especially when you'd have to further sift through PP1 goals, since Mercer and Palat both got onto PP1.

Yes, the point was to illustrate that Holtz got almost all his starts on PP2 not in the zone. Significantly harder to score especially when the team struggled to execute the breakin on PP2

It's not meaningful that Holtz had 1.1 P/60 on PP2, obviously that's not his expected rate at all, but his results were really, really poor even outside of that - hardly got any shots on net.

And that's the point - Holtz is an extremely limited player. He wasn't put in an ideal position to succeed, but just not even bothering to WOWY and just citing bulk stats from his ES results - the Devils have a good team, if you play in the 'top 6' for a team that spent far too much time trailing, you will be okay (unless you're Holtz from 2022-23, but thankfully that player is gone forever).

From a macro point of view, there is no reason to give this player a ton of ice time because you just end up paying full freight for a guy who isn't doing anything other than scoring goals. It's very hard to succeed in this league as that sort of player.

 

[Stephen Gionta]

Moving Holtz in a deal for any sort of reliable middle/bottom 6 forward or defensive defenseman would be a good idea if there it a team out there that still believes in him to become a bonafide top 6 forward.

Some players that come to mind that could be acquired in a trade that involves Holtz are Colton Sissons, Conor Garland, Vasili Podkolzin, Carson Soucy, Jamie Oleksiak, Trent Frederic, Nino Niederreiter, Mason Appleton, Ryan Hartman, Freddy Gaudreau, Marcus Foligno, Jacob Markstrom, Jake Middleton.

 

[Goptor]

Green ran the league worst pp if you exclude the first 10 or so games before teams adjusted to the Devils.

Its less of Holtz/Mercer/Hughes/Bratt/Toffoli etc being bad and more so Green being bad.

 

[devilsblood]

Holtz played 37 minutes with Hischier all year.

At no point was Mcleod playing easy minutes.

If you want to dunk on Alex Holtz because for some reason you wanted him to be Patrice Bergeron at age 22, go ahead.

Alex Holtz is a sniper. He was a sniper when we drafted him. If you stick him with 4th round scrubs he won't be able to provide value.

When he was with competent linemates however, he scored goals at a better rate than every other player on NJD, and points at a rate better than everyone but Bratt.

Holtz played so little with Nico because Ruff couldn't trust him to play the type of minutes Nico played, and the relatively few minutes they played together supported that belief.

And I'm not dunking on Holtz, but as you say he's only 22, and despite having some very good puck skills, his overall game needs a lot of work. Why does a guy who is only 22, and has major areas of needed improvement deserve minutes higher up the lineup?

As per Patrice Bergeron? I mean, c'mon, he is miles away from that level of complete game.

I will agree though that injuries to the lineup left Holtz playing with guys who really shouldn't be in the league and that did hamper his ability to succeed. I very much liked him with McLeod, and I was here hypothesizing that combo could work early on in the season, even when at the time, McLeod was a "4th line scrub".

Green ran the league worst pp if you exclude the first 10 or so games before teams adjusted to the Devils.

Its less of Holtz/Mercer/Hughes/Bratt/Toffoli etc being bad and more so Green being bad.

Luke on the PP as a rookie, wasn't great though, neither was a banged up Jack. Nico's has just not been a good PP player.

The PP stunk, and Green probably played a part of that, but I thought the bigger indictment on Green was just how bad we were getting outshot late in the season. We went from a team that controlled play, but had it's share of breakdowns, to a team that was struggling just to survive.

 

[Goptor]

Holtz played so little with Nico because Ruff couldn't trust him to play the type of minutes Nico played, and the relatively few minutes they played together supported that belief.

And I'm not dunking on Holtz, but as you say he's only 22, and despite having some very good puck skills, his overall game needs a lot of work. Why does a guy who is only 22, and has major areas of needed improvement deserve minutes higher up the lineup?

As per Patrice Bergeron? I mean, c'mon, he is miles away from that level of complete game.

I will agree though that injuries to the lineup left Holtz playing with guys who really shouldn't be in the league and that did hamper his ability to succeed. I very much liked him with McLeod, and I was here hypothesizing that combo could work early on in the season, even when at the time, McLeod was a "4th line scrub".


Luke on the PP as a rookie, wasn't great though, neither was a banged up Jack. Nico's has just not been a good PP player.

The PP stunk, and Green probably played a part of that, but I thought the bigger indictment on Green was just how bad we were getting outshot late in the season. We went from a team that controlled play, but had it's share of breakdowns, to a team that was struggling just to survive.

Ruff tried to change the system a few weeks before he got fired. It was pretty much a desperation everyone plays defense system that didn't really have any way to create offense. Green stuck with the bandaid system of Ruff and the team was terrible because of that.

The PP was visibly bad. They had a lot of success making cross ice passes through the middle between Hughes/Bratt/Toffoli during the first 10 games. Teams caught on and took away the pass. Green still had the players trying to execute that pass all the way until the end of the season and it never worked. Not to mention the mess that was the 2nd pp, which did the same strategies as the first but did not have the personnel to pull it off. I guess having to scheme 2 different PPs was too much work for him.