OT: On this episode of Days of the OT..

[Sabresfansince1980]

35 years ago as a HS senior I paid 75 bucks per tooth of my own money. Novacaine and a few chisel raps. Drooled bloody saliva for a couple hours after. Couple codeine to sleep and was fine by bedtime.

Now I'm jealous...I had to pay more. Shoulda just grabbed some pliers and taken care of it in the garage.

 

[Jim Bob]

I need to start a GoFundMe to get a new goalie glove.

I am struggling to catch pucks with my CCM Premier Pro glove. And last night it cost me the shutout.

Thankfully it didn't cost my team the W.

 

[EichHart]

Stock market the last few weeks pretty much put us in the quickest recession in history. Mind blowing to me how fragile society is.

 

[brian_griffin]

Now I'm jealous...I had to pay more. Shoulda just grabbed some pliers and taken care of it in the garage.

Inflation. Probably about $1000-1100 today.

 

[Buffaloed]

Advanced Stats (aka you picked the wrong year not to quit smoking)
Who is getting sick? A look at coronavirus risk by age, gender, and more

 

[slip]

Why would you expect the government to protect you (fully) from a pandemic?

Of course government can’t “fully” protect you (word I didn’t even use). But it does have the power to radically slow COVID transmission via travel restrictions, school closures, etc, to give health care system and supply chains time to adapt. Seems like it’s the minimum a government can do, and it’s failing miserably at accomplishing the bare minimum.

 

[hizzoner]

40,000 people died from gunshots last year in U.S. 61,000 people died from the flu. That is all I have to say about government policies and journalism in general.

 

[Gras]

Of course government can’t “fully” protect you (word I didn’t even use). But it does have the power to radically slow COVID transmission via travel restrictions, school closures, etc, to give health care system and supply chains time to adapt. Seems like it’s the minimum a government can do, and it’s failing miserably at accomplishing the bare minimum.

They also don't want to induce a panic, hell you have Pejorative Slurs buying places out of TP for no goddam reason.

 

[vcv]

40,000 people died from gunshots last year in U.S. 61,000 people died from the flu. That is all I have to say about government policies and journalism in general.

- Mortality rate of COVID-19 is somewhere around 20x than of the average flu strain.
- COVID-19 may or may not be airborne, while the flu is not.
- There is a flu vaccine that can help against some strains or reduce the severity. No such vaccine for COVID-19.

 

[slip]

40,000 people died from gunshots last year in U.S. 61,000 people died from the flu. That is all I have to say about government policies and journalism in general.

You R naught understanding the problem.

 

[Buffaloed]

- Mortality rate of COVID-19 is somewhere around 20x than of the average flu strain.
- COVID-19 may or may not be airborne, while the flu is not.
- There is a flu vaccine that can help against some strains or reduce the severity. No such vaccine for COVID-19.

The mortality rate is based on reported cases. The vast majority of cases don't get reported. When the dust settles the true mortality rate is likely to be less than 1%. They report it that way out of an abundance of caution, and also because there's a big pot of money on the line.

 

[EichHart]

The mortality rate is based on reported cases. The vast majority of cases don't get reported. When the dust settles the true mortality rate is likely to be less than 1%. They report it that way out of an abundance of caution, and also because there's a big pot of money on the line.

The mortality rate is so high because of hitting nursing homes hard and also Italy has a average population that is the highest in the world. I see it averaging out to around 1% as well. Very few if any people under 65 will die from this. If so, it's due to complications.

 

[Jim Bob]

The cruise that my wife earned as a sales incentive was cancelled last night.

We weren't going to go due to needing to take time off this summer for a mission trip to Rwanda.

The good news is that my wife's FOMO over missing the cruise is over.

 

[brian_griffin]

Of course government can’t “fully” protect you (word I didn’t even use). But it does have the power to radically slow COVID transmission via travel restrictions, school closures, etc, to give health care system and supply chains time to adapt. Seems like it’s the minimum a government can do, and it’s failing miserably at accomplishing the bare minimum.

