Proposal: EP40 for Drai. Who says no!?

[McJedi]

EP40 the better 2 way forward for Drai the better scorer.

Both need new contracts. Both C.

Who says no?

An interesting thought exercise.

I suppose the Oilers say no as Drai is the better player and under contract for one more year at a crazy discount to his actual value, but if they think Drai isn't going to resign (and how the heck are they going to come up with the $14.5MM/per to keep him?)... the Oil instantly say yes and roll the dice on EP feeling differently.

Would be one of the biggest trades in NHL history. Two top 10 Cs in their primes dealt for one another in an all Canadian hockey trade. Sportsnet would break. The entire internets may break in Canada over such a trade.

 

[steveat]

I think a trade that might make sense is Drai for Hertl. Hertl will come in cheaper...he still shoots, hits, score, wins faceoffs. Hertl's next contract will come in at probably 2-3 mill less than Drai too!

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I think a trade that might make sense is Drai for Hertl. Hertl will come in cheaper...he still shoots, hits, score, wins faceoffs. Hertl's next contract will come in at probably 2-3 mill less than Drai too!

Hertl already has a new contract, 8.137 until 29-30.

And he's much, much lesser a player than Draisaitl as well as older so Edmonton says no. In the event Draisaitl makes it clear he wants to leave, I would imagine Edmonton would want younger pieces than a ~31 year old (at time of potential trade)

Draisaitl also has trade protection and I sincerely doubt he would want to join a rebuild.

 

[Duke74]

The responses in here are ridiculous and show how much people either hate the Oilers or are grossly influenced by recency bias.

Pettersson is a good player and he's younger, but he's not on Draisaitl's level. Tell me when Pettersson wins a Hart, Ross, and Lindsay. And shove the McDavid backpack crap because Pettersson, while not having McDavid, is surrounded by other stars and has an actual #1D.

 

[Duke74]

Stats are in my favour for this


Large gap between McDavid and Kuzmenko/Mikheyev


Don’t get too crazy, he won’t turn into a buffoon just because he doesn’t have McDavid

Funny that you're ignoring Boeser, Miller, and Hughes.

Edit: Using a laughing reaction to disregard my point suggests that you're simply trolling.

 

[Duke74]

Lol

The logic went out the door with this post

Logic has completely gone out the door with this entire thread. It's basically a bunch of Oiler haters circle jerking over their hate for an Oiler player.

 

[Infamousprime]

There really is a bunch of nobodies on here that know obsoluletly nothing about hockey besides what's trending atm, picking Pettersson over Drai is one of the the worst takes in the history of hockey

 

[ScoreZeGoals]

Both teams say no, and Draisaitl is being massively underrated in this thread

 

[AvroArrow]

Both teams say no, and Draisaitl is being massively underrated in this thread

No he's not. He's been massively over rated his entire career. It's been pointed out numerous times, he is a PP beneficiary and a beneficiary of playing significant minutes with McDavid. His average 5v5 production and the eye test both back it up.

Over the past 3 years, Mitch Marner, a guy who's considered a playmaker and a below average goal scorer, has a better even strength goal per game stat than Draisaitl.

He's regularly one of the worst defensive players in the game and is simply a PP pigeon.

 

[Homesick]

Oilers laugh.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

No he's not. He's been massively over rated his entire career. It's been pointed out numerous times, he is a PP beneficiary and a beneficiary of playing significant minutes with McDavid. His average 5v5 production and the eye test both back it up.

Over the past 3 years, Mitch Marner, a guy who's considered a playmaker and a below average goal scorer, has a better even strength goal per game stat than Draisaitl.

He's regularly one of the worst defensive players in the game and is simply a PP pigeon.

JT Miller and Quinn Hughes are 3rd and 4th in the NHL in powerplay points, does that take away from what they're doing?

 

[AvroArrow]

JT Miller and Quinn Hughes are 3rd and 4th in the NHL in powerplay points, does that take away from what they're doing?

No, but they're also not extremely dependent on one another to produce

In my honest opinion, Draisaitl is the same level of player as guys like say Kyle Connor/William Nylander, he just gets a massive boost to his totals because of McDavid and the insane PP percent the Oilers have. He's still an elite player, but you cannot deny that it is largely because of the PP/McDavid.

