Player Discussion Buffalo Pickers - The Search For Serviceable Defensemen, Summer of '23 Edition

[Irie]

I wish the endless hand wringing would stop already; Pesce isn’t coming here because of his NTC. It doesn’t matter what he offers Carolina if Pesce can just block it.

Hanifin is a lefty and isn’t know to be great defensively when not paired with a Tanev type.

What other Top 4 guys are even being talked about?

Clifton works for this year; EJ is here for experience and Clifton will get a legit shot at 2RHD and even if he falls short, he may still be better than what we had as well highly effective as our 3RHD next year.

Some of you guys would never be happy regardless of what KA did.

Well said, but I honestly have a feeling that everyone is actually reading Adams wrong - on both sides of this argument.

This board overwhelmingly wanted a top 4 permanent solution for that 2RHD position, but I think as we are seeing, acquiring one is not easy. Adams sniffed around, decided he couldn't get one, and went with a solid patch-work solution of bolstering the third pairing, which was by and far the bulk of the problem last year.

People wanted to blame Joker, because playing 20-22 minutes a night with heavy PK minutes, he was an easy target, but it could just as easily have been said that if there was a solid third pairing playing 16-17 minutes a night, the other pairings would have had heavily reduced work load, which likely would have solved a lot of the other problems.

Adams Addressed that issue with the depth he signed, and in doing so, he really just kicked the long-term 4RHD problem down the road, which I think he absolutely is aware of, but he is also acutely aware that there is a good chance that 1/3 of the team he ices this upcoming season will be in just their first or second full NHL seasons. That alone puts perspective on expectations.

I think he is still willing to wait and let the kids develop, but he learned his lesson that not having solid depth or physical element on the roster can lead to negative experiences for these kids in their learning process.

I still do not feel that anyone in the front office is of the mindset that it is playoffs or bust this season. They just want to continue to see solid growth from the kids and once they are further along, selling the farm for those final pieces will make a lot more sense then trying to acquire them now when the bulk of the team is still far from hitting their prime.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Well said, but I honestly have a feeling that everyone is actually reading Adams wrong - on both sides of this argument.

This board overwhelmingly wanted a top 4 permanent solution for that 2RHD position, but I think as we are seeing, acquiring one is not easy. Adams sniffed around, decided he couldn't get one, and went with a solid patch-work solution of bolstering the third pairing, which was by and far the bulk of the problem last year.

People wanted to blame Joker, because playing 20-22 minutes a night with heavy PK minutes, he was an easy target, but it could just as easily have been said that if there was a solid third pairing playing 16-17 minutes a night, the other pairings would have had heavily reduced work load, which likely would have solved a lot of the other problems.

Adams Addressed that issue with the depth he signed, and in doing so, he really just kicked the long-term 4RHD problem down the road, which I think he absolutely is aware of, but he is also acutely aware that there is a good chance that 1/3 of the team he ices this upcoming season will be in just their first or second full NHL seasons. That alone puts perspective on expectations.

I think he is still willing to wait and let the kids develop, but he learned his lesson that not having solid depth or physical element on the roster can lead to negative experiences for these kids in their learning process.

I still do not feel that anyone in the front office is of the mindset that it is playoffs or bust this season. They just want to continue to see solid growth from the kids and once they are further along, selling the farm for those final pieces will make a lot more sense then trying to acquire them now when the bulk of the team is still far from hitting their prime.

Joker was a lot closer to passable than the third pairing was, pretty consistently. And with Clifton/boosh/ej you have a third pairing to take responsibility off the power/joker pair.

 

[Fjordy]

Joker was a lot closer to passable than the third pairing was, pretty consistently. And with Clifton/boosh/ej you have a third pairing to take responsibility off the power/joker pair.

Clifton > Jokiharju

Power must not play with Joki again.

Marty and Duffer by the way think that Joki will be traded this summer and there is no place for him.

 

[Irie]

Joker was a lot closer to passable than the third pairing was, pretty consistently. And with Clifton/boosh/ej you have a third pairing to take responsibility off the power/joker pair.

Agreed, and I think he gets more flack for the rarer bad plays and not enough praises for the solid play he shows most of the time, but ultimately, I believe the problem is that Jokiharju and Power just flat out have zero chemistry together.

