Buffalo Bills Week 16: Bills at Pats -- Division on the line

[Zman5778]

Not even going to link the previous thread as it got completely de-railed by a troll.

REMINDER: Do not feed trolls.

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[Dubi Doo]

Man, I'm way less confident going against TB than I am going against the Pats again. I think the Pats games are 50/50. TB? More like 25/75.

Our offense has just been too inconsistent for me to feel any sort of confidence in this game. I haven't felt that way in a LONG time.

TB has weapons on the outside that can take advantage of the injury to Tre White. They have a good o-line who should give Brady time in the pocket while also creating holes for the running game. AND they have, who I believe to be- the best player in the league right now slinging the ball around. I'm thinking the defense is going to look a lot like they did against Indy a couple of weeks ago.

Our only hope is if the offense absolutely balls out, which is possible. TB is stout against the run, and blah against the pass, though they do get a lot of sacks. I think we'll put up a reasonable amount of points, but we'll be inconsistent as hell, which will cost us the game.

Tamp-34
Buffalo-27

But we're down 2+ scores until garbage time.

 

[Zman5778]

TB has weapons on the outside that can take advantage of the injury to Tre White. They have a good o-line who should give Brady time in the pocket while also creating holes for the running game. AND they have, who I believe to be- the best player in the league right now slinging the ball around. I'm thinking the defense is going to look a lot like they did against Indy a couple of weeks ago.

Godwin is going to brutalize us. I wouldn't be shocked at a 15/200/2 line out of him.

 

[SundherDome]

Godwin, Evans, Gronk will kill us in the air. We won't get pressure on Tom because he gets the ball out so quickly. Fournette will eat us up in the run game. I expect something around 42-22 and to be on the outside of the playoff picture after Pitt beats Minnesota tomorrow.

 

[Taro Tsujimoto]

 

[Dubi Doo]

Godwin is going to brutalize us. I wouldn't be shocked at a 15/200/2 line out of him.

Godwin, Evans, Gronk will kill us in the air. We won't get pressure on Tom because he gets the ball out so quickly. Fournette will eat us up in the run game. I expect something around 42-22 and to be on the outside of the playoff picture after Pitt beats Minnesota tomorrow.

Yeah, I think my 34pt prediction is pretty conservative. 40+ is realistic.

 

[EmeraldCitySabre]

Bills don't NEED to win this game, but if they lose, they may NEED to win out or else they'll be in major danger of missing the playoffs. Just did the playoff machine and if Buffalo goes 3-2, then it depended on the Cin-Cle game for us.

 

[brian_griffin]

Not even going to link the previous thread as it got completely de-railed by a troll.

REMINDER: Do not feed trolls.

IMO, I wasn't feeding him in the final post of the prior thread. I was taking away his dinner and sending him to bed for misbehavior. That said, wholly appropriate to close that thread, thank you.

 

[kirby11]

Agree with the comments above, I see no feasible way we win this game unless the offense magically goes full end of 2020 mode and puts up 40+. Brady will have an eternity to throw on every pass play and Gronk and Godwin will eat us alive over the middle. Evans will Moss whoever gets put on him if the Bills dare to switch to man coverage. Their o-line and Fournette will run over us all day, which will set up the killer 15 yard play action passes with at least 10+ more RAC yards because the linebackers have to sell out to have any chance to slow down the run game.

Feels bad to assume they have absolutely no shot going into the game, but with how shitty their execution is on offense and the inability to stop the run on defense, I don't see any remotely viable path to victory.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Bills don't NEED to win this game, but if they lose, they may NEED to win out or else they'll be in major danger of missing the playoffs. Just did the playoff machine and if Buffalo goes 3-2, then it depended on the Cin-Cle game for us.

For what it's worth, the Bills playoff chances have actually gone up to about 81% from about 75% according to 538 with 10-7 locked in (with losses to TB and NE and wins against ATL, CAR, and NYJ). The NYT playoff machine is even higher at 85%. As an addendum, if the Bills lose to the Bucs but then win out they are mathematically locked into the playoffs at 11-6.

For the 10-7 case I don't think you can say it will come down to one game outside of our results. Baltimore has a brutal schedule coming in and could very easily drop 4 of 5 the way they've looked lately. The AFC North and AFC West still will cannibalize each other quite a bit as well. According to the playoff machine we're rooting for LV over KC next week, which seems a little counter intuitive, but there are plenty of more tough games for both teams on the schedule, and if LAC wins the AFC West and KC drops down to our record they're one of the few teams we have tiebreakers on (regardless of whether or not there are other teams involved; they went 5-0 against the NFC)

Here's the %'s of each team to make the playoffs with us locked into 10-7 with losses to NE and TB:
New England - in
Tennessee - 97%
Kansas City - 88%
Baltimore - 82%
Buffalo - 82%
LA Chargers - 78%
Indianapolis - 59%
Cincinnati - 44%
Cleveland - 21%
Pittsburgh - 17%
Denver - 17%
Vegas - 8%
Miami - 6% (easy schedule coming in until the Pats in the last week of the season)


TL;DR version: There's plenty of losses to be scattered around the contenders just from the North and the West having to play each other and among themselves so often, and the Colts do not have an easy road in with games against Arizona, New England, and Vegas as well.

