Another Late Season Surge

[Burrowsaurus]

No, it became a Boucher (or xxx pick as I wrote) pick because we went on a late season surge and jumped from picking 3 to picking 10 in the final 2 weeks of the season. The late season surge was the reason we ended up with Boucher instead of the consensus top 9. Sens lose against Toronto in the final game, they have their choice of their top prospect at 8. Thts not even factoring in them going 9-2-1 in the lats 12 games of the year, going from picking 3rd to 10th in the final 2 weeks.

Sub Boucher out for whoever. It was the difference between picking in the very clear top 9 to picking 10.

Dropping in the draft can be the difference between getting the guy you want and the guy we settle for.

Well we could have picked Wyatt Johnson?

Are you hundred percent sure W edidnt have Boucher ahead of Guenther?

3->10 is obviously a massive jump. Thats not possible right now.

 

[Micklebot]

NHL teams don’t view things like scouting services, they have their guys and they want their guys. It being more open is irrelevant, as they will be taking their top rated player either way. It’s a jump ball for fans, because they view the guys as though they are in tiers, but it’s not for the teams. Picking higher gives you a better chance of getting that guy.

Look at 2020, reading every service and talking head there was a tier of 7/8 players after the top 3 and it doesn’t much matter who you take, that was the view in here for the most part with what, 8 different guys being wanted. It was thought that all were valued about the same in the same tier. Of course that isn’t actually the case and the Sens had Sanderson atop, and if they missed out on him, they are in an insanely worse spot right now.

No different than this year, the Sens have a guy that they want, same as they did with Sanderson. They aren’t going to be happy, and they shouldn’t be, if they miss out in the chance to take them because of dropping in the rankings. A single spot at the top of the draft is gigantic. Look at the Sens offering so much, and trying so hard, to move from 9 to 7 with the Leafs in 2009. It’s a gigantic, huge deal for the scouting teams.

It being more open means less consensus, so what I'm getting at is our guy might not be on antibodies radar anyways, like Boucher really wasn't. Maybe had we picked 9th instead of 10th, we'd still have taken Boucher.

At the end of the day, you could make your argument for any spot, why is falling out of 5-7 an issue but not 5-6, I just can't be bothered to care because the reality is who I think is the 5th, 6th 7th or 8th best prospect so rarely aligns with the teams, it's just not worth getting worked up over.

 

[BondraTime]

It being more open means less consensus, so what I'm getting at is our guy might not be on antibodies radar anyways, like Boucher really wasn't. Maybe had we picked 9th instead of 10th, we'd still have taken Boucher.

At the end of the day, you could make your argument for any spot, why is falling out of 5-7 an issue but not 5-6, I just can't be bothered to care because the reality is who I think is the 5th, 6th 7th or 8th best prospect so rarely aligns with the teams, it's just not worth getting worked up over.

It is a big deal going from 5-6, dropping at the top of the draft is a gigantic deal.

It has nothing to do with us being upset, that’s what I’m getting at; half the board was upset about the Sanderson pick. It’s got to do with the team being upset, not us.

This board would have been pumped if we had Drysdale or Raymond had Sanderson gone 4th. The Sens, would have been extremely upset.

 

[BondraTime]

Well we could have picked Wyatt Johnson?

Are you hundred percent sure W edidnt have Boucher ahead of Guenther?

3->10 is obviously a massive jump. Thats not possible right now.

We could have for sure. Not likely, but we could have. He was there at 10, but alas…

The jump on the final game of the season was gigantic. Went from 8th to 10th, and we see what happened there.

Going from 5-7 is a massive jump as well. A guy ranked 2 spots higher at the top of the draft could be a gigantic, gigantic difference in ranking for teams. It’s a massive difference at the top of the draft. You want the higher pick, you want your highest ranked player. It won’t always work out, but you want the option, you don’t want to be left with what’s left. Consensus ranking means absolutely nothing to teams, it only matter to fans.

Picking 25-27, not the largest difference, though you still want your highest ranked guy.

 

[Burrowsaurus]

We kind of need to lose against Montreal in two games, as painful as that sounds

Our second 1st round pick would be better if Boston doesn’t finish first in division during regular season and then doesn’t win the conference in the playoffs. Unlikely though, down 3 points on Boston with 3 games remaining (Florida would win the tiebreak), and Boston having no top-tier opponents left. We are their final game, it will be interesting to see what the impact will be for win vs lose on our two first round picks.