Over the last 3 years, Draisaitl is

2nd overall in total points (#1 McDavid)
2nd overall in total goals (#1 McDavid)
2nd overall in power play points (#1 McDavid)

6th in even strength points (#1 McDavid)
33rd in even strength goals (#2 McDavid)

Kyrou, Hagel, McCann, Kempe, Aho, Keller, Nelson, just to name a few. All guys with more even strength goals than Draisaitl. There's clearly a massive drop off when it comes to his even strength goals.


Petterson is producing very similar even strength numbers, while being significantly better defensively. Also he doesn't have a McDavid that he's being glued too.


Petterson broke out last year, so comparing the last 2 years (Petterson played 2 more games)

Overall points - Petterson 132 (6th) , Draisaitl 156 (2nd)
Power play points - Petterson 38 (26th), Draisaitl 74 (2nd)
Even strength points - Petterson 84 (7th), Draisaitl 79 (13th)
Even strength goals - Petterson 33 (19th), Draisaitl 22 (77th)

So you have a guy that's producing better 5 on 5 and is literally like 20x better defensively, it's a no brainer.

Once again, the stats and the eye test back up that Draisaitl is in fact a huge beneficiary of the Oilers PP, primarily McDavid.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

No, but they're also not extremely dependent on one another to produce

In my honest opinion, Draisaitl is the same level of player as guys like say Kyle Connor/William Nylander, he just gets a massive boost to his totals because of McDavid and the insane PP percent the Oilers have. He's still an elite player, but you cannot deny that it is largely because of the PP/McDavid.

Over the last 3 years, Draisaitl is

2nd overall in total points (#1 McDavid)
2nd overall in total goals (#1 McDavid)
2nd overall in power play points (#1 McDavid)

6th in even strength points (#1 McDavid)
33rd in even strength goals (#2 McDavid)

Kyrou, Hagel, McCann, Kempe, Aho, Keller, Nelson, just to name a few. All guys with more even strength goals than Draisaitl. There's clearly a massive drop off when it comes to his even strength goals.


Petterson is producing very similar even strength numbers, while being significantly better defensively. Also he doesn't have a McDavid that he's being glued too.


Petterson broke out last year, so comparing the last 2 years (Petterson played 2 more games)

Overall points - Petterson 132 (6th) , Draisaitl 156 (2nd)
Power play points - Petterson 38 (26th), Draisaitl 74 (2nd)
Even strength points - Petterson 84 (7th), Draisaitl 79 (13th)
Even strength goals - Petterson 33 (19th), Draisaitl 22 (77th)

So you have a guy that's producing better 5 on 5 and is literally like 20x better defensively, it's a no brainer.

Once again, the stats and the eye test back up that Draisaitl is in fact a huge beneficiary of the Oilers PP, primarily McDavid.

so you've picked one specific stat, laser focused on it, disregarded everything else, and said "look Draisaitl bad?" okay.

The powerplay is part of the game, and as you said yourself, Leon is 6th in the NHL in 5v5 points over the last three years. Scoring at 5v5 is difficult, and he's very good at it - and his defensive game has actually come a long way and has improved a lot this year by just about any measure.

 

[AvroArrow]

so you've picked one specific stat, laser focused on it, disregarded everything else, and said "look Draisaitl bad?" okay.

The powerplay is part of the game, and as you said yourself, Leon is 6th in the NHL in 5v5 points over the last three years. Scoring at 5v5 is difficult, and he's very good at it - and his defensive game has actually come a long way and has improved a lot this year by just about any measure.

I actually said Draisaitl is elite, not bad lol. I just don't believe he's a top 5 player in the world is all. I put him alongside guys like Nylander, Connor, Robertson, Rantanen, instead of guys like Mackinnon, Matthews, Hughes, Pastrnak, Kucherov if that makes sense.

I haven't just "picked one stat" I've seen more than a few Oilers games over the last couple years, and he looks good no doubt BUT his numbers are heavily inflated from playing with McDavid and on the PP. He routinely pulls the same thing Eichel used to do in Buffalo, not back check, get frustrated and play lazy if the teams losing, dumb frustration penalties when things aren't going his way.



For me, in simple terms there's 2 concerns I have with him and it's why I'm hesitant to put him in the top 5 and over guys like Petterson.

