Way too early 2023 redraft (picks 4-13)

[ponder]

It’s way too early to judge 2023 picks in a firm/high confidence way, but we’ve also got significant new info/insights since draft day. Who are your big risers and fallers?

Let’s ignore the top 3, who all look great (Bedard, Carlsson and Fantilli), and focus on the next 10 (picks 4-13), where things get more interesting:

4. Will Smith
5. Reinbacher
6. Simashev
7. Michkov
8. Leonard
9. Danielson
10. Dvorsky
11. Willander
12. But
13. Benson

For me, Benson, But, Michkov and Leonard would each rise a bit, and I’d have Reinbacher fall the most spots, but how about you?

Click to read more...

 

[Sergei Shirokov]

4. Michkov
5. Simashev
6. Benson
7. Smith
8. Willander
9. Reinbacher
10. Leonard
11. Honzek
12. Dvorsky
13. Barlow

This is what I had as my final, honestly not sure how much I would change. Maybe swap some guys around within the group but at this point I think its still down to preference for the most part.

Biggest thing is I might put ASP in somewhere between 11-13 & bump Barlow out.

 

[Castle8130]

I like the thread. There is stil plenty of speculation for these guys. The first 3 for me are easy, but after that, 7-13 are really hard to narrow down. There are a lot of good prospects that are having great seasons. Benson is already an NHLer, Perreault is dominating in the NCAA, Reinbacher isn't having the season we hoped for, and there are a few Russian players that are getting lesser minutes in the KHL.

4. Michkov
5. Smith
6. Leonard
7. Perreault
8. Reinbacher
9. Willander
10. Benson
11. But
12. Gulyayev
13. Dvorsky

HM: Simashev

 

[Guadana]

Simashev has much better season in KHL than Reinbacher, 60+ games, 10 points, 14.5 min per game for KHL is much more impressive and it’s an upgrade than what he did previous season. So he should rise. At least over Reinbacher. He was drafted earlier - at least it’s debatable how early is to draft your top-pair defenseman, potential top line centers should be drafted higher, but first pair defenseman is more important than first line wingers. And Simashev developing well as potential first pair defenseman.
4. Michkov
5. Smith
6. Simashev
7. Willander
8. Leonard
9. Benson
10. But
11. Dvorsky
12. Reinbacher
13. Musty

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I don’t think these should be assessed so close to the picks being made. Let the picks play out. Give it a few years.

But the one name I’m not seeing a lot of is Perreault. He literally leads the NCAA in points per game. Dude isn’t 5’4 with the worst skating ever. He’s 5’11 and an iffy skater at worst.

Putting aside for a second what slot he should go in I’m not sure what the argument is that remains against him that doesn’t apply to all players who’ve yet to reach the NHL and show that what they do at levels below the NHL will translate to the NHL.

 

[Habsrule]

It’s way too early to predict. For example Benson was drafted #13 and already has 23 points in 59 NHL games. Other than the big three he is the only one to play in the NHL.

Therefore he should be #4 on everyone’s list. See it is way too early to judge.

 

[BKarchitect]

Any answer but Michkov is probably going to be absurdly wrong but yeah at this point all a redraft would be is a personal preference game which likely will not have changed a ton since draft day.

Like, I love Leonard and would have him higher and he’s been as great as I wanted to see as a freshman but I would have had him higher anyways so…its just confirmation bias right now.

We can also say “well Benson is gonna get more hype because he hit the NHLer earlier”…but I’m not even sure that’s true. I feel like he’d have more hype if he were having a record setting WHL season in lieu of playing a depth role on a bad NHL team.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I'd have a really hard time leaving Brindley outside the top 10. He might be my highest rated American.

 

[MNRube]

4. Michkov (should’ve went 2nd still…)
5. Smith
6. Leonard
7. Willander
8. Benson
9. Simashev
10. Reinbacher
11. Perreault
12. But
13. Musty

 

[trick9]

4. Smith
5. Leonard
6. Michkov
7. Benson
8. Reinbacher
9. Willander
10. Perreault
11. Simashev
12. Danielson
13. Dvorsky

 

[tsujimoto74]

It’s way too early to predict. For example Benson was drafted #13 and already has 23 points in 59 NHL games. Other than the big three he is the only one to play in the NHL.

Therefore he should be #4 on everyone’s list. See it is way too early to judge.