Power lacks defensive discipline right now and he requires a partner that can anticipate the breakdowns, reads the situation, has better positioning, and is willing to show some urgency to battle and get scrappy when outnumbered in front of the net. Jokiharju is not that guy.

Joker is not great at defensive reads. He needs to play with someone that anticipates teams quick break-outs and is willing to retreat early out of the offensive zone and be that safety valve against the cherrypickers hanging out at the blueline and busting the zone early. Power is not that guy.

Jokiharju has some tools and he is still young, (23 last season is still young for defensemen) , but he is still raw, and he's been developed poorly and misused for years now, being relied upon to play a role that is way out of his wheelhouse.

I do think that he could remake himself playing a simple game on the third pairing with a defensively responsible partner, and could become a useful player, but the question is, is Buffalo the correct spot for him to figure things out and grow into that player when the team is starting to compete and having him figuring out who he is exactly as a player when there is so much competition and pressure to win may not be the best situation.

The best case scenario would be that he trains hard this offseason with players/coaches somewhere and he finds a comfortzone to his game, and he is able to bring that to the team, and the coaching staff finds a partner/niche where he is effective - I just think that is a long shot and he would be more likely to breakout elsewhere with a staff that can put him in a better position to succeed.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Been away from the forum since the weekend. My thoughts on the guys we've acquired:

Clifton - has been discussed a lot already - I'm hopeful rather than happy. I like that he's one of Granato's guys & it's a great signing IF things work out. I would have loved him as an organisational #5 - but it's clear that between he & Johnson - there will be no more additions. Overall i think it's a mistake to gamble on his upside instead of trading for a proven commodity such as Pesce.

Johnson - i absolutely love the addition from a locker room / leadership perspective. Dad 2.0. But as a player.... I really doubt that he's even good enough for a regular top 6 role any more. He's going to probably do that for us though, based on his salary & his expected role within the room. I wonder if he even gets a letter?

Clearly - one or even possibly both of Lyubushkin/Jokiharju will be on the way out.

 

[BFLO]

and that's now interesting, unlike last season, because there's an actual d comp in Rochester.

Johnson Prow is the top pair, Johnson replacing Pilut, and I'd wager he shows to be better than Bryson as early as training camp.

Davies Cecconi played real well as the shutdown pair in the run, and bringing them back gets Roch rare stability at a spot.

Novikov Metsa rounds it out on the bottom pair. Novikov is a prospect people are real excited about, and even though Metsa has an AHL only deal, he played well enough in the playoffs to get to the top pair when Prow was out (and I wouldn't be surprised if Metsa upgrades to a NHL deal before 23-24 is done).

This is my long rambling way of saying, Bryson doesn't have an easy spot to just go in. Gotta wait to see someone struggle first.

Pretty wild that Bryson was our #6 in Buffalo most of last season but doesn’t have a place in Rochester to fit into the lineup.

It’s like saying oops, actually he’s more like our #13.

 

[joshjull]

Pretty wild that Bryson was our #6 in Buffalo most of last season but doesn’t have a place in Rochester to fit into the lineup.

It’s like saying oops, actually he’s more like our #13.

Not really. If Bryson went down, he would play.


@Gabrielor is very knowledgeable about the Amerks and his pairs are well thought out. But that post was before Klague signed and he‘s certainly not going to sit. His pairs also didn’t factor in the Amerks dressing 7 dmen down the stretch/in the playoffs.

NHL depth like Klague/Bryson wouldn’t be sitting in the AHL. It’s a balance to get ice time for prospects like Johnson and Novikov. But as @Chainshot pointed out, the Amerks went through 16 dmen last season. The young guys will definitely get their ice time.

Now that Klague is here though, I don’t see Bryson getting sent down but instead moved out.

 

[Gabrielor]

Not really. If Bryson went down, he would play.


@Gabrielor is very knowledgeable about the Amerks and his pairs are well thought out. But that post was before Klague signed and he‘s certainly not going to sit. His pairs also didn’t factor in the Amerks dressing 7 dmen down the stretch/in the playoffs.