 

[Royisgone]

Godwin, Evans, Gronk will kill us in the air. We won't get pressure on Tom because he gets the ball out so quickly. Fournette will eat us up in the run game. I expect something around 42-22 and to be on the outside of the playoff picture after Pitt beats Minnesota tomorrow.

We can lose this game to Tampa and still have a 90% shot at making the playoffs, if we win out after Tampa--which we could easily do.

I think we are the better team (compared to NE) and given normal weather, will beat them in Foxboro.

The other games will be huge Bills wins.

Because this Tampa game is the type that makes Bills fans say "automatic loss" I think there is a chance we win it.

That's usually how it works.

Keeps it maddening that way.

 

[misterchainsaw]

We can lose this game to Tampa and still have a 90% shot at making the playoffs, if we win out after Tampa--which we could easily do.

I think we are the better team (compared to NE) and given normal weather, will beat them in Foxboro.

The other games will be huge Bills wins.

Because this Tampa game is the type that makes Bills fans say "automatic loss" I think there is a chance we win it.

That's usually how it works.

Keeps it maddening that way.

It's not 90% if we win out after Tampa. It's in. Period. 100% no exceptions. It'd also force New England to win out (with a couple of tough games in Indy and @Miami left) to keep us from winning the division from them.

And I agree that this is the kind of game they rekindle hope in. Tampa won't have AB, and our pass defense won't go from the very best in the league to below average just because we're missing Tre, as great as he is. The Poyer/Hyde safety duo is a big part of the success of the pass defense too.

EDIT: Tampa runs the least of any team in the NFL. They run off of the pass. They're not built to establish the run then pass off of run looks.

 

[whiplash]

Remember last season, when we thought we'd be done with intricate playoff math for the foreseeable future? And even though we are unlikely to miss, I've little-to-no confidence going in. Anyway, this is all very familiar, feels natural to be back in the Buffalo sports groove :/

 

[Husko]

Upside: this all but guarantees they won't have to play a playoff game in horrible buffalo weather

 

[Buffaloed]

RIP Mark Pike
Former Bills special teams ace Mark Pike dies at 57
Former Buffalo Bills defensive lineman Mark Pike died Wednesday at the age of 57 following a battle with non-Hodgkins lymphoma.
Pike spent his entire 13-year career with the Bills, who drafted him in the seventh round out of Georgia Tech in 1986. After missing his rookie season because of a shoulder injury, Pike went on to play 173 regular-season games for the Bills and another 20 in the postseason, including all four Super Bowl appearances. He was a key member of the Bills' special teams during the franchise's glory days.

 

[Dubi Doo]

My man is getting back to his pre COVID form:

 

[brian_griffin]

For what it's worth, the Bills playoff chances have actually gone up to about 81% from about 75% according to 538 with 10-7 locked in (with losses to TB and NE and wins against ATL, CAR, and NYJ). The NYT playoff machine is even higher at 85%. As an addendum, if the Bills lose to the Bucs but then win out they are mathematically locked into the playoffs at 11-6.

For the 10-7 case I don't think you can say it will come down to one game outside of our results. Baltimore has a brutal schedule coming in and could very easily drop 4 of 5 the way they've looked lately. The AFC North and AFC West still will cannibalize each other quite a bit as well. According to the playoff machine we're rooting for LV over KC next week, which seems a little counter intuitive, but there are plenty of more tough games for both teams on the schedule, and if LAC wins the AFC West and KC drops down to our record they're one of the few teams we have tiebreakers on (regardless of whether or not there are other teams involved; they went 5-0 against the NFC)

Here's the %'s of each team to make the playoffs with us locked into 10-7 with losses to NE and TB:
New England - in
Tennessee - 97%
Kansas City - 88%
Baltimore - 82%
Buffalo - 82%
LA Chargers - 78%
Indianapolis - 59%
Cincinnati - 44%
Cleveland - 21%
Pittsburgh - 17%
Denver - 17%
Vegas - 8%
Miami - 6% (easy schedule coming in until the Pats in the last week of the season)


TL;DR version: There's plenty of losses to be scattered around the contenders just from the North and the West having to play each other and among themselves so often, and the Colts do not have an easy road in with games against Arizona, New England, and Vegas as well.