1) Very bad defensively, inconsistent work ethic

2) Massive drop off in his production when he's not on the PP or away from McDavid


The reason why 5 on 5 is so important is

#1 Most of the game is played 5 on 5

#2 It is the most accurate measure of a players impact. It's much easier to score when you're getting an absurd amount of power play opportunities and you're glued to the greatest player of this generation.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I actually said Draisaitl is elite, not bad lol. I just don't believe he's a top 5 player in the world is all. I put him alongside guys like Nylander, Connor, Robertson, Rantanen, instead of guys like Mackinnon, Matthews, Hughes, Pastrnak, Kucherov if that makes sense.

I haven't just "picked one stat" I've seen more than a few Oilers games over the last couple years, and he looks good no doubt BUT his numbers are heavily inflated from playing with McDavid and on the PP. He routinely pulls the same thing Eichel used to do in Buffalo, not back check, get frustrated and play lazy if the teams losing, dumb frustration penalties when things aren't going his way.



For me, in simple terms there's 2 concerns I have with him and it's why I'm hesitant to put him in the top 5 and over guys like Petterson.

1) Very bad defensively, inconsistent work ethic

2) Massive drop off in his production when he's not on the PP or away from McDavid


The reason why 5 on 5 is so important is

#1 Most of the game is played 5 on 5

#2 It is the most accurate measure of a players impact. It's much easier to score when you're getting an absurd amount of power play opportunities and you're glued to the greatest player of this generation.

1) He's cleaned up his defensive play this year, as I've told you. His underlying metrics are extremely strong.
2) Everyone's production drops off when they're not on the powerplay.

You've also shifted the goalposts a bit as your original point was about goal scoring. Draisaitl is primarily a playmaker that's adapted his game to be more of a shooter when he's with McDavid (on the wing). When he's not, he's the primary distributor again and focuses more on setting up teammates. His primary linemate when not with McDavid for the last three years is Kailer Yamamoto. OF COURSE it drops off.

Draisaitl has also been elite for 6-8 seasons now, depending on how you describe it. Sustained excellence is very difficult. We haven't seen that from EP yet, nor do we know what kind of a playoff performer he is.

The only five players with more 5v5 points than Draisaitl over the last three seasons are:

Nathan MacKinnon, who plays with Rantanen nearly 100% of the time
His teammate
Matthew Tkachuk, who plays with a 40 goal scorer in his own right
Matthews and Marner, who play together nearly 100% of the time

... that's it. There's nobody else.

 

[Duke74]

No, but they're also not extremely dependent on one another to produce

In my honest opinion, Draisaitl is the same level of player as guys like say Kyle Connor/William Nylander, he just gets a massive boost to his totals because of McDavid and the insane PP percent the Oilers have. He's still an elite player, but you cannot deny that it is largely because of the PP/McDavid.

Over the last 3 years, Draisaitl is

2nd overall in total points (#1 McDavid)
2nd overall in total goals (#1 McDavid)
2nd overall in power play points (#1 McDavid)

6th in even strength points (#1 McDavid)
33rd in even strength goals (#2 McDavid)

Kyrou, Hagel, McCann, Kempe, Aho, Keller, Nelson, just to name a few. All guys with more even strength goals than Draisaitl. There's clearly a massive drop off when it comes to his even strength goals.


Petterson is producing very similar even strength numbers, while being significantly better defensively. Also he doesn't have a McDavid that he's being glued too.


Petterson broke out last year, so comparing the last 2 years (Petterson played 2 more games)

Overall points - Petterson 132 (6th) , Draisaitl 156 (2nd)
Power play points - Petterson 38 (26th), Draisaitl 74 (2nd)
Even strength points - Petterson 84 (7th), Draisaitl 79 (13th)
Even strength goals - Petterson 33 (19th), Draisaitl 22 (77th)

So you have a guy that's producing better 5 on 5 and is literally like 20x better defensively, it's a no brainer.

Once again, the stats and the eye test back up that Draisaitl is in fact a huge beneficiary of the Oilers PP, primarily McDavid.

