Series Talk: ECF: New York Rangers vs Florida Panthers *Game 1 Wednesday 5/22 @ 8pm ET*

[Larrybiv]

Maybe not, especially if the guy coming in is a top 9 type. Wheeler isn't playing on the 4th line.

What you don't want to do, is disrupt the chemistry. We are winning without Wheeler. These fast and furious. Ask yourself, can Wheeler keep up? That's what concerns me the most.

 

[savebyrichter94]

I hope we shove it up all their asses.

 

[DevilDog99]

It was a while ago but Mika & Kreider were at their most productive with Wheeler. And if Ros struggles against the size of Florida it’s nice to have the option to put a guy in the lineup who is 6’5 and can pass the puck. Laviolette can adjust to a lot of scenarios with thus depth

I didn’t see that. Any stats to back that up?

 

[McRanger92]

I still think SN >>>>TNT and ESPN

Give me Singh and DeBrusk for every game over the US anchors

I didn’t see that. Any stats to back that up?

Nothing qualitative off hand but I remember the discussion earlier in the season being that KZ put up points with Wheeler but not Kakko, even though the underlying numbers said the opposite. @Machinehead might have the stats but I dont want to give him homework.

 

[Larrybiv]

I would do this on the bottom 6 with Wheeler healthy:
Cuylle-Chytil-Wheeler
Goodrow-Wennberg-Kakko

An unproven never been together line. Not in the PO's. If Wheels was already playing, maybe it's a different story. Let's put it this way, even though we all wanted Chytil to get in the lineup, the only question mark was would he be game ready, you know the speed of the game. Wheeler has no speed to begin with, so I wouldn't want to risk it, pretty sure Lavi wouldn't either, too much at stake.

 

[Daves a mess]

Some podcasts I'm stumbling upon seem to think that the Panthers are going to physically manhandle the Rangers. Some like Stan Fischler ( not a fan but glad he's still with us) think Rempe needs to be a factor in this series.

I think the Panthers are going to target Fox physically like Vancouver did with Leetch in 94.

Sam Bennett is going to do something ugly. Dylan Cousins is a giant doosh.

Keep your head up Fil, Mika, Fox.

Will Cuylle needs to be sent screenshots of his gf flirting with @SnowblindNYR right before puck drop.

Zac Jones would end up being ground to dust in a series like this.

Johnny Lazarus has some interesting pods.

 

[Fitzy]

Some podcasts I'm stumbling upon seem to think that the Panthers are going to physically manhandle the Rangers. Some like Stan Fischler ( not a fan but glad he's still with us) think Rempe needs to be a factor in this series.

I think the Panthers are going to target Fox physically like Vancouver did with Leetch in 94.

Sam Bennett is going to do something ugly. Dylan Cousins is a giant doosh.

Keep your head up Fil, Mika, Fox.

Will Cuylle needs to be sent screenshots of his gf flirting with @SnowblindNYR right before puck drop.

They're a damn good hockey team, and we can't pretend otherwise. They're stronger than they were last season when they went to the finals.

I really think NYR are going to need something special from Panarin this series. He has gotten by being acceptable so far, but really hasn't been a dynamo at any point yet. We are going to need a few of his brilliant plays in order to flip this series.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Some podcasts I'm stumbling upon seem to think that the Panthers are going to physically manhandle the Rangers. Some like Stan Fischler ( not a fan but glad he's still with us) think Rempe needs to be a factor in this series.

I think the Panthers are going to target Fox physically like Vancouver did with Leetch in 94.

Sam Bennett is going to do something ugly. Dylan Cousins is a giant doosh.

Keep your head up Fil, Mika, Fox.

Will Cuylle needs to be sent screenshots of his gf flirting with @SnowblindNYR right before puck drop.

Their physicality is really a big deal because their most physical players are in their top 6 and really on one line.

After that, it's really just Cousins who is more dirty than he is physical but having guys who play against top guys who can also lay the boom is a giant plus.

This group is good at punching back. If they want to take runs at the guys you mentioned, there is nothing stopping Trouba from trying to chicken wing Barkov (or Bennett and Tkachuk themselves) into next season.