I put fully in parentheses because it's implicitly impossible for the government to protect citizens fully, so one needs to think about the proportional cost-benefit of governmental vs. personal actions.

No health care systems, nor supply chains, are now nor will ever be equipped to deal with large-scale acute outbreaks, regardless of where the fulcrum is placed between government and private efforts.

Honest question, because I don't trust broadcast media to provide accurate, balanced information (and when I do seek it, I check multiple sources with known bias to hopefully interpolate a balanced reality) - but what explicitly has the government failed miserably to do?

FWIW, I do believe China was correct in quarantining a highly densely populated Wuhan to slow the rate of progression so as not to overwhelm more greatly their existing systems.

They also don't want to induce a panic, hell you have Pejorative Slurs buying places out of TP for no goddam reason.

Exactly. Simply minimizes and diverts limited resources away from where they could be most effective.

Re: @EichHart's post on stock market / recession. One can debate whether the market was overvalued and the DJIA (etc., other indices and measures) drop was in part a natural correction, but there's not been a 20% drop in latent demand, 20% drop in production capacity, etc. I'm not savvy enough to infer if the "time constant of the capacitor" introduced into the economy from COVID19, and its impact on time-based cash flows and profits is warranted, but it seems to me to be 99% linked to human fears / behavior and 1% linked to underlying fundamental structural changes.

The mortality rate is so high because of hitting nursing homes hard and also Italy has a average population that is the highest in the world. I see it averaging out to around 1% as well. Very few if any people under 65 will die from this. If so, it's due to complications.

Exactly, from sub-populations inherently at risk for any strain of acute respiratory illnesses.

I'm not an epidemiologist, but from what I've gathered, this is garnering disproportionate attention (and fear) because it is novel and not simply analogous to this year's variant of the typical flu (as bad as that can be).

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

Fun fact for us hockey fans: The Spanish flu canceled the completion of the 1919 Stanley Cup championship. No Cup awarded.

 

[Mike McDermott]

I really dislike hospitals.

My MIL got brought to the hospital from her assisted living home last night. Was told she was being admitted early this morning and as of 6:00pm when me and my wife went to grab a quick dinner,she still hasn’t been moved to a room and is still in the ER.

 

[Dubi Doo]

I put fully in parentheses because it's implicitly impossible for the government to protect citizens fully, so one needs to think about the proportional cost-benefit of governmental vs. personal actions.

No health care systems, nor supply chains, are now nor will ever be equipped to deal with large-scale acute outbreaks, regardless of where the fulcrum is placed between government and private efforts.

Honest question, because I don't trust broadcast media to provide accurate, balanced information (and when I do seek it, I check multiple sources with known bias to hopefully interpolate a balanced reality) - but what explicitly has the government failed miserably to do?

FWIW, I do believe China was correct in quarantining a highly densely populated Wuhan to slow the rate of progression so as not to overwhelm more greatly their existing systems.

Exactly. Simply minimizes and diverts limited resources away from where they could be most effective.

Re: @EichHart's post on stock market / recession. One can debate whether the market was overvalued and the DJIA (etc., other indices and measures) drop was in part a natural correction, but there's not been a 20% drop in latent demand, 20% drop in production capacity, etc. I'm not savvy enough to infer if the "time constant of the capacitor" introduced into the economy from COVID19, and its impact on time-based cash flows and profits is warranted, but it seems to me to be 99% linked to human fears / behavior and 1% linked to underlying fundamental structural changes.

Exactly, from sub-populations inherently at risk for any strain of acute respiratory illnesses.

I'm not an epidemiologist, but from what I've gathered, this is garnering disproportionate attention (and fear) because it is novel and not simply analogous to this year's variant of the typical flu (as bad as that can be).

Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

Fun fact for us hockey fans: The Spanish flu canceled the completion of the 1919 Stanley Cup championship. No Cup awarded.

