The Roster Thread, Summer 2024

[Jacob582]

Skinner has a sharp bipolar division of his games within a season. He is either engaged during a game (his chirping shows this), or he is disinterested in executing the extra steps needed to score.

He won't respond well to benching. He'll just shut down.

 

[Archie Lee]

I'll take one Joshua, one Trenin and one Duhaime please and thank you

I went to capfriendly, extended our RFA's at the projected amounts from that spreadsheet and then signed Joshua, Trenin and Duhaime at the projected amounts plus a 15% Sabre tax (conservative I think). I then promoted Levi, Johnson and Rousek to back-up roles to round out the 23 player roster. It takes us to within $200k of the cap ceiling.

Would be nice, though it's really just changing the bottom 6.

What I think will happen:

- We will trade Joker for a bottom-6 centre. Last year's rumours of us being in on Cates or Laughton from the Flyers are the quality/contract level we are looking at.
- We will be in the mix for players of the Brendan Smith, Christian Fischer, Ryan Lomberg quality level to fill out roles.
- Levi, Johnson and Rousek will be in the NHL in back-up roles
- We will come in 6-7 million below the cap.

 

[TehDoak]

You are right... Skinner can only operate in a certain set of circumstances... that is why since he isn't going to be traded or bought out I am hoping Ruff at least starts out with Skinner Thompson Tuch in hopes that they can reignite the previous years magic. Even tho Peterka looked fantastic up on that line and has seemingly passed Skinner I think Peterka can succeed with Cozens and Quinn.
Throwing Skinner on 3rd like with Krebs or whoever the hell else we get is probably going to turn that line into mush.

Isn't that the opposite though? You have a player who is inflexible and needs special treatment to be successful. You think that is conducive to a winning environment?

You think players who outwork him nightly are happy he'd be getting premium ice time by just showing up because he's paid more?

Skinner is a guy who is going to score a lot of goals for bad teams and won't get the chance on good teams. He may never see a playoff game unless he's willing to work hard in a lessor role.

 

[Mattilaus]

(also @Mattilaus)

Doesn’t this just prove my point? Those mid '00s teams were the best a lot of us have ever seen. Lindy was coach & Max was arguably even more of a liability than Skinner. His presence didn't stop them from contending.


I'd like to think that Lindy will utilise his players to their strengths. It's premature to completely dismiss Skinner being able to work under Ruff - especially when the only alternative is to do something which hurts the team short to medium term.


He's had six 30+ goal seasons - three for us - playing under two different regimes with two different sets of line mates. That is more than 'flashes of success'.

I'm sure that Lindy will eventually tire of him - but it's also very possible that he initially gets a good season or two out of him before that happens. It tends to be the pattern.

I don't actually have so much of an issue with his defensive play so long as he's scoring. It goes back to utilising him accordingly. The problem has oftem been that we haven't had the defensive players (or system) to compliment or insulate him. Every player doesn't need to have the same role or responsibilities on a team.


You make good points - but i don't see his salary next year as a problem. We can go out & get the players we need while being comfortable in terms of the cap. When JJP/Quinn/Benson/Byram etc extensions kick in.... That's when it will become a problem & when an easier to digest buyout makes more sense.

I mean nobody knows. Maybe you are right and Lindy can crack something when it comes to Skinner. Anything can happen. All I am commenting on is his history of "success". Despite being in the league for a long time he has never contributed to a winning team. Could it just be coincidence? Sure, but after this long I think it is perfectly valid to also take the view that it is unlikely to be a coincidence and that he doesn't contribute to winning hockey with his play style. His history of not elevating his team is long at this point.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

You can't have team accountability and also give Skinner more than 10 minutes a game. The two things are contradictory.

It's not a coincidence that the main issue with this team has been "accountability" since the day he arrived. I think Lindy can make it work if he's good enough of a coach, but Skinner usage will be his #1 challenge.

 

[Dubi Doo]

(also @Mattilaus)

Doesn’t this just prove my point? Those mid '00s teams were the best a lot of us have ever seen. Lindy was coach & Max was arguably even more of a liability than Skinner. His presence didn't stop them from contending.