Not directed to you singularly, but i folks want to put credence in those predictors this "early" in the season (I assume they are Monte-Carlos or similar with or without some constraining assumptions on the inputs), then one shouldn't necessarily pay attention to the probabilities. One should examine the differences in probabilities between the Bills and any/all teams below them until you get to a "break" or "cliff" in those percentages. So what stands out to me is the ~20% drop between LAC and IND and the 15% drop between IND and CIN for the 6th, 7th, 8th slots. Bills and LAC probabilities are essentially equal with this many games remaining in season.

 

[misterchainsaw]

Not directed to you singularly, but i folks want to put credence in those predictors this "early" in the season (I assume they are Monte-Carlos or similar with or without some constraining assumptions on the inputs), then one shouldn't necessarily pay attention to the probabilities. One should examine the differences in probabilities between the Bills and any/all teams below them until you get to a "break" or "cliff" in those percentages. So what stands out to me is the ~20% drop between LAC and IND and the 15% drop between IND and CIN for the 6th, 7th, 8th slots. Bills and LAC probabilities are essentially equal with this many games remaining in season.

The NYT playoff machine uses the Sagarain ratings for the probabilities of the result of each game that you don't specify a result for, and I believe 538 uses their own ELO ratings for that. But yes they're adjusted monte carlo simulations (for those that don't know, it's basically a brute force method where the season is simulated a certain number of times - about 18,000 times in NYT's case and 50,000 times in 538's case - you get about a 5% variance on the NYT and about 2% on 538's)

 

[kirby11]

Remember last season, when we thought we'd be done with intricate playoff math for the foreseeable future? And even though we are unlikely to miss, I've little-to-no confidence going in. Anyway, this is all very familiar, feels natural to be back in the Buffalo sports groove :/

For me, the most frustrating thing about this season is how much they've beaten themselves compared to last year. Looking back at the losses of 2020:
-Outclassed by KC 2x (with the Chiefs only ever playing up to their full potential against us in the AFCCG)
-1 in 1,000 odds Hail Mary goes against them
-Weird TEN game where they got screwed over by the league accommodating Tennessee and had a bunch of injuries

Meanwhile, looking at this year's losses...yuck

 

[misterchainsaw]

For me, the most frustrating thing about this season is how much they've beaten themselves compared to last year. Looking back at the losses of 2020:
-Outclassed by KC 2x (with the Chiefs only ever playing up to their full potential against us in the AFCCG)
-1 in 1,000 odds Hail Mary goes against them
-Weird TEN game where they got screwed over by the league accommodating Tennessee and had a bunch of injuries

Meanwhile, looking at this year's losses...yuck

The 4th quarter failures in the first two losses are most concerning to me (obviously monday had some extenuating circumstances and the offense even did enough to win if Bass hits from close range twice). I'm not one to pile on Daboll as most of you probably know if you frequent the threads on game days, but where are the plays you're saving up when you need them, even aside from the lack of creativity in general? We had 5 4th quarter possessions in those two games that we lost by 3 points each, and only got into FG range on one of them (when Allen slipped on 4th and 1 vs. the Titans). That's not good enough from anybody involved. Our performance in close games late has been absolutely putrid. Last year we scored late TD's against Arizona (even though the hail mary took the game away), LA Rams, Miami (x2 - one to go up 24-20 and then to put them away 31-20), Vegas (turned a 17-16 game in the 4th quarter to 30-16), even the first NE game we scored 10 to their 7 to win 24-21.

 

[TheStorm]

For me, the most frustrating thing about this season is how much they've beaten themselves compared to last year. Looking back at the losses of 2020:
-Outclassed by KC 2x (with the Chiefs only ever playing up to their full potential against us in the AFCCG)
-1 in 1,000 odds Hail Mary goes against them
-Weird TEN game where they got screwed over by the league accommodating Tennessee and had a bunch of injuries

Meanwhile, looking at this year's losses...yuck

Like a completely different team. All of the chemistry is gone.

 

[Der Jaeger]

Thinking that this season is like 1989, so I’m looking at the off season. Id approach it the exact same way Beane did last season: identify your weakness and fix it, mainly in the draft.

The #1 problem is that the Bills do not have a 1DT power player. Taking Basham and passing on Alm McNeill kind of hurt. They’ll get a redo. I’d look at Jordan Davis from UGA in the first.

The Bills interior OL is bad. I hate paying for guards in free agency, and drafting one high is a better idea. Zion Johnson from BC or Schmidt from Minnesota would be good fits.

Then I’d work to get Brian Robinson from Alabama. The Bills need a big, workhorse back. He’d do well in that role.

 

[Chainshot]

Very sad. I remember seeing him play live.

 

[Buff15Sabres]

Call me crazy, but I think we match up pretty well against TB.

Tampa has a great rush defense and a below average pass def. Their offense is all about passing (#1 in the league) with a below average running game.

The Bills should play it like the Seattle game last year and not even try to run the ball.

Allen with >45 passes and Fournette with <20 carries should be a recipe for success.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

Pressure Brady win the game