No matter what we’re gonna have a chance to pick a guy that some scouts have in their top 5. There’s so much variation this year

 

[Micklebot]

It is a big deal going from 5-6, dropping at the top of the draft is a gigantic deal.

It has nothing to do with us being upset, that’s what I’m getting at; half the board was upset about the Sanderson pick. It’s got to do with the team being upset, not us.

This board would have been pumped if we had Drysdale or Raymond had Sanderson gone 4th. The Sens, would have been extremely upset.

And had they been picking 8th and Sanderson was still on the board as McKenzie's list predicted, they'd have been thrilled.

The point is without knowing our draft board, or any of the other teams, I don't really care about one spot. Will the scouts care, sure, will it impact who we end up selecting, maybe, maybe not, and I won't likely know one way or another, so I'm not going to say we can't afford to fall out of 5-7 since we very well may still get our target at 8,

Hell, for all we know the team is planning to trade back if they land in the 5-7 spot.

 

[BondraTime]

And had they been picking 8th and Sanderson was still on the board as McKenzie's list predicted, they'd have been thrilled.

The point is without knowing our draft board, or any of the other teams, I don't really care about one spot. Will the scouts care, sure, will it impact who we end up selecting, maybe, maybe not, and I won't likely know one way or another, so I'm not going to say we can't afford to fall out of 5-7 since we very well may still get our target at 8,

Hell, for all we know the team is planning to trade back if they land in the 5-7 spot.

And one of the teams (like the Sens) that had Sanderson 3-5 on their list given to McKenzie is there from 4-7 and he’s not there. If the Sens were sitting 8th, they’d have been offering their 1st (Grieg) + to move from 8 to 4 or 5 to get Sanderson. That’s what sitting at 8th would have done for them.

It makes ABSOLUTELY no difference what you or I think. You might not care, I might not care, but as you just said, the scouts care. That’s legitimately all that matters. We very well may get our target at 8, no team or scout wants to hope their guy is there, that’s very, very simple.

The scouts care. Teams that have guys ranked higher care. The scouts don’t want to hope their guy is there, that’s a terrible situation to be in. No team is fine picking lower in the draft.

 

[LudwigVonKarlsson]

Thankfully that surge didn't last very long. Back to getting a top draft pick (hopefully Mack or RD) which is exactly what this team needs.

 

[Micklebot]

And one of the teams (like the Sens) that had Sanderson 3-5 on their list given to McKenzie is there from 4-7 and he’s not there.

It makes ABSOLUTELY no difference what you or I think. You might not care, I might not care, but as you just said, the scouts care. That’s legitimately all that matters. We very well may get our target at 8, no team or scout wants to hope their guy is there, that’s very, very simple.

The scouts care. Teams that have guys ranked higher care. The scouts don’t want to hope their guy is there, that’s a terrible situation to be in. No team is fine picking lower in the draft.

In the grand scheme of things, I really don't see it as a big deal. Of course the scouts care, they want the best chance to get their guy, but in the end, the odds of their guy being significantly better than next in line isn't as big as youd think. Scouts are far from perfect, redraft exercises always see a big change in the order, so how important are these games really? Not very, imo.

 

[BondraTime]

In the grand scheme of things, I really don't see it as a big deal. Of course the scouts care, they want the best chance to get their guy, but in the end, the odds of their guy being significantly better than next in line isn't as big as youd think. Scouts are far from perfect, redraft exercises always see a big change in the order, so how important are these games really? Not very, imo.

It’s a very big deal, and I guarantee you the Sens scouts view that the same way. Again, like you said, the scouts care. That’s all that matters. What we think or care about is irrelevant other than debating and bickering amongst ourselves with who we want or think we should take, which is one of my favourite things about this place.

The difference between 5 and 7 from a scouts POV is massive, the scenarios and outcomes of the draft increase by a very large margin. It’s a huge deal even at the CHL level.

Whether they hit or miss is not really relevant. They will have a guy that they want to leave the draft with, and want the highest chance to do that. The lower the pick, the lower the odds for the team to do that.

