Buffalo Bills Bills off-season part 4: Draft begins 4/28

[Harry Kakalovich]

The Steelers run efficiency didn’t get much better with Harris versus the guys he replaced, if that answers your question.

The big issue with drafting a RB round one is it’s just an inefficient use of capital given how cheap RBs are in FA and how you can usually find one later in the draft. Also given how quickly they age out of being good, your best case scenario is like 5 years of good play.

All that said, if there’s a truly special player at RB and you think that player can put you over the top, ok I’m listening. The problem is I don’t see Walker or Hall as particularly special players.

It's not always so bad to draft a RB end of the first because you get to extend their rookie contract. So end of 1st is sort of better than early 2nd in that way.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

It's not always so bad to draft a RB end of the first because you get to extend their rookie contract. So end of 1st is sort of better than early 2nd in that way.

5th year options aren't exactly cheap though.

Unless it's for a game breaking type of player (recent example was potentially Travis Etienne) i have no interest.

On the contrary - i think day 2 is an excellent spot for a RB.

 

[Husko]

It's not always so bad to draft a RB end of the first because you get to extend their rookie contract. So end of 1st is sort of better than early 2nd in that way.

I understand the theory behind this, but I think it's actually the opposite. The savings on a RB 5th year option is much lower than the savings on the 5th year option of pretty much any position. RBs are just so cheap on the open market that financially spekaing it almost never makes sense to take one in the first, just too much opportunity cost at another position.

 

[Husko]

New poll: 2022 HF Bills Big Board 60

Ok we're approaching the finish line folks. My plan is to get us through a second round big board, then finish us off with a best of the rest poll next week. Results from this week included domination by Christian Watson, receiving 80% of first place votes. After that I decided to take the top 4 total. Tolbert, Mafe, and Wood get added This new poll is probably the last one with an add option, so if you want one final chance to vote for any darkhorse favorite of yours, add them now.

Christian Watson, WR, ND State: 12 points [4FP]
John Metchie III, WR, Alabama: 5 points
Trey McBride, TE, Colorado St.: 4 points
Sean Rhyan, OL, UCLA: 3 points [1FP]
Alontae Taylor, CB, Tennessee: 2 points
Khalil Shakir, WR, Boise State: 2 points
Isaiah Spiller, RB, Texas A&M: 2 points

New poll: 2022 HF Bills Big Board 60

Round 1
1. Aiden Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan (72.7%)
2. Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE Oregon (72.7%)
3. Evan Neal, OT, Alabama (66.7%)
4. Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State (72.7%)
5. Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame (44.4%)
6. Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa (28.6%)
6. Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati (28.6%)
8. Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU (30%)
9. Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M (42.9%)
10. Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State (25%)
10. Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson (25%)
12. Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, Florida State (28.6%)
12. Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia (28.6%)
14. Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington (50%)
15. Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah (37.5%)
16. Drake London, WR, USC (42.9%)
17. Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas (33.3%)
17. Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia (33.3%)
19. Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State (57.1%)
20. Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia (55.6%)
21. Zion Johnson, G, Boston College (44.4%)
22. Daxton Hill, S, Michigan (33.3%)
22. Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama (33.3%)
24. Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State (66.7%)
25. Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn (50%)
26. Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida (60%)
27. Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State (50%)
28. George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue (33.3%)
28. Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington (33.3%)
30. Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia (66.7%)
31. Jalen Pitre, S, Purdue (50%)
32. Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa (100%)

