Proposal: Trade Juuse Saros

[Armourboy]

None of those things are necessarily true. A nice contract for Saros won't be immovable. His contract won't block Askarov if Askarov flat out plays better. You are worrying for no sensible reasons.

If Saros wants an 8 x 8 with a NTC it very well could. You can't afford to spend big money on two goalies and Askarov is not going to be on an ELC forever.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

If Saros wants an 8 x 8 with a NTC it very well could. You can't afford to spend big money on two goalies and Askarov is not going to be on an ELC forever.

But you do know that if Saros wants that, he doesn’t automatically get it? Trotz simply isn’t going to give that.

 

[Predsanddead24]

Well even just the NTC alone would make it such that Saros is very difficult to move. Given that essentially every other comparable goalie contract has one I think it's fairly high odds Saros will get one. I know we've historically been stingy handing them out but I think that will be a very hard sell to sign Saros without one given the looming potential of an expansion draft.

 

[Armourboy]

But you do know that if Saros wants that, he doesn’t automatically get it? Trotz simply isn’t going to give that.

Then he may refuse to sign here long term. If you are him and look at the roster and the only guys still here are the ones that have one, I bet its going to be pretty high on his priority list.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

We can afford to play hardball on the Saros extension.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

When do we lose control of Askarov?

 

[herzausstein]

If we do extend saros, the last thing i want is anything over 5 years in length. Thatll take him to 35 years old (he will be 30 when current one ends). Small goalie that requires good reflexes and speed to makes saves. Anything beyond age 35, i want no part of.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

When do we lose control of Askarov?

In 5 years when he’s 27.

 

[Flgatorguy87]

In 5 years when he’s 27.

Yeah, I'm not going to stress the goalie situation too much. Give Saros a fair offer and see where it goes.

 

[Armourboy]

We can afford to play hardball on the Saros extension.

And he can afford to walk away as well.

 

[wmupreds]

I guess I don't fear Askarov busting as much as some people here, is part of the thing. I don't see anything from draft pedigree, scouts' opinions, stats or eye test to indicate anything other than him making the progress he needs to make to be an NHL starter. Anything is possible of course but there also have to be risks taken at some point

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

And he can afford to walk away as well.

And he has no control over where we trade him if he doesn’t want to extend here.

The point is we don’t HAVE TO sign him to a bad contract. If he doesn’t like our terms… we’ll be trading him before he gets to walk away.

 

[nine_inch_fang]

And he has no control over where we trade him if he doesn’t want to extend here.

The point is we don’t HAVE TO sign him to a bad contract. If he doesn’t like our terms… we’ll be trading him before he gets to walk away.

People are way too caught up on the idea that he has to be moved now to get any value. Trotz has a year to work out an extension that satisfies the team needs and evaluate Askarov.

 

[Enoch]

Askarov is a phenomenal goalie prospect. He is without a doubt the best prospect goalie we have ever drafted. The others became great with time: Saros, Rinne. Askarov has the elite talent, he has shined every step of the way.

Chances are he still falls short of that profile, but he is next level as a goalie prospect. It's rare you get a player like that in the pipeline.

Even saying all this, I still do not know how to handle the situation because the fact of the matter is, on ice NHL star level goaltending is HARD to find. When you have it, you keep it. This situation is just not common. I guess we have burned enough first and second round picks over the years to finally hit on one.... It seems like we have really shined in the later rounds rather than the early rounds.

 

[Armourboy]

And he has no control over where we trade him if he doesn’t want to extend here.

The point is we don’t HAVE TO sign him to a bad contract. If he doesn’t like our terms… we’ll be trading him before he gets to walk away.

No we don't but he also doesn't need to take one short on term without a NTC if that is what he wants. Yes he can't control where we trade him, but wherever that is only has to be for a year, and I'd rather deal with that than sign a contract I don't like.

Money and term are not going to be the sticking points with Saros, it's going to be about control and plans moving forward. He and his agent aren't stupid, they know expansion is on the horizon and they are not going to leave themselves vulnerable to that if they can help it.

You act like Saros is just going to walk in and take whatever we offer him, with expansion and Askarov both looming I have a real hard time believing he is going to do that.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

You act like Saros is just going to walk in and take whatever we offer him, with expansion and Askarov both looming I have a real hard time believing he is going to do that.

I’m saying he doesn’t get much choice in the matter. If a NMC matters so much in his next contract, too bad… because insisting on one should 100% ENSURE he gets traded.

His best path to staying with us is to sign a team-friendly deal… and then go out there and keep outplaying Askarov every year. If he does that, then it doesn’t matter that he didn’t get an NMC, he’ll be kept. And if he can’t do that, then tough cookies… you don’t get to stay where you want in hockey if you can’t perform.

Trotz should hold all the cards in this negotiation, he has no reason to cave because he knows he has a trade market and a hot young goalie prospect. If Saros doesn’t understand that yet, Trotz can make sure he comes to understand it. And again, Saros doesn’t have one of the bigger agents, even a team-friendly deal will become the biggest contract in his agent’s portfolio. I’m pretty confident this isn’t going to be as difficult a contract to work out as many here are fearing.