 

[jbeck5]

In the grand scheme of things, I really don't see it as a big deal. Of course the scouts care, they want the best chance to get their guy, but in the end, the odds of their guy being significantly better than next in line isn't as big as youd think. Scouts are far from perfect, redraft exercises always see a big change in the order, so how important are these games really? Not very, imo.

I think there might be a very simple answer to this question.

What are the extras thrown into trades to move up 1,2,3 spots in the top 10 of a draft on average?

Then you'll get the average value NHL teams place on moving 1-2-3 spots up in the top 10 of a draft.

I would think it's fairly significant. Like probably a late first?

So if the sens losing the last 4 games vs winning the last 4 games can affect their pick by 1-2-3 spots, it could be the equivalent of a late 1st in value.

So these wins vs losses could be the difference between getting late first round pick for free or not in terms of value.

Is that not significant enough for 4 measly games?

Consider what we got for Tarasenko...a third and a 5th...this is a way bigger deal than the return on Tarasenko.

This could be similar to the importance of our lost draft pick for the dadanov fiasco. Just the last 4 games of a lost season.

 

[Micklebot]

It’s a very big deal, and I guarantee you the Sens scouts view that the same way. Again, like you said, the scouts care. That’s all that matters. What we think or care about is irrelevant other than debating and bickering amongst ourselves with who we want or think we should take.

The difference between 5 and 7 from a scouts POV is massive.

Whether they hit or miss is not really relevant. They will have a guy that they want to leave the draft with, and want the highest chance to do that. The lower the pick, the lower the odds for the team to do that.

Except historically the difference isn't a big deal, scouts care right now, sure. But in 5 years when those guys are playing, will it?

Turcotte at 5 or Cozens at 7
Hayton or Hughes a
Petterson or Andersson
Hanifan or Provorov
Dal Colle or Fleury
Lindholm or Nurse
Reilly or Dumba
Strome or Scheifele
Niedereitter or Skinner
Schenn or Kadri

There's some clear wins on both sides, some guys id prefere, and some toss ups. The scouts can worry about it, that's their job, but I don't see this as particularly franchise altering

 

[BondraTime]

Except historically the difference isn't a big deal, scouts care right now, sure. But in 5 years when those guys are playing, will it?

Turcotte at 5 or Cozens at 7
Hayton or Hughes a
Petterson or Andersson
Hanifan or Provorov
Dal Colle or Fleury
Lindholm or Nurse
Reilly or Dumba
Strome or Scheifele
Niedereitter or Skinner
Schenn or Kadri

There's some clear wins on both sides, some guys id prefere, and some toss ups. The scouts can worry about it, that's their job, but I don't see this as particularly franchise altering

It’s not franchise altering

And yes, it’s the scouts job. We want the most options, the most options is higher in the draft. There’s a reason why it would take a substantial offer to move up in the top 10. The picks and options are extremely, extremely valued. Teams don’t trade down because they want to get their guy, they don’t want to trade down and risk losing him. Going from 5 to 7 because of winning meaningless games is trading down without getting anything in return.

Who is the best in hindsight has no bearing on the value placed on the picks right now. We want the most value right now, and we want our scouts to make use of that value. I trust we get a better player at 5 than at 7.

It’s putting the scouts in the best position to do what they want to do. We want as little worrying as possible. The further you go down, the more worrying there is.

The best position is higher in the draft order.

It’s extremely, extremely simple.

 

[Micklebot]

It’s not franchise altering

And yes, it’s the scouts job. We want the most options, the most options is higher in the draft. There’s a reason why it would take a substantial offer to move up in the top 10. The picks and options are extremely, extremely valued. Teams don’t trade down because they want to get their guy, they don’t want to trade down and risk losing him. Going from 5 to 7 because of winning meaningless games is trading down without getting anything in return.

It’s putting the scouts in the best position to do what they want to do. We want as little worrying as possible. The further you go down, the more worrying there is.

The best position is higher in the draft order.

It’s extremely, extremely simple.

Jesus nobody is saying drafting lower is better than drafting higher, what I'm saying is the long term impact between 5 and 7 isn't worth getting worked up about. Would it be nice, sure, is it EXTREMELY IMPORTANT, no, not imo. I'm not losing sleep over it, imo it gets exaggerated every single year, which is normal given this is a forum for highly invested fans.