If you want a better and MUCH more accurate sample size, why not go back to 2018-19, which is Pettersson's rookie season. And since you value even strength points, let's use those as the measuring stick. In that time, Draisaitl has 337 ESP to Pettersson's 224.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

For EVG, Draisaitl has 125 to Pettersson's 96.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

You clearly cherry picked ONE SINGLE YEAR in which Pettersson had slightly better ESP than Draisaitl because it fit your narrative that Draisaitl's on par with Kyle Connor and William Nylander (lol). By the way, tell me how much individual hardware each of those guys have won.

 

[AvroArrow]

If you want a better and MUCH more accurate sample size, why not go back to 2018-19, which is Pettersson's rookie season. And since you value even strength points, let's use those as the measuring stick. In that time, Draisaitl has 337 ESP to Pettersson's 224.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

For EVG, Draisaitl has 125 to Pettersson's 96.

NHL Stats

The official source for NHL Stats including skaters, goalies, teams stats and more.

www.nhl.com

You clearly cherry picked ONE SINGLE YEAR in which Pettersson had slightly better ESP than Draisaitl because it fit your narrative that Draisaitl's on par with Kyle Connor and William Nylander (lol). By the way, tell me how much individual hardware each of those guys have won.

Probably because Petterson today isn't the same player he was when he was a rookie ?? Did I really have to explain that to you lol.

 

[AvroArrow]

1) He's cleaned up his defensive play this year, as I've told you. His underlying metrics are extremely strong.
2) Everyone's production drops off when they're not on the powerplay.

You've also shifted the goalposts a bit as your original point was about goal scoring. Draisaitl is primarily a playmaker that's adapted his game to be more of a shooter when he's with McDavid (on the wing). When he's not, he's the primary distributor again and focuses more on setting up teammates. His primary linemate when not with McDavid for the last three years is Kailer Yamamoto. OF COURSE it drops off.

Draisaitl has also been elite for 6-8 seasons now, depending on how you describe it. Sustained excellence is very difficult. We haven't seen that from EP yet, nor do we know what kind of a playoff performer he is.

The only five players with more 5v5 points than Draisaitl over the last three seasons are:

Nathan MacKinnon, who plays with Rantanen nearly 100% of the time
His teammate
Matthew Tkachuk, who plays with a 40 goal scorer in his own right
Matthews and Marner, who play together nearly 100% of the time

... that's it. There's nobody else.

I haven't shifted any goalposts, my original point was about his point production dropping off significantly when looking at even strength vs peers, as opposed to power play. And I also outlined how there was an especially big difference in goals in particular.

I mean he's scored 50 goals multiple times in his career, I think it's a bit inaccurate to call him "primarily a playmaker"

Agreed on the third part here, he's been elite pretty much for his entire career. I will never suggest that he isn't elite.



Over the last 3 years

Petterson 123 ESP in 183 gp
Draisaitl 147 ESP in 181 gp

Over the last 2 years (Where Petterson broke out in to the star that he is now)

Petterson 84 ESP in 103gp (33 EVG)
Draisaitl 79 ESP in 101gp (22 EVG)

My overall point is this. Petterson produces similar even strength numbers, better even strength goals WITHOUT McDavid, while being much better defensively.

 

[McFlash97]

Why make the Canucks an absolute powerhouse with Drai ?

Quinn Hughes and Leon Draisaitl on the same team. No thank you.

Leon Draisaitl is the games best 2 pronged player. Shooting and passing. He is much stronger than EP, puck protection and faceoffs kill EP.

The Canucks with Leon would be an instant cup contender. Goaltending makes all the difference.

He produces more at ES, and absolutely blows Petterson out on the PP.

In about 1 months time, Petterson will be back to toying with PPG and Leon will he 2nd in scoring behind McGoat again.

Only reason to really pick EP here is the 3 extra years you get with EP.

However Leon is smack middle of his prime and doesn't seem to be slowing down anytime soon. His game is tailored made to age well.

Think prime Sundin versus Prime Forsberg. Not really all that close.

 

[Duke74]

Probably because Petterson today isn't the same player he was when he was a rookie ?? Did I really have to explain that to you lol.

And do I need to explain the problem with small sample sizes?

I haven't shifted any goalposts, my original point was about his point production dropping off significantly when looking at even strength vs peers, as opposed to power play. And I also outlined how there was an especially big difference in goals in particular.