Well, imo, the administration has failed in a few areas:

Firstly, they failed to educate the populace properly. I'm pointing directly to the man in charge. Obviously local government seems to be doing their due diligence, but we all know that there's a very big population who takes Trump's word as gospel. He's completely neglected the coronavirus for what it is- a mass outbreak with the potential to wreak havoc on hospitals. He's slandered this virus to the point that people think it's another flu when it's not. He's starting to take it seriously now, but the damage has already been done.

Secondly, Delayed response in testing. You want to combat this virus effectively? Encourage everyone to get tested. Dig into the military budget, state budget, etc...and build drive through testing in dense areas of the country, and make it free for everyone.

It's a step in the right direction to make it free for people with insurance, but we need people with out insurance to be eligible for free testing. They make up 8.5% of the population, and at the rate this virus spreads, if they're not getting tested then theyre probably going to be spreading it.

Elderly people in nursing homes should be quarantined, asap. They're the ones who are most likely to be taking up space in the ICUs. They need to be protected until this virus is under control, and we can get it under control effectively if the federal government acts efficiently and wisely.

I work on an ICU, and I'm ready for shit to hit the fan. I understand China and Italy have different circumstances that likely hit their populace harder, but America also has some issues that may cause some major problems...obesity being one of them.

I'm not saying this is the end of the world. We'll get through this, and the death rate wont be too extreme, but the effects on the economy and healthcare have a real potential to be very damaging.

I'm also interested to see what happens with health insurance. Obviously the elderly population is insured, but poor people are not- and obesity is a major issue in dense ghettos.

 

[Dubi Doo]

They also don't want to induce a panic, hell you have Pejorative Slurs buying places out of TP for no goddam reason.

Yeah, closing schools,business, etc...is the last resort. Right now we should focus on testing and quarantining the elderly. Also, Trump needs to emphasize to everyone this is not the flu. It's more dangerous since theres literally no vaccine for it and it spreads at an alarming rate, so be extra thorough with personal hygiene, avoid touching your face, and try to avoid touching things that a lot of people touch. If everyone did this the virus would be minuscule. The reason this virus spreads so rapidly is it stays present on things for up to 72 hours.

 

[brian_griffin]

Well, imo, the administration has failed in a few areas:

Firstly, they failed to educate the populace properly. I'm pointing directly to the man in charge. Obviously local government seems to be doing their due diligence, but we all know that there's a very big population who takes Trump's word as gospel. He's completely neglected the coronavirus for what it is- a mass outbreak with the potential to wreak havoc on hospitals. He's slandered this virus to the point that people think it's another flu when it's not. He's starting to take it seriously now, but the damage has already been done.

Secondly, Delayed response in testing. You want to combat this virus effectively? Encourage everyone to get tested. Dig into the military budget, state budget, etc...and build drive through testing in dense areas of the country, and make it free for everyone.

It's a step in the right direction to make it free for people with insurance, but we need people with out insurance to be eligible for free testing. They make up 8.5% of the population, and at the rate this virus spreads, if they're not getting tested then theyre probably going to be spreading it.

Elderly people in nursing homes should be quarantined, asap. They're the ones who are most likely to be taking up space in the ICUs. They need to be protected until this virus is under control, and we can get it under control effectively if the federal government acts efficiently and wisely.

I work on an ICU, and I'm ready for shit to hit the fan. I understand China and Italy have different circumstances that likely hit their populace harder, but America also has some issues that may cause some major problems...obesity being one of them.

I'm not saying this is the end of the world. We'll get through this, and the death rate wont be too extreme, but the effects on the economy and healthcare have a real potential to be very damaging.

I'm also interested to see what happens with health insurance. Obviously the elderly population is insured, but poor people are not- and obesity is a major issue in dense ghettos.