NHL depth like Klague/Bryson wouldn’t be sitting in the AHL. It’s a balance to get ice time for prospects like Johnson and Novikov. But as @Chainshot pointed out, the Amerks went through 16 dmen last season. The young guys will definitely get their ice time.

Now that Klague is here though, I don’t see Bryson getting sent down but instead moved out.

Read:Gabrielor pays for AHLTV + playoffs every year and just copied the playoff pairs, with 2 logical rookie insertions

It's a real convo though with Bryson and Clague. I love depth, but where we these two specifically going if we're at full strength...

 

[Fjordy]

Not really. If Bryson went down, he would play.


@Gabrielor is very knowledgeable about the Amerks and his pairs are well thought out. But that post was before Klague signed and he‘s certainly not going to sit. His pairs also didn’t factor in the Amerks dressing 7 dmen down the stretch/in the playoffs.

NHL depth like Klague/Bryson wouldn’t be sitting in the AHL. It’s a balance to get ice time for prospects like Johnson and Novikov. But as @Chainshot pointed out, the Amerks went through 16 dmen last season. The young guys will definitely get their ice time.

Now that Klague is here though, I don’t see Bryson getting sent down but instead moved out.

Johnson and Novikov will play and play a lot of time.

 

[Chainshot]

Playing around with current depth charts gets messy. They really could use a trade.

 

[Chainshot]

 

[Kulich Man]

If you wanted Simashev in any future top 4 projection, put Novikov there. He is a factor now.

 

[Jim Bob]

If you wanted Simashev in any future top 4 projection, put Novikov there. He is a factor now.

I would pump the breaks until we see how he looks in main camp and then in Rochester.

The list of dev camp heroes that turned into NHL zeros is long and distinguished.

 

[Kulich Man]

I would pump the breaks until we see how he looks in main camp and then in Rochester.

The list of dev camp heroes that turned into NHL zeros is long and distinguished.

Not what I wrote. Simashev and Novikov compare favorably as prospects.

 

[Jim Bob]

Not what I wrote. Simashev and Novikov compare favorably as prospects.

I doubt you would find too many people that would compare them favorably at this point in time. There are way more people that expect Simashev to have a lot more offensive upside than Novikov. The fact that we have two post-draft seasons of Novikov not putting up offensive numbers in the KHL makes it a harder top 4 projection, IMO.

I like Novikov, but to compare him to Simashev is a bit much.

 

[joshjull]

Johnson and Novikov will play and play a lot of time.

They certainly will. But it won’t be at the expense of a NHL depth dman.

 

[Dingo44]

I would pump the breaks until we see how he looks in main camp and then in Rochester.

The list of dev camp heroes that turned into NHL zeros is long and distinguished.

Like he said Novikov isn't Simashev - just that he could slot in where we would have slotted Simashev.

Like someone else said, Novikov could be a lot like Samuelsson and play in the top 4, which is where we would have had Simashev-Dahln-Power-Samuelsson.

Novikov is more than just a dev camp hero - he's someone who has played a LOT in the KHL, which is a very tough league, and he is a unique combination of size, hands, compete, and toughness. We haven't had as much opportunity to watch him play so he's more unknown but we shall find out next year in Rochester.

 

[Fjordy]

They certainly will. But it won’t be at the expense of a NHL depth dman.

On the other hand, their priority is to develop kids like Johnson and Novikov, and it would be strange if they got less time or did not play at all because of Bryson or Clague.

 

[joshjull]

On the other hand, their priority is to develop kids like Johnson and Novikov, and it would be strange if they got less time or did not play at all because of Bryson or Clague.

I don’t expect Bryson AND Klague to be in AHL. I expect them to move on from at least one NHL dman, likely Bryson.

But if they were both in Rochester, there are several other dmen in the mix and they frequently went with 7 dmen. You listed 4. None of them have to sit.

 

[Jim Bob]

Like he said Novikov isn't Simashev - just that he could slot in where we would have slotted Simashev.

Like someone else said, Novikov could be a lot like Samuelsson and play in the top 4, which is where we would have had Simashev-Dahln-Power-Samuelsson.