 

[Armourboy]

I’m saying he doesn’t get much choice in the matter. If a NMC matters so much in his next contract, too bad… because insisting on one should 100% ENSURE he gets traded.

His best path to staying with us is to sign a team-friendly deal… and then go out there and keep outplaying Askarov every year. If he does that, then it doesn’t matter that he didn’t get an NMC, he’ll be kept. And if he can’t do that, then tough cookies… you don’t get to stay where you want in hockey if you can’t perform.

Trotz should hold all the cards in this negotiation, he has no reason to cave because he knows he has a trade market and a hot young goalie prospect. If Saros doesn’t understand that yet, Trotz can make sure he comes to understand it. And again, Saros doesn’t have one of the bigger agents, even a team-friendly deal will become the biggest contract in his agent’s portfolio. I’m pretty confident this isn’t going to be as difficult a contract to work out as many here are fearing.

He's going to get traded then. Don't know why you've been so adamant on keeping him if you aren't willing to give him some guarantee of sticking around.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

He's going to get traded then. Don't know why you've been so adamant on keeping him if you aren't willing to give him some guarantee of sticking around.

I am definitely onboard with Poile’s policy of making guarantees exceedingly rare. Saros hasn’t met that threshold.

If he wants to stick around, I would put that ball in his court. Just play well.

We’ll be keeping him.

 

[Kat Predator]

I don't think re-signing Saros necessarily stunts Askarov's growth nor does it slow his development curve at all. In the best scenario, Askarov continues to develop and fully lives up to all the hype. (And that isn't certain.) The two of them become a 1, 2 combination and then a 1, 1A combination. They push one another and help one another become dominant goalies.

If we get to that point, if Askarov lives up to the hype, a decision (possibly mutual) would have to be made about Saros, him being the older player. Is he ok with backing up a younger goalie who is entering the prime of his career like Pekka did with him? Or will he demand a trade? If he's still one of the best goalies in the world, do the Predators work out a deal to move him for some return? Or dangle him like the Penguins did with Flower in an expansion draft? (With Saros being an undersized goalie who relies on his quickness and athleticism, this isn't certain, but we're considering the best case here.)

In short, it would be a problem brought about by strength rather than a giant hole the team panics about, desperately needing to fill.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

He's going to get traded then. Don't know why you've been so adamant on keeping him if you aren't willing to give him some guarantee of sticking around.

BTW, this argument is essentially "Saros will want to stay so badly that he'll force a trade over the issue", isn't it?

But stepping outside this circular box, I wonder what would happen if Trotz gave BOTH of Saros and Askarov NMCs??? What does the NHL do for the expansion draft then?

 

[BigFatCat999]

BTW, this argument is essentially "Saros will want to stay so badly that he'll force a trade over the issue", isn't it?

But stepping outside this circular box, I wonder what would happen if Trotz gave BOTH of Saros and Askarov NMCs??? What does the NHL do for the expansion draft then?

Grosnick is on an NHL contract...for now

 

[Predsanddead24]

BTW, this argument is essentially "Saros will want to stay so badly that he'll force a trade over the issue", isn't it?

Not really. The argument is that wherever he signs long term he will want assurances he won't be in a similar situation he is now where he has no say where he is traded. Sure they could trade him in the offseason and he has to play one season wherever, but if he signs a contract with no trade protection he could potentially be traded somewhere and have to play there for numerous seasons.

I just really don't get where the idea he's not going to have an NTC comes from. We've historically been stingy with them but the cornerstone type of players (Rinne, Josi, Forsberg) which Saros should be considered if we re-sign him have all gotten them. Not to mention that nearly every comparable contract for a goalie has gotten one as well just makes it seem highly unlikely we pull off a contract without one.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

Not really. The argument is that wherever he signs long term he will want assurances he won't be in a similar situation he is now where he has no say where he is traded. Sure they could trade him in the offseason and he has to play one season wherever, but if he signs a contract with no trade protection he could potentially be traded somewhere and have to play there for numerous seasons.

I just really don't get where the idea he's not going to have an NTC comes from. We've historically been stingy with them but the cornerstone type of players (Rinne, Josi, Forsberg) which Saros should be considered if we re-sign him have all gotten them. Not to mention that nearly every comparable contract for a goalie has gotten one as well just makes it seem highly unlikely we pull off a contract without one.

I think it comes from the facts that: 1) we're already talking very openly about trading him, 2) we have the consensus #1 goaltending prospect in the world coming up next season, and 3) there is very likely an Expansion Draft coming up in the next few years. These factors make it absolutely essential that Trotz not give Saros an NMC.

Maybe people are conflating NTC and NMC sometimes. If they throw him a minor NTC clause (e.g. 10 team no-trade list), or have it only apply in later years after we can safely assume that Askarov will have made his move to starter if he is going to, then that won't shock me. That would be a relatively harmless bone to throw, if it saved us on $$$ and term. But it's the NMC that is simply impossible to hand out. Because there is no way whatsoever we can be locked into protecting him over Askarov in the Expansion draft.