I'd like to think that Lindy will utilise his players to their strengths. It's premature to completely dismiss Skinner being able to work under Ruff - especially when the only alternative is to do something which hurts the team short to medium term.


He's had six 30+ goal seasons - three for us - playing under two different regimes with two different sets of line mates. That is more than 'flashes of success'.

I'm sure that Lindy will eventually tire of him - but it's also very possible that he initially gets a good season or two out of him before that happens. It tends to be the pattern.

I don't actually have so much of an issue with his defensive play so long as he's scoring. It goes back to utilising him accordingly. The problem has oftem been that we haven't had the defensive players (or system) to compliment or insulate him. Every player doesn't need to have the same role or responsibilities on a team.


You make good points - but i don't see his salary next year as a problem. We can go out & get the players we need while being comfortable in terms of the cap. When JJP/Quinn/Benson/Byram etc extensions kick in.... That's when it will become a problem & when an easier to digest buyout makes more sense.

The issue for me is- Skinner looks like he's losing a step. Max still brought that electric speed and finishing from 05-07. Skinner at 85% speed and agility is probably too much of a detriment to deploy regularly. I personally have enjoyed his time with the Sabres, though.

 

[Chainshot]

The issue for me is- Skinner looks like he's losing a step. Max still brought that electric speed and finishing from 05-07. Skinner at 85% speed and agility is probably too much of a detriment to deploy regularly. I personally have enjoyed his time with the Sabres, though.

Skinner was tracked as one of the slowest players in the league with the NHL EDGE data. Moving him off Thompson's wing opened up the ice for that line, they needed the speed to push teams back and create space behind that fast forward for Thompson to operate in. Skinner was getting no separation. Maybe it's something that lingered. Maybe it's that he's 32 and age erosion to his skills is going to happen if it hasn't already.

 

[Beerz]

Isn't that the opposite though? You have a player who is inflexible and needs special treatment to be successful. You think that is conducive to a winning environment?

You think players who outwork him nightly are happy he'd be getting premium ice time by just showing up because he's paid more?

Skinner is a guy who is going to score a lot of goals for bad teams and won't get the chance on good teams. He may never see a playoff game unless he's willing to work hard in a lessor role.

It's not special treatment... Good coaches put players in position to succeed.

Jeff Skinner had one horrible half season .. the first half of the season he was playing well and only one of the top line producing.

Now I'd love to move on from Skinner because of his salary and fit but the overreactions are getting a bit silly

 

[Chainshot]

Also, Skinner has scored with a guy like Derek Ryan as his center. He doesn't need to be stapled to a top line but his skating does worry me.

 

[dkollidas]

I’d wonder about a few players availability:



Sturm and Jan Ruuta from San Jose. Combined I could see a package of Jokhiharju OR Krebs for both. Or someone like Poltapov & a 3rd or something not too expensive.

Sturm would be a solid 4th liner, good size, good on fsceoffs, plays a smart game.



Ruuta is a RHD who has paired with high end guys in Tampa. He has played in big games. This would allow Buffalo to really mix their pairs up as well with two righties and Dahlin all playing the right side.



The other guy I’d love as a 2nd/3rd line tweener is Colton Sissons. He’s a guy who can

A) be +50% on face-offs.

B) work on the PK

C) score 30-35pts

D) is cheap at 2.875m for the next two seasons.

 

[Doug Prishpreed]

I’d wonder about a few players availability:



Sturm and Jan Ruuta from San Jose. Combined I could see a package of Jokhiharju OR Krebs for both. Or someone like Poltapov & a 3rd or something not too expensive.

Sturm would be a solid 4th liner, good size, good on fsceoffs, plays a smart game.



Ruuta is a RHD who has paired with high end guys in Tampa. He has played in big games. This would allow Buffalo to really mix their pairs up as well with two righties and Dahlin all playing the right side.