Novikov is more than just a dev camp hero - he's someone who has played a LOT in the KHL, which is a very tough league, and he is a unique combination of size, hands, compete, and toughness. We haven't had as much opportunity to watch him play so he's more unknown but we shall find out next year in Rochester.

Simashev is a way better skater than Novikov and a much easier projection into a top 4 role.

Bringing up a top 10 2023 pick when talking about a 2021 6th rounder who has yet to play a real game in NA just doesn't make sense to me at this point.

Let him play in Rochester before trying to project something like that.

 

[KeyserSoze81]

I don;t expect Bryson AND Klague to be in AHL. I expect them to move on from at least one NHL dman, likely Bryson.

But if they were both in Rochester , I think you’re forgetting there are several other dmen in the mix and they frequently went with 7 dmen. You listed 4. None of them have to sit.

For having been on the team for a year, I have enjoyed the myriad spellings of Kale Clague.

Cale Clague, Kale Klague, Cale Klague, Kale Clague

My trick for his first name: this player is very far from being Cale Makar. He is rather unpleasant like the leafy green vegetable.

 

[Dingo44]

Simashev is a way better skater than Novikov and a much easier projection into a top 4 role.

Bringing up a top 10 2023 pick when talking about a 2021 6th rounder who has yet to play a real game in NA just doesn't make sense to me at this point.

Let him play in Rochester before trying to project something like that.

Novikov has also played a lot more in the KHL than Simashev and is more easily projectable.

Again - I don't think the original poster is saying, and I am not saying, that they are comparable in talent or offensive abilities. It's more their possible role.

I have Strbak and McCarthy projected ahead of Novikov but that's doesn't mean there isn't a similar path. It's hard to judge Russian players on where they were picked in the last few drafts because of Covid and then limited viewing opportunities - especially against their age group in other countries. Being a Russian 6th rounder in 2020 isn't a typical 6th round pick - and yes I am aware Simashev is a Russian.

 

[Jim Bob]

Novikov has also played a lot more in the KHL than Simashev and is more easily projectable.

Again - I don't think the original poster is saying, and I am not saying, that they are comparable in talent or offensive abilities. It's more their possible role.

I have Strbak and McCarthy projected ahead of Novikov but that's doesn't mean there isn't a similar path. It's hard to judge Russian players on where they were picked in the last few drafts because of Covid and then limited viewing opportunities - especially against their age group in other countries. Being a Russian 6th rounder in 2020 isn't a typical 6th round pick - and yes I am aware Simashev is a Russian.

Of course Novikov has played more KHL games, he's two years older.

Simashev played KHL games in his draft year. Novikov did not. Simashev put up better offensive numbers in the MHL in his draft year than Novikov did in his.

Novikov might get to the point where he is a top 4 guy here. But, he has a ton of competition and has yet to really show that he can improve his skating like Samuelsson did from when he was drafted to when he solidified his spot next to Dahlin.

I just think it is way too soon to be projecting Novikov as a top 4 guy down the road.

 

[Dingo44]

Of course Novikov has played more KHL games, he's two years older.

Simashev played KHL games in his draft year. Novikov did not. Simashev put up better offensive numbers in the MHL in his draft year than Novikov did in his.

Novikov might get to the point where he is a top 4 guy here. But, he has a ton of competition and has yet to really show that he can improve his skating like Samuelsson did from when he was drafted to when he solidified his spot next to Dahlin.

I just think it is way too soon to be projecting Novikov as a top 4 guy down the road.

It's all projections. @Rhubarb saying he can project putting Novikov in the same slot as a theoretical Simashev is a projection - just like Arizona projecting Simashev on their top pair.

We shall see. At least Novikov will be under team control in Rochester next season, and will be acclimating to the North American ice surface, the culture, the language, the Sabres team culture, his teammates, etc. Plus he knows in what city the NHL team will be playing in two years.

 

[Kulich Man]

It's all projections. @Rhubarb saying he can project putting Novikov in the same slot as a theoretical Simashev is a projection - just like Arizona projecting Simashev on their top pair.

We shall see. At least Novikov will be under team control in Rochester next season, and will be acclimating to the North American ice surface, the culture, the language, the Sabres team culture, his teammates, etc. Plus he knows in what city the NHL team will be playing in two years.

Bingo, Dingo.