The Office of Strategic Planning - Tank Talk 3.0

[57special]

The "downgrade" between KHL and AHL might have been true in the past, not sure that's the case any more. Guys like Nikolay Goldobin and Jordan Weal aren't in Russia because they're too good for the AHL, they're there because they're not good enough for the NHL. Yurov is obviously a special talent, and Khusnutdinov could be a player as well, but he doesn't have the kinds of physical gifts that scream NHLer.

Spacek, Lambos and Hunt are better than Bogosian? I mean, he's obviously not what he was...but there's a huge divide there. Experience, "man strength" matter. Some day.

I just don't think there's any example of a guy who played in the AHL too long, whereas hockey history is littered with players who were pushed into the NHL too soon and flamed out from injury, from lack of confidence, or from a perception that they couldn't play at the top level because they literally weren't ready to do it.

This team should be in no rush with its prospects. That said, it would be very Wild to get a high draft pick in this draft when last year's was apparently much stronger. The ghost of Benoit Pouliot never left us.

Many think that the 2024 draft will be loaded with high end D. Far more than the 2023 draft.
Also, the top 3 forwards in the draft are very highly regarded, with Celebrini scoring at a higher rate than Fantilli last year. I think that this draft will be decently strong, and more balanced than last year's. Also, Demidov's contract is shorter than Michkov's, making him a more attractive pick.

Bottom line is that I'd be fine with picking high in the 2024 draft, v the 2023 draft, Bedard excepted.

 

[NHL1674]

Sounds like Kap may not be playing the games in Sweden, so.......he's onboard for the tank.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Spacek, Lambos and Hunt are better than Bogosian? I mean, he's obviously not what he was...but there's a huge divide there. Experience, "man strength" matter. Some day.

Bogosian sucks. He can’t skate. His physicality means nothing when he’s too slow to react. His puck skills and passing suck. I’m not sure how anyone sees any sort of positive out of him. He’s worse than Merrill.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Firstov (9g/10a, 30 games) has better stats than both Marat K (3g/4a, 20 games) and Yurov (6g/9a, 25 games) this year. So is he NHL lock too?

I think Firstov blew his chance when he bolted to the KHL instead of trying to help Iowa.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

It’s good that we’re not playing all week. No chance to luck into some points.

As an aside, watched a few shift-by-shifts videos of Silayev yesterday. He’s a big ass guy and I see the appeal. He could develop into a real beast to play against. I don’t see the offense there to be a top 3 pick though, which is ultimately what we’re going for. Feels like more of a second powerplay, first pk guy to me. Time will tell though.

 

[Wabit]

I think Firstov blew his chance when he bolted to the KHL instead of trying to help Iowa.

You said earlier that the KHL is a step up from the AHL, so he should be fine. He didn't bolt anywhere, he's under contract through next season with MN. GMBG let him go or sent him to the KHL.

Really, GMBG dumps players almost immediately when he's mad at them. He doesn't sit on them for years.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I don’t see how this team gets better anytime soon, certainly not next year since the money we thought we were getting has been distributed to players leaving their prime. Maybe we’re better the year after with all the money that comes available, but I want to consider the realistic scenario that Kaprizov is not here long term.

2025-26 Lines:
Boldy-Rossi-Yurov
Ohgren-Ek-XXXX
Heidt-Ek-Hartman
Foligno-Khusnutdinov-Stramel

Brodin-Faber
Lambos-Spurgeon
Peart-xxxx

Wallstedt
Gus

Surely we’ll fill in some of the blanks through free agency (hopefully not a bunch of bad deals), but does anyone think that’s not a mid to fringe playoff off team at best?

I think it’s so important that we get what it feels like we’ve been looking for our entire existence in the next couple of draft: top of the lineup talent, regardless of position.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

I don’t see how this team gets better anytime soon, certainly not next year since the money we thought we were getting has been distributed to players leaving their prime. Maybe we’re better the year after with all the money that comes available, but I want to consider the realistic scenario that Kaprizov is not here long term.