The other guy I’d love as a 2nd/3rd line tweener is Colton Sissons. He’s a guy who can

A) be +50% on face-offs.

B) work on the PK

C) score 30-35pts

D) is cheap at 2.875m for the next two seasons.

I like the ideas! But just as an aside, I think Krebs is an Adams guy, so he won't be giving up on him quite yet. Especially for depth guys.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Likewise, your points are good and valid.

I think there are meaningful changes that can be made on the edges of the roster this off-season, without a Skinner buyout. For anything to be done that goes deeper than the edges though, someone will need to go.

I think they will justify keeping Skinner by arguing, with legitimacy, that he can still produce offensively and that it is short-sighted to create the $4.44, $6.44 and then 3 x $2.444 cap hits that will extend beyond this season.

I just think the value of a buyout this year ($7.44 million that can be used to address roster needs), relative to the critical nature of this coming season, out weighs the negative of the buyout cost over the next 5 seasons (particularly when you consider that if you don't buyout Skinner now, then next year the buyout cost is almost identical, less one year of $2.44 million, without there being the benefit of a year with a $7.55 million savings).

Another example of what we could get with $7.55 million this year: Mangiapane at full price to take Skinner's place in the middle six and Iaffalo with 50% retention for the 4th line; both UFA's after this year so would not prevent Quinn/Peterka/Byram extensions.

I would prefer for any additions to be longer term pieces rather than one year rentals.

But when you look at what we already have vs what we need - there's plenty enough cap space to do that :

$23.2m space
8 F signed (including the entire top 6, likely 8 of the top 9)
5 D signed (including the top four)
0 goalies (assuming Levi is in the AHL)

Assuming we're carrying a 23 man roster - that's circa $ 2.3m available per player signed - the vast majority of which are bottom of the lineup types. Should be more than enough.

I mean nobody knows. Maybe you are right and Lindy can crack something when it comes to Skinner. Anything can happen. All I am commenting on is his history of "success". Despite being in the league for a long time he has never contributed to a winning team. Could it just be coincidence? Sure, but after this long I think it is perfectly valid to also take the view that it is unlikely to be a coincidence and that he doesn't contribute to winning hockey with his play style. His history of not elevating his team is long at this point.

I'm not arguing for signing/trading for Skinner while he's on another team. We're already stuck with him & his contract. It's about making the best of what you have already got.

 

[Der Jaeger]

I’d wonder about a few players availability:



Sturm and Jan Ruuta from San Jose. Combined I could see a package of Jokhiharju OR Krebs for both. Or someone like Poltapov & a 3rd or something not too expensive.

Sturm would be a solid 4th liner, good size, good on fsceoffs, plays a smart game.



Ruuta is a RHD who has paired with high end guys in Tampa. He has played in big games. This would allow Buffalo to really mix their pairs up as well with two righties and Dahlin all playing the right side.



The other guy I’d love as a 2nd/3rd line tweener is Colton Sissons. He’s a guy who can

A) be +50% on face-offs.

B) work on the PK

C) score 30-35pts

D) is cheap at 2.875m for the next two seasons.

Sissons and Fabbro could have a similar effect as a package.

 

[Dex]

I found this interesting. Here's the goal scorers from Skinner's draft year with 200+ career goals in order. Skinner's number one. He's also first in games played and third in total points.

Not doing anything other than showing something that surprised me, but if it were up to me - and as unlikely as it is to occur - I'd try to trade him for whatever the return. I'd rather have the roster spot filled by someone who brings a more well rounded game as opposed to a former or soon to be former top 6 guy who's likely to disappear on the third line, who's slowing down, doesn't play D, and is increasingly injured. If no chance of a trade, I'd buy him out this year and take the pain.

All that said, I think the most likely scenario is that he starts the year on the first line and we'll see what happens. Plus, I don't hate the guy. When he's on his game, playing with a little edge and getting under people's skin - he's also usually scoring and can be fun to watch. Can Lindy get that Skinner on a more consistent basis?