Round 2
33. Bernhard Raimann, OL, Central Michigan (11 points) [3FP]
34. Travis Jones, DL, UConn (7 points) [1FP]
35. David Ojabo, EDGE, Michigan (6 points) [1FP]
36. Quay Walker, LB, Georgia (5 points)
37. Chad Muma, LB, Wyoming (8 points) [1FP]
37. Sky Moore, WR, Western Michigan: 8 points [1FP]
39. Tyler Smith, OT, Tulsa (7 points) [1FP]
39. Christian Harris, LB, Alabama (6 points) [1FP]
41. Breece Hall, RB, Iowa St. (10 points) [2FP]
41. Tariq Woolln, CB, UTSA (10 points) [3FP]
43. Kenneth Walker III, RB, Michigan (8 points) [2FP]
44. Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State (6 points)
45. George Pickens, WR, Georgia (8 points) [2FP]
46. Lewis Cine, S, Georgia (6 points) [1FP]
47. Cole Strange, IOL, Chattanooga (9 points) [2FP]
48. Dylan Parham, IOL, Memphis (8 points) [1FP]
49. Cam Jurgens, C, Nebraska (7 points) [1FP]
50. Arnold Ebiketie, EDGE, Penn State (6 points) [2FP]
50. Calvin Austin lll, WR, Memphis: 6 points [1FP]
52. Troy Andersen, LB, Montana State (16 points) [3FP]
53. Leo Chenal, LB, Wisconsin (13 points) [3FP]
54. Jalyn Armour-Davis, CB, Alabama (7 points) [1FP]
54. James Cook, RB, Georgia (7 points) [1FP]
56. Christian Watson, WR, ND State (12 points) [4FP]
57. John Metchie III, WR, Alabama (5 points)
58. Trey McBride, TE, Colorado St. (4 points)
59. Sean Rhyan, OL, UCLA (3 points) [1FP]

New poll: 2022 HF Bills Big Board 60

Last chance on what will be the final round 2 poll. Later today I'll put up a best of the rest final poll.

 

[brian_griffin]

Interesting:

Assuming true (no reason to believe it's not), that means the cost of a later-picking team like BUF to move up should be getting cheaper.

There's a variety of pick valuation models out there, and I've never spent a lot of time on these but:

The Jets are interesting. Rd1#4 and #10, then #35, #38, #69. Bills Rd1#25 and #57 almost assuredly gets NYJ Rd1#10 in a buyer's market. Jets could move the Bills picks combined with some of their Rd 2 & 3 picks to move back into the 1st round via a team like PHI or NO with extra Rd1 picks.

Related, KC has a ton of draft capital, a lot of late-round picks, but also both 29-30 after trading Devante Adams. They could be a candidate to move up in the 1st round to a team looking to trade back...

I could see the Chargers, pre-draft taking a lot of their late round picks to try to move up a little in the later rounds.

 

[Jim Bob]

Assuming true (no reason to believe it's not), that means the cost of a later-picking team like BUF to move up should be getting cheaper.

There's a variety of pick valuation models out there, and I've never spent a lot of time on these but:

The Jets are interesting. Rd1#4 and #10, then #35, #38, #69. Bills Rd1#25 and #57 almost assuredly gets NYJ Rd1#10 in a buyer's market. Jets could move the Bills picks combined with some of their Rd 2 & 3 picks to move back into the 1st round via a team like PHI or NO with extra Rd1 picks.

Related, KC has a ton of draft capital, a lot of late-round picks, but also both 29-30 after trading Devante Adams. They could be a candidate to move up in the 1st round to a team looking to trade back...

I could see the Chargers, pre-draft taking a lot of their late round picks to try to move up a little in the later rounds.

In a normal year, it would take Buffalo giving up 25, 57, & 89 to get all the way up to 10.

I don't know that this is such a seller's market that Buffalo could move up 15 spots in the 1st round by giving up 57.

I would rather the Bills see a QB fall to 25 and they find a team that wants to move up for him.

Then Beane would have more picks to use to trade up on days 2 & 3 of the draft.

 

[WeDislikeEich]

A secret plan, a bombshell lawsuit, and a soccer match: Inside Tom Brady’s un-retirement - The Boston Globe

If Brady had his way, he would have been running — and potentially quarterbacking — a Patriots division rival. Instead, a series of unforeseen events led him back to Tampa.

www.bostonglobe.com

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I think I'm ready for my final Bills mock. No trades, no unrealistic picks (although some may be considered a little hopeful/best case). A combination of what i think they will do plus what i would want them to do:

25 CB Andrew Booth
57 LB Chad Muma
89 IOL Cam Jurgens
130 RB Rachaad White
168 TE Jaylen Wydermyer
185 P Matt Araiza
203 DT Jayden Peevy
231 WR Charleston Rambo

Flame away...