2025-26 Lines:
Boldy-Rossi-Yurov
Ohgren-Ek-XXXX
Heidt-Ek-Hartman
Foligno-Khusnutdinov-Stramel

Brodin-Faber
Lambos-Spurgeon
Peart-xxxx

Wallstedt
Gus

Surely we’ll fill in some of the blanks through free agency (hopefully not a bunch of bad deals), but does anyone think that’s not a mid to fringe playoff off team at best?

I think it’s so important that we get what it feels like we’ve been looking for our entire existence in the next couple of draft: top of the lineup talent, regardless of position.

Currently, I have Kaprizov staying/leaving as basically a 50/50 deal right now. However, the 50% that has him staying, I'd say there's a 95% chance of the contract that it will take to do it being extremely hard to stomach.

So, essentially ~1% chance that he stays here on a reasonable extension.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Currently, I have Kaprizov staying/leaving as basically a 50/50 deal right now. However, the 50% that has him staying, I'd say there's a 95% chance of the contract that it will take to do it being extremely hard to stomach.

I truly believe that if we’re going to convince Kaprizov to stay, we’re going to have to make him the highest paid player in the NHL, or very close to it. I love the player and think he’s a top 20ish player in the league, but it just doesn’t seem like a smart move to me. It’s an unenviable position that Guerin is in.

 

[Sweetnut]

I don’t see how this team gets better anytime soon, certainly not next year since the money we thought we were getting has been distributed to players leaving their prime. Maybe we’re better the year after with all the money that comes available, but I want to consider the realistic scenario that Kaprizov is not here long term.

2025-26 Lines:
Boldy-Rossi-Yurov
Ohgren-Ek-XXXX
Heidt-Ek-Hartman
Foligno-Khusnutdinov-Stramel

Brodin-Faber
Lambos-Spurgeon
Peart-xxxx

Wallstedt
Gus

Surely we’ll fill in some of the blanks through free agency (hopefully not a bunch of bad deals), but does anyone think that’s not a mid to fringe playoff off team at best?

I think it’s so important that we get what it feels like we’ve been looking for our entire existence in the next couple of draft: top of the lineup talent, regardless of position.

I´m all for double shifting Ek.

 

[Wabit]

I truly believe that if we’re going to convince Kaprizov to stay, we’re going to have to make him the highest paid player in the NHL, or very close to it. I love the player and think he’s a top 20ish player in the league, but it just doesn’t seem like a smart move to me. It’s an unenviable position that Guerin is in.

I don't even think making him the highest paid player in the league makes him stay. If the team isn't going to contend for a Cup then I think he bolts for a team that will.

 

[keppel146]

I don’t see how this team gets better anytime soon, certainly not next year since the money we thought we were getting has been distributed to players leaving their prime. Maybe we’re better the year after with all the money that comes available, but I want to consider the realistic scenario that Kaprizov is not here long term.

2025-26 Lines:
Boldy-Rossi-Yurov
Ohgren-Ek-XXXX
Heidt-Ek-Hartman
Foligno-Khusnutdinov-Stramel

Brodin-Faber
Lambos-Spurgeon
Peart-xxxx

Wallstedt
Gus

Surely we’ll fill in some of the blanks through free agency (hopefully not a bunch of bad deals), but does anyone think that’s not a mid to fringe playoff off team at best?

I think it’s so important that we get what it feels like we’ve been looking for our entire existence in the next couple of draft: top of the lineup talent, regardless of position.

Hopefully we could add a top 4 D and top 6 forward through both FA and Kap trade. Maybe NYR or Carolina would take Kap and have pieces we’d want.

 

[TaLoN]

Their development is already being harmed playing on Iowa.

How so?

 

[Digitalbooya]

You said earlier that the KHL is a step up from the AHL, so he should be fine. He didn't bolt anywhere, he's under contract through next season with MN. GMBG let him go or sent him to the KHL.