Not clear to me the issue re: testing is singularly funding. You can't test broadly and thoroughly if you don't have tests - the test supply needs to be adequate (both quantity & distribution) to undertake such an approach. Until supply is adequately available, I would assume "oversampling" in known affected areas is the best means to both identify infected people and get better statistics on rate of spread, factors for predilections to contraction vs. resistance, etc.

Also, if I test negative today, but contract (or indicate positive) tomorrow, what then? I wouldn't want blanket mass testing of a population in unaffected areas until there is an adequate test supply to over-sample affected areas, both in terms of # of people and time-spaced repeat tests.

I think many people also fail to recognize or at least minimize the likely drop in regular influenza and common-cold spread which will naturally occur from the hyper-cautions the public is taking re: coronavirus.

Lastly, and slightly off-topic, it's not clear to me what percentage of canceled airline flights, canceled public events, are driven out of 100% health care concern vs. economic reasons. If an airline sees prospective travelers canceling flights, they might be proactively canceling flights because their profit margin on certain legs (which are slim for airlines) is moving from blank to grey to red. that's not canceling out of public health concerns. Same with collegiate sporting events. if they are essentially break even costs due to rich TV contracts, the stadium attendance is "gravy" and can be canceled without significant P&L impact (or if not profitable, they can be taken as a writeoff to offset profits elsewhere).

I accept that the mortality rate will be higher than influenza, but still believe it is being overstated. More data is needed. Good luck at your ICU, hopefully you don't see it.

 

[Jim Bob]

Well, imo, the administration has failed in a few areas:

Firstly, they failed to educate the populace properly. I'm pointing directly to the man in charge. Obviously local government seems to be doing their due diligence, but we all know that there's a very big population who takes Trump's word as gospel. He's completely neglected the coronavirus for what it is- a mass outbreak with the potential to wreak havoc on hospitals. He's slandered this virus to the point that people think it's another flu when it's not. He's starting to take it seriously now, but the damage has already been done.

Secondly, Delayed response in testing. You want to combat this virus effectively? Encourage everyone to get tested. Dig into the military budget, state budget, etc...and build drive through testing in dense areas of the country, and make it free for everyone.

It's a step in the right direction to make it free for people with insurance, but we need people with out insurance to be eligible for free testing. They make up 8.5% of the population, and at the rate this virus spreads, if they're not getting tested then theyre probably going to be spreading it.

Elderly people in nursing homes should be quarantined, asap. They're the ones who are most likely to be taking up space in the ICUs. They need to be protected until this virus is under control, and we can get it under control effectively if the federal government acts efficiently and wisely.

I work on an ICU, and I'm ready for shit to hit the fan. I understand China and Italy have different circumstances that likely hit their populace harder, but America also has some issues that may cause some major problems...obesity being one of them.

I'm not saying this is the end of the world. We'll get through this, and the death rate wont be too extreme, but the effects on the economy and healthcare have a real potential to be very damaging.

I'm also interested to see what happens with health insurance. Obviously the elderly population is insured, but poor people are not- and obesity is a major issue in dense ghettos.

You are correct, it isn't another flu.

https://podcasts.google.com/?feed=a...EwjjjuKr05LoAhXPFTQIHQr_DzEQieUEegQIBRAE&ep=6

How big is the problem?

As of March 9th, there have been 109,577 reported cases of COVID-19 globally, and 3809 deaths. This means that there is a 3.5% case fatality rate, or 3.5% of people that we know to be infected with the disease, have died. However, as it is early in our understanding of the outbreak, it is likely that there are many more people infected but we are not detecting them because they are experiencing mild symptoms. A larger number of cases would lower the death rate, so its possible we will see this number go down with time.

Comparing COVID-19 to two other coronaviruses, SARS and MERS, we can see that the COVID-19 outbreak is already much more widespread, although seems to have a lower death rate.