 

[Husko]

I think I'm ready for my final Bills mock. No trades, no unrealistic picks (although some may be considered a little hopeful/best case). A combination of what i think they will do plus what i would want them to do:

25 CB Andrew Booth
57 LB Chad Muma
89 IOL Cam Jurgens
130 RB Rachaad White
168 TE Jaylen Wydermyer
185 P Matt Araiza
203 DT Jayden Peevy
231 WR Charleston Rambo

Flame away...

I mostly like it. Only flaming I’ll flame is Wydermyer who I don’t think is getting drafted after a bad season and one of the worst combine performance in recent history. The only TEs that has gotten drafted with 40 times over 5 seconds are strictly blocking guys like Lee Smith and Nick Boyle. Wydermyer isn’t a good blocker, he’s strictly a pass catcher, which makes his lack of speed a huge concern. If you want to roll the dice I think you could get him late day 3.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I mostly like it. Only flaming I’ll flame is Wydermyer who I don’t think is getting drafted after a bad season and one of the worst combine performance in recent history. The only TEs that has gotten drafted with 40 times over 5 seconds are strictly blocking guys like Lee Smith and Nick Boyle. Wydermyer isn’t a good blocker, he’s strictly a pass catcher, which makes his lack of speed a huge concern. If you want to roll the dice I think you could get him late day 3.

To be honest the bottom four picks are pretty much interchangeable in terms of order & value at this point I only put Wydermyer first because he tends to have an earlier ADP in the simulators. In reality it might be Araiza @ 168OV then the rest, for example.

The Bills have shown interest in him among a bunch of other TEs. I wanted to put Jelani Woods in there but i couldn't figure out where. Absolute best case - Woods might be there at 130 but i really doubt that. I am settled on Booth, Muma & Jurgens as the day 1/2 picks. Plus i think White makes sense at 130 - solid chance he's still on the board & again - they really seem to like him.

The combine performances are not the be all/end all - especially when looking at any single discipline. There might be a number of reasons for particularly bad performances. I think Wydermyer a pretty under rated prospect on the whole & would be decent value with any R5/R6/R7 pick.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Husko]

To be honest the bottom four picks are pretty much interchangeable in terms of order & value at this point I only put Wydermyer first because he tends to have an earlier ADP in the simulators. In reality it might be Araiza @ 168OV then the rest, for example.

The Bills have shown interest in him among a bunch of other TEs. I wanted to put Jelani Woods in there but i couldn't figure out where. Absolute best case - Woods might be there at 130 but i really doubt that. I am settled on Booth, Muma & Jurgens as the day 1/2 picks. Plus i think White makes sense at 130 - solid chance he's still on the board & again - they really seem to like him.

The combine performances are not the be all/end all - especially when looking at any single discipline. There might be a number of reasons for particularly bad performances. I think Wydermyer a pretty under rated prospect on the whole & would be decent value with any R5/R6/R7 pick.

Yeah I agree it gets pretty dart throwy on day 3. Wood is also my favorite TE prospect but I expect him to go day 2. I agree on combine performances not being everything, but they do matter and him having the slowest 40 time of any receiving TE in draft history is not good, to say the least. That + underwhelming tape this season + way way way too many drops just make him a really questionable prospect. I suppose the best thing that could come out on him would be if it turns out ne was some nursing some nagging injury all season.

 

[Husko]

Damnit, now when Green and Lloyd go way lower than expected I can't say I told you so to @Rowley Birkin because he can say it was all injury related

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Damnit, now when Green and Lloyd go way lower than expected I can't say I told you so to @Rowley Birkin because he can say it was all injury related

You also performed a bit of a 180 on Dean recently. You seemed pretty high on him a month or so back...

 

[Husko]

You also performed a bit of a 180 on Dean recently. You seemed pretty high on him a month or so back...

I liked his athletic profile and still like him as a player, but the more I dove in the less I liked him as a specific fit for the Bills. His best trait is his ability to weed through trash and make plays in tight space. Bills on the other hand like to deploy their LBs in wide open space. His best fit might be as a 3-4 ILB or as a 4-3 SLB, which the Bills don't even use. Watching their tape what really stood out to be is that his teammate Quay Walker was the primary open space, drop back, pass coverage LB. I think he'd be a better fit for what we're trying to do, though his traitsyness/unrefined profile reminds me a concerning amount of Edmunds.