Really, GMBG dumps players almost immediately when he's mad at them. He doesn't sit on them for years.

I mean, if you want to ignore that he bailed on his team that’s on you.

 

[Wabit]

I mean, if you want to ignore that he bailed on his team that’s on you.

So he went home to KHL, big deal? I'd bail on the Iowa team too if I had a better situation to go to. The team wasn't good, the coach is now gone, and I don't know if the pay is better that the $70k he was set to make in the AHL. There also isn't a track record of Russian players doing well in the WIld system.

It still ignores the fact GMBG has dumped players quickly he was unhappy with. Mennel, Talbot, Sturm, Addison, Greenway, Jost (waivers?), Fiala, Staal, Parise, Suter, etc. There isn't anyone that lasted more than a season if he was mad/unhappy with a player.

It's simply not worth taking up a 50 man roster spot on a player loaned to a different league if there isn't a future for him. Otherwise he should have gone the unconditional waivers for contract termination route.

 

[Digitalbooya]

So he went home to KHL, big deal? I'd bail on the Iowa team too if I had a better situation to go to. The team wasn't good, the coach is now gone, and I don't know if the pay is better that the $70k he was set to make in the AHL. There also isn't a track record of Russian players doing well in the WIld system.

Firstov bailing taught me:

1) When adversity hits he folds.
2) He is untrustworthy
3) He is unreliable

Deciding to play in the KHL is one thing. Going through training camp and starting the season with Iowa only to bail after 1 game to go to Russia is another. Especially after he played three seasons for the University of Connecticut prior and a season in the USHL before that.

 

[AKL]

I don't feel like Firstov choosing to go play in the KHL over the AHL is that big of a deal. He'll either come back when/if he's good enough, or he won't be good enough. Either way, I don't think it matters much. Besides, if he had stayed here, he probably doesn't get the call up over Walker/Lettieri anyway, so it's not like we'd be able to see what he looks like in the NHL.

Our top three forward prospects right now are all developing in Europe so what's the problem if Firstov does too?

 

[Digitalbooya]

I don't feel like Firstov choosing to go play in the KHL over the AHL is that big of a deal. He'll either come back when/if he's good enough, or he won't be good enough. Either way, I don't think it matters much. Besides, if he had stayed here, he probably doesn't get the call up over Walker/Lettieri anyway, so it's not like we'd be able to see what he looks like in the NHL.

Our top three forward prospects right now are all developing in Europe so what's the problem if Firstov does too?

On the contrary, he probably would have had time in the NHL last year and been given a decent shot to make the team this season. We will never know because he bailed.

 

[AKL]

On the contrary, he probably would have had time in the NHL last year and been given a decent shot to make the team this season. We will never know because he bailed.

The way they've handled other prospects? I really highly doubt it. Rossi wasn't given a decent shot at anything last year, and he was a better player than Firstov was. This year the team was the team, there weren't going to be any surprises. And we see their refusal to call up a guy like Beckman, even when Boldy was out they called up a fourth liner in Lettieri and even tried Maroon in the top six for a while. Hunt played very little up until his 5th game, and then they sent him back afterwards, he probably doesn't play in Sweden unless there are injuries. There's just no reason to believe this GM would have called him up or that the coach would have played him for any meaningful minutes in a position to succeed.

But even if he did get a game or two here or there the last two seasons, he's still not a full time NHL player at this point, so there's virtually no harm in letting him develop in Europe. You yourself have, at various times, indicated that you think Yurov and Khusnutdinov will both make the team next year coming straight from the KHL, so why does Firstov need to be in the AHL at all?

 

[f7ben]

We must embrace the tank!! We have the best tank commander the franchise has ever seen at the helm. Hopefully the tank is so glorious it ends with Macklin Celebrini and the firing of Evason and BBB

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

Firstov bailing taught me:

1) When adversity hits he folds.
2) He is untrustworthy
3) He is unreliable

Deciding to play in the KHL is one thing. Going through training camp and starting the season with Iowa only to bail after 1 game to go to Russia is another. Especially after he played three seasons for the University of Connecticut prior and a season in the USHL before that.