We can also compare COVID-19 to another widespread respiratory virus that we encounter each winter: influenza. As of March 9th in the US, there are a total of 423 cases of COVID-19 and 19 deaths. In comparison, there have been at least 34 million cases of influenza detected and 20,000 deaths in the US so far this year. Most of the cases of COVID-19 so far have been detected in California and Washington. So overall, the immediate risk of infection in most of the US is currently very low, and the number of people currently afflicted pales in comparison to influenza which is a viral illness that contributes to a huge amount of morbidity and mortality every year.

Comparing the spread of COVID-19 to other public health concerns, such as chronic disease, also helps to shed some light on the magnitude of the problem. Currently about 1.21 million people in the US have cardiovascular disease, and 859,000 people die each year of heart disease and stroke – thats of all deaths! Many of the chronic diseases we face today that ultimately lead to heart disease and stroke – hypertension, obesity, type 2 diabetes, hyperlipidemia, metabolic syndrome, fatty liver, chronic kidney disease – can be prevented and/or treated through lifestyle factors. These factors include regular activity, healthy nutrition, stress management, good sleep, and avoiding substances such as tobacco and alcohol. Although these diseases affect a huge proportion of our population, because they are slow to develop over years and decades, they dont seem to raise the same level of concern as we currently have over COVID-19.

Given the information we have to date, its likely the coronavirus will continue to spread and more cases will be identified. By practicing basic respiratory infection precautions and doing our part to stay informed and take the outbreak seriously, hopefully we can work together to prevent this from becoming a global problem. Currently, the risk of transmission in most countries around the world, including the US, is very low and those who are generally healthy are expected to develop mild-moderate symptoms. Lets also use this outbreak as a reminder that every year the flu affects and kills huge numbers of people, and if we bring the same level of concern and precautions to every flu season that we have now, we may be able to prevent unnecessary suffering and deaths each winter. Additionally, the epidemic of chronic disease we are experiencing, although much more insidious than the evolution of COVID-19 over the past several weeks, is one we have a lot of control over and a lot of potential to reverse if we can bring a similar level concern to that we have raised for the coronavirus.

Influenza is much more widespread and has killed 1000x the number of Americans than COVID-19 has.

The key to taking COVID-19 seriously is to treat it like other viruses and stress that people take basic respiratory infection precautions.

But, it does seem to me that the response to COVID-19 has been greatly exaggerated when compared to the response to the flu this cold & flu season.

 

[TehDoak]

I really dislike hospitals.

My MIL got brought to the hospital from her assisted living home last night. Was told she was being admitted early this morning and as of 6:00pm when me and my wife went to grab a quick dinner,she still hasn’t been moved to a room and is still in the ER.

Hope this got sorted. It's likely an issue with available beds. My wife's hospital has been at full capacity due to the flu season and likely will continue to be with Coronavirus.

 

[TehDoak]

You are correct, it isn't another flu.

https://podcasts.google.com/?feed=a...EwjjjuKr05LoAhXPFTQIHQr_DzEQieUEegQIBRAE&ep=6



Influenza is much more widespread and has killed 1000x the number of Americans than COVID-19 has.

The key to taking COVID-19 seriously is to treat it like other viruses and stress that people take basic respiratory infection precautions.

But, it does seem to me that the response to COVID-19 has been greatly exaggerated when compared to the response to the flu this cold & flu season.

As others have mentioned:

A) We have NO idea how far the outbreak is because we don't have adequate testing kits. The closest thing we can go by is people in quarantine, but that doesn't cover people with mild symptoms who don't go to the doctor.

B) Again, the numbers are skewed because we don't have accurate testing numbers, but if the 2% fatality rate does hold up, the response should absolutely be greater. Flu has a .1% Fatality rate. That number could drop as MORE tests are put out, but the sample size is growing.

Part of the response is fear of the unknown. I think, given what we know, the responses (less public events, WFH if you can, etc) are reasonable. The biggest issue now is getting testing kits available and getting accurate information out to people. Without the data, it's impossible to have a plan of attack to deal with it. The disinformation being spread by the white house isn't helping.