 

[McRanger92]

Count me in the group that Rempe should be out there in Games 1 & 2 but Im not sure Lavi sees it that way. I think he there is some gamemanship going on with the lineup, which I do like. Panthers are physical but if they go over the line and make it personal like they did with Boston, I think it will play into the Rangers hands. The team is at its best when they are engaged in the fight. Plus if things get chaotic, break the glass on Rempe and give Florida another thing to be concerned about.

 

[NYR Viper]

The key will be the Rangers PP. If Florida wants to try to play physical and cross the line, just make them pay on the PP. We have seen it many timers before, it neuters a physical team

 

[TheWrongWay]

Root for the team to win every game. Particularly bc you have no control over the outcome


Yeah it’s very disrespectful. It all stems from analytics. The Rangers win in ways the defy the analytic models

Agree. Tho I do think New Yorkers help a little in that way some of us can occasionally be a tad annoying.

Like my first time in Boston: "Jesus, Phil, you call this a city? It's 12 feet wide and only has two buildings over 10 stories. No wonder the Red Sox play on a little league field."

Or the time I almost got beaten at a wedding in N. Carolina doing the "One size fits y'all" thing at the wedding party (in fairness to me, one of them did first call me "Yankee boy").

But I'll man up and take some blame here.

 

[duhmetreE]

I see Rangers in 5 or 6. See it going similar to the Carolina series.

Also a part of me sees a Rangers-Jersey ECF redux… going down 3-2 and this board in shambles…

 

[Rangerfan4life90]

I see Rangers in 5 or 6. See it going similar to the Carolina series.

Also a part of me sees a Rangers-Jersey ECF redux… going down 3-2 and this board in shambles…

Eh, I see this series going 7 on paper with it being a coin toss. Florida has better top end talent than Carolina.

 

[Machinehead]

Nothing qualitative off hand but I remember the discussion earlier in the season being that KZ put up points with Wheeler but not Kakko, even though the underlying numbers said the opposite. @Machinehead might have the stats but I dont want to give him homework.

Not a problem at all, I get up in the morning to dunk on Kaapo Kakko.

Line	Year	Minutes	xGF%	Actual Goals
20-93-24	22-23	229	59.46	10
20-93-24	23-24	222	51.74	5
20-93-17	23-24	288	46.87	17

Just as you thought, despite the analytics saying the opposite, they scored more with Wheeler in one season than Kakko in two seasons.

I respect the analytics. I think it's important to have guys on your team that can generate zone time and xG.

I'm also at a point where I feel you have to acknowledge guys who perform the opposite over large samples. Zibanejad is a PPG+ player with bad analytics for several years now, and he's had two good playoff runs, so you can't even give me the "when the games get tight tho" spiel (not so much Kreider, his expected numbers are also great when he's not with Zibanejad, but they score so who cares?). On the other hand, Kakko has been in the NHL for five seasons and scores nowhere near his expected. That's what he is at this point.

 

[TheWrongWay]

Now that the final 4 has been set, the team with the longest odds to win the Cup is the Rangers.

It's bizarre. Florida is generally the favorite:

Yet our series with them is as coin toss as it gets:

 

[Machinehead]

Kakko is obviously good at some things, otherwise the analytics wouldn't say what they do.

If he just did his thing and didn't score as an individual, I wouldn't even care. My problem with him is that he poisons the line. Nobody scores.

 

[Harbour Dog]

Not a problem at all, I get up in the morning to dunk on Kaapo Kakko.

Line	Year	Minutes	xGF%	Actual Goals
20-93-24	22-23	229	59.46	10
20-93-24	23-24	222	51.74	5
20-93-17	23-24	288	46.87	17

Just as you thought, despite the analytics saying the opposite, they scored more with Wheeler in one season than Kakko in two seasons.

I respect the analytics. I think it's important to have guys on your team that can generate zone time and xG.

I'm also at a point where I feel you have to acknowledge guys who perform the opposite over large samples. Zibanejad is a PPG+ player with bad analytics for several years now, and he's had two good playoff runs, so you can't even give me the "when the games get tight tho" spiel (not so much Kreider, his expected numbers are also great when he's not with Zibanejad, but they score so who cares?). On the other hand, Kakko has been in the NHL for five seasons and scores nowhere near his expected. That's what he is at this point.