Maybe he thought he’d have a chance to play actual NHL games the year he went to camp. He’s probably making 5-10x what he’d have made in the AHL over in Russia. If your manager holds a grudge against you for doing what’s best for you financially (mind you this is an athlete who’s career could be over with one unlucky play), that guy is an absolute . I’m sorry but it’s the truth.

 

[Digitalbooya]

The way they've handled other prospects? I really highly doubt it. Rossi wasn't given a decent shot at anything last year, and he was a better player than Firstov was. This year the team was the team, there weren't going to be any surprises. And we see their refusal to call up a guy like Beckman, even when Boldy was out they called up a fourth liner in Lettieri and even tried Maroon in the top six for a while. Hunt played very little up until his 5th game, and then they sent him back afterwards, he probably doesn't play in Sweden unless there are injuries. There's just no reason to believe this GM would have called him up or that the coach would have played him for any meaningful minutes in a position to succeed.

But even if he did get a game or two here or there the last two seasons, he's still not a full time NHL player at this point, so there's virtually no harm in letting him develop in Europe. You yourself have, at various times, indicated that you think Yurov and Khusnutdinov will both make the team next year coming straight from the KHL, so why does Firstov need to be in the AHL at all?

Rossi got 19 games last year. Walker got 9. Beckman got 9. Petan got 10. Hell, even Cramarossa got 4.

There was plenty of opportunity for him if he earned it. If he earned it, you don't have to trade for Maroon or sign Khaira. You don't have to have a follow up trade after dealing Greenway. He's right there. Except, he wasn't.

I wanted both Yurov and Khusnutdinov here this season. That's not a good example. Khusnutdinov was stuck due to contract status. Yurov was given so little ice time that it probably would have been better for him to be here last season. Thankfully, this year he is getting decent minutes.

Neither one of those two came to North America and then went running home at the first sign of things not going their way. Think of the type of player you want on this team. Do you want someone that folds and goes home at the first sign of adversity? I don't. That's just me though and I'm not Bill Guerin. We will see what happens.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Maybe he thought he’d have a chance to play actual NHL games the year he went to camp. He’s probably making 5-10x what he’d have made in the AHL over in Russia. If your manager holds a grudge against you for doing what’s best for you financially (mind you this is an athlete who’s career could be over with one unlucky play), that guy is an absolute . I’m sorry but it’s the truth.

He DID have a chance to play. That's my problem with this whole argument. He folded on himself and let other's that are not as good (Walker, Beckman, Petan, Cramarossa) get NHL minutes that should have been his.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

He DID have a chance to play. That's my problem with this whole argument. He folded on himself and let other's that are not as good (Walker, Beckman, Petan, Cramarossa) get NHL minutes that should have been his.

He knew he wasn’t going to get looks over those guys. That’s not how Billy rolls.

 

[AKL]

Rossi got 19 games last year. Walker got 9. Beckman got 9. Petan got 10. Hell, even Cramarossa got 4.

There was plenty of opportunity for him if he earned it. If he earned it, you don't have to trade for Maroon or sign Khaira. You don't have to have a follow up trade after dealing Greenway. He's right there. Except, he wasn't.

I wanted both Yurov and Khusnutdinov here this season. That's not a good example. Khusnutdinov was stuck due to contract status. Yurov was given so little ice time that it probably would have been better for him to be here last season. Thankfully, this year he is getting decent minutes.

Neither one of those two came to North America and then went running home at the first sign of things not going their way. Think of the type of player you want on this team. Do you want someone that folds and goes home at the first sign of adversity? I don't. That's just me though and I'm not Bill Guerin. We will see what happens.

Yeah see I don't see it as running away at the first sign of things not going his way, I see it as being realistic about the situation and finding a better one.