The points aren’t even the reason he’s in the NHL (though his offensive talent is obvious). Benson’s rookie season is reminding me a bit of Ryan O’Reilly’s in that he’s already so successful at winning board battles, winning 50/50 pucks, being in good defensive position, etc. as an 18yo. Kid is a gem.

 

[FlyguyOX]

I don’t think these should be assessed so close to the picks being made. Let the picks play out. Give it a few years.

But the one name I’m not seeing a lot of is Perreault. He literally leads the NCAA in points per game. Dude isn’t 5’4 with the worst skating ever. He’s 5’11 and an iffy skater at worst.

Putting aside for a second what slot he should go in I’m not sure what the argument is that remains against him that doesn’t apply to all players who’ve yet to reach the NHL and show that what they do at levels below the NHL will translate to the NHL.

The biggest argument against Perrault right now is that he's playing on a stacked team. It's not his fault but it's certainly context to consider and why folks aren't moving him up a ton.

 

[MNRube]

I'd have a really hard time leaving Brindley outside the top 10. He might be my highest rated American.

Yeah he’s very very good. Stankoven 2.0

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I don’t think these should be assessed so close to the picks being made. Let the picks play out. Give it a few years.

But the one name I’m not seeing a lot of is Perreault. He literally leads the NCAA in points per game. Dude isn’t 5’4 with the worst skating ever. He’s 5’11 and an iffy skater at worst.

Putting aside for a second what slot he should go in I’m not sure what the argument is that remains against him that doesn’t apply to all players who’ve yet to reach the NHL and show that what they do at levels below the NHL will translate to the NHL.

You answered your own question.

Smallish guys who don't skate well have a significant handicap at the higher levels. That's not to say he can't overcome that, but it's certainly a reasonable argument against him vs his peers.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

The biggest argument against Perrault right now is that he's playing on a stacked team. It's not his fault but it's certainly context to consider and why folks aren't moving him up a ton.

He has the highest PPG in the country, and playing captain obvious that includes his teammates.

 

[pman25]

Perreault should certainly be there if this is purely an exercise in “what we know now”

I personally mocked him to Detroit a lot at #9, sometimes #16 but man everyone would be praising Yzerman as a genius with that selection if he made that pick

 

[FlyguyOX]

He has the highest PPG in the country, and playing captain obvious that includes his teammates.

Ngl, I find it hard to contextualize good performers on the NCAA super teams like Michigan of years past and now BC.

Kent Johnson still hasn't found his NHL footing and no one expected that.

 

[Juxtaposer]

He has the highest PPG in the country, and playing captain obvious that includes his teammates.

Not to be semantic, but Smith has a higher PPG, 1.66 vs. 1.60.

 

[stl76]

Not to be semantic, but Smith has a higher PPG, 1.66 vs. 1.60.

At the risk of being semantic, believe you mean pedantic

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Not to be semantic, but Smith has a higher PPG, 1.66 vs. 1.60.

50/30=1.67
58/35=1.66

What am I missing?

Thats taking nothing away from Smith. I didn’t mention him, wasn’t taking any sort of veiled shot at him, and I’ve made clear I’m a fan.

And you are right. We are talking semantics. Celebrini is tied with Perreault at 1.67.

But Perreault is at 1.67, which leads the NCAA, unless EP is wrong.

 

[Juxtaposer]

At the risk of being semantic, believe you mean pedantic

At the risk of being pedantic, apparently I’m bad at math…

 

[Stewie Griffin]

The teams that passed on Michkov still would for the same reasons they did at the draft...it's not like that changed.

Why are people even arguing NCAA PPG when there's 3 of them at the top within .01 of eachother, and BC has 4 guys in the top-10? Clearly they benefit from playing with eachother. Celebrini is the only one who clearly stands out in college scoring.

 

[gifted88]

I don't understand the reasoning behind coming into a prospects thread where people discuss the play/upside/drafts of the players to declare it's way too early to even discuss?

Why even bother coming in here if it's that big of a pet peeve?

 

[MS]

Perreault is still small and slow with no intangibles at a low-value position. He'd move up slightly but nowhere near the top 10.

 

[Our Lady Peace]

4) Michkov
5) Smith
6) Benson
7) Leonard
8) Simashev
9) Sandin-Pellikka
10) Danielson
11) Willander
12) Reinbacher
13) But