I mean he's scored 50 goals multiple times in his career, I think it's a bit inaccurate to call him "primarily a playmaker"

Agreed on the third part here, he's been elite pretty much for his entire career. I will never suggest that he isn't elite.



Over the last 3 years

Petterson 123 ESP in 183 gp
Draisaitl 147 ESP in 181 gp

Over the last 2 years (Where Petterson broke out in to the star that he is now)

Petterson 84 ESP in 103gp (33 EVG)
Draisaitl 79 ESP in 101gp (22 EVG)

My overall point is this. Petterson produces similar even strength numbers, better even strength goals WITHOUT McDavid, while being much better defensively.

337 ESP vs. 224 ESP is not similar even strength numbers.

 

[brentashton]

EP40 the better 2 way forward for Drai the better scorer.

Both need new contracts. Both C.

Who says no?

f*** no.

 

[ElPrimeTime]

I haven't shifted any goalposts, my original point was about his point production dropping off significantly when looking at even strength vs peers, as opposed to power play. And I also outlined how there was an especially big difference in goals in particular.

I mean he's scored 50 goals multiple times in his career, I think it's a bit inaccurate to call him "primarily a playmaker"

Agreed on the third part here, he's been elite pretty much for his entire career. I will never suggest that he isn't elite.



Over the last 3 years

Petterson 123 ESP in 183 gp
Draisaitl 147 ESP in 181 gp

Over the last 2 years (Where Petterson broke out in to the star that he is now)

Petterson 84 ESP in 103gp (33 EVG)
Draisaitl 79 ESP in 101gp (22 EVG)

My overall point is this. Petterson produces similar even strength numbers, better even strength goals WITHOUT McDavid, while being much better defensively.

Since when are even strength points worth more than PP points? I will take points anyway I can. The other piece that I love how people forget when it comes to Draisaitl is playoff performance.

There are only 2 players, ALL TIME, that average more points per game than Draisaitl in the playoffs and those two are widely considered the two greatest hockey players ever.

Pettersson is great and is having a fantastic season building off of last season, but I take the proven player both regular season and playoffs, with 1 more year of term at a ridiculous cap hit.

 

[AvroArrow]

And do I need to explain the problem with small sample sizes?


337 ESP vs. 224 ESP is not similar even strength numbers.

Great analysis, lets use a players stats from before he broke out to evaluate the player he is today ! Phenomenal job man!

You understand that Petterson in his 6th season, this is Draisaitls 10th ? And that Petterson has gotten significantly better than he was a couple years ago ?

This would be like me taking Draisaitls stats from 17-18 as an evaluation of the player he became in 19-20. Makes absolutely no sense, it's just foolish lol.

Should we evaluate who each player is today, or who scored more points throughout their careers ?

As of this moment in time, Petterson > Draisaitl. If you asked us that question two years ago ? Draisaitl > Petterson. Not a tough concept to grasp.

Regardless if you wanna take Draisaitl, that's cool. I'm just giving you my rationale for the Petterson. As I've said, he's significantly better defensively while producing similar points offensively (now, since it now needs to be said to you)

 

[Soundwave]

Great analysis, lets use a players stats from before he broke out to evaluate the player he is today ! Phenomenal job man!

You understand that Petterson in his 6th season, this is Draisaitls 10th ? And that Petterson has gotten significantly better than he was a couple years ago ?

This would be like me taking Draisaitls stats from 17-18 as an evaluation of the player he became in 19-20. Makes absolutely no sense, it's just foolish lol.

Should we evaluate who each player is today, or who scored more points throughout their careers ?

As of this moment in time, Petterson > Draisaitl. If you asked us that question two years ago ? Draisaitl > Petterson. Not a tough concept to grasp.

Regardless if you wanna take Draisaitl, that's cool. I'm just giving you my rationale for the Petterson. As I've said, he's significantly better defensively while producing similar points offensively (now, since it now needs to be said to you)

Didn't Draisaitl win the Hart trophy for league MVP in his 6th season? lol.

 

[AvroArrow]

Didn't Draisaitl win the Hart trophy for league MVP in his 6th season? lol.

Yes and Taylor Hall won a Hart trophy at one point too. Not sure what you're trying to insinuate here lol.