I have said before that I would consider a 6-year $7.5M AAV with no protections to be a reasonable target. But if Saros really wanted some minor protections, I could compromise to something like:

Year 1: $9M, $8M signing bonus, no protections
Year 2: $8M, $7M signing bonus, no protections
Year 3: $8M, $7M signing bonus, no protections
Year 4: $6M, 10-team NTC
Year 5: $5.5M, 10-team NTC
Year 6: $5.5M, 10-team NTC
AAV = $7M

That's a front-load that he can invest and make lots of extra money on over the term. And the up-front cash payouts make it more palatable for the Preds to ease him into shared/backup role in later years, plus he can at least take his least-favourite destinations off the trade market with the partial NTC. All with no NMC, so if Expansion comes along and it turns out that we need to protect Askarov instead, then we're protected on that front.

 

[Predsanddead24]

I think it comes from the facts that: 1) we're already talking very openly about trading him, 2) we have the consensus #1 goaltending prospect in the world coming up next season, and 3) there is very likely an Expansion Draft coming up in the next few years. These factors make it absolutely essential that Trotz not give Saros an NMC.

Maybe people are conflating NTC and NMC sometimes. If they throw him a minor NTC clause (e.g. 10 team no-trade list), or have it only apply in later years after we can safely assume that Askarov will have made his move to starter if he is going to, then that won't shock me. That would be a relatively harmless bone to throw, if it saved us on $$$ and term. But it's the NMC that is simply impossible to hand out. Because there is no way whatsoever we can be locked into protecting him over Askarov in the Expansion draft.

I have said before that I would consider a 6-year $7.5M AAV with no protections to be a reasonable target. But if Saros really wanted some minor protections, I could compromise to something like:

Year 1: $9M, $8M signing bonus, no protections
Year 2: $8M, $7M signing bonus, no protections
Year 3: $8M, $7M signing bonus, no protections
Year 4: $6M, 10-team NTC
Year 5: $5.5M, 10-team NTC
Year 6: $5.5M, 10-team NTC
AAV = $7M

That's a front-load that he can invest and make lots of extra money on over the term. And the up-front cash payouts make it more palatable for the Preds to ease him into shared/backup role in later years, plus he can at least take his least-favourite destinations off the trade market with the partial NTC. All with no NMC, so if Expansion comes along and it turns out that we need to protect Askarov instead, then we're protected on that front.

I guess I should rephrase. I completely understand the rationale of why we would want to not give him a NMC/NTC. I'm a bit confused on why you're more willing to give him the trade protection in the later years when we are more likely to trade him since Askarov would presumably be ready but not the earlier years when we wouldn't be likely to trade him but that's not particularly important.

What I still don't understand about your argument is why Saros would be willing to take this deal other than the idea that he doesn't want to risk injury/poor play in the next season lowering his value or just really loves the organization that much. In fact, I think your argument demonstrates exactly why Saros should especially want an NMC (or at least an NTC) since there is an incredibly obvious path that ends up with him being moved partway through his deal. Then on top of that to expect him to take a deal that is on the low end of his market value? It's not impossible I guess but I think the odds of that are quite low. I've been wrong about contract projections before but I would be shocked if we get Saros on a deal that doesn't at least include a 10 team NTC for the duration and probably more than that.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

I guess I should rephrase. I completely understand the rationale of why we would want to not give him a NMC/NTC. I'm a bit confused on why you're more willing to give him the trade protection in the later years when we are more likely to trade him since Askarov would presumably be ready but not the earlier years when we wouldn't be likely to trade him but that's not particularly important.

What I still don't understand about your argument is why Saros would be willing to take this deal other than the idea that he doesn't want to risk injury/poor play in the next season lowering his value or just really loves the organization that much. In fact, I think your argument demonstrates exactly why Saros should especially want an NMC (or at least an NTC) since there is an incredibly obvious path that ends up with him being moved partway through his deal. Then on top of that to expect him to take a deal that is on the low end of his market value? It's not impossible I guess but I think the odds of that are quite low. I've been wrong about contract projections before but I would be shocked if we get Saros on a deal that doesn't at least include a 10 team NTC for the duration and probably more than that.

I'm assuming Saros would have even more motivation to stay here in his later years... when maybe he will have started a family and be even more interested in staying put to ride off into the sunset, a la Pekka. And be open to a couple one-off years tagged on as a backup perhaps. And I'm willing to throw the bone in that direction.

Whereas the early years with front-loads and bonus money and term looming into his twilight years make him a somewhat less palatable trade target for other teams, even without the protection clauses in place.

$42M is still a lot of money. And by investing his front-loaded bonus money, he can make that equivalent to a more spread-out $50M contract. What is the MOST he could get on the open market? Around 7x$8.5M? ~$60M? Would you gamble $50M to make an extra $10M? I don't think he will. I sure wouldn't.