					NHL Totals
Rnd	Num.	Drafted By	Player	Pos	Drafted From	GP	G	A	Pts	PIM	Last Season
1	7	Carolina	Jeff Skinner	L	Kitchener Rangers [OHL]	1006	357	313	670	451	2023-24
1	2	Boston	Tyler Seguin	C	Plymouth Whalers [OHL]	969	351	437	788	303	2023-24
1	16	St. Louis	Vladimir Tarasenko	R	Novosibirsk Sibir [KHL]	751	293	336	629	197	2023-24
1	30	NY Islanders	Brock Nelson	C	Warroad H.S. [Minn.]	840	275	256	531	304	2023-24
1	1	Edmonton	Taylor Hall	L	Windsor Spitfires [OHL]	832	266	431	697	446	2023-24
2	47	Los Angeles	Tyler Toffoli	C	Ottawa 67's [OHL]	812	260	261	521	230	2023-24
1	5	NY Islanders	Nino Niederreiter	R	Portland Winterhawks [WHL]	887	223	220	443	408	2023-24
5	147	Montreal	Brendan Gallagher	R	Vancouver Giants [WHL]	752	218	208	426	516	2023-24
6	178	Ottawa	Mark Stone	R	Brandon Wheat Kings [WHL]	640	212	355	567	215	2023-24
5	123	Florida	Zach Hyman	L	Hamilton Red Wings [OJHL]	580	203	196	399	324	2023-24
1	4	Columbus	Ryan Johansen	C	Portland Winterhawks [WHL]	905	202	376	578	546	2023-24

 

[MOGlLNY]

Kevyn needs to get on the horn yesterday and get Cirelli here.

 

[TehDoak]

It's not special treatment... Good coaches put players in position to succeed.

Jeff Skinner had one horrible half season .. the first half of the season he was playing well and only one of the top line producing.

Now I'd love to move on from Skinner because of his salary and fit but the overreactions are getting a bit silly

Unfortunately it's not an usual thing for skinner to go MIA for long stretches of the season.

Also, Skinner has scored with a guy like Derek Ryan as his center. He doesn't need to be stapled to a top line but his skating does worry me.

He played with Derek Ryan and Lee Stepniak. Those guys did the dirty work and he simply went to the net.

I don't think we have the veterans to put out that kind of line at this point.

That is also the exception rather. than the rule for Skinner as a player.

 

[Aladyyn]

Unfortunately it's not an usual thing for skinner to go MIA for long stretches of the season.



He played with Derek Ryan and Lee Stepniak. Those guys did the dirty work and he simply went to the net.

I don't think we have the veterans to put out that kind of line at this point.

That is also the exception rather. than the rule for Skinner as a player.

This is the exact same shit people used to do with Reinhart. Unless he does it with linemates who are literally good at nothing it doesn't count!!!

 

[TageGod]

Kevyn needs to get on the horn yesterday and get Cirelli here.

too expensive, down year.

 

[Gabrielor]

11+ for Cirelli please

 

[thewookie1]

Kevyn needs to get on the horn yesterday and get Cirelli here.

Why, he's an overpaid 3rd line Center who's never surpassed 45 points

 

[dkollidas]

Sissons and Fabbro could have a similar effect as a package.

I think Ruuta adds a more physical element than Fabbro, and I’d prefer more of a veteran presence.

Also I’d be in favor of both moves.

 

[MOGlLNY]

Why, he's an overpaid 3rd line Center who's never surpassed 45 points

Because he's an ideal matchup center, has won multiple cups while being excellent in the playoffs for Tampa, is signed long term and is the perfect age for our window? These are all things that would help this roster beyond belief.

Choosing his counting stats to obtain his value is wild.

 

[Aladyyn]

down year.

Exactly why this is a great opportunity to get him

 

[MOGlLNY]

too expensive, down year.

if you're waiting for the perfect trade piece you're going to be waiting a long time.

 

[Aladyyn]

Why, he's an overpaid 3rd line Center who's never surpassed 45 points

Using counting totals for a player with less PP time in his career than Tyson Jost is not super smart.