 

[BondraTime]

Jesus nobody is saying drafting lower is better than drafting higher, what I'm saying is the long term impact between 5 and 7 isn't worth getting worked up about. Would it be nice, sure, is it EXTREMELY IMPORTANT, no, not imo. I'm not losing sleep over it, imo it gets exaggerated every single year, which is normal given this is a forum for highly invested fans.

I fully understand what you’re saying, I’m disagreeing a gigantic extent to it.

 

[jbeck5]

Jesus nobody is saying drafting lower is better than drafting higher, what I'm saying is the long term impact between 5 and 7 isn't worth getting worked up about. Would it be nice, sure, is it EXTREMELY IMPORTANT, no, not imo. I'm not losing sleep over it, imo it gets exaggerated every single year, which is normal given this is a forum for highly invested fans.

I think the value of those differences is quite high though. Maybe a late first in terms of value to move from 7 to 5, no?

A late first in value is not significant. Sure, you can point to Jimmy O'Brien, but a late first can acquire a good player.

 

[thinkwild]

Sure its one thing to hope we get passed in the standings by other teams to improve our pick. But as fans of the team responsible for the draft lottery due to dishonorably tanking and winning Daigle for that, what is it you are proposing we do about it? Play the rookies? Or maybe play the vets? Or use the ebug the rest of the way out? Bettman wont penalize our pick if we do that would he? I guess we could take a lot of penalties?

 

[bicboi64]

Sure its one thing to hope we get passed in the standings by other teams to improve our pick. But as fans of the team responsible for the draft lottery due to dishonorably tanking and winning Daigle for that, what is it you are proposing we do about it? Play the rookies? Or maybe play the vets? Or use the ebug the rest of the way out? Bettman wont penalize our pick if we do that would he? I guess we could take a lot of penalties?

I was born in 93, did we actually intentionally tank or we just absolutely shite?

 

[thinkwild]

I was born in 93, did we actually intentionally tank or we just absolutely shite?

loose lips sank ships if i recall. Someone let it slip out

 

[Tuna99]

I’d be into Ottawa trading the #7 overall for a legit top Dmano

 

[h2]

I’d be into Ottawa trading the #7 overall for a legit top Dmano

Absolutely not, we haven't used a 1st draft pick in years and we're garbage. The pool needs to be replenished. Dorion tried to exit out of our rebuild years too soon and put too much emphasis on previous teams winning at the end of the season when there's no pressure. Let's wait a few years or until we're legit before Dorion'ing our draft picks.

 

[Tuna99]

Absolutely not, we haven't used a 1st draft pick in years and we're garbage. The pool needs to be replenished. Dorion tried to exit out of our rebuild years too soon and put too much emphasis on previous teams winning at the end of the season when there's no pressure. Let's wait a few years or until we're legit before Dorion'ing our draft picks.

But Dorion tried to rebuild by trimming at the edges and not performing major surgery needed to create a balance on the team.

We can’t go into next year prentending Tyler Kleven and Ostapchuk are the cure. Need big changes, guys who help seal the holes this team has

 

[bicboi64]

But Dorion tried to rebuild by trimming at the edges and not performing major surgery needed to create a balance on the team.

We can’t go into next year prentending Tyler Kleven and Ostapchuk are the cure. Need big changes, guys who help seal the holes this team has

I'd be only open to trading a 1st if its Boston's, but even then. The cupboards are so damn bare. Staios really needs to make it with his moves. Not even swinging for a homerun. Just do some safe moves that get us on base and make the team better

 

[Burrowsaurus]

Absolutely not, we haven't used a 1st draft pick in years and we're garbage. The pool needs to be replenished. Dorion tried to exit out of our rebuild years too soon and put too much emphasis on previous teams winning at the end of the season when there's no pressure. Let's wait a few years or until we're legit before Dorion'ing our draft picks.

I actually don’t think it was too soon. He’s just f***ing horrible and can’t make a serious good trade.

 

[h2]

But Dorion tried to rebuild by trimming at the edges and not performing major surgery needed to create a balance on the team.

We can’t go into next year prentending Tyler Kleven and Ostapchuk are the cure. Need big changes, guys who help seal the holes this team has

I don't disagree with that. Just for myself, I'm not willing to move the #7 overall to do that. I probably would be if the previous couple 1sts weren't squandered.

If Staios can keep the pick and perform major surgery, I'd prefer that option, which is admittedly a tough ask I know.