Looks like you left out the most important number here, because it doesn't fit the narrative?

I'm on mobile, and not going to try to put it in a chart, but:

20-93-24 -- 2022/23 -- GF% = 62.50
20-93-24 -- 2023/24 -- GF% = 71.43
20-93-17 -- 2023/24 -- GF% = 58.62

Outscoring opponents is more important than scoring.

Ah frig, my bad @Machinehead . I wasn't seeing the entire chart.

 

[Bacon Artemi Bravo]

It's bizarre. Florida is generally the favorite:

View attachment 873894

Yet our series with them is as coin toss as it gets:

View attachment 873895

I'm obviously biased here but I think this represents a pretty nice value for betting Rangers right now. A lot of this is recency bias...the Oilers looked amazing the past 2 games but I think the Canucks were also playing terrible. Stars & Panthers have both looked really strong but I think the betting public is punishing the Rangers for not cleanly finishing the Canes, who by the way were the cup favorite when the playoffs began. It was a rocky finish but against a VERY good hockey team. I think +350 is a really nice payout for the Rangers.

 

[Machinehead]

Looks like you left out the most important number here, because it doesn't fit the narrative?

I'm on mobile, and not going to try to put it in a chart, but:

20-93-24 -- 2022/23 -- GF% = 62.50
20-93-24 -- 2023/24 -- GF% = 71.43
20-93-17 -- 2023/24 -- GF% = 58.62

Outscoring opponents is more important than scoring.

No, I did leave GF% out because you, me, and Kreider would outscore opponents.

To his credit, Kakko also drives GF% in a positive direction. I do think he has a role in this league.

I just don't know what to do with him. He creates an entire line that can't score and that leaves me with half the lineup that I want nowhere near him. Even if the GF% is good, we have to get offense out of Kreider and Zibanejad.

With Kakko's lack of scoring, and the way he drags down the scoring of linemates, I don't know if there's a role for him beyond being a ridiculously good 4th liner.

It would also improve his stock quite a bit if he killed penalties. That's something he's going to have to start doing to make money in this league.

 

[hardnosed]

What you don't want to do, is disrupt the chemistry. We are winning without Wheeler. These fast and furious. Ask yourself, can Wheeler keep up? That's what concerns me the most.

Don't know why you are arguing with me. I agree 100%. I'm just predicting what could happen if we struggle to get secondary scoring.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

The way we win is if we let them do their petty crap all the way to the penalty box and kill them with powerplays

 

[Machinehead]

The other thing with Kakko is that he's in a weird spot in regard to usage. Like, if he truly stepped into a shutdown role, I'd be more open to it, but he hasn't.

Laviolette isn't exactly spamming him when we're up late in the game. He doesn't kill penalties.

This is not Sami Pahlsson who played 18 minutes for the Ducks in 2007.

And like, that's the only guy I can think of. It's hard to get minutes in this league out of guys who can't score.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

If Wheeler plays he should be on line 4 but i honestly think that Roslovic is gonna struggle against this teams physicality so i wouldn't be surprised if he shows up on the zib line mostly because the only other option is Kakko and that hasn't really worked.

The other thing with Kakko is that he's in a weird spot in regard to usage. Like, if he truly stepped into a shutdown role, I'd be more open to it, but he hasn't.

Laviolette isn't exactly spamming him when we're up late in the game. He doesn't kill penalties.

This is not Sami Pahlsson who played 18 minutes for the Ducks in 2007.

And like, that's the only guy I can think of. It's hard to get minutes in this league out of guys who can't score.

I have no idea why neither coach has used Kakko on the pk, he is built for that and you could keep Trochek off it and run their line out after a pk.

 

[bigdog16]

I get the reasoning for not wanting Rempe in the lineup, but he would really keep Cousins, Bennett, and to an extent Tkachuk in check just by being in the lineup.

 

[Machinehead]

I have no idea why neither coach has used Kakko on the pk, he is built for that and you could keep Trochek off it and run their line out after a pk.

Probably because he's cancer on the rush and the threat of him scoring a shorthanded goal is next to zero. That makes teams way more aggressive.

Even Goodrow can play hockey if he finds open ice, he's just slow as shit.