 

[Husko]

In a normal year, it would take Buffalo giving up 25, 57, & 89 to get all the way up to 10.

I don't know that this is such a seller's market that Buffalo could move up 15 spots in the 1st round by giving up 57.

I would rather the Bills see a QB fall to 25 and they find a team that wants to move up for him.

Then Beane would have more picks to use to trade up on days 2 & 3 of the draft.

I'm just not convinced there's any market for this to make it worthwhile. If anyone really liked these QBs that much, they wouldn't be falling to 25.

In the spirit of zigging while the league zags, I love the idea of a cheap trade up

 

[Fezzy126]

I think I'm ready for my final Bills mock. No trades, no unrealistic picks (although some may be considered a little hopeful/best case). A combination of what i think they will do plus what i would want them to do:

25 CB Andrew Booth
57 LB Chad Muma
89 IOL Cam Jurgens
130 RB Rachaad White
168 TE Jaylen Wydermyer
185 P Matt Araiza
203 DT Jayden Peevy
231 WR Charleston Rambo

Flame away...

Love it, matches most of mine, except instead of Jurgens I usually take Strange, and instead of White I usually grab Goodson. My later round DT is usually Booker.

I don't know what it is, but White just doesn't look as explosive on tape to me as his measurements would indicate. Guys like Hall and Walker seem to consistently outrun pursuit angles, but I didn't see it with White.

As for Goodson, I just fell in love with his tape the more I saw it. He doesn't have the greatest contact balance and doesn't break a ton of tackles, but this kid knows how to read blocks, set up his blocks, great vision, and he looks like a WR when they split him out wide. Also, he's got that ability to consistently fall forward for an extra yard or two when he is tackled. The Iowa offensive line and system are very RB friendly, but I think this kid is solid and will have a very good career.

 

[Husko]

Love it, matches most of mine, except instead of Jurgens I usually take Strange, and instead of White I usually grab Goodson. My later round DT is usually Booker.

I don't know what it is, but White just doesn't look as explosive on tape to me as his measurements would indicate. Guys like Hall and Walker seem to consistently outrun pursuit angles, but I didn't see it with White.

As for Goodson, I just fell in love with his tape the more I saw it. He doesn't have the greatest contact balance and doesn't break a ton of tackles, but this kid knows how to read blocks, set up his blocks, great vision, and he looks like a WR when they split him out wide. Also, he's got that ability to consistently fall forward for an extra yard or two when he is tackled. The Iowa offensive line and system are very RB friendly, but I think this kid is solid and will have a very good career.

What do you think of Tyler Badie as a day 3 RB? Great pass catching chops. Brugler comps him to Tarik Cogen

 

[Husko]

 

[Husko]

Final poll: 2022 HF Bills Big Board - Best of Rest

Ok, outstanding turnout for our final round 2 poll. I'll just note that I deleted the response that put Matt Corral 1st, 2nd, and 3rd, sorry. Six guys come off the board. Fun fact is that nearly half of voters had Shakir as their #3, though no one had him first. Jones, White, and Taylor-Britt get added. Results:

Boye Mafe, DE, Minnesotta: 10 points [2FP]
Alontae Taylor, CB, Tennessee: 10 points [2FP]
Jelani Wood, TE, Virginia: 8 points [2FP]
Jalen Tolbert, WR, South Alabama: 5 points
Isaiah Spiller, RB, Texas A&M: 5 points
Khalil Shakir, WR, Boise State: 5 points
Matt Corral QB Ole Miss: 3 points
Tyler Goodson, RB, Iowa: 2 points