 

[Mike McDermott]

Hope this got sorted. It's likely an issue with available beds. My wife's hospital has been at full capacity due to the flu season and likely will continue to be with Coronavirus.

What really for under my skin was when I got there around 4pm, the person who gave me my visitor pass and asked who I was seeing said “she’s being admitted (which I knew) and they have a room assigned and it is marked as ready.” To make matters worse, when she finally got to her room and we could see her upstairs she didn’t get a dinner because of the time she got up there. Which I get, she got up there after dinner time and I bought her something from the Tim Hortons downstairs. What made it worse is the nurse who was talking to us and helping her figure out some things told us “I got told I was getting a patient at 1pm and the room has been clean since 2pm.” So she basically sat in the ER for almost 5 hours simply waiting to be transferred.

 

[Jim Bob]

As others have mentioned:

A) We have NO idea how far the outbreak is because we don't have adequate testing kits. The closest thing we can go by is people in quarantine, but that doesn't cover people with mild symptoms who don't go to the doctor.

B) Again, the numbers are skewed because we don't have accurate testing numbers, but if the 2% fatality rate does hold up, the response should absolutely be greater. Flu has a .1% Fatality rate. That number could drop as MORE tests are put out, but the sample size is growing.

Part of the response is fear of the unknown. I think, given what we know, the responses (less public events, WFH if you can, etc) are reasonable. The biggest issue now is getting testing kits available and getting accurate information out to people. Without the data, it's impossible to have a plan of attack to deal with it. The disinformation being spread by the white house isn't helping.

Once testing kits become more widely available, it is much more likely that we see that this virus is more widespread and the mortality rate is way lower.

The number one reason for concern for this is the higher mortality rate. But, if that is being overstated currently due to a lack of testing, then that gets to people saying that a lot of the panic to this virus is overstated.

I do believe that we have enough data to reinforce that people take basic respiratory infection precautions.

Wash your hands, you filthy animals!

Cover your cough.

If you have a fever and/or a persistent cough, go see your PCP and stay home from work.

And other, basic, common sense stuff like that.

But, creating panic behaviors among society at large that leads to behaviors like hoarding medical masks and hand sanitizer isn't a good way to respond to this virus. Shutting down all sorts of things like university campuses and any events with 100+ spectators also falls into this realm, to me.

There is plenty of disinformation being spread about this virus and a reasoned, commonsense approach to this has been in short supply, IMO.

 

[slip]

There is plenty of disinformation being spread about this virus and a reasoned, commonsense approach to this has been in short supply, IMO.

Comparing COVID-19 to the flu is the first bit of misinformation that needs to stop. It's downright stupid and dangerous.

I find the people telling me not to panic (Trump, Musk) are those who need a strong market/economy to save their hides. I find the people telling me to be very cautious and to take this very seriously are health care and infectious disease specialists who prioritize public health over short term economic interests. I'll stick with the latter.

 

[slip]

A major of effect of COVID-19 pandemic is playing out as we speak in global markets. For years markets have been propped up by easy monetary policy by central banks across the globe that has produced an unprecedented bubble in both state and corporate/small business debt. Well it appears that bubble may have been pricked by the coronavirus and if so there's no turning back. I think we're about to face the most challenging 12-36 months of economic hardship we've seen at least since the financial meltdown of 10 years ago, and probably worse than anything we've ever experienced.

Perhaps no sector of the US economy is as fragile and plagued by debt as the energy sector, particularly gas and shale companies. The Saudi/Russian sparing over production cuts caused the worst single day decline in oil's history on Monday, bringing it below 28 bucks a barrel (although it's higher now). To cut to the chase, there is no way a majority of these companies survive going forward as they will not have the revenue to pay the bonds coming due to the triggering of debt covenants by a decline in the underlying assets.

In short, if we're waiting for TPegs to drill another well to make some money, we'll be waiting a while.