Final poll: 2022 HF Bills Big Board - Best of Rest

Round 1
1. Aiden Hutchinson, EDGE, Michigan (72.7%)
2. Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE Oregon (72.7%)
3. Evan Neal, OT, Alabama (66.7%)
4. Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State (72.7%)
5. Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame (44.4%)
6. Tyler Linderbaum, C, Iowa (28.6%)
6. Ahmad Gardner, CB, Cincinnati (28.6%)
8. Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU (30%)
9. Kenyon Green, G, Texas A&M (42.9%)
10. Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State (25%)
10. Andrew Booth Jr., CB, Clemson (25%)
12. Jermaine Johnson, EDGE, Florida State (28.6%)
12. Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia (28.6%)
14. Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington (50%)
15. Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah (37.5%)
16. Drake London, WR, USC (42.9%)
17. Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas (33.3%)
17. Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia (33.3%)
19. Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State (57.1%)
20. Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia (55.6%)
21. Zion Johnson, G, Boston College (44.4%)
22. Daxton Hill, S, Michigan (33.3%)
22. Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama (33.3%)
24. Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State (66.7%)
25. Roger McCreary, CB, Auburn (50%)
26. Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida (60%)
27. Jahan Dotson, WR, Penn State (50%)
28. George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue (33.3%)
28. Kyler Gordon, CB, Washington (33.3%)
30. Devonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia (66.7%)
31. Jalen Pitre, S, Purdue (50%)
32. Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa (100%)


Round 2
33. Bernhard Raimann, OL, Central Michigan (11 points) [3FP]
34. Travis Jones, DL, UConn (7 points) [1FP]
35. David Ojabo, EDGE, Michigan (6 points) [1FP]
36. Quay Walker, LB, Georgia (5 points)
37. Chad Muma, LB, Wyoming (8 points) [1FP]
37. Sky Moore, WR, Western Michigan: 8 points [1FP]
39. Tyler Smith, OT, Tulsa (7 points) [1FP]
39. Christian Harris, LB, Alabama (6 points) [1FP]
41. Breece Hall, RB, Iowa St. (10 points) [2FP]
41. Tariq Woolln, CB, UTSA (10 points) [3FP]
43. Kenneth Walker III, RB, Michigan (8 points) [2FP]
44. Jaquan Brisker, S, Penn State (6 points)
45. George Pickens, WR, Georgia (8 points) [2FP]
46. Lewis Cine, S, Georgia (6 points) [1FP]
47. Cole Strange, IOL, Chattanooga (9 points) [2FP]
48. Dylan Parham, IOL, Memphis (8 points) [1FP]
49. Cam Jurgens, C, Nebraska (7 points) [1FP]
50. Arnold Ebiketie, EDGE, Penn State (6 points) [2FP]
50. Calvin Austin lll, WR, Memphis: 6 points [1FP]
52. Troy Andersen, LB, Montana State (16 points) [3FP]
53. Leo Chenal, LB, Wisconsin (13 points) [3FP]
54. Jalyn Armour-Davis, CB, Alabama (7 points) [1FP]
54. James Cook, RB, Georgia (7 points) [1FP]
56. Christian Watson, WR, ND State (12 points) [4FP]
57. John Metchie III, WR, Alabama (5 points)
58. Trey McBride, TE, Colorado St. (4 points)
59. Sean Rhyan, OL, UCLA (3 points) [1FP]
60. Boye Mafe, DE, Minnesotta (10 points) [2FP]
60. Alontae Taylor, CB, Tennessee (10 points) [2FP]
62. Jelani Wood, TE, Virginia (8 points) [2FP]
63. Jalen Tolbert, WR, South Alabama: (5 points)
63. Isaiah Spiller, RB, Texas A&M (5 points)
63. Khalil Shakir, WR, Boise State: (5 points)

Final poll: 2022 HF Bills Big Board - Best of Rest

 

[Fezzy126]

What do you think of Tyler Badie as a day 3 RB? Great pass catching chops. Brugler comps him to Tarik Cogen

I like Badie, his tape looks impressive. The way he runs through arm tackles I never would have guessed he was under 200 lbs.

I probably dropped him a bit based on his combine, which is kind of ridiculous to say as I type it out... but I was surprised his cone and shuttle weren't better given how shifty he is on the field. His 10-yard split (not something I paid too much attention to until you brought it up earlier this offseason) is elite though.

Cohen is an interesting comparison. I wouldn't be unhappy if we walked away with someone like him either.

 

[Fezzy126]

 

[My Cozen Dylan]

I'm really struggling to accept this, despite my mentality that I trust McBeane no matter what.

 

[Sabreality]

I'm really struggling to accept this, despite my mentality that I trust McBeane no matter what.

Beane doesnt leak. Draft week clickbait.

 

[My Cozen Dylan]

Beane doesnt leak. Draft week clickbait.

And it's smokescreen season. Hoping that's all it is.